Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Being out of the way makes you a target. If the colony is incapable of sustaining itself, it is doomed and all is fine, launch a couple dozen nukes at it to be safe. If it can be expected to survive being cut off then it needs, absolutely needs to be destroyed utterly. It's a requirement for the maintenance of MAD.
Incorrect, MAD is based on the position of making sure any opponent knows you can destroy them in the counter.

How ever this is not the same as killing everyone, if some one isn't involved, then they aren't really your concern in MAD. Thus a very out of the way neutral party space colony doesn't matter. And as advantage has that it won't be on the same polluted planet as everyone else as the fallout comes down.
 
MAD and space colonies involves superpowers, superpowers involve a profoundly unpleasant logic where being neutral doesn't really exist.

Nuking the people at the system's edge makes sense because, if they aren't blasted out of the sky, they can get blackmailed (with nukes) by the opposition and used to help themselves back up, you know that because you would do that if they somehow survived, because it's your job.

That's why you get reams of nukes and plans to nuke the entirety of Western Europe, who knows what the soviets might scrounge up in the burning ruins and clogged up ports of West Germany, France and the UK? On the other hand, the soviets also have plans to nuke those places because.

It's a logic that is both inhuman and very human, and fleeing to a place that hates you more than ever is not going to protect you from that.
 
Nuking the people at the system's edge makes sense because, if they aren't blasted out of the sky, they can get blackmailed (with nukes) by the opposition and used to help themselves back up, you know that because you would do that if they somehow survived, because it's your job.
Sorry but that's just wrong. By that logic every continent on Earth should be nuked during MAD, yet that wasn't the plan. Why not? Because it isn't necessary to target neutrals.

Why not? Because once you're done with your rival power, they will be in no position any more to blackmail anyone, they'll all be dead after all. Even if some survive, they will in short order be at the mercies of the neutral powers, as they have no infra to sustain themselves and the neutrals do. End result, the neutrals become the new world powers.


As such, there really is no reason to involve some distant space colony in matters. It doesn't help you, it doesn't matter, it never did.
 
Personally I don't see why you would want an AI to be human like. Performance is the sole metric that matters - can this thing survive and propagate in this universe better than humans can ? Then yes replace humans with it, let Darwin be the judge as has been for all forms of life for 4 billion years.

Humans do not exist to serve evolution. Evolution couldn't appreciate the service, and it would violate a lot of human goals anyway. Humans want our own things, and those are almost invariably better served by humans continuing to exist than by us engineering our own destruction.

As a practical matter, humans aren't particularly fond of other entities that are too good at self-replication. Knotweed and scotchbroom are noxious weeds that we are trying to eliminate outside their native areas. Dandelions self-replicate very well, and we spend a lot of effort removing them from our gardens. So it's not like we have an inordinate fondness for self-replication that would lead us to prioritize that over our own existence.

I mean, you might. But in that case, please see a therapist.

Nah the materials strength of the copper is irrelevant, you could use particle beams or anything else that carries momentum and can be pushed off of by magnets. Copper is usually used as an example because it;s not exotic, easy to work with, relatively cheap etc. If the orbital ring fails... it's going to be a disaster, like a bridge failing, except more widespread. it's not going to be that bad for orbital debris though, the inner copper wire should be way above escape velocity while the bulk of the ring is stationary. Yes some will be dragged by friction into orbit but that should be a minuscule fraction at most. Furhter you can design it to break apart on structural failure and have parachutes on the pieces so they come down gently. It's not going at orbital speed so it will just gently fall.

Plus guidance systems to make the pieces fall in designated zones? And rockets to ensure those zones don't get so crowded that the pieces knock each other off course? Otherwise you're talking about crushing an entire circumference of Earth. Maybe your initial impact would only be at 10m/s, but that doesn't mean it can just land on my house without killing me.

Sorry but that's just wrong. By that logic every continent on Earth should be nuked during MAD, yet that wasn't the plan. Why not? Because it isn't necessary to target neutrals.

