What about Italy and Spain?
Do you see the Ottomans expanding into the Arabian Peninsula in this scenario? As in, into the interior of this peninsula.
AHC: A World without WW1
- Thread starter Cetashwayo
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Hm, Spain perhaps, but I really don't see Italy going into a republic- not super certain about turn-of-the-century Italian politics, but from my meagre understanding of of the subject I'm fairly sure that until WW2 the monarchy was still quite popular with the liberals. Obviously the Communists, who weren't particularly infatuated with the monarchy, were a fairly big influence at the time, but the lack of a European war would likely mean they don't have the chance to actually pull any form of SR off.
I'm surprised that the Italian liberals continued to support the Italian monarchy after the Italian King helped put Mussolini in power.
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Admittedly by the point Mussolini marched on Rome, he had several generals outright supporting him and his militias had already taken control of of the PO plains as well as the country's strategy points raising the fear of civil war if the establishment dared to oppose him, Its unclear he would get that far though without the historical world war one and the aftermath setting the stage for him to be able to gather large numbers of followers.
In some of this alternative timelines we could well see him trying to pull the same thing but without near the amount of support he had in the OTL he had leading him to instead getting crushed and being only a minor footnote in history but it also quite possible he never goes down the path he did in the OTL and never really entering popular
In Spain I suspect what will might happen is a civil war that lasts longer with no clear winner only both sides being forced to come to some sort of agreement to stop the fighting in spite of both sides hating each other and doing some rather horrific things.
In some of this alternative timelines we could well see him trying to pull the same thing but without near the amount of support he had in the OTL he had leading him to instead getting crushed and being only a minor footnote in history but it also quite possible he never goes down the path he did in the OTL and never really entering popular
In Spain I suspect what will might happen is a civil war that lasts longer with no clear winner only both sides being forced to come to some sort of agreement to stop the fighting in spite of both sides hating each other and doing some rather horrific things.
Mussolini might remain a socialist without WWI, no?
As for Spain, what kind of agreement are you thinking of here?
If Russia eventually descends into another revolution without World War I *and* this new revolution is actually successful (unlike the one in 1905-1906), could some other Great Powers--such as Germany, Austria-Hungary, and/or the Ottoman Empire--use this revolution as an opportunity to support various separatist movements in Russia? Specifically the Poles, Balts, Finns, Ukrainians, Caucasian, and/or Central Asian peoples.
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Hmm honestly I am unsure exactly I suspect it would most likely involve decentralization in Spanish governance as well as allowing for for autonomy for the Basques and Catalonians far sooner than had happened historally and likely at least something involving the monarchy in some capacity.
The only thing I am sure of is that Carlists would likely once again fail to get their candidate on the throne unless they somehow end up as power brokers needed to reach a final agreement.
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*Capacity (not compacity)
Anyway, something similar to what Spain has right now?
I thought that the Carlist movement had largely flamed out by 1900 or so?
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The Carlists were still around and active as during the Spanish civil war as a minor nationalist aligned faction but they were vastly outnumbered by the Alfonsists and pretty much everyone on the nationalist side preferred to sideline them politically speaking from what I gathered.
Gotcha; thank you!
Really depends. Germany would absolutely, unless the Lo3E is still in place, then they'd probably not want to end up losing their alliance and looking like a backstabber. The Austrians would almost certainly not, they're already on shaky ground and encouraging Polish and Ukrainian independence movements is just asking to end up in a civil war. The Ottomans might want to create some buffer states with Russia & push them to at least Ciscaucasia (especially because it might allow them to do a population Transfer with Armenia, which looks much better than just downright genocide), but nobody but Britain would really have the power projection to actually help out with pushing the Russians out of Central Asia- and I'm willing to bet they absolutely would, considering the Russian history with trying to fuck with the Raj.
How far do the Germans go?
Also, does France try to militarily defend its ally Russia's territorial integrity?
Would the Armenians actually agree to such a population exchange, though? Plus, the Ottomans might--like the Nazis did with the Jews--plunder the Armenians of most or all of their wealth before deporting/expelling them. (The Jews who left Nazi Germany were often pauperized by the Nazis beforehand to my knowledge.)
But the Brits actually need to cross Afghanistan first in order for them to successfully pull this off. Also, their strength in Central Asia would need to be sufficiently strong as to deter Russia from ever reconquering this region once Russia actually got back onto its feet.
Fairly far, they'd probably support as many as they could afford to- anywhere from just the Baltic and Poland to Terek and Karelia being independent.
Possibly? If it's just the Germans funding the independence movements then it's very plausible that the French would, but the more people dog-piling on the Russians the less likely are the French to try and intervene.
You are, of course presuming that the Ottomans would care. Just invade the area in the name of liberation, take all of the Turks out, then dump all of the Armenians in Anatolia and then poof, you've got the whole thing under control.
I'm not too certain as to this, honestly. Planes existed by then, it's fairly easy to airdrop supplies, especially with a nation who's currently using their air-force to take out rebels in the West than the South.
Ukraine?
Interesting.
Interesting approach. Also, I'm assuming that the Ottomans take back and re-annex all of the territory that they lost to Russia in 1878 (including Batumi/Adjara), but do they also annex any other territories?
How often were supplies airdropped during World War I in real life? Also, I just fear that supplies alone might not be enough for this but that actual British and/or British Imperial troops are actually going to required to sustain a separatist state (or separatist states, plural) in Central Asia in the long(er)-run.