While stuff like proper railroads and automobiles there is probably going to be major advancements in transportation. The same way many other fields have experienced over the last twenty years since the event. For instance salvaged rubber from Tuscon could easily be used in the production of Chukudus and considering how egypt survived the Nile could be seeing Team boats traveling it now.
Heck armies could be traveling using Wooden bicycles en mass.
"We're in a race, against our rivals, against our neighbors, against time. So much knowledge will be lost when our generation finally dies out. That means we have to build as much as we can here and now, caution is a luxury we cannot afford right now. The furnaces and forges will kill many, but everything we're trying to build here would be lost without them. I only hope future generations understand our reasons, and do better than we could." -Chairwoman Sophie Shaw, Popular Republic of Mycenae.
"My father worked in a union, which didn't mean much before the Event, the glory days of unions were long behind us, corporations could make men do whatever they wanted, they could cast their workers aside whenever they wanted. The corporations are basically gone and now, and people aren't so easily tossed aside. The world may have gone to hell but there is power in a union once again. And this puddling furnace may kill me before I'm forty five, but I go to work everyday knowing my daughters have a future because of my job, because of my union." -Jack Helleman, Republic of Rome
"When the workers started striking me and a few others advised Khyan to just fire the whole lot of them and hire new guys, yeah it would take a while for new hires to get anywhere close to their training or experience, but that's an acceptable trade off if you ask me. The workers, even the better trained ones, need to be reminded of their place. Khyan ignored us for some reason and actually listened to some of their demands! An absolute outrage if you ask me. You would think a Pharaoh would know better than to flirt with socialism like this." -Judah Rush, Fifteenth Dynasty of Egypt
"They gave us new tools, sickles made from metals I could have never even dreamed of before. They promised us it would make the work quicker, this was a lie. The overseers just made us do more, we worked from sun-up to sundown every day, no matter what tools we had. They resented every break we took, yelled at us when we slowed down, barely provided us with enough food to keep going. Every day was misery, but at least I stayed out of the mines. No one sent to the mines ever came back." -Tros son of Andronikh, Second State of New Arizona
Labor is the backbone of all post-Event states, uptimers and downtimers alike. From the early days of nearly everyone desperately farming for survival during the Cold Summers to more recent times as hundred toil in ironworks and foundries across the Eastern Mediterranean. The Rapid changes in technological development combined with an often frantic effort by many states to innovate and industrialize to any extent has left Labor and the working class in a rather curious state, with workers facing dangerous and often ramshackle conditions but often have more rights then workers in pre-Event America, though the latter varies greatly state to state.
Health and Safety, or Lack Therefore
Almost all uptime states in the early days found themselves depending on small cadres of people for vital industries, mainly metalworking and gunsmithing but also medicine and chemical production as well. A notable exception to this would be most air force factions who usually had a large number of skilled people they could turn to. Entire states depending on a few, sometimes even just one hobbyist blacksmith, doctor, or illicit drug maker for vital resources. This often lead to lives of sharp contrast for those individuals, enjoying comparatively high standards of comfort, security, and power, with some having their own fiefdoms within the large state, while the demands of their work and the often ramshackle setups they were forced to use meant they were often working long hours in dangerous conditions.
Gunworks were set up in hastily modified forges, dangerous chemicals brewed in barely ventalied buildings made of mud brick, with often dubious equipment. The needs of their would-be state taking priority over any concerns for health or well being.
This has lead to a number of major accidents, such as the destruction of the Melton forge in 10 A.E that would leave much of Athens in ruins, or the great fire of Pima City in 5 A.E, which would not only deprive the American Republic of Turkey of one of it's few chemical engineers but would also destroy one of the few intact copies of wikipedia (downloaded before the Event) in existence.
In later years, the quest for smokeless powder has claimed many a gunsmith and their workshop. While general 'recipes' for smokeless powder are far from unknown, efforts to mass produce it have so far had little success, with failures having explosive results. The Republic of Crimea outlawed any smokeless powder experiments or production within city or town limits after various failures claimed the lives of no less then three gunsmith and saw half of the port city of Cottonwood burned down. Even the Air Force has had problems in this field, the Emergency Goverment of New America having to build workshops that are designed to come apart in an explosion in an effort to minimize destruction and save worker's lives. The number of more minor accidents related to smokeless powder development are too numerous to list, every state of note as suffered more than one accident as they try and figure out how to mass produce the powder. These accidents have done little to deter states from trying to mass produce smokeless powder, the advantages it will provide far outweighing any damages they suffer along the way.
Beyond the risk of immediate, violent death, accidents and workplace injuries are incredibly common. Many gunsmiths or their assistants, are missing fingers, eyes and even hands. Long term health issues have become a concern in later years as some, particularly in the chemical industry, have begun to experience long term health problems.
These factors, among others, have led to a number of states to encourage their most skilled to focus less on work and more on training people, to ensure the state has skilled people in vital industries for years to come. Some have proven resistant to this, largely out of a fear of losing power and influence. Notably Yun Shi-Eun, primary gunsmith for Crete, was once quoted as saying "The only way you're removing me from my forge is if you cut off both my hands and muzzle me,".
As states advanced and industry began to take real shape, a similar lack of concern for safety and health became quickly apparent. The states desperately needed things like lathes, trip hammers, mills and ironworks, and any slow down risked a rival gaining a clear edge. This meant many states favored speed, both in building and production, over any safety standards. Accidents, even deaths were considered a small price to pay for the needs of the state and its people.
