Winter is Coming: House Stark Quest

Aw, jeez. But we have had plenty of time.

Okay, if we have Robb elsewhere while Stannis sacks King's Landing...I think Odran is right and Stannis isn't likely to outright execute the kids (well, maybe Joffrey but I don't think Tyrion would mind too much), but we can't discount the possibility. I'd prefer Robb to be at King's Landing not just for that (for keeping the deal with Tyrion), but I also feel he should be there since he had such a big hand in making it ripe for the taking.

We can't take all the cavalry if we're splitting our force. We have to assume Joffrey will have at least some.

We can't assume Renly will be inclined to a truce if he knows or finds out about Aegon and the Golden Company. As far as he knows Aegon is at Saltpans, or at least north of King's Landing. That means Stannis would be between him and Aegon. Renly will keep heading north from the Reach and is probably hoping the Golden Company will soften up Stannis. His army can take care of things from there.

I suspect that if we march on Saltpans, we cede King's Landing to Renly or Aegon. It would be a PR and morale coup for either of them. One we can't really afford either of them to have.

I do not want Renly or anyone else to know about the Golden Company. It lets them know that STANNIS has another problem waiting in the wings.


And I'm trying to keep in mind that this vote is for larger strategic decisions and goals. How to conduct any battles will probably be in later updates.


[X] Plan King of the Hill
-[X] You need to take King's Landing as soon as possible. You are already poised to do so, and besides knocking a side out of this war, it secures the Iron Throne. Possession is 9/10ths of the law and the Throne itself is a symbol of legitimacy. You'll take care of Renly, Aegon, and whoever else comes after that.
-[X] If your forces being outside King's Landing is no surprise to the Lannisters in King's Landing offer a promise to of guaranteed mercy if they surrender. This is the word of King Stannis Baratheon and Robb Stark, Eddard Stark's heir. Will they get the same kindness from the Tyrells or Aegon? This is a very limited time offer. If we can take the city without a fight all the better.
-[X] If they don't accept, storm the city and try to take it as quickly as possible.
-[X] Suggest sending a small scouting force to track Renly's army. Not to directly engage, but to scout, and sabotage the roads and bridges they travel on or disrupt supply lines if possible. Whatever it takes to buy time.
--[X] Whether that idea pans out or not, also consider if there's any way to sabotage Renly's path as it would approach King's Landing itself. If there is, do so.
-[X] By the time you would arrive at Saltpans by land or sea the Golden Company would be fully disembarked if that is their plan. You aren't stopping their arrival before it begins...if they're even still there. But you don't want to leave the Riverlands entirely to Aegon's mercy if he's there. Whether he's there or this is part of a larger gambit remains to be seen. Suggest sending a more mobile scouting force there. Perhaps with the Blackfish leading it. Find out what happened. If the Golden Company is there, harry them but avoid a direct fight. If he's not, find out what you can and get word back with all haste.
-[X] Send ravens to Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[X] Send ravens to Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find.
-[X] Send ravens to Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south if they aren't aware already. Their coasts may be in danger. You may have no great love for the Westerlands but you wouldn't wish reaving Ironborn on anyone. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
-[X] Send ravens to the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to be prepared for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale. Unlikely, but not impossible.



Don't fall for the bait of Saltpans. What's there for Aegon to gain? The Riverlands have already been ravaged.

@Charcolt

Does this plan work as far as strategic goals go? (the warnings to various parties are gravy). Or does the attack on King's Landing need more specific tactics?
 
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If we hit King's Landing, we leave out back open for attack by Renly. The Lannisters aren't gonna do shit if we let them stew for a bit, and Renly's an active threat. And more than that, killing Renly means that we get the Stormlands back, since that's what they did canonically. And we're better off than Canon.

We ought to try and flip Tarly and the Florents with agents, and then butcher Renly's army. It lends Stannis legitimacy by putting down his usurper brother and gets him more troops to break FAegon with.
 
