Winter is Coming: House Stark Quest
- Thread starter Charcolt
- Start date
- Location
- Tel'aran'rhiod
We'll want to pull an Allies before D-Day at least, large camp and multiple fires about and probably some mock-ups of siege weapons, have the freys patrolling the walls as well
- Location
- Australia
[X] Plan Cteatus 1.0
I'm convinced.
I'm convinced.
NuclearConsensus
Herald of the Thorned One
- Location
- the Philippines
[X] Plan Cteatus 1.0
Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
But we'll do them all with a small degree of incompetence. Some tents will clearly not be occupied, some fires will be allowed to die before being rekindled, some 'siege weapons' will be totally botched up, the Freys along the walls will seem unconcerned about the host below them... and so on and so on... Little things here and there that might not be picked up at first glance but a trained eye will intuit a pattern from.
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Shapeless Phobos
Filthy Casual
[X] Plan Cteatus 1.0
The only way to make it better is to have the Freys with us play a little ditty Tywin might know at some point.
The only way to make it better is to have the Freys with us play a little ditty Tywin might know at some point.
- Location
- Europe
[X] Plan Amnon
Plan Amnon seems perfectly workable and reasonable, and with no viable alternatives, I'll vote for it. I have no idea why so many people think the plan Cleatus is workable. It requires your opponent to act in a specific way in order for you to avoid ruin. Relying on your enemy to make a mistake, in this case multiple mistakes, is a horrible idea for a stratagem. Basically, in order for this plan to succeed, Tywin and Jamie have to act in a certain way and make certain mistakes while we have to precisely execute a pincer movement with two armies that can't reliably communicate with each other.
To point out some likely failure states. Tywin could not find out about our fake siege in time or think it some kind of different rouse rather than the one we want him to believe. Even if he decides to believe our rouse, he could decide to reinforce and warn Jaime's army about the attack on him, which should be more than enough to ensure victory against our vastly smaller army. He could also do as the plan believes he'll do and try and attack us with both of his armies, a rather risky proposition considering he's already in a favourable position. Maybe we manage to pull off the reverse pincer and attack his armies from both sides, but this is far from certain. It's just at likely or even more likely that the Lannister armies will manage to capture Robb's host between them and annihilate us or that the timing of our pincer attack will be poorly coordinated and allow Tywin to defeat our army piecemeal.
Basically, the plan is what an arm-chair general would come up with after a campaign as an obvious way it should have conducted, despite the fact that the execution of such a plan would never be possible in reality due to it's large number of failure points.
EDIT: Also, I can't say I'm a fan of the QM blatantly supporting one plan over others but then again, @Charcolt can do whatever the hell she wants since it's her quest.
Plan Amnon seems perfectly workable and reasonable, and with no viable alternatives, I'll vote for it. I have no idea why so many people think the plan Cleatus is workable. It requires your opponent to act in a specific way in order for you to avoid ruin. Relying on your enemy to make a mistake, in this case multiple mistakes, is a horrible idea for a stratagem. Basically, in order for this plan to succeed, Tywin and Jamie have to act in a certain way and make certain mistakes while we have to precisely execute a pincer movement with two armies that can't reliably communicate with each other.
To point out some likely failure states. Tywin could not find out about our fake siege in time or think it some kind of different rouse rather than the one we want him to believe. Even if he decides to believe our rouse, he could decide to reinforce and warn Jaime's army about the attack on him, which should be more than enough to ensure victory against our vastly smaller army. He could also do as the plan believes he'll do and try and attack us with both of his armies, a rather risky proposition considering he's already in a favourable position. Maybe we manage to pull off the reverse pincer and attack his armies from both sides, but this is far from certain. It's just at likely or even more likely that the Lannister armies will manage to capture Robb's host between them and annihilate us or that the timing of our pincer attack will be poorly coordinated and allow Tywin to defeat our army piecemeal.
Basically, the plan is what an arm-chair general would come up with after a campaign as an obvious way it should have conducted, despite the fact that the execution of such a plan would never be possible in reality due to it's large number of failure points.