Of course to some extent even with concern for safety, the danger would still be great, and states are forced to make do with both the resources and knowledge at hand. Skilled engineers and other experts are rare and scattered across the post-Event world, oftentimes construction in many states is handled by pre-Event college students. This has led to a number of notable disasters, in 17 A.E, two apartment complexes collapsed within a week of each other, leading to the deaths of hundreds. In Crete, the remodeling of the city of Zakros from 10 A.E to 14 A.E was often plagued by numerous problems, from building collapses to accident explosions.
There are industries and professions that come with their own serious risks as well. Mining, particularly shaft mining, is notoriously dangerous and often hellish work, with many states suffering some kind of major accident on a yearly basis. This has led to most states in Anatolia to use downtimer labor (forced or otherwise) as their main source for miners.
Puddling furnaces, redeveloped during the second decade after the Event, which are primarily used to convert pig iron into wrought iron, are also quite dangerous for the average worker. The heavy labor of shoving ore and coal, combined with the heat and constant exposure to toxic fumes means most puddlers rarely live to see 40. The sheer health risk involved have led various states to adopt various measures to protect the workers involved to some extent. In the Popular Republic of Mycenae for example mandates shorter and more spread out shifts for any working on the puddlers, with increased pay (in the form of ration cards and various goods) as well. Alashiya has similar policies for its puddler workers, uptimers at least, downtimers, even those seen as trustworthy, are often kept in the dark about the dangers of the job. Of course these efforts largely only give puddlers a few more years of life,the furnaces are simply too dangerous to ever be made safe. But the iron they produce simply makes them too valuable to not use.
While there are a few small exceptions, most states, no matter the ideology, no matter the leadership, have accepted that in order to have the latest guns, the most iron, various chemicals, and myriad of other things, they will have to pay for it in blood.
Cultural Differences and Labor
One of the biggest sources of cultural conflict between uptimers and downtimers comes from work.
While some have argued that downtimers simply worked less before the Event, that does not appear to be accurate. While downtimers did often work less hours on the job compared to uptimers, much of their 'free time' was spent doing work around their home such tending to personal crops or maintenance. The true source of conflict stems from how work and labor is organized.
Before the Event, uptime work was generally highly organized and regimented. You came in at a set time, only having a few breaks, if that, over the course of the shift. With most companies expecting consistent, constant work over the shifts "If you have time to lean you have to clean" and all that.
In contrast, downtime work was a lot more loose and flexible, workers coming in when they could, with more breaks, some lasting for hours with food provided by whoever was in charge. In many jobs, particularly farming, fishing and construction, the amount of labor done could vary greatly. With workers often fast days and slower, shorter days depending on the season and the work being done.
This wasn't universal and it didn't mean the downtimers workers automatically had it better compared to uptimers or that this was universal across the eastern Mediterranean, indeed one of the major reasons the Popular Republic was able to quickly rally a lot of support was due to how the pervious Wanax had often mistreated and overworked many of the commonfolk. But there was a general trend, a trend that would quickly cause friction between uptimers and downtimers.
While the Event and the collapse that followed did generally loosen up uptimer working standards, if nothing else it's hard to maintain a 9 to 5 when clocks are in short supply, but many tried to maintain some semblance of the old working norms, particularly those overseeing downtimers.
Uptimers came to see downtimer workers as lazy, demanding and inefficient. While downtimers found many uptimers to be overly demanding, cruel and often absurd in their demands, particularly when it came to the summers, with many downtimers baffled by the uptimers insistence on working during the hottest part of the day during Summer months instead of working in the early morning and evenings.
Even in places where the downtimer population wasn't enslaved, this often led to uptimer abuses of the downtimer workers, particularly in Anatolia. This in turn would fuel downtimer resentment towards uptimers and unrest.
Indeed it was clashes over working standards that would fuel much of the early conflict between downtimers and the American Republic of Turkey. As most of the few local towns that initially allied with the Americans came to quickly hate how their people were treated by them. Which sparked revolts which led to crackdowns, further fueling the cycle of violence.
In second wave states, there is some effort to be more flexible with the downtimer population, trying to increase efficiency while still appeasing the workers. This is done out of a mix of genuine ideological beliefs and firm knowledge that with a smaller American population, downtimer worker revolts could be devastating Though even among more well intentioned states efforts don't always as the industrial needs of many states grow larger and larger with each passing year. And of course there are many second wave states who treat their downtimer workers as bad or worse than first wave states, often using downtimer nobles and officials as an intermediary and scapegoat.
Unions and Labor Rights in a Time of Rust
The story of Unions in pre-Event America is a story too long and complicated to fully explain in this work. To put it simply, the turn to neoliberalism in the 70s through the 90s, along with other factors, had greatly weakened the power and influence of unions in America,while they existed, they were far less common in 2019 then they once had been.
Tucson, as a city with over a million people, had its fair share of unions, from teamsters to carpenters and electrical workers. As a fairly progressive city in a much more conservative state, workers faced a mixed situation. Pay was higher than average in the city but outside of that things were rather complicated.
Some assumed the Event would weaken and diminish worker's rights even further, with some officials within the early Emergency Commission even openly saying "We're going to have to run things like the Victorian era if we're going to get anything done," but in truth things would prove far more complicated.
Corporations fell with Tucson and for their return has been a decidedly uneven affair. Individual or family control over large farms or mines is not uncommon even in places like New Washington. Indeed places like the NAR by 20 A.E had become a patchwork of fiefdoms rather than a united state. But actual corporations as uptimers knew them are rather rare outside of places like New Limberlost and Cyprus, most places being largely limited to small businesses.
Attempts were made in the American Republic of Turkey to privatize some of their ironworks but this proved so ineffective the state was forced to retake control of them within a year.
