Winter is Coming: House Stark Quest

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.
[X] No.

Down south those Dornish shits are laughing at this war, we should crush those bastards in the future when they inevitably pull a dick move.

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.
[X] No.

It's a powerful move Stannis (or rather Davos, truly that man is wasted on Stannis) has carried out here. Purely on instinct, I actually want to say yes. I did not expect that.

And yet, thinking rationally about it, it's still a poor choice.

What do we want? Do we want the Iron Throne?

Fuck no.

The Iron Throne is schmuck bait. We win it, we'll have to hold it. We hold it, we'll have to deal with any gods-damned contender who wants it. Quite possibly including a false dragon employing the Golden Company, and a lady in possession of three real dragons. And once you're on that throne, there's no way back. You either keep it, or you die.

What do we actually want? We want peace. We want safety for the North and our family.

Renly's numerical superiority over Stannis is such, that even with our forces on Stannis's side, the issue would still be very much in doubt. And while Stannis is superior in skill, Renly has Tarly working for him. And has the reserves to absorb several painful defeats to teach him the humility to listen and still win afterwards.

Pretty much the only scenario where Stannis wins is one where Renly dies due to some freak occurrence. Without Melisandre in play, we can't count on that. And even in canon, Renly was not foolish enough to lead from the front.

Meanwhile, if Renly wins and we haven't gotten involved with Stannis, all we need to do to achieve our goals is to bend the knee.

Don't be blinded by sentimentality or ambition. Do what it is right for the North, our family and our subjects and vote no.

[X] Sansa will remain unattached. Lord Arryn will have to find a bride elsewhere.
[X] Yes.

Did Arya even get to meet Jaqen this time around? Would be pretty darn useful to have one of those three deaths be Renly and the other two saved for Daenerys and Faegon.

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.


Now regarding the matter of brothers Baratheon and the betrothal option... right now House Baratheon is a dumpster fire that will burn down anyone too close to it. The smart play is to politely decline, arguing that betrothal to Shireen would be better used shoring up ties and loyalty with Dorne, but certain economic concessions and investments would be welcome. Then drag out those negotiations and make no massive moves on behalf of either brother. If support must be sent to Stannis let it be as reparations and fealty from House Lannister from either Kevan or Tyrion. Let the brothers bleed each other white and then when Daenerys or Faegon show up with dragons, introduce them to their long lost brother Jon (whom we fostered and protected), and have Robb marry Daenerys.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

Call this one Plan Waffle. I'm hesitant about committing Sansa to Harry, especially after the last betrothal fiasco, but maybe we can get the two of them in a room together and see what happens before committing. As for other southron affairs, backing Stannis is pretty much the only move unless we're going to tell everything south of the Neck to go fuck itself and withdraw. Marrying Shireen, again a little hesitant, I think she'd be good for Robb but that's a permanent commitment to the south that I don't know if we want. The caveat at the end is, I think, gonna be our SOP: Winterfell's Rogue Princess Shelter.

No fucking way. Stannis is is the shitties of kings. That would literally go down in flames so fast it isn't even funny.

Shireen is a lesser, disfigured and likely sterile bride of a disgraced house. Our involvement is all he needs to win the war. Flat out.

Ask for the goddamn moon here or nothing.

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.
[X] No.

It's imporant to note that if we actively back Stannis, he'll support the North and Night's Watch against the Wildlings.

We just have to win against Renly...it won't be easy. But maybe we can improve our odds.
If we can negotiate with the Lannisters, persuade Stannis to assure them they'll hold onto the Rock, we might be able to get their support as well. Robb was thinking along those lines a bit during the update.

Since we have a write in option, why don't we make a counter offer aside from the marriage to Shireen. We could cite that we refuse because we believe that any commitment or every permanent stay in the south is disastrous for a Stark, or something along those lines.

Instead we could ask that besides those knights that would go to the Night Watch we also get food from the Reach at greatly discounted prices (if not completely free) for at least 10 to more years.

Icefyre said:

Did Arya even get to meet Jaqen this time around? Would be pretty darn useful to have one of those three deaths be Renly and the other two saved for Daenerys and Faegon.

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If Robb hadn't absurdly stomped and Ned hadn't miraculously survived, there would have been an Arya chapter titled "Three Names."

I fell victim to the sin of metagaming. Please ignore.

I might change my vote later but this is my perspective right now.

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.

This is one of the best matches we can hope for and it's being handed to us on a silver platter. I'm pretty sure that Sansa will be fine with anyone who isn't named Joffrey at this point. This match will also ensure that the Vale is tied to us and we could use that kind of security going forward.


[X] No.

Stannis is in a bad spot right now and even if we were to join him, Renly would still have numerical superiority.

(The North, Vale, Riverlands) = ~80,000*

(The Reach and Stormlands) =~ 110,000*

(Stannis' possible strength = ~12,000 (10-15k)

*These are generous estimates, not counting the logistical difficulties of amassing the armies and possible overlap between lords who might declare for the King that the majority of their region doesn't recognize.

If we don't support Stannis, Renly will (pending divine intervention) win and forgive us easily for our lukewarm support of Stannis and we'll get to keep all the men and resources that we would have spent trying to beat him. We'd be in a pretty good spot and our family and holdings will likely be secure.

If we do support Stannis, we will have a hard battle ahead of us for dubious rewards. I don't think Robb will be content to be Shireen's sperm donor. He's being offered King Consort, giving him little to no power in the running of Westeros and he'll be giving up his birthright of Winterfell in the process. Even if he did get any power out of the deal, do we want that? We'd tie ourselves to Stannis, sink or swim and when those dragons get here, I'd prefer to be as far from that throne as possible, thank you very much.