Don't fall for the bait of Saltpans. What's there for Aegon to gain there? The Riverlands have already been ravaged.
Legitimacy, at least in theory. The Riverlands have been rolled over enough that with decent PR the landing could be spun as Good King Aegon coming from across the waters to bind up the bleeding countryside. Get the smallfolk on his side via a gesture of compassion and largess.

...of course, the rumors that Saltpans burned kind of puts the kibosh on that sort of plan, but it seems like the kind of thing Varys might set up. (And then Aegon would knock down 'cos he's either a chip off the old block or actually one of the madder Blackfyres, but I digress.) In any case, I legit don't have a better plan in mind. If we can take King's Landing that gives us an edge where right now we've got bupkis. Aegon will be moving south as quickly as possible for the same reason--so will the ironborn. We may be racing the squids to the capitol, and isn't that a cheery thought?

If we hit King's Landing, we leave out back open for attack by Renly.
And if we strike at Renly, we leave our backs open to Aegon. We are not in a good position right now, any movement is going to be risky, and we can't stand still.

[X] Plan King of the Hill
-[X] You need to take King's Landing as soon as possible. We are already poised to do so, and besides knocking out a side out of this war, it secures the Iron Throne. Possession is 9/10ths of the law and the Throne itself is a symbol of legitimacy. You'll take care of Aegon and whoever else comes after that.
-[X] By the time you would arrive at Saltpans by land or sea the Golden Company would be fully disembarked if that is their plan. You aren't stopping their arrival before it begins...if they're even still there. But you don't want to leave the Riverlands entirely to Aegon's mercy if he's there. Whether he's there or this is part of a larger gambit remains to be seen. Suggest sending a more mobile scouting force there. Perhaps with the Blackfish leading it. Find out what happened. If the Golden Company is there, harry them but avoid a direct fight. If he's not, find out what you can and get word back with all haste.
-[X] Send ravens to Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[X] Send ravens to Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find.
-[X] Send ravens to Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
-[X] Send ravens to the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
 
And if we strike at Renly, we leave our backs open to Aegon. We are not in a good position right now, any movement is going to be risky, and we can't stand still.
They're not close enough to do anything about it. We can bumrush Renly and FAegon wouldn't be able to catch us till we'd already won and recovered.
 
If we hit King's Landing, we leave out back open for attack by Renly. The Lannisters aren't gonna do shit if we let them stew for a bit, and Renly's an active threat. And more than that, killing Renly means that we get the Stormlands back, since that's what they did canonically. And we're better off than Canon.

We ought to try and flip Tarly and the Florents with agents, and then butcher Renly's army. It lends Stannis legitimacy by putting down his usurper brother and gets him more troops to break FAegon with.

We do have to take King's Landing quickly. Once taken we'd be in a much better position to defend and Renly's numbers advantage doesn't look as great.

Remember, once the city is ours we'd have the advantage of defending if Renly tries to take it.


It depends on how close Renly is, I suppose. If we move away from King's Landing you can bet Aegon's going to take the city for himself. And then we have Targ Restoration to deal with.

On even ground the fight with Renly's army is one we can win, but it won't be easy.


Trying to flip the Florents sounds like an idea that could fit in any plan...but what makes you think Tarly would flip?
 
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So we're just dismissing my plan to secretly murder Selyse, and then betroth Stannis to Aegon then?
 
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Either way...maybe we shouldn't spare anything for Saltpans. Just in case. Thoughts on removing that part of my plan?

Anyway, here's an alternative if you guys think we should deal with Renly first.


[] Plan Stick to the Plan
-[] Stick to the plan. Deal with Renly first. Then take King's Landing.
-[] Send ravens to Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[] Send ravens to Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find.
-[] Send ravens to Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
-[] Send ravens to the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
-[] Can we get any agents in contact with the Florents? Renly has no legitimate claim and a daughter of the Florents is the current rightful Queen. If they were to assist in causing strife within Renly's army then they would gain great favor and be rewarded.



Takes out sending anything to Saltpans. But this is just a framework. If you have any particular strategies in mind for Renly, feel free to add.


@Charcolt, do we have any idea of how close Renly might be?


We're already poised to attack the city, I think we can take it.