Additionally, many (though not all) leaders of early post-Event states were working class or poor before the Event,while some drape themselves in gold and do nothing to help those who were once their peers, that's not true for all of them . For example in Crete, one of first major acts pushed through by the Anax was "The Living Wage Act", which required that any paying position provide at least the minimum income necessary for a worker to meet their basic needs in terms of food, shelter and other necessities. Rachel Wilson had struggled to earn enough to live even after the Myers had helped her off the street. Of course merchants and wealthy senators do their best to get around this and other acts.
While the relative lack of corporations or sympathetic leaders has had an effect on labor, their importance is far eclipsed by two simple facts of reality, labor is vastly more important than it was pre-Event, and the balance of power between workers and the state is far less in the state's favor then it was pre-Event
As mentioned before, the divided world these states face makes production and industry so much more important. The forges can't stop, the canals must be dug, the guns must be produced, this is a fact both leadership and the common worker understands. While most states can afford a few accidents, they can't afford to have a stop in production, something many workers have taken advantage of.
The first union in New Washington was formed before its first election. One of President Lee's earliest goals had been to create a functional road network to connect most of the large and medium sized settlements, naturally this would require quite a lot of construction work. The workers quickly found themselves overworked and underpaid by those Lee had hired to oversee the project. The workers quickly organized a strike, forming the New American Builder's Union. President Lee quickly gave into their demands for higher pay, better hours and more security.
A number of other unions have popped up over the years with the New Washington gov. The Kelly administration made a number of efforts to curtail union rights but the threat of a general strike, one the President wasn't sure he had the power to stop, caused the administration to back off.
Of course this only applies to uptimer trade unions, the few downtimer trade unions that have formed in New Washington have all been ruthlessly suppressed.
The status of unions and similar entities varies from state to state. The various Air Force factions stomp out any efforts to organize labor while the Popular Republic has often encouraged its workers to form unions. And of course there are complications, many unions have become corrupt or beholden to the whims of their governments. Many attempts at safety reform have failed across the Eastern Mediterranean. Either out of government fear of slowdown or because the reforms they wanted simply weren't possible.
And there are the ever present issues facing the younger, less educated generations, with many governments and even unions preferring more educated workers, of fear of less educated workers suffering more accidents. This helped fuel much of the third wave.
Even in states without unions, workers are not completely powerless. In Kemet, the Hyksos Pharaoh Khyan celebrated his reunification of Egypt with a number of festivals, celebrations and a large building spree. Various monuments, temples, palaces and even a pyramid were built. These construction efforts saw a number of strikes, the largest of which took place during the expansion of the city of Avaris in 17 A.E.
These strikes were rather simple affairs, with workers demanding more food, better on-site housing and more sunscreen. In an effort to appease the (still somewhat hostile) local Egyptian population, the Pharaoh ordered for the striker's demands to be met, much to the frustration of his more conservative American advisors.
Being a Worker in 20 A.E
Being a worker in the age of rust is a complicated thing, in most places you face long hours, often unsafe conditions, but depending on where you live you might have far better rights than American workers enjoyed before the Event.
Many wonder how long this will last though,as weaker states begin to collapse and more successful states start expanding, the changing balance of power might allow stronger states to assert more control over their workers. More than one union has plans in place to fight should that day ever come, only time will tell what will become of the workers and their rights.
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Author's Note: Thanks @ScottishMongol for both betaing this as always and providing a lot of info on just how dangerous the development of smokeless powder was. Second Part of Infulence Beyond will probably be next, I've sort of abandoned a set plan and I am kind of doing just whatever I have passion to write about with AoR since I seem to be more productive when I do it that way.
"When the workers started striking me and a few others advised Khyan to just fire the whole lot of them and hire new guys, yeah it would take a while for new hires to get anywhere close to their training or experience, but that's an acceptable trade off if you ask me. The workers, even the better trained ones, need to be reminded of their place. Khyan ignored us for some reason and actually listened to some of their demands! An absolute outrage if you ask me. You would think a Pharaoh would know better than to flirt with socialism like this." -Judah Rush, Fifteenth Dynasty of Egypt
Sir, you do realize you are a minority elite existing on top of a native majority that already actively resents said minority elite, right? You fire all the strikers and there'll be riots. In fact, I'm pretty sure just the general Egyptian culture would place the responsibility for a strike as "someone higher up in the chain disrupted the order of things" even under a native Egyptian Pharaoh, so public opinion would be on their side even more.
Also, do you think those giant monuments were easy to make?
Sir, you do realize you are a minority elite existing on top of a native majority that already actively resents said minority elite, right? You fire all the strikers and there'll be riots. In fact, I'm pretty sure just the general Egyptian culture would place the responsibility for a strike as "someone higher up in the chain disrupted the order of things" even under a native Egyptian Pharaoh, so public opinion would be on their side even more.
Also, do you think those giant monuments were easy to make?
I suppose it doesn't help that the average American perception of "Pharaoh" is "utterly unquestioned God-King whose word is law", when in actuality, the Hyksos position is waaaay more delicate than that.
People like this don't actually care about that kind of stuff, or acknowledge that it even exists. They think workers, (the people who ensure he gets to enjoy his life) should just do as they are told and be happy to just have a job.
They don't wish to understand what goes on in the workers day or how things are done, they just want stuff done and workers not to complain
People like this don't actually care about that kind of stuff, or acknowledge that it even exists. They think workers, (the people who ensure he gets to enjoy his life) should just do as they are told and be happy to just have a job.
They don't wish to understand what goes on in the workers day or how things are done, they just want stuff done and workers not to complain
There is a distinct kind of mentality among some people that basically Companies even giving people jobs is a "Kindness" and the workers should be grateful they even have a job at all, which is nonsense, the job exists because the company needs those duties performed, the job is something employer and employee both need.
