Winter is Coming: House Stark Quest

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.
[] Ravens are to be sent out to House Velaryon and Celtigar acknowledging their years of loyal service, but still recognizing their age old ties to the Targaryens. This mercenary invader pretends to possess the Targaryen name, and he also claims marriage to the last of Aerys the Mad's spawn, and possibly sought to legitimize his claim and gain a foothold by seeking to make use of now forgone loyalties. If they have any information of this pretender, they are to reveal it to Stannis post haste.
-[] Make use of the Blackfish's expertise by having him lead outriders and scouts in the Riverlands to find the location or movements of the Golden Company. If they actually have elephants, they can't hide for long.
-[] Send a raven to Maidenpool to ensure it's defenses hold and to report back any movement and information of the GC and other mercenary forces.
[] Stannis will take an army north along the King's Road following behind Blackfish and his scouts. This will allow him to quickly maneuver and pin the Targaryen force if they have gone either west or south, the only paths open to them. This force should be large enough to quite comfortably give Stannis the advantage with the sheer weight of numbers alone. Also, a heavy cavalry force is esential to prevent the GC from being able to make use of theirs unchallenged. If any men have experience or knowledge of how to quickly dispatch elephants they are to be summoned to Stannis's side to inform him.
-[] While Stannis is marching north along the King's Road, the Royal Fleet will act as a naval pincer. They will sail in force to the mouth of the Bay of Crabs and then towards Maidenpool from their. A small blockade force at the very least should be left at the mouth of the Bay of Crabs, to prevent any repeat of the last Targaryen escape. A portion is also to be left behind in the Blackwater to maintain it's security.
[] Randyll Tarly is to immediately be dispatched south with an army of Reachmen/Stormlanders to confront and if necessary crush the Martell host. Beric Dondarion is to accompany him while Edric Dayne stays with either Stannis or Davos to guarantee his safety.
-[] Ravens are to be dispatched ahead. Not only to the Martells, but all the Dornish houses. Messages will also be sent Dornish army. It may not work, but if there's a chance at an acceptable peaceful solution that brings the Dornish to your cause and spares the lives of your men, then an attempt must be made. They must make their intent clear. Do they side with an impostor supported by mercenaries and feigning at any hint of legitimacy with the aid of the spawn of the Mad King, or do they side with the rightful King, Stannis? Swear to King Stannis and bloodshed will be avoided. Fail to do so and there will be no leniency. Hostages wards will likely need to be negotiated to ensure good faith is kept.
--[] Any meeting for further discussion must be in a place and under circumstance where your side has the advantage. Offer bread and salt but know better than to have any food or drink the Dornish bring. Be prepared for the Dornish failing to respect guest right or flags of peace.
-[] If they have not been informed already, send word by ravens to the Reach and Stormlands of the last known activities/location of the Iron Fleet. Send reminders to all coastal towns and castles that have currently sworn loyalty to King Stannis to remain vigilant in case the Iron Fleet reappears and attacks.


I added that bit about letting the Reach and Stormlands know about the Iron Fleet, and a general reminder for vigilance. Our men probably relayed as much and word likely spread on its own by now...but just in case.

One thing about all the plans, shouldn't we specify where Robb is in all this?


Well, that's my plan. Mostly shamelessly stealing Cami's plan but trying a peaceful solution instead, while being cautious and aware that the Dornish can't exactly be trusted.

Of course, it goes without saying if they fail to swear to Stannis or try anything funny then Tarly will make good on the 'no leniency' part.


Edit: If Oberyn's captured, we're not trusting him at all. I'm sure Randyll Tarly would make sure he's very secure. But just up and executing a valuable ransom seems like a waste.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

This plan seems reasonable enough.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

I've got a twelve hour shift tomorrow so I'll leave this open for a while longer and see about writing an update when I get home.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

It's better than attacking straight out and I don't want to split the vote by holding out for the hunter plan.

Damn it...I'm liking my vote less and less as time goes on.

I don't really see any terms beyond them 'swear loyalty...or else...' to try and agree on, which makes even attempting diplomacy seem futile.

And while a part of me thinks we 'ought' to try diplomacy, another part thinks 'don't even give the Dornish the chance.'

Then again, the fight can always start if negotiations don't work.

[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.

@Camiadus whichever plan wins, shouldn't we specify where Robb is?


Is he wherever Stannis is by default or King's Landing? Davos seems to have the latter well handled, but I think Robb would be helpful with Stannis and commanding cavalry, or with Tarly and confronting the Dornish.

spudman said:

Damn it...I'm liking my vote less and less as time goes on.

I don't really see any terms beyond them 'swear loyalty...or else...' to try and agree on, which makes even attempting diplomacy seem futile.