We could even send a message for surrender to those in King's Landing. Promise a fate other than death if they surrender. Renly or Aegon may not be so kind.

Actually...adding that to King of the Hill.


Edit: Added this to my plan.

-[] If your forces being outside King's Landing is no surprise to Joffrey and the Lannisters offer a promise to Joffrey, Cersei, Jamie, Kevan, etc. of guaranteed mercy if they surrender. This is the word of King Stannis Baratheon and Robb Stark, Eddard Stark's heir. Will they get the same kindness from the Tyrells or Aegon? This is a very limited time offer. If we can take the city without a fight all the better.


May still remove the small force to Saltpans from King of the Hill. Not sure.


I'll add that 'mercy' does not mean the Black, Maesters, Faith, etc. would be off the table. Just the axe.
 
[] Plan Putting Down Usurpers

[] Send agents to make offers to Randyll Tarly if he flips for Stannis. Offer Tarly Highgarden the Lord Paramountcy of the Reach, due to his position as next the Florent lands and his marriage ties to Stannis and the Florents. As well, make to betroth Arya to his son Dickon, provided he doesn't want to marry Margaery to him for added legitimacy.

[] Send out ravens
-[] To Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[] To Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find
-[] To Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
-[] To the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
-[] To the Yronwoods in regards to eliminating the Martells in exchange for Dorne and other enticements.
-[] To King's Landing, making an offer of generous terms to Kevan Lannister for a peaceful surrender. Oath before the Seven and the High Septon to give Cersei and Joffrey a fair trial. Tommen will be remanded to a Sept or sent to the Citadel, his choice.

[] March on KL but send a screen of scout past the Blackwater so we're not surprised by a Reach army up the bum.
-[] Send a detachment of troops to garrison around King's Landing, letting them start to starving out while Kevan considers our offer.
--[] March the rest of the army to catch Renly's army as he's stuck crossing the Blackwater Rush on his way to King's Landing.


Reasoning:

The letters were a good idea, so I kept those

The Florents have enough blood ties that they have to flip for Stannis if Randyll does, Stannis and Randyll are both married to Florents. That turns a bunch of Renly's forces, including his best general, to us. It also secures us the Reach, who otherwise would be a concern; the Stormlands will back Stannis if Renly dies, but the Reach could flip for FAegon. We need them broken or loyal, to prevent that.

The Yronwoods hate the Martells anyway, they stand to gain a lot from supporting Stannis.

Securing King's Landing peacefully is ideal, and giving Kevan a time limit to decide on what to do (since Stannis' fleet has him cut off from provisions by the sea, and our troops would cut him off by land) means he'll be likely to actually cave.

If we can hit Renly while he's crossing a river, his ability to leverage his troops gets crippled. If there's a bridge then he's fucked for fielding troops in enough force to have a numbers advantage and he can't use cavalry (it's not hard to turn a bridge into a warren on spears to deter horses). If he has to ford the river, then he's fucked cause his footmen are literal arrow-fodder while crossing and his cavalry will be much more tired if they have to cross in a rush or aren't properly supported if they're already across. With either though, his ability to give ground is thrashed and he can't use his best advantage; numeric superiority.
Adhoc vote count started by Dark Abstraction on Jul 28, 2017 at 10:10 PM, finished with 1939 posts and 11 votes.