Why not? Because once you're done with your rival power, they will be in no position any more to blackmail anyone, they'll all be dead after all. Even if some survive, they will in short order be at the mercies of the neutral powers, as they have no infra to sustain themselves and the neutrals do. End result, the neutrals become the new world powers.


As such, there really is no reason to involve some distant space colony in matters. It doesn't help you, it doesn't matter, it never did.

In order to be neutral, the space station must be equally unaligned to every party of the exchange. Everyone must believe this implicitly. Or the station must be under enough international oversight for everyone to know that it's unarmed.

There's one way to keep things safe: representation. Even if the nukes start flying, people are less likely to target a station of a few million people if every nuclear power has fifty thousand people aboard.
 
Plus guidance systems to make the pieces fall in designated zones? And rockets to ensure those zones don't get so crowded that the pieces knock each other off course? Otherwise you're talking about crushing an entire circumference of Earth. Maybe your initial impact would only be at 10m/s, but that doesn't mean it can just land on my house without killing me.

At some point safety systems overcomplicate things so much that they make things more dangerous. If the dam providing you with power and water fails then millions of people will be flooded and might die. Coal power plants kill a million or so people a year, and if the coal seam under your house ignites you have to be evacuated or you will die.

Solar and wind are dangerous too, mostly because people fall off high places like roofs tend to get hurt.

Nuclear is probably the safest, but because of all it's safety measures it's too expensive and it stops people from upgrading to safer designs. Also dealing with nuclear waste is tricky, France has a good system but it involves a lot of weapons grade material which makes people nervous and interferes with SALT.

Trains derail and explode like say lac-megantic, and there are plenty of cases of cars crashing into homes. Gas pipes can leak and explode, planes can crash.

Pretty much every piece of infrastructure can fail in deadly ways, and we accept that risk in part because we are dumb monkeys that don't understand probabilities, and because we need it and it existing saves far more lives than it costs.

So yes, an orbital ring can fail and it's worth discussing how we might mitigate such failures and how to manage the risks. But it's not as big a disaster as say... A 10 km asteroid impact. Or even a 1km asteroid impact would likely be worse than an orbital ring collapse. So... I'm doubtfull that mounting explosives, either as rocket fuel or to break up the ring or both is that great of an idea. Esspecially because that system might also fail and say explode, and break up an otherwise good orbital ring. Not that a single explosion should take down a properly built ring.

Also there would be warning time, it would take about 10 minutes to fall down, so more warning than you would get for an earthquake or tsunami.
 
Those provide a major system which can fail in a variety of ways, making distance from other humans a problem. Fusion would be great if you could work it out. Fission is a bit more of a problem, since you'd need fissile materials, which are mostly on the terrestrial planets, and which require intensive and potentially dangerous enrichment to be useful. A RTG can work for low level power needs like for a satellite, but it is going to be insufficient to provide all the energy needed to keep humans alive and fed. Remember, your power source is going to need to replace the sunlight that makes your crops grow.

I think just being at Jupiter of the asteroid belt would probably be manageable. Going out to the Oort Cloud is a much, much bigger problem. The sun provides minuscule levels of power at those distances, and there is very little reason to bother, since the bulk of what would be useful for a habitat is abundant within the asteroid belt.

I think thorium is the way to go, thorium based reactor technology reduces amount of enriched uranium required, and vastly increases amount of fission fuel available because of the natural abundance of thorium being significantly higher.

And in any case fission is something I mentioned in the sense of exploiting what we already know works and see how far you can push it, and it can go pretty damn far if you go down the paths we have not taken so far with advanced proposed reactor technologies for power generation and propulsion alike. Fusion we cant make work yet, but expert opinion leans in the favor that it will eventually happen. Colonization of the belt is something I don't think will be happen in this century, if it happens it will probably be in the next century or one after it. By then the required orbital lift, power, propulsion, automated manufacturing, life support and other issues will have been worked out. The timeframe is important, it seems in any discussions along these lines on SV, people keep assuming that because it can not be done as of 2018 A.D it can never be done, even if it is totally possible under the laws of physics as we know them.
 