And while a part of me thinks we 'ought' to try diplomacy, another part thinks 'don't even give the Dornish the chance.'

Then again, the fight can always start if negotiations don't work.

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The biggest issue I have is, even if Doran says yes, we have absolutely no guarantee that A)he's not lying to us if he says he's standing down (the Dornish don't really have a reputation for acting in good faith, like, ever) or B) that Oberyn will follow his orders even if he receives a message from Doran to stand down. He's not exactly rational and this is Elia's kid we're talking about fighting.

Trying to reach out and attempt diplomacy with House Martell is at best going to be totally ineffective and at worst actively counterproductive to our cause,

[X] Plan: Hunter and Hunted.
I don't like the idea of splitting our forces and in my honest opinion the reach getting weakened a bit is not really a downside.

spudman said:

I don't really see any terms beyond them 'swear loyalty...or else...' to try and agree on, which makes even attempting diplomacy seem futile.

And while a part of me thinks we 'ought' to try diplomacy, another part thinks 'don't even give the Dornish the chance.'

Then again, the fight can always start if negotiations don't work.

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The point I've been trying to make is, there is no advantage in battle whatsoever. I want to avoid any battle with the Dornish. Because let's say we give battle, even after negotiations or what have you. Let's say we win, and win handily. What do we do with this victory? We're not invading Dorne; I'd like to think no one has such a hate-boner they'd attempt that idiocy. Will Dorne surrender because we crushed one of its armies? Probably not. Given the likely large amount of dead, will it calmly accept it? Likely not. If we kill Oberyn, will Doran still want revenge for Elia and also for Oberyn now? Yes.

In Officer's Training, we were taught a certain military doctrine: That it is impossible to win a war without attacking. Why? Because the definition of 'winning' was 'capturing the enemy's base' and the definition of attacking was 'attacking the enemy's territory' (attacking the enemy in your own territory was considered 'defending').

There's no defeating Dorne on the field, because unless you've managed to kill their entire army and then take over Dorne, you can't capture Dorne. Even if you capture Dorne after killing their entire army, we'd have to hold Dorne. How long could we do that, against incessant guerrilla attacks and ambuscades? To quote Benjen Stark on the matter: "A conquest that lasted a summer. Your Boy King lost ten thousand men taking the place, and another fifty trying to hold it. Someone should have told him that war isn't a game".

War isn't a game. War is hell. If we want Dorne as part of our realm, we can't defeat it on the field. It'll have to be maneuver and negotiation. And if we defeat Aegon, we're in the perfect position for that - we give the Dornish Tywin, we already gave them Lorch and Clegane - they won't be happy about Aegon (if he isn't proven to be a fake, which I don't think anyone can really prove), but they'll accept it, just like they accepted the same situation at the end of Robert's Rebellion.
If you don't want Dorne as part of our realm, that's fine; but admit that's your strategy, and commit to it.

Do we actually gain any tax revenues from dorne, because if not it might be more effective to let them leave and them impose border tolls on them since they'd still have to trade with us.

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

Sounds good to me. If wonder if it's be possible IC to spread rumors of Aegon being a Blackfyre. After all, Essosian heritage + Golden Company aka Bittersteels men = Totally legit Targ? That don't seem right. And to quote one quest/fic I read regarding Blackfyre v Targs "say what you want about a Targaryen restoration, at least it's an ethos!"

Iandude0 said:

The biggest issue I have is, even if Doran says yes, we have absolutely no guarantee that A)he's not lying to us if he says he's standing down (the Dornish don't really have a reputation for acting in good faith, like, ever) or B) that Oberyn will follow his orders even if he receives a message from Doran to stand down. He's not exactly rational and this is Elia's kid we're talking about fighting.

Trying to reach out and attempt diplomacy with House Martell is at best going to be totally ineffective and at worst actively counterproductive to our cause,

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Hmm...I guess I should clarify messengers also going to the main force requiring they state their intent. And I could add requiring hostages wards be taken from certain houses.


OTOH, their plausible deniability is paper thin from the start. Their 'nephew' comes to Westeros, and an army goes out without letting Stannis know or so much as a message saying 'hey, we're declaring for you and sending some guys your way'? Really?

I suppose Doran has plausible deniability if he says Oberyn acted on his own. It might even be true. But that's saying he can't control his own lords.

@Camiadus I hate to keep poking ya, but where is Robb in your plan? If Stannis is mostly taking Northerners, Valemen, and Riverlanders common sense would say he'd be there.

[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.

Fuck the Dornish.

Not literally, but you get the point.

[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.

Posting to check the vote tally

[X] Plan: Diplomacy, then Violence.

[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.

Fuck. Dorne. I have returned from exile for this. I would say glass them, but apparently we're against genocide.