  • -[X] Send ravens to Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find.
    -[X] Send ravens to Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
    [X] Plan King of the Hill
    -[X] By the time you would arrive at Saltpans by land or sea the Golden Company would be fully disembarked if that is their plan. You aren't stopping their arrival before it begins...if they're even still there. But you don't want to leave the Riverlands entirely to Aegon's mercy if he's there. Whether he's there or this is part of a larger gambit remains to be seen. Suggest sending a more mobile scouting force there. Perhaps with the Blackfish leading it. Find out what happened. If the Golden Company is there, harry them but avoid a direct fight. If he's not, find out what you can and get word back with all haste.
    -[X] Send ravens to the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to be prepared for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale. Unlikely, but not impossible.
    -[X] If your forces being outside King's Landing is no surprise to Joffrey and the Lannisters offer a promise to Joffrey, Cersei, Jamie, Kevan, etc. of guaranteed mercy if they surrender. This is the word of King Stannis Baratheon and Robb Stark, Eddard Stark's heir. Will they get the same kindness from the Tyrells or Aegon? This is a very limited time offer. If we can take the city without a fight all the better.
    -[X] Send ravens to Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south if they aren't aware already. Their coasts may be in danger. You may have no great love for the Westerlands but you wouldn't wish reaving Ironborn on anyone. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
    -[X] You need to take King's Landing as soon as possible. You are already poised to do so, and besides knocking a side out of this war, it secures the Iron Throne. Possession is 9/10ths of the law and the Throne itself is a symbol of legitimacy. You'll take care of Aegon and whoever else comes after that.
    -[X] Send ravens to Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
    -[X] Send ravens to the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
    [X] Plan Intelligence:
    -[X] March north with our army towards Saltpans, aiming to rest the night at Harrenhall (I assume we can reach it without exhaustion, if we can reach the Ruby Ford with exhaustion). When we get there, set up a strong camp and vigilant perimeter.
    -[X] Send a raven towards Saltpans - maybe the castle of Ser Cox held out? In any case, send a wide but closely connected net of outriders and scouts, aiming to discover what happened at Saltpans, where the Golden Company is now, where is it heading, and what are the forces at its disposal.
    -[X] Send another raven only to Renly, informing him of an invasion by The Golden Company, carrying Targaryen banners, and supposedly led by Aegon and Daenerys. Remind him of the Siege of Storm's End, where Stannis protected him and gave him his rations, when they were besieged by Mace Tyrell - on the Targaryen side. Remind him the Targaryen's will have no mercy for the usurping Baratheons, and advise him to be wary of Tyrell and the rest of the Reach Lords, who might still be loyal to the Targaryens.
    -[X] Send ravens to Renly and the Lord of the Reach. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise them to see to their coasts. Remind them that the Iron Fleet has a shallow draught - if they break through at the Shield Islands, they could sail up the Mander until Bitterbridge. Similarly, they could break through at Oldtown and raid up the Honeywine.
    -[X] Send Stannis' fleet north, towards Saltpans - if the Golden Company did land there, the fleet could blockade the Bay of Crabs, or even attack it and destroy it, stranding it. So much the better if the ships are heavily loaded with provisions/men/horses/elephants. At the same time, advise them to be vigilant - the Iron Fleet might show up unexpectedly at their rear (who knows how many people stole Littlefinger's teleport machine?).
    -[X] You need to take King's Landing as soon as possible. We are already poised to do so, and besides knocking out a side out of this war, it secures the Iron Throne. Possession is 9/10ths of the law and the Throne itself is a symbol of legitimacy. You'll take care of Aegon and whoever else comes after that.
    -[x] Robb will lead a contingent of Cavalry up northwards, being sure to take a crossing that puts him north of the Trident, he will try to be subtle enough that Aegon won't know they are there and use our scouts to cover them under the command of the Blackfish
    -[x] If Aegon doesn't meet you at the Trident try and harass him with your cavalry advantage and tear apart any forces that try to meet up with him, try to attack him in a weak position or trap him to make him fight you.
    -[x] If Aegon contests you there have Robb smash him with the Cavalry when he begins to engage. Make sure to try and create stake pits ready for the elephants when you get there.
    -[x] Stannis will lead the foot on a march to cross the river at the Trident, send ravens to the houses around the Saltpans, telling them that he is coming across the Trident and to resist the foreign Blackfire invaders. Be obvious in your movements and leave behind a strong garrison in Harrenhall, try to lure Aegon to attack you there, perhaps let some of your scouts be 'captured' to make sure he knows.
    [x] Plan: Finish it Quickly
    [X] "I will protect the innocents of your family."
    [X] Plan Putting Down Usurpers
 
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@Dark Abstraction one problem is that this would piss off Stannis' Florent in-laws. I know Tarly is a badass commander but logically speaking if anyone will turn to Stannis it's House Florent and not Tarly. After all House Florent has the strongest claim as House Gardener's successor since they're descended from the male cadet branch while the Tyrells are from the female cadet branch and only got the position from Aegon the Conqueror.
 