I think thorium is the way to go, thorium based reactor technology reduces amount of enriched uranium required, and vastly increases amount of fission fuel available because of the natural abundance of thorium being significantly higher.

And in any case fission is something I mentioned in the sense of exploiting what we already know works and see how far you can push it, and it can go pretty damn far if you go down the paths we have not taken so far with advanced proposed reactor technologies for power generation and propulsion alike. Fusion we cant make work yet, but expert opinion leans in the favor that it will eventually happen. Colonization of the belt is something I don't think will be happen in this century, if it happens it will probably be in the next century or one after it. By then the required orbital lift, power, propulsion, automated manufacturing, life support and other issues will have been worked out. The timeframe is important, it seems in any discussions along these lines on SV, people keep assuming that because it can not be done as of 2018 A.D it can never be done, even if it is totally possible under the laws of physics as we know them.
"Can be done" and "makes sense as a use of resources" are very different things. We could do all sorts of things right now, but the cost in time, material, and lives is too high for any perceived benefit. We can mine the asteroid belt without needing anyone to live there full time.

The problem for fission reactors in the outer solar system is that their fuels are heavy metals that are overwhelmingly concentrated in the inner solar system. Constantly processing fissile materials and sending them on a long trip to the outer solar system is both a huge cost and makes habitat dependent on the continued good will terrestrial supporters.
 
MAD and space colonies involves superpowers, superpowers involve a profoundly unpleasant logic where being neutral doesn't really exist.

Nuking the people at the system's edge makes sense because, if they aren't blasted out of the sky, they can get blackmailed (with nukes) by the opposition and used to help themselves back up, you know that because you would do that if they somehow survived, because it's your job.

That's why you get reams of nukes and plans to nuke the entirety of Western Europe, who knows what the soviets might scrounge up in the burning ruins and clogged up ports of West Germany, France and the UK? On the other hand, the soviets also have plans to nuke those places because.

It's a logic that is both inhuman and very human, and fleeing to a place that hates you more than ever is not going to protect you from that.

That is why you establish your space habs as independent nations and park your space habs as sufficiently far enough away as needed to be a non-factor in Earth politics. Put 10, 20, even 50 years flight distance between you and Earth.
 
"Can be done" and "makes sense as a use of resources" are very different things. We could do all sorts of things right now, but the cost in time, material, and lives is too high for any perceived benefit. We can mine the asteroid belt without needing anyone to live there full time.

The problem for fission reactors in the outer solar system is that their fuels are heavy metals that are overwhelmingly concentrated in the inner solar system. Constantly processing fissile materials and sending them on a long trip to the outer solar system is both a huge cost and makes habitat dependent on the continued good will terrestrial supporters.

Less efficient != imposssible. Fracking is much less efficient than importing crude from places where oil is produced cheaply, but the political desire for energy independence makes fracking a sensible proposition for many factions in US.
 
Less efficient != imposssible. Fracking is much less efficient than importing crude from places where oil is produced cheaply, but the political desire for energy independence makes fracking a sensible proposition for many factions in US.
Of course. I'm not claiming it is impossible, just unlikely to be implemented.
 
We discussed this for awhile, but ultimately your arguments for this were not particularly convincing. Especially as they were almost all retreads of things one sees on Earth as well and have similar answers.

As such I do not think you can sustain the claim of it being expensive in lives in a realistic manner at this point.
The post you quoted was talking about the things we don't do today, because they are too dangerous. We could send plenty of people to Mars, right now. We could build at the bottom of the ocean. The cost of getting people back alive and healthy is a significant element of the price, and it is still uncertain whether those expensive methods would work.

