What if taiwan of Jan 1st 2020 was sent back to 1450 ad
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2020 Taiwan ISOT to 1450 ad
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Initial thoughts
1450 ad is an era of Imperial turbulence in China, with two competing Emperors at each other's throats due to the Tumu Fort incident, and the corrupt eunuchs in control of Imperial court politics...
What if, in the middle of this mess, the entire island of Taiwan (not including the ROC's outlying territories) is sent back in time from Jan 1st, 2020
Taiwan is almost self-sufficient in terms of rice (still the bulk of calories consumed), vegetables, and fruit, and without the countries to which it currently exports rice and produce, self-sufficiency shouldn't be a problem. Rice production has decreased in recent years, in fact, and with the ability to obtain two harvests of rice a year, Taiwan could make up for the lack of imported wheat. Meat is a different story; however, Taiwan has an enormous fishing fleet (not to mention a huge aquaculture industry) and is surrounded by some of the most production waters in the world which are now at pre-industrial stock levels.
I don't think that Taiwan post ISOT would become an expansionist empire, for one reason: social attitudes to intervention.
Taiwanese people are actually quite insular. They just want to get by, get along with their neighbours and mind their own business. Getting involved in other people's business is in fact one of the first social taboos that you learn about in Taiwan.
The idea of the army or navy going abroad and getting involved in China or someplace else with military adventures, especially if they pose no threat to Taiwan, would be a very, very foreign concept to Taiwanese people. They will simply just say "Why are we getting involved in other people's affairs? Why are we sending soldiers over there? Why can't we just mind our own business?!".
That's not to say there won't be some Chinese Nationalists in the Blue Camp screaming something about reclaiming the Mainland for the Republic but in modern era politics they are a dying breed.
Economic dominance, development and getting those trade deals and that sweet, sweet diplomatic recognition on the other hand is something that the Taiwanese could very well get behind.
I've given my two centavos on this, what are your thoughts?
What if, in the middle of this mess, the entire island of Taiwan (not including the ROC's outlying territories) is sent back in time from Jan 1st, 2020
Taiwan is almost self-sufficient in terms of rice (still the bulk of calories consumed), vegetables, and fruit, and without the countries to which it currently exports rice and produce, self-sufficiency shouldn't be a problem. Rice production has decreased in recent years, in fact, and with the ability to obtain two harvests of rice a year, Taiwan could make up for the lack of imported wheat. Meat is a different story; however, Taiwan has an enormous fishing fleet (not to mention a huge aquaculture industry) and is surrounded by some of the most production waters in the world which are now at pre-industrial stock levels.
I don't think that Taiwan post ISOT would become an expansionist empire, for one reason: social attitudes to intervention.
Taiwanese people are actually quite insular. They just want to get by, get along with their neighbours and mind their own business. Getting involved in other people's business is in fact one of the first social taboos that you learn about in Taiwan.
The idea of the army or navy going abroad and getting involved in China or someplace else with military adventures, especially if they pose no threat to Taiwan, would be a very, very foreign concept to Taiwanese people. They will simply just say "Why are we getting involved in other people's affairs? Why are we sending soldiers over there? Why can't we just mind our own business?!".
That's not to say there won't be some Chinese Nationalists in the Blue Camp screaming something about reclaiming the Mainland for the Republic but in modern era politics they are a dying breed.
Economic dominance, development and getting those trade deals and that sweet, sweet diplomatic recognition on the other hand is something that the Taiwanese could very well get behind.
I've given my two centavos on this, what are your thoughts?
Approximately 98% of the island's energy resources are imported. This is basically the end of it. The fishing fleet is at sea, so only those seiners that are under repair and on vacation will be transferred. By the time Europeans appear, cities will be overgrown with jungles, and old people will tell fairy tales about the Internet and space. It is difficult to predict climatic changes, but as a result of erosion, the huge weight of rocks washed into the ocean will suddenly stop pressing on the tectonic plate in 1450 and the island will "jump". The great earthquake of 1556 will seem like a children's holiday. And then crowds of natives will come to the ruins.
I do think there would be some tectonic disruptions realistically, but the mass of the transported region really wouldn't differ that much.
Also surely with the resources of an entire modern island, people could squeeze out some amount of useable power (and If they get that far there's always the oil in the spratly islands)
Also 19% of the islands energy is produced by nuclear plants
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Correctly. That's just the share of electricity production, and not in the overall energy balance of the island.
The minimum weight of washed away soil for 570 years is 618,968,700 tons (30 tons per hectare), but considering that this is a zone of typhoons and monsoons, it is probably more than 1 billion tons.
