I'll warn you, you may want to run the math, the probability of finishing any of your food tasks this turn is pretty low. You have enough food to cover for this cycle but it'll get dicey if you have any amount of bad luck.
Mmmmm math! Okay, so each team rolls a d10, normally a result of 8 or 9 is 1 success, a result of 10 or higher is 2 successes. Fascinated teams improve their success threshold by 1, so 7s are 1 success, and Obsessed teams improve their success threshold by 2, so 6s and 7s are 1 success. Dwarf teams after the first turn improve their threshold by 1, and also improve their threshold by 1 if they're on a Knowledge task.
Seems like we should put Dwarves on stuff that we'd just want to retry if we fail this turn, or wish to do repeatedly for several turns as moving them loses us the success threshold improvement, especially Knowledge tasks. Fascinated teams are better put on things that will lead into more options, as they might get stuck on that project chain by becoming Obsessed. Young teams are our defaults and should probably be spread out a bit so we don't get everyone Fascinated in one or two areas.
So, time for some maths!
| Team Type | Chance of Failure | Chance of Normal Success (+1) | Chance of Critical Success (+2) |
|---|
| Young Kobold Team | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Fascinated Kobold Team | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Obsessed Kobold Team | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Obsidian Dwarf Team (1st turn) (non-Knowledge task) | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Obsidian Dwarf Team (2nd+ turn) (non-Knowledge task) | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Obsidian Dwarf Team (1st turn) (Knowledge task) | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Obsidian Dwarf Team (2nd+ turn) (Knowledge task) | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Our best odds with 1 team are still only 50/50, but we always have a 10% chance of a double success. If there's anything we consider important and time-sensitive we'll need to put as many teams on it as possible. How this works with multiple teams gets a little complicated (I - or someone - could probably make a calculator for odds of success with multiple teams) but I'll try mathing out some of the options already proposed.
-[ ] Map the cathedral: You only have a vague idea of what's out there. You need more information on the land you're settling. A scouting party could let you explore some of the more distant parts of the cavern. Each success will let you map one area.
(1 Young Kobold team, 1 Obsidian Dwarf Team)
Both teams start at 70/20/10, though the Dwarf team will become 60/30/10 after the first turn. As there are presumably multiple areas this is a task we probably want to keep doing for the near future. Chance varies depending on whether we're looking for the
exact number of successes, or for getting
at least that many successes, as follows:
| Chance of | 0 Successes | 1 Success | 2 Successes | 3 Successes | 4 Successes |
|---|
| On 1st turn (exact) | 49% | 28% | 18% | 4% | 1% |
| On 1st turn (at least) | 100% | 51% | 23% | 5% | 1% |
| After 1st turn (exact) | 42% | 33% | 19% | 5% | 1% |
| Aftter 1st turn (at least) | 100% | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% |
-[ ] Hunt medium game: The mushroom forest is likely to play host to species of larger animals you could hunt, and the lake shore will attract them for drinking. A larger expedition could hunt across the water and come back to you with enough to feed your tribe for some time. Two successes for three food units and one trade goods unit.
(2 Young Kobold Teams, 1 Obsidian Dwarf Team)
| Chance of | 0 Successes | 1 Success | 2 Successes | 3 Successes | 4 Successes | 5 Successes | 6 Successes |
|---|
| On 1st turn (exact) | 34.3% | 29.4% | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| On 1st turn (at least) | 100% | 65.7% | 36.3% | 13.2% | 4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| After 1st turn (exact) | 29.4% | 31.5% | 24.1% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aftter 1st turn (at least) | 100% | 70.6% | 39.1% | 15% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
EDIT-BUT-NOT-REALLY: Okay so midway through writing this post
@10ebbor10 made a program on anydice.org that can calculate the odds for all possible results for multiple teams with different success thresholds, which means I don't have to do this by hand - and neither do you!
The calculator can be found here!
Each bit on the
output line like this "[team 1d10 threshold X]" represents a team. The X is the lowest roll that constitutes a success, so either 8, 7, or 6. To calculate for more than one team put in a + sign and add a new team on the output line. For example "output [team d10 threshold 8]+[team d10 threshold 8]" calculates the results for 2 Young Kobold Teams. You can add in more
output lines with different team setups to contrast and compare them.
