So I have a write-in plan. Well, not a plan, more of an adjustment to the current "seize the castle" plan. Keep in mind that this is coming from a guy who's most pressing CK2 questions right now are things like "What the fuck is a demesne" and "Why do I keep losing that naval invasion in the tutorial" so take this with a grain of salt. Or an entire shaker full.
I say we take the opportunity to sink the rest of Lichtra's fleet along the way. I'm not saying we spend six hours exhaustively combing every inlet, but maybe spare a few minutes to destroy some of the Snekkja and cutters currently holed up in Illilundr. Think about it:
At this point, we are a small band of fighters who have taken the enemy by surprise. Their levies are still struggling to shake a leg and get ready to fight. But that won't last forever. However, one way to further sow havoc and chaos without burning the whole fucking town down to the foundations would be destroying the ships in the harbor. It was mentioned in passing earlier that the roads of Thromrhold are shit, and when I look at Lichtra I do not see the face of a steward, but rather the weasel-esque face of a lackwit, arrogant, cowardly goatfucker who couldn't take the mental strain of having more than one province to look after even on the insane off-chance that he wins. So it's a good bet that Logrhorn Estate probably isn't much better in terms of highways and byways.
So at this point it stands to reason that destroying the fleet would provide three major advantages:
1. Preventing the rapid movement of Logrhorn's levies in an attempt to counter-strike us now that all the eggs are squarely in one basket. This way, his offensive capabilities (although I loathe to describe Lichtra with any word that even partially refers to him as 'capable') would be significantly reduced. Even if we lose here and the absolute worst happens, Marble will likely be able to withdraw intact and Edelweiss won't have to worry about any lightning-speed reprisal attacks.
2. It prevents his men from forming up properly. The river, and Illilundr in particular, is a logical place for levies to assemble. But removing their ability to swiftly transport themselves, along with Lichtra's flight and their current unfortunate vacancy for a Marshal, mean units will struggle to link up efficiently on the disgraceful road network. If we're lucky, assault's on Marble's column will be piecemeal and lacking in coordination, leading to traffic jams as hasty blobs of confused peasants attempt to counter Marble's better trained and better led force. If we give Marble a bunch of little skirmishes to deal with, it will make his job much easier. And he needs the help with the forces he's packing.
3. It gives us almost complete control of the river for next to no penalty. Even if we fuck up disastrously, we still have longships while Logrhorn will be trying to scrape together some semblance of a fleet. It gives us the opportunity for extraction anywhere along the river bank, and we can insert raiding parties and even decent-sized forces without the risk of interception unless Lichtra returns with a whole fleet of sellsails.
The best part is, it won't even make the locals hate us that much. Sure, Thormund Scowlybeard will be pissed off initially. But Illilundr has a shipwright's guild, and if we win and have to rebuild the fleet they might even thank us for the work. Times are hard, after all. And let's see Scowlybeard and his mates stay pissed off when their leaky old cogs get replaced with shiny new, partially-subsidized galleys. Plus, worse comes to worse, it's a doomsday scenario for trade through Logrhorn if we decide to go full scorched-earth.
What do you guys think? I call it the Cthulu Alteration.
And by the way, what the fuck even is a demesne?