Sending people across millions of miles of space and sustaining life in an environment cut off from quick outside aid is never going to be particularly safe. Things will go wrong. That is just how life works. The resources to fix problems are going to be unavailable or very expensive.

Keeping people alive away from Earth is hard. Traveling in space is hard. I just don't see a point where the cost and danger will be close to worth it. Any practical benefit can be accomplished more cheaply on Earth, and the cool factor of living in space isn't especially compelling to the people being asked to foot the bill.
 
Sending people across millions of miles of space and sustaining life in an environment cut off from quick outside aid is never going to be particularly safe. Things will go wrong. That is just how life works. The resources to fix problems are going to be unavailable or very expensive.
No you see, this argument doesn't work, as I showed you previously. 'Never' is a very long time, which makes this statement much like saying, flying is an inherently dangerous activity, it's never going to be safe. Which now is a ridiculous statement.

Just like you yourself not being able to envision something, does not mean it can not happen or that others can not envision ways to do it.


As such it re-generalizes to our previous discussion, where you failed to show all that much in particular dangers that one can't find on Earth. Transports in this aren't really different then planes, there are a lot of things that say can go wrong with a plane, but this does not mean they are inherently unsafe.

Thus, I do not think you have a good argument at this point to say that it will always be inherently dangerous. Rather considering the normal physical limits and how engineering develops over time, there is good reason to assume eventually it would be safe.
 
No you see, this argument doesn't work, as I showed you previously. 'Never' is a very long time, which makes this statement much like saying, flying is an inherently dangerous activity, it's never going to be safe. Which now is a ridiculous statement.

Just like you yourself not being able to envision something, does not mean it can not happen or that others can not envision ways to do it.


As such it re-generalizes to our previous discussion, where you failed to show all that much in particular dangers that one can't find on Earth. Transports in this aren't really different then planes, there are a lot of things that say can go wrong with a plane, but this does not mean they are inherently unsafe.

Thus, I do not think you have a good argument at this point to say that it will always be inherently dangerous. Rather considering the normal physical limits and how engineering develops over time, there is good reason to assume eventually it would be safe.
Flying is still dangerous. So is driving. But they provide a substantial benefit to the people who engage in them. (Flight in particular requires a very consistent maintenance schedule because small failures in a dangerous environment quickly become lethal.) I am not saying it is impossible. I'm saying it is a huge, dangerous project with no pay off.

Improved engineering won't make the distances traveled any shorter, or space any less fundamentally hostile. Their is no reason to suspect we should want to live in space except the science fictional assumption that we need a new frontier to conquer.

But all our previous frontiers provided resources. They meant the colonists could eventually expect to prosper. Space colonization requires you already have vast resources and still risk your life and live a marginal existence.

It isn't impossible to build space habitats. It won't kill everyone who'd try it. But it will be very, very difficult and it will kill some of the people involved. We don't need to live in space, so why would we pay the price for it?

If you want minerals from the asteroid belt, you don't need to send people there. If you want to be off the surface of the Earth, build a bunker. A post nuclear war Earth will be more hospitable than space. If you think living in space would be cool, I agree, but I don't think youll find many people interested in paying for it.
 
It isn't impossible to build space habitats. It won't kill everyone who'd try it. But it will be very, very difficult and it will kill some of the people involved. We don't need to live in space, so why would we pay the price for it?
As noted in part many posts ago in the beginning of our discussion. There is a substantial segment of the world population that wants out of the current status quo, the people who want to run things their way and are willing to pay an extra fee to do so.

That's the reason I thought we debated if such a station would be feasible and some what safe in the first place. So far I can tell we now both agree that with sufficient effort and investment, it could be made to operate some what safely. Especially if more then one was built with in some what close proximity, so they can support each other in disaster.


As such the goal wouldn't be to 'prosper' as such, but to do things 'their way'. And there are enough resources out there that in principle people could setup near some asteroids in the asteroid belt and support themselves from that. Might not be as luxurious or cheap as on Earth. But I think an argument certainly could be made that you could make ends meet and still have some extra.