@Dark Abstraction one problem is that this would piss off Stannis' Florent in-laws. I know Tarly is a badass commander but logically speaking if anyone will turn to Stannis it's House Florent and not Tarly. After all House Florent has the strongest claim as House Gardener's successor since they're descended from the male cadet branch while the Tyrells are from the female cadet branch and only got the position from Aegon the Conqueror.
Turning Tarly is the important part, because he's Renly's best general. And the Florents already have ties to House Tarly, Randyll married a Florent. So they'd be getting Highgarden and the Lord Paramountcy; just not directly. It'd go to Tarly, but his children are half Florent. And we can always give the Florents land from rebels, it's not like there's a dearth of those in the Reach. The Florents will get theirs, and they have to turn if Randyll does, because they're married into Randyll and Stannis' families. The real issue is that we absolutely need to get Randyll Tarly on our side and off Renly's. Cause he could really fuck us if he stays loyal to Renly.
 
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Randyll Tarly will be loyal to Renly so long as he's recognized as king by the Tyrells. There's no indication whatsoever that he would turn on the Tyrells, so offering him Highgarden means nothing to him. Especially since we don't actually have Highgarden. This isn't like with House Lannister where we're holding the Lord Paramount hostage. Unless there's some indication that the Tyrells are going to lose and lose badly then Tarly isn't going to flip.
 
[] Plan Putting Down Usurpers

[] Send agents to make offers to Randyll Tarly if he flips for Stannis. Offer Tarly Highgarden the Lord Paramountcy of the Reach, due to his position as next the Florent lands and his marriage ties to Stannis and the Florents. As well, make to betroth Arya to his son Dickon, provided he doesn't want to marry Margaery to him for added legitimacy.

[] Send out ravens
-[] To Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[] To Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find
-[] To Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts. Also inform him of a possible Targaryen invasion (the Lannisters are their natural enemies, after Tywin's Sack of King's Landing), and tell him we may need his men once the coastal situation is resolved.
-[] To the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
-[] To the Yronwoods in regards to eliminating the Martells in exchange for Dorne and other enticements.
-[] To King's Landing, making an offer of generous terms to Kevan Lannister for a peaceful surrender. Oath before the Seven and the High Septon to give Cersei and Joffrey a fair trial. Tommen will be remanded to a Sept or sent to the Citadel, his choice.

[] March on KL but send a screen of scout past the Blackwater so we're not surprised by a Reach army up the bum.
-[] Send a detachment of troops to garrison around King's Landing, letting them start to starving out while Kevan considers our offer.
--[] March the rest of the army to catch Renly's army as he's stuck crossing the Blackwater Rush on his way to King's Landing.


Reasoning:

The letters were a good idea, so I kept those

The Florents have enough blood ties that they have to flip for Stannis if Randyll does, Stannis and Randyll are both married to Florents. That turns a bunch of Renly's forces, including his best general, to us. It also secures us the Reach, who otherwise would be a concern; the Stormlands will back Stannis if Renly dies, but the Reach could flip for FAegon. We need them broken or loyal, to prevent that.

The Yronwoods hate the Martells anyway, they stand to gain a lot from supporting Stannis.

Securing King's Landing peacefully is ideal, and giving Kevan a time limit to decide on what to do (since Stannis' fleet has him cut off from provisions by the sea, and our troops would cut him off by land) means he'll be likely to actually cave.

If we can hit Renly while he's crossing a river, his ability to leverage his troops gets crippled. If there's a bridge then he's fucked for fielding troops in enough force to have a numbers advantage and he can't use cavalry (it's not hard to turn a bridge into a warren on spears to deter horses). If he has to ford the river, then he's fucked cause his footmen are literal arrow-fodder while crossing and his cavalry will be much more tired if they have to cross in a rush or aren't properly supported if they're already across. With either though, his ability to give ground is thrashed and he can't use his best advantage; numeric superiority.