That kind of mentality generally just doesn't work here because basically any state that's not coming apart at the seems is desperately trying to build more, educate more, have more, etc. And when you only have a few ironworks in your entire country in that sort of situation, the works cotton on quickly that the state needs them as much as they might need the job.
Crete has a lot of advantages over other countries:
- A large merchant class that preceded the Event, and is endowed with all the knowledge, manpower and ships that it entails.
– Excellent leadership in the figure of warlord Rachael Wilson and her clique.
– Talented workforce and administration: Rachel had the good fortune to arrive at the island with others who knew what they were doing, but more than that, she was very generous with incentives from the start, which allowed her realm to, basically, braindrain talent away from American states in Anatolia.
– Positioning: Crete controls Sicily now, and thus, has as stranglehold on trade and colonization for the Western Mediterranean and beyond.
All that being said (and please don't take this as flaming), I'm having trouble understanding how they could be at the cutting edge of technological development: the best ships, city lights, the first to make a hot air balloon (if I'm not mistaken), a top tier weapons industry, etc.
Wealth? Sure. All trade, coming from the Aegean and Black Sea, goes to either to Egypt or passes through Crete. But how can they compete with the first wave states on innovation?
The Air Force had first pick in all the best talent after the Event, and New Washington has a massive uptimer population, with near universal schooling, and as of recent, even a proper university. So, surely, one of these places would lead, by a fair margin, in the field of technology, no?
Or maybe I'm getting it wrong, and the Cretans have focused their efforts on keeping parity on military technology only, to the detriment of everything else?
But one thing is for sure, a country can only go so far by depending on foreign talent, and it was explicitly mentioned that education in Crete was restricted to the Americans and the very well off.
Anyway, I love your work! Binged the whole thing in a few days. So, please don't take my question the wrong way! 🙏 I, really, just want to make sense of it all.
How messed up would uptimer theology be after the the Event?
Cause I imagine the whole thing would've thrown a huge spanner in how religions like Christianity and Islam though of themselves.
Like, would the Sunni-Shi'a split still apply? Can you have successors to someone who hasn't been born yet?
Or what about Christianity? Would the idea of Jesus sacrificing Himself for our salvation still count retroactively if you've been dragged back to a time period where he hasn't done so yet? And if not would that mean that nobody can really be saved until He sacrifices Himself a second time? Would it somehow mean Uptimers can "find Jesus" but Downimers would have to wait? Or would it only "count" for uptimers who were already believers prior to betting ISOT'd and all other Uptimers would have to wait along with the Downtimers?
Combine all that with the fact that a lot of these new settlements might be relatively isolated and filled with frightened people in a whole new environment plus a dash of Downtimer syncretism and it seems like you've got a recipe for a whole mess of exciting new religious offshoots.
From the sound of it the Air Force is a basket case where every faction hates the other, and everyone eles hates them. They had a large rebellion which caused the New Pueblo to form and the natives hate them as well. So thats going to cause them massive problems. So they have to deal with large amounts of instability
New Washington could have be doing even better if it wasn't for chards and his successors actions, not only that they have to deal with the natives who hate them. Even then they are one of the stronger powers out their
All that being said (and please don't take this as flaming), I'm having trouble understanding how they could be at the cutting edge of technological development: the best ships, city lights, the first to make a hot air balloon (if I'm not mistaken), a top tier weapons industry, etc.
Wealth? Sure. All trade, coming from the Aegean and Black Sea, goes to either to Egypt or passes through Crete. But how can they compete with the first wave states on innovation?
The Air Force had first pick in all the best talent after the Event, and New Washington has a massive uptimer population, with near universal schooling, and as of recent, even a proper university. So, surely, one of these places would lead, by a fair margin, in the field of technology, no?
Or maybe I'm getting it wrong, and the Cretans have focused their efforts on keeping parity on military technology only, to the detriment of everything else?
But one thing is for sure, a country can only go so far by depending on foreign talent, and it was explicitly mentioned that education in Crete was restricted to the Americans and the very well off.
Anyway, I love your work! Binged the whole thing in a few days. So, please don't take my question the wrong way! 🙏 I, really, just want to make sense of it all.
I do think I overstated the education thing, the best education is basically gated but as later updates have mentioned, almost all states are desperate for at least a semi-educated workforce.
And I don't think Crete is the leader in tech, leader in Naval tech sure, they absolutely are committed to naval surpermacy because they believer they need it but other states have city lights, and better weapons. Heck, New Washington scares Crete to a certain extent, if they didn't, Crete would have made a go at claiming Malta.
Air Force would absolutely be top tier in terms of tech were it not for the infighting and revolts, and even still they have rather good guns.
It's actually kind of amazing how bad a leader Monthan is, so I can't wait to find out more about how Macedon and Thrace have become a dumpster fire. lol
Seriously, somehow the Air Force has been more prone to internal secession than actual revolutionary socialists, with all their ideological bickering.
And I don't think Crete is the leader in tech, leader in Naval tech sure, they absolutely are committed to naval surpermacy because they believer they need it but other states have city lights, and better weapons. Heck, New Washington scares Crete to a certain extent, if they didn't, Crete would have made a go at claiming Malta.
Yeah, that makes sense. Although, Crete must be suffering from a chronic lack of uptime skills in many areas. Because, really, they aren't just building a ship industry from scratch. That empire they've recently conquered all but demands a high number of literate people to serve the crown as bureaucrats. All of this is built on the backs of only a few thousand immigrants. Not to mention whoever is involved as a full-time educator.