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What % is that in comparison to the weight of the entire island
To start oil production, you need to have the entire production cycle for oil production equipment and build terminals for loading into a tanker. The economy will collapse before the construction can be completed. By the way, what kind of oil? It will be ridiculous if the refineries can't process it. By the way, hydrology has changed a lot in 570 years, there is no satellite navigation system, there are no lighthouses, maps lie and even the magnetic pole of the planet has shifted. Many ships will die and be damaged in accidents.
I have no idea, but if suddenly at least 17,100 tons stop pressing on a square kilometer, it will be interesting on the island.
I have no idea, but if suddenly at least 17,100 tons stop pressing on a square kilometer, it will be interesting on the island.
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VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
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Holy shit. Might literally need to go into martial law to reshape society into one that can maintain the similarish level of quality of life. Suddenly being pulled out of the global supply chain means energy is now a huge concern. Locally Taiwan have a little bit of coal, non existent oil, tiny speck of natural gas, and unknown amount of fuel rods. Uncle Sam doesn't let us have a fuel rod stockpile seeing last time we almost broke into nuclear weapon.
Do you know what kind of cold weather was accompanied by the Little Ice Age in southern China in 1450 or similar dates?
VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
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About 1 harvest per year. Being in the subtropical zone does have its upsides. Though the bigger problem is fertilizer, should be at least 4~5 chem plants that can be retrofitted if we cannibalize other larger chem plants. Then again by that time the mainland population might be seriously desperate and attempt to sail over in rafts. Then what do? The national navy/army is in many ways bad at things but they sure aren't about to machine gun people.
rough map of ISOT area
I can't imagine Ming officials in Fujian will be overly welcoming to refugees...
desperate refugees with advanced tech coming over to a technologically inferior area...
oh boy this will end well
VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
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- Anywhere but RL
No no the other way. Ming refugees trying to get on the island. If luck would have it little ice age will destroy farming in the population dense mid/nortn around that time span.
Further thoughts. The traditional Pan Green and Pan Blue dynamic will crumble. Something new will pop up in its place, and at least one part will be the pro imperialism / colonialism crowd.
so it sounds like feeding the existing population isn't so much of an issue as keeping the lights on and the modern infrastructure intact will be
VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
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I mean there's a reason our current world can support huge population even in really poor countries. Improvement to seed and fertilizer made bumper crop a regular occurrences year after year. In any case if brain rot didn't set in the island could be a naval power for several hundred years. Even if the ships are just ironclads. Sure hope no one decided to just colonize the Americas but turned up 200%.
I don't think education standards will slip too far considering East Asian cultural values, and the fact that ISOT'ed Taiwan has probably the greatest concentration of books on the planet downtime.
I honestly can see a multi decade long slump in living standards, and a "gearing down" of sorts, but eventually the existing untapped energy sources will be exploited
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Consider foreign diasporas and just ambitious people. I am inclined to believe that against the background of the island's regression and the accelerated progress of the rest of the world, there will be an equilibrium in 2-3 generations.
P. S. An interesting point is that if the water area moves, then a wall of water is formed with a height from one meter to several meters (depends on the time of day and the tide / ebb in the universes). For 570 years, the ocean level has risen. The bays of the island will become a little shallow, but a powerful tsunami will hit the continent. Hmm. It is clear that ships will also be transferred to the sea, and planes in the air?! Several tens/hundreds of airliners to all countries of the world!
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I'm gonna call bull on that. Taiwan is isolationist because it has to deal with Red China next door and the complications of the One China Policy. Put it back a few hundred years and it will see a golden opportunity to make sure Red China never becomes a thing.
And I doubt it's gonna stop there. The nine-dash line that's causing headaches up and down the South China Sea? A Kuomintang invention that was a roundabout way of claiming the spoils the collapsing Japanese Empire left behind. Only this time, they're dealing with pre-industrial societies.
It's gonna be Chung Kuo all over again and this time in a very literal sense.
Sure they'll probably be preoccupied with getting their house in order the first few years. But once they've had time to breathe....
In a few years - when the island solves its problems, electronic chips, spare parts, consumables that were imported will end and begin to fail massively. What's the use of a cool machine if the software is written in the USA, the chips are made in Japan, and the bearings and cutters are in Germany? What is the point of a synthesis plant if catalysts and individual chemical components were imported?It is very difficult to create a full production cycle to get a single high-quality tiny part, which means homemade surrogates will be used. Equipment, weapons and transport will gradually fail. Consumer society - why make an "eternal" thing if you can sell a new one every year. The more complex parts, the shorter the service life. Sailboats with auxiliary diesel engines, artillery installations with optics, piston aircraft and steam tractors.
