[X] The boy with the cold gaze.
I'm torn between the two nobles. I agree the commoner has the potential to be the strongest but I'm not sure how that helps us. We already have a great friendship with Xiaoli and a decent one with Suyin if we need help from someone stronger. The nobles could offer other benefits, and of the two I think the standoffish one will be the hardest to befriend normally. So let's room with him right now and make a connection that way.
Good news, there's a two week period before we have to start fighting for rank, and we have 2 weeks worth of Celestial Lavender. We can still build towards making a good show of it with how close we are to finishing Stone Skin, we either finish Stone Skin and try to gamble on Defense Cultivation, or maybe try and get either the Strength boost or an Offensive Art instead.