On another note, I don't think the leadership in Washington is, really, that interested in being a naval power right now. Because their goal, rightly so, in my opinion, is to take advantage of the fragmentation in Anatolia proper to expand into the largest contiguous state in the region, but for that, they'll need a professional army, not a navy.
I think the Mormons are the clear religious winners of the Event.
Not only have they formed their own state in a region with little competition, in one of the most fertile pieces of land in all of Europe, with a large navigable river to spread the religion further, but also, their Messiah has just become a great deal more attractive, because, honestly, who can deny the spiritual credentials of a fully American prophet, when God himself has singled out the American people for Bronze Age Hegemony.
The Event would actually fit rather nicely into a reformed Mormon religion (reformed in the sense that someone will have to write a proper theological explanation for the event ASAP, so they can make it into a holy text).
I think the Mormons are the clear religious winners of the Event.
Not only have they formed their own state in a region with little competition, in one of the most fertile pieces of land in all of Europe, with a large navigable river to spread the religion further, but also, their Messiah has just become a great deal more attractive, because, honestly, who can deny the spiritual credentials of a fully American prophet, when God himself has singled out the American people for Bronze Age Hegemony.
The Event would actually fit rather nicely into a reformed Mormon religion (reformed in the sense that someone will have to write a proper theological explanation for the event ASAP, so they can make it into a holy text).
Both have their advantages in this new climate, and both have a surprising history of being adaptive to circumstance given their occasional attitudes, more important than that though they both have (iirc) state backing in one form or another. The question of course is whether they remain united and well... long term I have doubts for the both of them.
Maybe the Catholics could manage it if they form a council or elect a pope/temp-pope/literally any united leadership
Which still surprises me. Even if I get it from a narrative perspective... don't want them curbstomping everyone else. You'd expect them to be the most well put together of uptimer factions.
Which still surprises me. Even if I get it from a narrative perspective... don't want them curbstomping everyone else. You'd expect them to be the most well put together of uptimer factions.
That will be explained when we get to them but basically the Event messed up chain of command and uh, the air force in particularly has issues IRL with some rather extreme Christian beliefs being far more common then you would expect, those two issues combined in a very ugly way.
Yeah, that makes sense. Although, Crete must be suffering from a chronic lack of uptime skills in many areas. Because, really, they aren't just building a ship industry from scratch. That empire they've recently conquered all but demands a high number of literate people to serve the crown as bureaucrats. All of this is built on the backs of only a few thousand immigrants. Not to mention whoever is involved as a full-time educator.
On another note, I don't think the leadership in Washington is, really, that interested in being a naval power right now. Because their goal, rightly so, in my opinion, is to take advantage of the fragmentation in Anatolia proper to expand into the largest contiguous state in the region, but for that, they'll need a professional army, not a navy.
Third Wave Immigration helped Crete and other second wave states a lot but yeah Crete has some definite gaps in uptime skills.
And yeah part of the thing is Crete is navally dominate but that is in part because no one of note is really trying to fight them on that front, outside of Cyprus but uh, they can't match Crete. New Washington could give it a good shot if they wanted to but naval stuff isn't as important to them as it is for Crete.
Both have their advantages in this new climate, and both have a surprising history of being adaptive to circumstance given their occasional attitudes, more important than that though they both have (iirc) state backing in one form or another. The question of course is whether they remain united and well... long term I have doubts for the both of them.
Maybe the Catholics could manage it if they form a council or elect a pope/temp-pope/literally any united leadership
Catholics have definite number advantages compared to Mormons or any other Pre-Event faith really but the Bishop of Tucson did not come through the Event and surviving leadership is a bit divided.
And we must not forget, of course, of all the new gods and religions who were born after the event. My guest is that Vanguardism and the cult of Alcippe are just two of many. If nothing else, somewhere, sometime, Egypt is gonna need to make up a God of Gunpowder. lol
By the way, I don't think it was ever mentioned, what do Wilusans make of the Iliad?
Are they grateful to Americans for saving them of this horrible fate a few centuries from now (sarcasm implied)? And more importantly, has any copy of the movie, Troy, survived?
By the way, I don't think it was ever mentioned, what do Wilusans make of the Iliad?
Are they grateful to Americans for saving them of this horrible fate a few centuries from now (sarcasm implied)? And more importantly, has any copy of the movie, Troy, survived?
Wilusan attitude (at least, those few who knew any details about the Iliad) towards the story of Troy is confused since they, and honestly most Downtimers who hear about it, are very skeptical of the idea that it's purely a concidence that the Cop-Dictator of Troy and a major figure in the Iliad, written thousands of years before, are both named Paris. Even a lot of Cretans thought Wilson had just edited copies of the story on a lark or something.
Wilusan attitude (at least, those few who knew any details about the Iliad) towards the story of Troy is confused since they, and honestly most Downtimers who hear about it, are very skeptical of the idea that it's purely a concidence that the Cop-Dictator of Troy and a major figure in the Iliad, written thousands of years before, are both named Troy. Even a lot of Cretans thought Wilson had just edited copies of the story on a lark or something.
Really? They think the Iliad is a hoax? That's hilarious. 😂😂
That must have been one looong boat ride from Troy to Crete for her to edit and print everything.
But, anyway, that's a super valid idea for a future chapter, how different people and cultures reacted about knowledge of their own future.
Both have their advantages in this new climate, and both have a surprising history of being adaptive to circumstance given their occasional attitudes, more important than that though they both have (iirc) state backing in one form or another. The question of course is whether they remain united and well... long term I have doubts for the both of them.