Which finally circles us all the way back around to Fermi's paradox, where you postulated the interesting idea that perhaps no one would want to go to space. Because you know the environment isn't great and it might not be a very profitable way to live.

And I hope as such that I've now shown that there is a sufficient exception branch, as to make it more dubious that this could be the entire explanation to the matter.


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Though now that I think about it, even if you do favor just planets. Any one willing to take the really long term point of view could terraform Mars, it would be very very expensive upfront, but over millions of years that cost would eventually become marginal compared to the gain of an extra world. A world that would then be in many ways just as good as Earth.

And if you can do that, why not take the super long view for similarly suitable worlds around other stars?

So I think the explanation you forwarded still has these two weaknesses to them. As in any species that is willing to take an extremely long term view, or any species that factions a lot would thus still cause the Fermi paradox to occur. And there seems no reason to think such species won't exist, what with humans at the least already being a bit on the factional side.
 
As noted in part many posts ago in the beginning of our discussion. There is a substantial segment of the world population that wants out of the current status quo, the people who want to run things their way and are willing to pay an extra fee to do so.

That's the reason I thought we debated if such a station would be feasible and some what safe in the first place. So far I can tell we now both agree that with sufficient effort and investment, it could be made to operate some what safely. Especially if more then one was built with in some what close proximity, so they can support each other in disaster.


As such the goal wouldn't be to 'prosper' as such, but to do things 'their way'. And there are enough resources out there that in principle people could setup near some asteroids in the asteroid belt and support themselves from that. Might not be as luxurious or cheap as on Earth. But I think an argument certainly could be made that you could make ends meet and still have some extra.


Which finally circles us all the way back around to Fermi's paradox, where you postulated the interesting idea that perhaps no one would want to go to space. Because you know the environment isn't great and it might not be a very profitable way to live.

And I hope as such that I've now shown that there is a sufficient exception branch, as to make it more dubious that this could be the entire explanation to the matter.


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Though now that I think about it, even if you do favor just planets. Any one willing to take the really long term point of view could terraform Mars, it would be very very expensive upfront, but over millions of years that cost would eventually become marginal compared to the gain of an extra world. A world that would then be in many ways just as good as Earth.

And if you can do that, why not take the super long view for similarly suitable worlds around other stars?

So I think the explanation you forwarded still has these two weaknesses to them. As in any species that is willing to take an extremely long term view, or any species that factions a lot would thus still cause the Fermi paradox to occur. And there seems no reason to think such species won't exist, what with humans at the least already being a bit on the factional side.
If you have the money to live in space, you have the money to live "your way" on Earth unless your way is odious enough that other people will actively intervene to stop you.

Terraforming is even more of a dead letter than space habitats. A species with enough resources to waste on it doesn't need another planet. It is a hugely expensive, centuries long process that requires many generations selflessly devote resources to something they, nor their children, nor their children's children's children will ever see the fruits of. It makes total sense if you are playing an RTS and your goal is maximum territory, but it makes little sense from any individual human point of view.
 
Unless you're out of the way enough to not be in the firing line at all, in which case you'd probably be a lot safer.

How viable this method is kind of depends how built up off world colonies are though.

Still, as in previous eras, people will choose themselves if they want to try and go or not, so it's not like you have to take such a risk, all that matters is if others will.
On earth, I don't need to worry about the atmosphere suddenly failing, or the planet's crust cracking and suddenly we're all sucked into the core.
 
The post you quoted was talking about the things we don't do today, because they are too dangerous. We could send plenty of people to Mars, right now. We could build at the bottom of the ocean. The cost of getting people back alive and healthy is a significant element of the price, and it is still uncertain whether those expensive methods would work.

