Winter is Coming: House Stark Quest
- Thread starter Charcolt
- Start date
- Location
- Mists of Albion
It's not splitting our forces, it's raising a new force, also both forces massively outnumber their enemies
- Location
- Mists of Albion
If we focus North The Reach will be raided and burned and the Reach Lords might rebel over that, we only have a tenuous grip on them as is. If we focus on the South Aegon might escape and he will further burn the Riverlands just as winter starts to roll in, losing us a lot of the good will we've gained from them.
It's inefficient and stupid to try and focus on one at a time. Tarly's proven himself loyal to us and he can raise a larger host than the Dornish using the manpower of the Stormlands and Reach, he's also a famous and excellent commander of men, far surpassing Oberyn Martel or his spawn. Furthermore North we have Aegon, who now only has Mercenaries to rely on, Mercenaries outnumbered 4 to 1 by two of the greatest commanders of their era and they will soon know it. Mercenaries care about money, and living to spend that money. If they fight they know they can't win. They'll break as soon as we appear on the horizon and if they fight they will very likely lose.
NúmenoreanNazgûl
Witch-King
- Location
- Minas Morgul
- Location
- The Holiest of Cities
The Dornish haven't done any shit yet. All they've done is destroy a vassal rebelling against them, which they are well within their rights to do. Oh, and send an army - but we have not reports of them attacking anything in the Reach or Stormlands, and therefore, the Dornish have plausible deniability - they might be coming to help us. Luckily, we also have it, otherwise they'd be absolutely justified in rebelling against Stannis. The real reason for your desire to fight the Dornish is this:
Which is fine by me, but I don't think 'fuck the Dornish' is a good thing to base policy and strategy on. If we defeat Aegon before the Dornish arrive, we've lost nothing. If Randyll loses to the Dornish, we've lost men, a good general, and reputation (as well as possibly spurring more support for the Targaryens in the Reach, and reversing all our gains there). Even if Randyll wins, all we've done is lost troops. Worse, Dorne would have no problem rising (as well as justification - since we attacked their army without provocation and then killed a Prince of Dorne), and nobody's ever taken Dorne. They still have half their army, and unless we have some good (read: nat 100) dice rolls, we wouldn't be able to take it. So we'd lose a kingdom, and if we want to take it back, we'll have to divert troops and attention, and if we want to negotiate it back, we'll need a shitload of concessions.
Your plan further fails to account for lack of intelligence. The Dornish might have sent another army to the Prince's Pass - which isn't too far from Horn Hill, coincidentally, so they could sack that and take Randyll's wife and daughters hostage. The Ironborn might be swinging wide around the Arbor to attack The Reach. Or they might swing around Westeros and attack the Stormlands. And where's our army? Oh, either defeated by the Dornish, or recovering from a battle against them while trying to make sure no one else rebels and the Dornish invaders are driven out of the marches.
I'm looking at the long run here. If we defeat Aegon, the Martells (through force or maneuver - and I prefer maneuver, because that's the best way to fight) and the Iron Fleet, I highly doubt that will be the end of the Quest. We'll still have the Wildlings in the North, and I'm sure @Charcolt might throw some other curveballs at us - maybe Drogo really want Dany back, and has managed to get the Dothraki to cross the Narrow Sea, or some shit. The point is, we need to conserve forces, and defeat the more immediate threats, not flail wildly at the Martells because we hate them.
Edit:
Firstly, we don't know this for certain by any measure. We have no reports of it thus far, and you'd think that by now the Dornish are in the Reach/Stormlands. Secondly, given they took the Boneway, they're actually in the Stormlands, since the Boneway ends at Summerhall, and they can cross the Stormlands to reach King's Landing, or take the Roseroad through the Reach (another problem, since Tarly would have to either discover where they are or take a gamble). Thirdly, if they might rebel at Dornish raiding, they might equally rebel if Tarly loses, and decide to declare for the Targaryens.
Baseless conjecture. We have no idea of the size of the Dornish host. It could be anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000 (supposedly Dorne's muster is around 30,000-45,000). The size of the Reach and Stormlands army is also debatable - Renly had 80,000 men, but at least some of those were killed/sent to take the black. Others might not be anywhere near enough to muster in time to fight the Dornish.
Similarly, Tarly never faced Oberyn on the field of battle. All we know is that Tarly is the best in the Reach, and managed to defeat Robert Baratheon once. On the other hand, Oberyn is experienced, is leading a host completely loyal to him, and headed a mercenary company for several years. You can't predict who will win based on that, unless @Charcolt confirms Tarly has a bonus to his rolls that Oberyn doesn't.
Assumptions we have no proof for. All we know is that the squire (who's in shell-shock and is barely a boy) saw Targaryen and Gold banners. It might just be the Golden Company, only 10,000 men. It might also be five other mercenary companies that were scouting the area, or still on the ships. It might be a Dothraki Khalasar. It might be 10,000 Unsullied. You're rushing off to battle without any idea what you're facing
Except if this is the Golden Company, they also care about going home (as per canon, given they broke their contract there to join Aegon's Invasion), and have high hopes of getting back their lands and titles.
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- Location
- Spain
Why everyone has such a hate boner for Dorne? I also hate the TV Show Dorne, but in the books the whole house is (apart from Quentin) quite likeable, and Oberyn and the true Sand Snakes are pretty Crazy Awesome...
Hmmm, where to start...
Dorne's plot armor is a big reason. The entire region is one big ass desert and when Aegon glassed it during the Conquest, Dornish still refused to surrender? They were even able to survive? Not to mention the sheer, dumb luck they had when they killed Merazes and captured Rhaenys Targaryen. And then Aegon still gave into their requests instead of utterly crushing them.