Maybe the Catholics could manage it if they form a council or elect a pope/temp-pope/literally any united leadership
I wouldn't discount Jehovah's Witnesses. While they don't have a state or control over a city they have something the LDS and Tucson Catholic Church sorely lack going into post-event extremely strong institutions that nearly every member knows about and is heavily recorded both on everyone's mobile devices and inside every building of worship. It's extremely hard to stress how important strong religious institutions are.
You'd be hard pressed to find a Catholic who can accurately describe to you official trinitarian doctrine. Or explain how cardinals bishops, priests and so on function and are delineated. Yet Jehovah's Witnesses go over it twice a week, and actively are teaching other people or talking about it weekly monthly at the very least for their entire lives as members. You have a religion where missionary work is mandatory where training in missionary work is considered a part of weekly worship.
LDS only preach for a few years if you are not preaching at least monthly as one of Jehovah's Witnesses you considered inactive and not even counted on the membership numbers.
But back to institutions I do not know of LDS or the Catholic Church having institutions to manage functions under direct state opposition or natural disasters. For a light example each area has a disaster relief committee and we all study how our worked functioned under state ban. It's extremely hard to emphasize how many institutions we have and how a very large number of our membership know those institutions by heart.
For example in my congregation alone 40 out of 150 are in some sort of leadership or administration position. 6 are in some sort of regional administrative position within the Local Design Construction committee, 2 are within the disaster relief committee one is in a district convention overseer.
My point being out of 4,000 people you have waaay more institutional integrity and the ability to pass on those institutions through the sheer amount of printed literature and books we have on it then the LDS or Catholic Churches in Tucson. If one of our overseers was in Tucson and survived the event then you have even more institutional integrity.
I wouldn't discount Jehovah's Witnesses. While they don't have a state or control over a city they have something the LDS and Tucson Catholic Church sorely lack going into post-event extremely strong institutions that nearly every member knows about and is heavily recorded both on everyone's mobile devices and inside every building of worship. It's extremely hard to stress how important strong religious institutions are.
You'd be hard pressed to find a Catholic who can accurately describe to you official trinitarian doctrine. Or explain how cardinals bishops, priests and so on function and are delineated. Yet Jehovah's Witnesses go over it twice a week, and actively are teaching other people or talking about it weekly monthly at the very least for their entire lives as members. You have a religion where missionary work is mandatory where training in missionary work is considered a part of weekly worship.
LDS only preach for a few years if you are not preaching at least monthly as one of Jehovah's Witnesses you considered inactive and not even counted on the membership numbers.
But back to institutions I do not know of LDS or the Catholic Church having institutions to manage functions under direct state opposition or natural disasters. For a light example each area has a disaster relief committee and we all study how our worked functioned under state ban. It's extremely hard to emphasize how many institutions we have and how a very large number of our membership know those institutions by heart.
For example in my congregation alone 40 out of 150 are in some sort of leadership or administration position. 6 are in some sort of regional administrative position within the Local Design Construction committee, 2 are within the disaster relief committee one is in a district convention overseer.
My point being out of 4,000 people you have waaay more institutional integrity and the ability to pass on those institutions through the sheer amount of printed literature and books we have on it then the LDS or Catholic Churches in Tucson. If one of our overseers was in Tucson and survived the event then you have even more institutional integrity.
I'm afraid I am very much discounting the Jehovah's witnesses. Not entirely, but they lack some of the specific advantages the former two have which would enable them to thrive.
They do have a strong religious institution, but its not any stronger specifically than that of the CJCLDS. They use some similar systems, and if I understand correctly the LDS actually have more of a focus on community organisation with their tithe and all.
Doctrine is unimportant, knowing how the trinity works is irrelevant to survival, not that I think your take on general knowledge of the trinity is precisely accurate. Missionary work is... less important in the immediate term. It could impact long term, but honestly I expect the LDS to get ahead of them there, and most of the other denominations around are at least familiar with seeking conversions.
Both the LDS and the Catholic Church have a history of surviving under extreme state persecution, indeed its how the former wound up with its stronghold in Utah, and the Catholic Church has been sparring on and off with other denominations for the majority of its history. Including being frowned upon or persecuted in much of protestant Europe and, in some places, in the United States as recently as the 1900's. The Jehovah's witnesses are not especially notable in this regard. Or rather, than are not uniquely notable.
This puts the Jehovahs' Witnesses in a bad position at the onset of the event because they only number a few thousand, and most of Tucson didn't make it.
Catholics have an outright majority of survivors because they were the largest denomination in Tucson. The LDS Church had a combination of luck and size on its side, since iirc it has about 30,000 members in the city and even then only a rather small portion of them made it out.
The witnesses? I'm less sure they'd make it in enough numbers to be a potent force, and there isn't anything special about their doctrine which would make conversion especially inviting for the native populations that doesn't also apply to other ones, some of which we know are backed by state power.
However, I do think that, assuming at least a few hundred made it out, that there is the potential for the Jehovah's witnesses as a denomination, provided they can theologically and socially adjust (which is not a guarantee for anyone), to survive long term. Once the initial chaos is over, though there will be probably some bad feeling and possibly persecution over their refusal to engage in military service in some states, they are as well placed as anyone to survive.
I'm afraid I am very much discounting the Jehovah's witnesses. Not entirely, but they lack some of the specific advantages the former two have which would enable them to thrive.
They do have a strong religious institution, but its not any stronger specifically than that of the CJCLDS. They use some similar systems, and if I understand correctly the LDS actually have more of a focus on community organisation with their tithe and all.
Doctrine is unimportant, knowing how the trinity works is irrelevant to survival, not that I think your take on general knowledge of the trinity is precisely accurate. Missionary work is... less important in the immediate term. It could impact long term, but honestly I expect the LDS to get ahead of them there, and most of the other denominations around are at least familiar with seeking conversions.