And that scenario is if we win against Renly. If we lose, we'd likely have to make concessions (If we survive). Renly probably wouldn't demand stringent reprisals if he wants to hold the realm together but we would definitely come out way worse than if we never got involved in the first place.

If Stannis does pull off a miracle and wins without our support, he'll probably grind his teeth about it for years, but he's not going to go to war against three kingdoms that recognize his authority anyway. Especially once more threats become apparent.

TL;DR Not providing military aid to Stannis is the safest bet no matter how the dice rolls.

Edit: Ninja'd by a few people.

Another problem with joining Stannis and putting the fragments of the Seven Kingdoms back together is that the North will always be or become the periphery of the kingdom. It is the natural state of things due to its geographical position in the kingdom. It's the part that's most neglected because it's isolated from the rest and far away. We see this time and again through the lack of support the North receives towards, among others, the manning of the Wall. Until the North becomes independent, it'll never be able to utilize it resources appropriately and a marriage isn't going to change that, only postpone it.

pbluekan said:

Stannis is is the shitties of kings.

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Did you miss Joffrey in canon?

pbluekan said:

likely sterile bride

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Not according to the QM

Mal-3 said:

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

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Hmmm.... These options do seem very IC though...

Perhaps, too metagamey with my last post, I was. Meditate on this, I must.

Frankly, it's a little late in the game to back out now.

The Valelords want Renly's head after Yohn's quick-witted stunt, viewing him as guilty of manipulating them and murdering their beloved Lord Paramount. Relatively to that, Robb has done little to ingratiate himself with the rose of Valish chivalry: They're not going to be happy if we back out in pursuing a war with King Renly, and might very well throw their weight behind Stannis regardless. Which means, if we tie Sansa to Harry, we might very well be called into the war by familial obligations.

And frankly, Renly is just everything bad about Robert's reign, just with the Lannister serial numbers filed off and replaced by Tyrell ones. And as long as we have to consider rivermen interests, a semi-strong central authority is honestly to our benefit. Renly isn't the man to even try and keep the speeding freight train that is the Seven Kingdoms on track. But Stannis with a blood marriage to Robb?

Marry Sansa to Harrold and install Tyrion in Casterly Rock. This'll put three of paramounties in Stannis's corner and have at least a fairly neutral lord in the westerlands. If we can put down Renly (which we probably can: The Reach is something of a paper tiger in all honestly, Mace Tarly or no), then Stannis can assimilate the Stormlands and work on installing new leadership in the Reach - probably the Florents, for all their... Florentiness. That'll be a coalition that can keep the Seven Kingdoms together fairly tightly for at least two generations: Enough time to stabilize the Iron Thrones rule and get things relatively back in hand.

Walpurgis Knight said:

Hmmm.... These options do seem very IC though...

Perhaps, too metagamey with my last post, I was. Meditate on this, I must.

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Yeah, if anything a lot of the votes are metagamey--worrying about Dany and her dragons, or Aegon and the Golden Company etc. isn't something that should come into play in the vote, because none of that is shit that the character(s) we're playing knows about. If we tie ourselves to Stannis out of honor, duty and whatnot that's fine, because it's what the Starks would do in this situation. Does that increase the risk of failure? Well, yeah. But it increases the risk of failure in a very in-character way.

(And to be honest, my bit about offering Shireen refuge if everything goes tits-up is both IC, in that Ned would insist on as few dead innocents over this idiocy as possible, and metagaming because I really like Shireen and don't want her to get killed because you jackholes don't like her dad. And let's not front here: if Renly wins that's how her story ends.)

[X] Sansa will marry Lord Harrold Arryn and become Lady of the Vale, renewing ties to the North and Riverlands.
[X] No.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

Changing my vote and getting IC. They are honorable choices and honor hasn't screwed the Starks yet in this timeline, so there's little reason they'd be opposed to going about it this way. Robb is off to another war.

'Make way for the Iceberg of Justice! Stannis King! Stannis King!'

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

Renly's strength is honestly exaggerated, both by his own inability as a military commander and the fact that the Reach is just sort of inherently brittle.

A good example of the degree of the Reachlords loyalty to their feudal overlords can be found in canon, when the chivalry of the Reach literally defects en masse to Stannis Baratheon when they were planning to kill him under Renly's banner the day before. The chivalry that represents the Tyrell's direct bannermen and the bulk of the Reach's noble aristocracy.

The houses of the Reach have honestly mercurial loyalty to the Tyrell's at best. At worst, basically half the noble lords of the Reach actively want their title and holdings. If we can poke a hole in Renly's momentum while he's hundreds of miles away from King's Landing, I'd honestly be willing to bet we'd be hearing offers from ambitious Reach lords within a few weeks. A month at most.

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

Inserted tally

[X] Not yes, but not no either. Our beloved sister has been through a lot of bullshit these past few months, and packing her off to the Vale straight away seems... unkind. If Lord Harry (and his puppeteers, but let's not say that in the reply letter) would but give her some time to adjust after leaving the Lannister/Waters court, perhaps a more formal introduction of the two...?
[X] We will support King Stannis. It is after all the right thing to do. We will defer the question of betrothal until after we've sorted out Renly. With the caveat that, should the war go against us, Princess Shireen will be welcome and safe in Winterfell at any point.

We should invite Stannis to the Riverlands and wait out the Renly vs Cersei war. The only point Renly can attack us is the Stoney Sept and if he tries to do that without defeating Cersei first, he'll either have to deal with the Lannisters first, or fight us with Lannister armies attacking his flank. If the Lannisters don't lose as badly as they did to us, we should have a decent shot at winning this thing.