Sending people across millions of miles of space and sustaining life in an environment cut off from quick outside aid is never going to be particularly safe. Things will go wrong. That is just how life works. The resources to fix problems are going to be unavailable or very expensive.

Keeping people alive away from Earth is hard. Traveling in space is hard. I just don't see a point where the cost and danger will be close to worth it. Any practical benefit can be accomplished more cheaply on Earth, and the cool factor of living in space isn't especially compelling to the people being asked to foot the bill.

See you are projecting your biases into all of humanity. Me personally speaking am not going to attempt an ascent on a death trap mountain like K2. But there are others who would, and every year despite the continuous spate of accidents and tragedies people come to try and scale K2.

A recurring pattern in discussions like this on SV is to treat a whole species like humans to be a single entity instead of a collection of individuals and factions with different goals. There does exist a sizable pro-space faction among humans, they are making progress, and there are no physical reasons why they can not eventually permanently get out of the Earths gravity well.

Unless you're out of the way enough to not be in the firing line at all, in which case you'd probably be a lot safer.

How viable this method is kind of depends how built up off world colonies are though.

Still, as in previous eras, people will choose themselves if they want to try and go or not, so it's not like you have to take such a risk, all that matters is if others will.

There is an almost religious like belief among SV posters that every sentient actor in the lifespan of the universe will make exact same decision regarding space.
 
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See you are projecting your biases into all of humanity. Me personally speaking am not going to attempt an ascent on a death trap mountain like K2. But there are others who would, and every year despite the continuous spate of accidents and tragedies people come to try and scale K2.

A recurring pattern in discussions like this on SV is to treat a whole species like humans to be a single entity instead of a collection of individuals and factions with different goals. There does exist a sizable pro-space faction among humans, they are making progress, and there are no physical reasons why they can not eventually permanently get out of the Earths gravity well.
Obviously some people want to go to space. But a lot of people are going to have to foot the bill. This is the sort of project that takes a government or two throwing resources at it for many years. If it cost a few hundred billion dollars to climb K2, I don't think many people would get to.
 
If you have the money to live in space, you have the money to live "your way" on Earth unless your way is odious enough that other people will actively intervene to stop you.
Sorry, that's unrealistic. The current status quo is not so flexible to allow any and all types of governance even if they aren't all 'that' odious. Quite a lot of ways of doing things are illegal for the one or other reason.

Attempts by the various rich to change that don't always really work to well, as there are always lots of other rich that want it the other way, or yet a third way. Thus leading to a continuous competition and obviously many losers even among the people with 'that' amount of money.

Or in other words, no they can't. There are a lot of people who can not get what they want even with that amount of money.


Secondly, some people do want such odious ways, so obviously they clearly do want to go.


As such you appear to be making a special pleading, that requires all humans to be willing to work in the system, even though there are quite a few humans who don't. And we know they exist from the occasional sea steading and space colony ideas they push. As well as that this was a motivation of early colonists in the old days, off to create their 'utopia'. Or even the attempted coups now and then, in each of those there are winning and losing sides after all, and in the past when it was still possible, the losers would then at times go off to found new colonies/countries.

This is factual human behavior, so I'd want some evidence on why suddenly they wouldn't now, even when in the pats they would at considerable hardship.
Terraforming is even more of a dead letter than space habitats. A species with enough resources to waste on it doesn't need another planet. It is a hugely expensive, centuries long process that requires many generations selflessly devote resources to something they, nor their children, nor their children's children's children will ever see the fruits of. It makes total sense if you are playing an RTS and your goal is maximum territory, but it makes little sense from any individual human point of view.
This is a weak argument. It doesn't matter if most humans are like that. Even a few exceptions with sufficient wealth each generation will do. (ie Elon Musk)

Secondly, it doesn't need to be an individual, even if individuals are short term thinkers, governments have at times been willing to make long term investments over many generations if it will eventually benefit the country. For instance for a modern example The Netherlands ran a multi-generation project for reclaiming land from the sea, doing each step as they could afford it, for the betterment of the country long term.