Both the LDS and the Catholic Church have a history of surviving under extreme state persecution, indeed its how the former wound up with its stronghold in Utah, and the Catholic Church has been sparring on and off with other denominations for the majority of its history. Including being frowned upon or persecuted in much of protestant Europe and, in some places, in the United States as recently as the 1900's. The Jehovah's witnesses are not especially notable in this regard. Or rather, than are not uniquely notable.
This puts the Jehovahs' Witnesses in a bad position at the onset of the event because they only number a few thousand, and most of Tucson didn't make it.
Catholics have an outright majority of survivors because they were the largest denomination in Tucson. The LDS Church had a combination of luck and size on its side, since iirc it has about 30,000 members in the city and even then only a rather small portion of them made it out.
The witnesses? I'm less sure they'd make it in enough numbers to be a potent force, and there isn't anything special about their doctrine which would make conversion especially inviting for the native populations that doesn't also apply to other ones, some of which we know are backed by state power.
However, I do think that, assuming at least a few hundred made it out, that there is the potential for the Jehovah's witnesses as a denomination, provided they can theologically and socially adjust (which is not a guarantee for anyone), to survive long term. Once the initial chaos is over, though there will be probably some bad feeling and possibly persecution over their refusal to engage in military service in some states, they are as well placed as anyone to survive.
I thought there are only 8,000 LDS in Tucson? There should be anywhere between 4,000-15,000 Jehovah's Witnesses based on how you define one. Most of them will probably survive considering we have pretty strict natural disaster plans and institutions. Jehovah's Witnesses in my opinion have quite a bit better disaster preparedness plan? We have staging grounds, organizational committees in place ect ect ect.
You know how long the Wikipedia page is on state sponsored or supposed persecution of Jehovah's Witnesses is? To name a few notable examples, the US in the 1910s and 40s, Nazi germany, the Soviet Union during operation north and for decades after they even had underground printeries and smuggling networks for literature , Spain, Italy in the 50s and 60s Greece in the 60s, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Quebec, most of the eastern block. China. A good portion of the world today has banned Jehovah's wItnesses most Muslim countries, China and Russia ect still have work organized there despite the ban.
But that's besides the point. Doctrine is extremely important at least because you yourself pointed this out for a lot of religious organizations doctrine and their institutions are separate within the eyes of the average member for Jehovah's Witnesses it's one and the same. There is no priest the average witness is actively apart of our institutions by factor of being one which in tern is indistinguishable from doctrine.
it's also worth noting again that every Witness is equivalent to an LDS missionary, or well nearly every single one some do more time or are better than others yes but on average institutionally it's far stronger comparatively. I mean statistically pew research backs this up pretty strongly considering how many members are converts vs were born in the religion when you look at the two. 68% were converts last I checked for Jehovah's Witnesses. Think about that for a second out of more than a million people in the US over 60% were converts.
Like look I'm not gonna say Catholics won't have the largest population probably or that the LDS won't be successful rather. I'm saying you are really underestimating how well and how important it is for there to be a near indistinguishable line between layperson and clergy and for institutional knowledge as well as doctrine to be studied and known by every member as a matter of worship. Like I'm just a random dude and I can tell you how our organization is structured by heart, what to do in a disaster where to meet who to answer to. I've been doing missionary work my entire life, I've talked to more Catholics than I can count about the Bible (which is where my trinity comment came from most I know would be some form of moralist or adoptionist of some kind which ya know is heresy to the Catholic Church.) I've got enough books and written material that If some alien found it could recreate the entire religion doctrinally structurally whatever you want to call it.
But personally in this scenario I think their potential path to success over the others is offering knowledge and being competent at teaching downtimers. Take the Islamic path to spreading across Iran and modern day Iraq. I mean we already have schools set up internally to teach people how to speak publicly, how to do everything involved with construction work from site planning and interfacing with local governments to welding, teaching English and foreign languages ect all organized at a city level. Brining that sort of offering to the table is a pretty decent chance at success over hoarding knowledge and spreading because people want to ally a small city state.
I thought there are only 8,000 LDS in Tucson? There should be anywhere between 4,000-15,000 Jehovah's Witnesses based on how you define one. Most of them will probably survive considering we have pretty strict natural disaster plans and institutions. Jehovah's Witnesses in my opinion have quite a bit better disaster preparedness plan? We have staging grounds, organizational committees in place ect ect ect.
But personally in this scenario I think their potential path to success over the others is offering knowledge and being competent at teaching downtimers. Take the Islamic path to spreading across Iran and modern day Iraq. I mean we already have schools set up internally to teach people how to speak publicly, how to do everything involved with construction work from site planning and interfacing with local governments to welding, teaching English and foreign languages ect all organized at a city level. Brining that sort of offering to the table is a pretty decent chance at success over hoarding knowledge and spreading because people want to ally a small city state.
These two are the most relevant paragraphs so i'll address them.
On the first, this is not as much a guarantee as you'd think. Pure simple starvation probably got most of the Jehovah's Witnesses the same way it got everyone else. For some they just lucked out, something went wrong. There was no food with whatever group they went with etc. For others, people figured "Hey I know who has some supplies and materials I can loot, those preppy Jehovah's witnesses!".
That in particular is going to be a tough hurdle after the early few weeks when the food starts running out. And that, is where I imagine the majority of the Tucson Jehovah's witness population died. In those first few weeks with everyone else whose dice roll came up with a one. After that its a lot of little things which just reduce odds a bit. They don't have as many ties to other communities, which means they probably were easy to triage for some groups when food stocks were low. No military ties (iirc) means they didn't get evacced by the air force. "Nationalist" survivor groups probably weren't fond of them for historic reasons, same goes for some of the other ideological groups.