I don't trust the Martells, but is there an IC reason to try screwing them over the way your plan suggests? They haven't actually done anything against us.

No chance in hell of flipping Tarly. Honestly, I'm rethinking including that part about the Florents. What agents could we put in place, realistically? And without anyone of the Reach noticing...

-[] To King's Landing, making an offer of generous terms to Kevan Lannister for a peaceful surrender. Oath before the Seven and the High Septon to give Cersei and Joffrey a fair trial. Tommen will be remanded to a Sept or sent to the Citadel, his choice.

[] March on KL but send a screen of scout past the Blackwater so we're not surprised by a Reach army up the bum.
-[] Send a detachment of troops to garrison around King's Landing, letting them start to starving out while Kevan considers our offer.
--[] March the rest of the army to catch Renly's army as he's stuck crossing the Blackwater Rush on his way to King's Landing.

Kevan is the most reasonable Lannister. But is he the one in charge right now? Cersei at least knows from first hand experience as well that a Stark's word can be trusted.

Would Renly be crossing the Blackwater Rush? I thought they would be traveling on the Rose Road. The closest crossing to King's Landing on that road is Bitterbridge.
 
[X] Plan King of the Hill
@spudman Could you add these to the plan?
-[] Send ravens to make offers to the Reachmen if they flips for Stannis. Offer the Florents Highgarden and the Lord Paramountcy of the Reach. Offer Tarly the Wardenship of the South.
-[] To the Stormlander lords to get them to join our cause against the Usurper Renly.
 
WOOOOOOH!




I LIVE AGAIN!

Okay, time to get down to it. In one corner, we have Stannis the Mannis, the One True King, with 80,000 men, Three of the Seven Kingdoms behind him, a legitimate blood claim, and the foremost claim as recognized by every form of Westerosi law, religious or otherwise. In the other corner we have Renly the Would-Be-Usurper, the noted younger, untested, unblooded, brother of Stannis. He has Two of the Seven Kingdoms behind him, one of which, the Stormlands, only tenuously supports him at best.

Since Renly has no actual legitimate claim to the Iron Throne while Stannis is alive, the longer he goes without seizing King's Landing, the weaker his cause gets. This means he has to move to take the city before everything else. However, the overall situation is also greatly changed, as Stannis openly has a larger number of kingdoms supporting his claim, and an equivalent military force, unlike in cannon where he possessed a force barely consisting of more men than the personal levy of Dragonstone.

This actually undermines Renly significantly, as Stannis no longer appears to be a foe he can overcome in a single battle, which itself is hardly an almost guaranteed victory anymore. This also means that the Reach lords without a personal stake in Renly's ascension will be much, much more skeptical of supporting him. We should press this new advantage. One of the best ways to do this is to reach out to Alester Florent, and through him, to his daughter Melessa, who just so happens to be the wife of Randyll Tarly. Randyll Tarly is also the foremost military commander on Renly's side. If we reach out with generous terms through his wife, given the changed situation, he'll be more likely to accept than not I imagine. Especially given that Renly and Mace both must grate on him consistently, with Randyll being a martinet and they being foppish fools both.

Aegon can be left alone for now, as he possesses by far the smallest force, and the Riverlands have already been savaged to a good degree by Tywin's original incursion. Most of the salvageable harvest would have already been collected at this point, so for the Golden Company and Aegon to actually harm the Riverlands, they would need to begin sieging castles. That would actually buy us even more time. Send a scouting force to keep tabs on Aegon and harass and kill any outriders and scouts he's sending out.

Therefore, I propose that we force a confrontation with Renly and his host after beginning the process of cutting off King's Landing from receiving food by leaving behind several raiding parties and utilizing Stannis' fleet to cut it off from sea. Doing this at the same time as offering Kevan at least moderately generous terms for surrender would be the most prudent course of action. Cersei and Joffrey must be put in the custody of Stannis however, and Tommen absolutely must forswear any claim and acknowledge his bastard nature in public, before the High Septon.

Taking this into account, I therefore suggest the following course of action.