Lastly, I didn't say humans would do this (rather I suggested humans were more factional), I said an alien species with a tendency to long term thinking might... heck, what if they live a thousand years? Then it might be done in their life time at that.

Each of those reasons on its own already mean your argument appears to weak to be considered a sufficiently strong argument to hold, let alone all three of them together.


As such, not only does it totally make sense in an RTS, it apparently also makes sense to some people and governments in real life. As in, it makes so much sense they put billions in to actually doing it.

So unless you have facts showing this is all a mirage, I think it would be hard to accept your position that all of humanity are short term thinkers only here. It just doesn't seem to match reality.
 
Sorry, that's unrealistic. The current status quo is not so flexible to allow any and all types of governance even if they aren't all 'that' odious. Quite a lot of ways of doing things are illegal for the one or other reason.

Attempts by the various rich to change that don't always really work to well, as there are always lots of other rich that want it the other way, or yet a third way. Thus leading to a continuous competition and obviously many losers even among the people with 'that' amount of money.

Or in other words, no they can't. There are a lot of people who can not get what they want even with that amount of money.


Secondly, some people do want such odious ways, so obviously they clearly do want to go.


As such you appear to be making a special pleading, that requires all humans to be willing to work in the system, even though there are quite a few humans who don't. And we know they exist from the occasional sea steading and space colony ideas they push. As well as that this was a motivation of early colonists in the old days, off to create their 'utopia'. Or even the attempted coups now and then, in each of those there are winning and losing sides after all, and in the past when it was still possible, the losers would then at times go off to found new colonies/countries.

This is factual human behavior, so I'd want some evidence on why suddenly they wouldn't now, even when in the pats they would at considerable hardship.

This is a weak argument. It doesn't matter if most humans are like that. Even a few exceptions with sufficient wealth each generation will do. (ie Elon Musk)

Secondly, it doesn't need to be an individual, even if individuals are short term thinkers, governments have at times been willing to make long term investments over many generations if it will eventually benefit the country. For instance for a modern example The Netherlands ran a multi-generation project for reclaiming land from the sea, doing each step as they could afford it, for the betterment of the country long term.

Lastly, I didn't say humans would do this (rather I suggested humans were more factional), I said an alien species with a tendency to long term thinking might... heck, what if they live a thousand years? Then it might be done in their life time at that.

Each of those reasons on its own already mean your argument appears to weak to be considered a sufficiently strong argument to hold, let alone all three of them together.


As such, not only does it totally make sense in an RTS, it apparently also makes sense to some people and governments in real life. As in, it makes so much sense they put billions in to actually doing it.

So unless you have facts showing this is all a mirage, I think it would be hard to accept your position that all of humanity are short term thinkers only here. It just doesn't seem to match reality.
If there desired government is vile enough that they aren't allowed to practice it on Earth, they sure as hell oughtn't be allowed to build their own space habitats. Those Utopias you mention generally fail due to lack of planning and funding, despite requiring vastly less of either than a space habitats.

Elon Musk is a delusional jack ass. He isn't going to terrafom anything. Terraforming is a massive waste of resources. Someone like Musk might be delusional enough to throw away their money, but they will be alone.
 
If there desired government is vile enough that they aren't allowed to practice it on Earth, they sure as hell oughtn't be allowed to build their own space habitats. Those Utopias you mention generally fail due to lack of planning and funding, despite requiring vastly less of either than a space habitats.

Elon Musk is a delusional jack ass. He isn't going to terrafom anything. Terraforming is a massive waste of resources. Someone like Musk might be delusional enough to throw away their money, but they will be alone.
Your argument basically comes down to, some of the examples you gave have a fairly high incompetent level... Or I don't like that person.

And sure, that might be the case, but you only need a few to be competent to succeed. And a person being some one you like or not is irrelevant.