That's enough against the natives, but you forgot about planes in the air, ships at sea and foreign diasporas on the island. Of course, equality is out of the question, but the natives do not need to seize the island, they just need to dump expeditionary and occupation forces into the sea when the island decides that it needs colonies and free resources and does not need competitors. High-explosive and incendiary Congreve rockets can be made immediately from local resources, as the Indians did in the 18th century. Land and sea mines, fire-ships, grenades, tactics of guerrilla warfare of the 21st century. Of course, if the island decides to use chemical weapons, the war will end quickly, but still the technology will begin to spread and improve. By the way, chemical weapons are a double-edged blade, during the First World War gases were produced in wooden barrels, and Mongolia is a natural reserve of bubonic plague.
Taiwan can theoretically pour gases and napalm on militant natives like the United States in Vietnam, but one wooden junk, paper balloons and a few handfuls of plague fleas and lice will quickly make the life of supporters of the empire interesting.
Taiwan does not have the resources to control all of Asia and Europe. How long did it take Japan to switch from swords and bows to armadillos? 50 years old?
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Realistically the energy crisis can be solved. You will probably see strict energy rationing, prioritizing hospitals, government services, and the military, power once a week for everyone else, which will definitely cause problems but means society can limp on while stopgap measures are implemented followed by long-term efforts. Either expanding their nuclear power capabilities, looking into coal and oil deposits, etc.
The real problem will be getting the fuel to get food to people rather than the food itself. The economy will be in the shitter but a competent government can set up a command economy "for the duration", nationalize key industries, force people to work in vital services, secure critical supplies, etc.
If they fail to do that, or if they fuck it up...food riots, messy stuff, maybe a military coup or revolution. Maybe a more competent government gets in power, maybe they don't. Worst case scenario there's a triage or they shoot the food rioters (though that will probably make things worse). Maybe they do something radical like relocate people out of the cities and set up mass farming collectives. Might even work.
Of course there's no reason to do everything in-house. China and Japan have tons of resources including food, and Taiwan has more than enough things to sell. Sure the infrastructure isn't great but there are advisors and technical experts who can go ashore and help set things up.
Or maybe they can just deploy the army. It doesn't have to be a war of conquest, they could be making China or Japan into their client states, maybe a new Japanese government run by Japanese expats. Or maybe they could be exporting republicanism, inflaming revolutionaries. Maybe the KMT is in charge and wants to restore the RoC, maybe not.
Imagine that: a period of instability, a command economy and nationalization of key resources, maybe a change in government, a massive decline in living standards, a permanent change in lifestyle for a lot of people, intervention abroad whether military or economic with corresponding social changes there...could be pretty interesting.
The real problem will be getting the fuel to get food to people rather than the food itself. The economy will be in the shitter but a competent government can set up a command economy "for the duration", nationalize key industries, force people to work in vital services, secure critical supplies, etc.
If they fail to do that, or if they fuck it up...food riots, messy stuff, maybe a military coup or revolution. Maybe a more competent government gets in power, maybe they don't. Worst case scenario there's a triage or they shoot the food rioters (though that will probably make things worse). Maybe they do something radical like relocate people out of the cities and set up mass farming collectives. Might even work.
Of course there's no reason to do everything in-house. China and Japan have tons of resources including food, and Taiwan has more than enough things to sell. Sure the infrastructure isn't great but there are advisors and technical experts who can go ashore and help set things up.
Or maybe they can just deploy the army. It doesn't have to be a war of conquest, they could be making China or Japan into their client states, maybe a new Japanese government run by Japanese expats. Or maybe they could be exporting republicanism, inflaming revolutionaries. Maybe the KMT is in charge and wants to restore the RoC, maybe not.
Imagine that: a period of instability, a command economy and nationalization of key resources, maybe a change in government, a massive decline in living standards, a permanent change in lifestyle for a lot of people, intervention abroad whether military or economic with corresponding social changes there...could be pretty interesting.
Good analysis!
I thought of something that hasn't been brought up yet; downtime Chinese culture is heavily centered around the motions of the heavens and astronomical bodies, and the prediction of these motions. the uptime Taiwanese possess accurate data tables of all astronomical events for the next 570 years, which the Ming will very much want to get their hands on
I don't think COVID-19 had spread to the island at that point (January 1st)
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It probably won't spiral into a global plague even if they bring the virus with them (which they might not, Jan 1 2020 was pretty early into Covid-19, might not even be on the island yet), since the world of 1450 is unfathomably less interconnected. The constant, fast-paced, global movement of people just doesn't exist. There might be regional outbreaks in China, but it's doubtful that infected individuals will be able to travel even as far as India without dying or developing immunity before they reach their destination. Devastating pandemics in this era were those that could easily transmit through animal carriers, which Covid is fairly bad at, as far as I know.
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