Second, they killed Daeron I under peace banners. Peace banners. It's basically breaking guest right, and we all know Westerosi take that tradition seriously. However, Dorne doesn't seem to suffer drawbacks from this act. In fact, some dislike Dornish exactly because of their penchant for dirty tricks.
Third, the members of House Martell aren't really nice people if you think about it - Oberyn poisoned a man in an honorable duel, acts like an asshole most of the time and dies like a real idiot, the Sand Snakes are more than willing to murder innocents just to appease their thirst for vengeance, Doran utterly fails at being a smart parent.
Dark Abstraction
Infrequent Participant
- Location
- United States
[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.
- Location
- The Holiest of Cities
Well, since it seems to me that we're taking an unwise path that will almost certainly lead to needless conflict and may lead to defeat, I wrote up this omake, descriing the happenings at Yronwood. Hopefully @Charcolt will look upon it with favor; I fear we will need every advantage possible if we do
Title comes from Shakespeare's Macbeth, all information is canon except for Lord Wyl's name, which we do not have. Yes, including the fact that Lady Gwyneth Yronwood wants to marry Qunetyn when she flowers, and that he himself wants the same thing. @Charcolt has a gift for making happy endings of the most tragic stuff.
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- Location
- Underground
All true, but right now the Martells have plausible deniability in that I don't think they have formally declared for anyone yet. Of course, that argument is a bit thin since you would think they would send a message to Stannis before or as they start moving if their intentions were to declare for him. But the deniability is still there.
They could try and argue they were intending to declare for Stannis until we put the Yronwoods up to betraying them. Luckily we have some deniability for our part in that.
We need to consider how this debacle could be seen or spun by others. Considering the deniability on both sides just attacking the Dornish army could be spun as 'proof' of Stannis betraying them.
Send messages ahead or confront them. Force THEM to explain themselves. Deny any kind of deal with the Yronwoods. This could be a 'misunderstanding' that they can walk away from.
Hell, have we considered it might actually be?
Maybe Oberyn wanted the Lannisters bad enough that he assembles a force, intending to join whoever gets to King's Landing first. Official word isn't sent because Doran doesn't want his official stamp on anything, even if he unofficially allowed it.
Probably not, but I would like to at least try to communicate with them. For appearances sake if nothing else.
I simply answered why many hate Dorne.
I'm sure that from a practical point of view, keeping Dorne on our side is probably better. However, I'd rather have a Dornish genocide thank you very much.
[X] Plan: Bent, Bowed, Broken. Salt and Tears.
- Location
- Pacific NW
Send a raven to Oberyn Martell from Stannis, stating that the Lannister's are broken and that all those responsible for the destruction of King's Landing are dead. Further mention that King Stannis is looking forward to meeting with the Lords of Dorne as loyal vassals.
This letter puts Oberyn in a spot where he must declare his intentions, even if only subtly.
If he continues northwards with his entire army then we deal with him. If he sends most of his men back and retains only an entourage then we know he's not planning anything overly rebellious. That allows us to hunt down that missing mercenary company.
This letter puts Oberyn in a spot where he must declare his intentions, even if only subtly.
If he continues northwards with his entire army then we deal with him. If he sends most of his men back and retains only an entourage then we know he's not planning anything overly rebellious. That allows us to hunt down that missing mercenary company.
- Location
- Spain
Thanks for answering, I personally believe they are not so bad, they never were my favorites, but they are among the houses I kinda like...
[X] Plan: Hunter and Hunted.
- Location
- Underground
Even if it's potentially a free PR coup/rallying cry for F!Aegon?
'Stop the mad tyrant' and all that.
@Camiadus . I'm not saying bend over backwards for Dorne, I'm not even saying 'don't crush them utterly if it comes to a fight'.
But who did what is muddled (and there is an off chance it could be an actual misunderstanding). So we could at least try to open a line of communication. If we get them to back down and kneel, that's fewer lives lost on our side. If we can't we can at least point out we tried.
Or do you simply want genocide?
Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
[X] Plan: Hunter and Hunted.
Let's not fight more battles than we have to, guys... No to mention we're basing our rationale off of a hate-boner that IC Robb doesn't have. If we can find Aegon and defeat him, the war is won in one fell swoop. If we go after Dorne, we have to fight another battle anyway with fewer men than we would have had otherwise. They're not just any mercenaries, they're the Golden Company. Not backing out of contracts is kind of their shtick. Besides, if Aegon is a Blackfyre, they'd be abandoning their entire purpose of existence. They're not going to just turn tail and run.
Let's not fight more battles than we have to, guys... No to mention we're basing our rationale off of a hate-boner that IC Robb doesn't have. If we can find Aegon and defeat him, the war is won in one fell swoop. If we go after Dorne, we have to fight another battle anyway with fewer men than we would have had otherwise. They're not just any mercenaries, they're the Golden Company. Not backing out of contracts is kind of their shtick. Besides, if Aegon is a Blackfyre, they'd be abandoning their entire purpose of existence. They're not going to just turn tail and run.
Dark Abstraction
Infrequent Participant
- Location
- United States
What are you talking about, the Golden Company was founded and supported the Blackfyres. If FAegon's a Blackfyre, then they're not abandoning their purpose, they'd be putting a man of Blackfyre descent and Targaryen legitimacy on the throne; it's the culmination of their purpose.
Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
Are you replying to me? Because that's basically what I just said.
- Location
- Pacific NW
[X] Plan: Hunter and Hunted.
Dark Abstraction
Infrequent Participant
- Location
- United States
Your phrasing gave me the impression you were saying the opposite. My mistake.
Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
No problem. It's happened to all of us. Or at least to me...many times.