EDIT: Also, I can't say I'm a fan of the QM blatantly supporting one plan over others but then again, @Charcolt can do whatever the hell she wants since it's her quest.
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Cteatus
A Guy Who Fell Down a Hole
Its not particularly workable.
Amnon is basically ceding the Twins entirely to Tywin since the force we're leaving couldn't possibly hold it. Which means we also have to hope Lord Frey doesn't get a secret message out to Tywin warning him.
It also means we'll have to deal with 4000 Frey troops switching sides since we've betrayed their lord and their army.
- Location
- Europe
Just in case you didn't read the plan properly, I'll quote it for you:
It quite clearly says that we'll pretend to besiege Twins. We're not actually going to do it or betray the Freys and lose 4000 troops. That'd be idiotic. Lord Frey has no reason to send a message to Tywin.
Additionally, the troops we'll leave behind will be more than enough to hold the Twins against Tywin's army, which is roughly equal in size or a little larger. Siege battles require a significant force advantage and Tywin simply won't have the time to properly besiege the Twins. We'll return after having defeated Jaime's army and gathered up the scattered Riverlords in order to defeat Tywin's army with our combined army.
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- Location
- Asia
[X] Plan Cteatus 1.0
Charcolt
Comic Fan
I think all the plans are hilarious, and well fitting with a quest which isn't going to take itself very seriously (see tags). All have a sort of swiss cheese look to them, but letting things be a little flexible is how everybody has a good time. In that spirit I'm going to giggle about and discuss whatever seems outrageous and happily write whatever y'all vote for.
We'll likely be rolling (Roleplaying Dice Roller · Rolz) at noon (EST)!
By the way I forgot to post this:
[] Plan Charcolt 1.0
-[] The rivers have proven themselves unfriendly to House Tully, and you shall not risk Lord Tywin's foul mastery of them. Retreat the bulk of your forces to the Stony Shore.
--[] There you will construct a fleet of ships to rival the Iron Fleet of House Greyjoy.
--[] One tenth of your foot will sail the long way around Westeros and sack King's Landing,rescuing your father and sisters.
--[] The rest of you will conquer the Wildlings.
-[] Use your remaining gold to assassinate Edmure Tully.
--[] Having instantly become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, disband your troops and raise them again behind Lord Tywin.
--[] Surprise, motherfucker
-[] Elope with Fat Walda
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Mal-3
Fun Tyrant
As this is a spiritual successor to the Big Bobby B Quest, I'm totally okay with QM nudging us in the direction of crazy awesome when we're acting too cautious and/or ~@~realistic~@~. Let's see what sort of lunacy we can get away with, yeah?
Cteatus
A Guy Who Fell Down a Hole
I did read the plan properly.
But I don't think we can really afford to be leaving a sizeable portion of our forces at the Twins, which is basically ceding the Twins to the Lannisters. And that means losing any semblance of Frey loyalty. Moreover even if we did, besieging the Twins from the North means Tywin can cut us off from the North himself.
- Location
- Europe
Well, I'm all for trying to recreate the glory that was Cockland, or at least it's spiritual successsor. I'm just going to vote for plans that actually have a realistic chance of accomplishing this.
What? How? Why?
.....
How do we cede the Twins the the Lannisters by leaving most of our army there to guard it? What sort of mental gymnastics did you have to do in order to arrive at that conclusion?
Cteatus
A Guy Who Fell Down a Hole
My assumption is that leaving Robb's forces at the Twins to garrison it would spread the rest of our forces too thin.
Edit:
And just for the record Plan Amnon doesnt' actually specify that the Northern forces stay to garrison the Twins. It says Cross the Twins which implies meeting up with Robb's men.
Which makes it a breeze for Tywin to take the Twins and butcher everyone inside.
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Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
No thinner than the canon plan would, I would think.
Charcolt
Comic Fan
I can say here that no plan posted (including my own) is nonviable. Each has a chance of doing better than canon, around the same, or worse. You should all feel happy that it's practically impossible to do worse than my test rolls where Tywin got a natural 100 on seeing through any cunning schemes and caught Robb between his and Jaime's armies!