A lot of little things which mean that there isn't really anywhere of substance where the Jehovah's witness community could emerge dominant. I do think that once the initial hardships were over, the initial core of survivors (several hundred maybe imo, possibly higher if Teen Spirit says otherwise) are in a respectable position thanks to a tight knit community, assuming no major fault lines popped up or leadership diverged. But they don't have the numbers or malleable doctrine of the Catholics, the good fortune of the LDS Church in having an independent state, or really any sort of state support at all. That's the big one in my opinion, that will prevent them from getting big in Anatolia. Maybe long term they might luck out on some conversions elsewhere, smaller and more unusual religions have done just that, but that long term isn't yet in story.
On the second, this isn't that unique, and the religious aspect is going to put (in the eyes of many downtimers) the Jehovah's Witnesses at a disadvantage when it comes to appealing to downtimer leadership. Survivors of the more pragmatic variety, like those who wound up in Egypt, will usually be the preferred advisors because if they aren't seeking to spread religion they aren't challenging the authority of whomever is in charge. Always a problem with missionary work.
These two are the most relevant paragraphs so i'll address them.
On the first, this is not as much a guarantee as you'd think. Pure simple starvation probably got most of the Jehovah's Witnesses the same way it got everyone else. For some they just lucked out, something went wrong. There was no food with whatever group they went with etc. For others, people figured "Hey I know who has some supplies and materials I can loot, those preppy Jehovah's witnesses!".
That in particular is going to be a tough hurdle after the early few weeks when the food starts running out. And that, is where I imagine the majority of the Tucson Jehovah's witness population died. In those first few weeks with everyone else whose dice roll came up with a one. After that its a lot of little things which just reduce odds a bit. They don't have as many ties to other communities, which means they probably were easy to triage for some groups when food stocks were low. No military ties (iirc) means they didn't get evacced by the air force. "Nationalist" survivor groups probably weren't fond of them for historic reasons, same goes for some of the other ideological groups.
A lot of little things which mean that there isn't really anywhere of substance where the Jehovah's witness community could emerge dominant. I do think that once the initial hardships were over, the initial core of survivors (several hundred maybe imo, possibly higher if Teen Spirit says otherwise) are in a respectable position thanks to a tight knit community, assuming no major fault lines popped up or leadership diverged. But they don't have the numbers or malleable doctrine of the Catholics, the good fortune of the LDS Church in having an independent state, or really any sort of state support at all. That's the big one in my opinion, that will prevent them from getting big in Anatolia. Maybe long term they might luck out on some conversions elsewhere, smaller and more unusual religions have done just that, but that long term isn't yet in story.
On the second, this isn't that unique, and the religious aspect is going to put (in the eyes of many downtimers) the Jehovah's Witnesses at a disadvantage when it comes to appealing to downtimer leadership. Survivors of the more pragmatic variety, like those who wound up in Egypt, will usually be the preferred advisors because if they aren't seeking to spread religion they aren't challenging the authority of whomever is in charge. Always a problem with missionary work.
While there is a good chance they get picked off our congregations are usually 100-200 people organized in circuits, if a disaster happens protocol is to get to an assigned area normally a place of worship if someonething major like this happened the circuit would gather most likely which is normally 2,000 people so why individually they may be picked off I think it'd be very hard to prey on an organized group of 200-2,000 people. (Many of whom despite uh telling us we shouldn't are armed.).
Fair enough. I agree with you if there is any success it wouldn't be in Anatolia at all, too many uptimers and too many states eating each other apart. Where I think success would be is in what you directly mentioned Jehovah's Witnesses are going to have a ton of issues in Anatolia which in turn is an extremely motivating reason to get as far away from Anatolia as possible. Seeing as how Jehovah's Witnesses wouldn't be inclined to make their own state it's highly likely they'd move east or west (probably mostly eastward) into Iran and modern day Iraq where there isn't a lot of uptimers who are offering information or are in a position to discredit or otherwise inhibit them in any way.
Now that is probably a very convoluted series of events to get a group of let's say a few hundred to a thousand or two over there I'd give them very decent chances of establishing a successful community. Far enough away that they are not preyed upon by uptimers and far enough away that they are not out competed but uptimer states.
Gotta say I love this timeline. It seems especially interesting how the world would look like in like a century, since tech has spread fast in the 20 years so far.
Here's my thoughts/speculation about what the future of this world might be, although I'm not the most knowledgeable about this time period
-I think the majority American regions in Western Turkey will end up united, probably by New Washington because while everyone has issues they seem like the most stable country in the region. (The New American Republic is very decentralized, American Turkey is dealing with native revolts, Troy is a mess with no clear successor)
There might also be nationalist movements for reunification in the new generations I think, like the movements in Italy or Germany in the 1800s.
Although I think New Washington would become like the Roman Republic, not really a democracy and mostly controlled by Oligarchs. This seems to be happening already.
Crete in the long term I think is going to be like the Carthage of this world, the dominant naval power and setting up outposts in the West, but not really establishing much direct control. I feel like they'd end up as New Washington's main rival, which also seems to have already started with the Malta affair.
Huh, this wasn't intentional but I just realized I compared New Washington to the Roman Republic and Crete to Carthage, and then predicted they'd become rivals. Punic Wars when.
Although, this isn't considering what Egypt does, I don't know much about bronze age Egypt but I feel like the Hyksos are going to collapse. Sure the current King is trying to appease the native Egyptians but his successor might not be the same. New technologies tend to disrupt things anyways. But I don't really know.
Also it looks like a new industrial revolution is about to happen soon so that has all of its own consequences for everyone.