Also only focusing on Musk and the Utopia people is vastly to weak an argument, as it fails to address all the other points I brought up. Those aren't the only people or groups who can do it after all.

The 'waste of money' position meanwhile was already shown wrong. An extra world over millions of years clearly would be a profitable venture, you even indirectly acknowledged that, by trying to counter that no one would ever consider over such long time frames.



As such, is this the total of your response you want to make? Do you wish to reconsider it? Are any of the facts I brought up things you wish to address?

Because your current argument can not be considered a sufficient answer at all. If you only answer to my direct answers here, I can only consider you as ceding on my other points then, as I have now most clearly stated that you did not address those.
 
Obviously some people want to go to space. But a lot of people are going to have to foot the bill. This is the sort of project that takes a government or two throwing resources at it for many years. If it cost a few hundred billion dollars to climb K2, I don't think many people would get to.

Its not going to cost "several hundred billion dollars" to reach space, speculations for BFR cost to Mars I seen are around $ 140 / kg. And thats just the worlds first fully reusable spacecraft, built using early 21st century tech, there is a lot of room for improvements in coming centuries.

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Also regarding government support for space, increased funding for agencies like NASA is a popular choice among US public, and NASA budget is a drop in the ocean anyway compare to wasteful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. As military and commercial interests in space grows governmental support for improved launch vehicles and other space related technologies is increasing in US, EU, Russia, China, India, Japan and other space faring states.
 
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Your argument basically comes down to, some of the examples you gave have a fairly high incompetent level... Or I don't like that person.

And sure, that might be the case, but you only need a few to be competent to succeed. And a person being some one you like or not is irrelevant.

Also only focusing on Musk and the Utopia people is vastly to weak an argument, as it fails to address all the other points I brought up. Those aren't the only people or groups who can do it after all.

The 'waste of money' position meanwhile was already shown wrong. An extra world over millions of years clearly would be a profitable venture, you even indirectly acknowledged that, by trying to counter that no one would ever consider over such long time frames.



As such, is this the total of your response you want to make? Do you wish to reconsider it? Are any of the facts I brought up things you wish to address?

Because your current argument can not be considered a sufficient answer at all. If you only answer to my direct answers here, I can only consider you as ceding on my other points then, as I have now most clearly stated that you did not address those.
No, I still stand by everything I have said, I just don't see the point in repeating my points in each post. But I still think space habitats are dangerous, expensive, and useless. Anything you want to do in space, think about why someone hasn't built a vast underground complex for the same purpose. The underground bunker is more practical.

Terraforming is a waste of huge amounts of time and resources. It might fail, even if it doesn't, all you have is more land. If you want more land. It would be cheaper, easier, and faster to create more land on Earth, or to turn all the world's deserts into farmland. If those sound impractical, I assure you terraforming is worse.

Utopian communities fail on Earth, where food comes out of the ground, the atmosphere is self sustaining, radiation protection is built in, and energy is free. They aren't going to do better where all those things require constant upkeep to maintain. Fortunately, they will probably never get there. Elon Musk is an idiot, and he thinks he can put people on Mars. These are not unrelated data points.

I don't deny some people will think this is a good idea. I just don't think they will ever have enough support to do what they want.
Its not going to cost "several hundred billion dollars" to reach space, speculations for BFR cost to Mars I seen are around $ 140 / kg. And thats just the worlds first fully reusable spacecraft, built using early 21st century tech, there is a lot of room for improvements in coming centuries.

edit :

Also regarding government support for space, increased funding for agencies like NASA is a popular choice among US public, and NASA budget is a drop in the ocean anyway compare to wasteful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. As military and commercial interests in space grows governmental support for improved launch vehicles and other space related technologies is increasing in US, EU, Russia, China, India, Japan and other space faring states.
"Reaching space" won't cost hundreds of billions. Building a permanent habitat in orbit will. Increased interest in space is going to be directed at practical uses of space, none of which involve colonists.
 
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