I've examined the Westerlands carefully and tragically have failed to see much beyond a mostly blonde Florida in the form of Kayce. The whole thing sort of resembles a witch's head, I guess? With that in mind, I will offer a one-time bonus to the player who comes up with the most creative and stupid things the Westerlands would look like if partitioned in a certain way. Let's say a free plus or minus 20 to a roll of their choice.
I've examined the Westerlands carefully and tragically have failed to see much beyond a mostly blonde Florida in the form of Kayce. The whole thing sort of resembles a witch's head, I guess? With that in mind, I will offer a one-time bonus to the player who comes up with the most creative and stupid things the Westerlands would look like if partitioned in a certain way. Let's say a free plus or minus 20 to a roll of their choice.
- Location
- Europe
Yeah, I'm just going to stop arguing with you, since nothing constructive will come of it.
I'm trying, really trying to figure out how you came to this conclusion. Like, what do you consider a weakly held castle? The only change I offered was that we not waste thousands of lives and keep the entire Northern foot out of the entire war like in canon, the garrisons at Moat Cailin (200 bowmen) and at the Twins (400 Freys, 400 Northemen under Tallhart) remain the same. Both are more than enough to hold Tywin back.
Tywin can't take Moat Cailin and the Twins. Period. This isn't a question of making an overly elaborate plan oversaturated with fail points to get Tywin to not take the Twins easily, Tywin is not going to take the Twins.
He'll need to storm one castle and suffer heavy casualties, then his men would have to storm death alley across the bridge to try and strom the second castle and suffer massive casualties there, and at the end of the day all he has to show for it is that he "cut us off from the North"? Who gives a fuck? He just lost a major portion of his men, Jamie is fucked anyway because Tywin can't possibly keep pace with us, and now Tywin has an army severely weakend from the starting ~20,000 vs our army of 22,000+ Northmen and Freys and Mallisters plus close on the 11,000 Riverlords that Edmure gathers for the Battle of the Fords.
The Twins is not Harrnehal, it does not require an actual army to properly hold. That's the entire point of castles. Look at what Rolland Storm did in Dragonstone with like a couple dozen men - Over a thousand battle veteran knights and lordlings of the Lannisters were felled by the dregs that Stannis left behind. What do you think 800 soldiers in a perfect defensive position with good lines of fire is going to do to Tywin's host?
And in the time it would take Tywin to build the siege engine he needs to lay siege to the Twins, Robb can just go directly to King's Landing and end the war. So right off the bat there is no way Tywin would invest the time with a castle that gives him nothing.
In contrast, you want to intentionally get Tywin between us and our infantry, with so many points of failure it isn't even funny. All it takes is for us to miss one of his scouts, or for one of our scouts keeping in contact with the other host to fall to the Lannisters, and we are fucked. Game over fucked.
And worse of all, Tywin has every reason to figure this plan out because he starts already knowing that the siege is fake and the infantry can come from his rear.
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Charcolt
Comic Fan
That Tywin Lannister's a clever one to be sure. Truth be told the smartest plan may to be mirror canon and minimize the potential risks. With some smarter decisions and better luck elsewhere, Tywin Lannister and thousands of men could prove completely irrelevant. And you can always count on Jaime not being as smart as his old man!
I'm not saying to not be bold though. This is still at its core a barely serious wish fulfillment story and thus the dice are more weighted in your favor than is realistic (while still having the potential for failure; Robert only survived at one point in the previous quest because an enemy got a natural 1 on their final attack).
You all still have until noon EST to come up with new plans or pile behind a different one.
I'm not saying to not be bold though. This is still at its core a barely serious wish fulfillment story and thus the dice are more weighted in your favor than is realistic (while still having the potential for failure; Robert only survived at one point in the previous quest because an enemy got a natural 1 on their final attack).
You all still have until noon EST to come up with new plans or pile behind a different one.
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Walpurgis Knight
Guardian of Folkvang
- Location
- Union of Cascadian Socialist Republics (UCSR)
Mmmm... Yeah, never mind. I have been officially unconvinced.
[X] Plan Amnon