[X] Plan Who Needs Shadow Babies

[] Use whatever means necessary to contact Alester Florent, and through his daughter Melessa, Randyll Tarly, and offer them generous terms in exchange for their support. The terms themselves should be left up to Stannis, as he is the King, but one of the two houses should be offered Lord Paramountcy of the Reach at the minimum.

[] Send out ravens
-[] To Father and the North, informing them of what we know. Ask him to keep a watch on both coasts, and mobilize all he can of the Manderly Fleet (in case the Golden Company decides to land in the North).
-[] To Seagard and any other coastal holding we have, asking them to scout the seas as well as they can, and immediately inform us of what they find.
-[] To Riverrun and any dependable loyal lords, informing them of the landing of a suspected Targaryen pretender with the Golden Company in the Saltpans. Prepare for sieges as best they can while Stannis deals with Renly's host to the south.
-[] To Casterly Rock. Inform them of what we know of the Iron Fleet sailing past Seagard south, and advise Tyrion to take Stafford's host and see to his coasts.
-[] To the Vale Lords, informing them of what we know about Saltpans, and advise them to fortify the Bloody Gate and prepare themselves for the option that the invaders may try to go through the High Road into the Vale (unlikely, but still our duty)
-[] To the Yronwoods, if there is any indication of the Martells attempting to join forces with the suspected Targaryen pretender, in regards to eliminating the Martells in exchange for Dorne and other enticements.
-[] To King's Landing, making an offer of generous terms to Kevan Lannister for a peaceful surrender. Oaths are to be given before the Seven and the High Septon that Cersei and Joffrey shall be given a fair trial in accordance to the law. Tommen shall forswear any claims and confess to being a bastard, after which, he will be remanded to a Sept or sent to the Citadel, his choice.
-[] Now that Stannis has the backing of Three of the Seven Kingdoms and an army of equal comparison to the Reach host raised for Renly's banner, see if any Stormlords are willing to strike their banners and swear to Stannis. If they do this, they will be offered total clemency for their actions.

[] March to confront Renly's host, while keeping a screening force not only ahead of you, but to your rear as well.
-[] Have Blackfish take a scouting for to gain information on this supposed Targaryen pretender invading with the Golden Company, he's the most suited to doing so, and should be able to avoid engaging in open battle while Stannis is busy with Renly.
-[] Send a sizable detachment of troops with instructions to prevent any food from making it inside King's Landing, do this in conjunction with the fleet cutting the city off at sea. Make sure the Lannisters cannot make a breakout or try to escape if at all possible.
--[] See if it is possible to send raiding forces over the Blackwater to harass and disrupt the supply lines of Renly's host.
 
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I feel we should attempt to parley with Aegon.
Hell no House Targaryen lost fair and square, they're not getting the throne back. House Baratheon rules Westeros now and as Robert's true heir it is Stannis' duty to sit his ass on the world's most uncomfortable chair. He may not enjoy being king but he will do it as part of his duty, and Aegon most likely already plan to give Storm's End and Lord Paramountship of the Stormlands to Jon Connington anyway.
 
[X] Plan Who Needs Shadow Babies

This is the best plan I've seen so far. We need to deal with Renly first, as he's still the biggest threat, and if we win any sort of victory over him there's a very good chance of turning a good portion of his supporters to our side. Meanwhile, we start working to starve the capital, a tactic we know from canon is likely to be effective and could save us having to later take the city by storm. We also send the Blackfish to gain more information on what FAegon is up to, so that we aren't flailing around in the dark where he's concerned.

Simple, but effective. Much better than going for a full assault on King's Landing right off the bat and risking one of our enemies coming up from our rear and smashing us against the walls. That was the exact mistake Stannis made in canon, remember.

Also, I'm a little confused why so many people think there's zero chance to flip Tarly. Stannis and Tarly are cousins by marriage and we can offer him a hell of a lot. The fact that he didn't back Stannis in canon doesn't mean much, as Stannis was in a massively inferior position then and backing him would have likely lead to House Tarly getting screwed.
 
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