The Lonely Lioness - Cersei Lannister Quest

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Tjf said:
We should agree to Olenna's request - on the condition that Renly be our guest at King's Landing for the duration of the war - he'll have freedom of movement around King's Landing and all the liberties of his tank, but with a Lannister guard to follow him. When the war is over, provided he hasn't tried anything, he'll be free to return to rule the Stormlands once more.
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I don't think she's offering Renly's surrender - what Olenna wants is for us to offer mercy once Renly is defeated. This serves two purposes - firstly, it avoids breaking her son's heart, and it also keeps the new Lannister regime distinctly weak, increasing House Tyrell's leverage and ensuring they also have an Option B should the marriage with Joff go poorly.
MSH said:
Maybe just formal abdication and disinheritance? Who's currently heir to the Stormlands?
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That'd be Stannis, then Shireen, and then you're getting into a bunch of Baratheon cadet houses and Robert's bastards.

[X] Plan: Thankless Job
-[X] [Debt] Heavily tax sin and indulgences like prostitution and alcohol.
-[X] [Marriage] A pardon is too much, but you are willing to accept exiling him to Essos.
--[X] Garlan 'the Gallant' will also be offered the position of Master of Laws, should the Tyrells accept.

An Essosi exile isn't amazing, but Renly's ability to pose a long-term threat like the Blackfyres is starkly limited by his natural proclivities, as Cersei would know. Leaving him as a Lord-Paramount is flatly unacceptable, however.

Another option would just be, uh, to lie. Promise we're going to pardon Renly, but once the war has been won ... not do that. It'd badly damage our relationship with the Tyrells, but if Renly's already been defeated and Joff/Margaery married, they're kinda already in too deep to back out.
 
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I'm pretty torn on taxing on "sin and indulgences" and just issuing a general wartime tax, though I do think that exiling Renly is the best option. Honestly I think we could get away with it, without even offering a position on the small council.
 
Taut_Templar said:
That'd be Stannis, then Shireen, and then you're getting into a bunch of Baratheon cadet houses and Robert's bastards.
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I'm sensing a good opportunity for musical chairs here. We're killing Stannis, there's almost no doubt about that. Shireen is...acceptable, and her fate is out of our hands. Cadet branches I'm not sure there's even canon info on.

Alternatively, we could require Renly to magic up an acceptable bastard for us in the near future.

One thing I will say is that I think there are very high odds of Joffrey just ignoring the pardon deal and having him killed if it isn't sufficiently harsh.
 
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MSH said:
I'm sensing a good opportunity for musical chairs here. We're killing Stannis, there's almost no doubt about that. Shireen is...acceptable, and her fate is out of our hands. Cadet branches I'm not sure there's even canon info on.

Alternatively, we could require Renly to magic up an acceptable bastard for us in the near future.
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My vague plan for the Stormlands was to have Tommen wed Shireen (should she still be alive once this ends) and become the new Lord Paramount once he came of age, yeah. It could only be something imposed after a victorious war, though, rather than the diplomatic maneuvering we've relied on thus far.
 
Taut_Templar said:
My vague plan for the Stormlands was to have Tommen wed Shireen (should she still be alive once this ends) and become the new Lord Paramount once he came of age, yeah. It could only be something imposed after a victorious war, though, rather than the diplomatic maneuvering we've relied on thus far.
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It can only be solidified after the war, but it might hold for a year or two while we "rescue" (or actually rescue) Shireen from her insane pyromaniac rebel father. Paper lords are good enough to get control of the Stormland levies.

And if she dies before then, well...more's the pity. Good King Joffrey will have to select a worthy replacement.
 
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[X] Plan: Cersei the Pious
-[X] [Debt] Heavily tax sin and indulgences like prostitution and alcohol.
-[X] [Debt] Take out more loans from the Faith.
-[X] [Marriage] A pardon is too much, but you are willing to accept exiling him to Essos.
--[X] Garlan 'the Gallant' will also be offered the position of Master of Laws, should the Tyrells accept.

We're already throwing in with the faith, and the tax on sin will hitter them up a little. I think it's worth it for a second method of repayments.

Also consider - it's much easier to bribe or intimidate the faith later on to reduce their debts then it is the Iron Bank.

With Garlan I think we're practically guaranteed a deal. Conveniently, he's also a good general, something we're very much in need of.

Edit: Hey… we could make Myrcella heir to the Storms End as Roberts daughter, and perhaps offer her hand to Bran Stark or Trystane Martell? I had previously been considering offering her hand to Robb Stark to replace the Sansa-Joffrey betrothal, trying to make peace with the North.

I think we need to accept Tywins desire to make Tommen heir to Casterly Rock.
 
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Parzival95 said:
We're already throwing in with the faith, and the tax on sin will hitter them up a little. I think it's worth it for a second method of repayments.

Also consider - it's much easier to bribe or intimidate the faith later on to reduce their debts then it is the Iron Bank.
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I'm just keeping in mind there's almost certainly more stuff we'll have to spend money on. Keeping another Faith loan available for, say, working on the Royal Fleet sounds like a sound idea. Meanwhile, I'm not sure if the return on pleasing the Iron Bank is worth the opportunity cost. The important thing is that they're satisfied the Throne is still paying, and a single option accomplishes that.
 
I dunno, I just think we should do more than the bare minimum to keep the Iron Bank from feeling that we're stringing them along while the war is on.

Also, goddamn, what are good betrothals for Myrcella and Tommen that aren't fucking Starks, Martells, or Robin fucking Arryn, Christ. All families that hate our guts.

Edit: The Yronwoods have historical animosity with the Martells… Cletus the heir for a potential match?
 
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Parzival95 said:
Also, goddamn. what are good betrothals for Myrcella and Tommen that aren't fucking Starks, Martells, or Robin fucking Arryn, Christ. All families that hate our guts.
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To be fair here...if we manage to swing a Stark betrothal at least Mycelia will be well taken care of. For all that the Stark dislike the Lannisters(Hate isn't a thing this time because of the abundance of mercy we have shown and no one has died) Robb would probably be a great husband...and we could swing the STAB alliance(minus Baratheon) down here

Edit: As bad as the Starks have gotten it, it was only a generation ago where it was so much fucking worse. Aerys is a low bar but we have cleared it with gusto

[X] Plan: Cersei the Pious
 
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Parzival95 said:
I dunno, I just think we should do more than the bare minimum to keep the Iron Bank from feeling that we're stringing them along while the war is on.
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That'd be the first option. Picking a single option is meeting expectations, and going beyond that is explicitly described as pleasing them. I'm just pointing out that money is tight - is making sure the Iron Bank is extra happy with us really worth the costs, when we'll no doubt have other concerns that require money?
 
It depends on what kind of interest they're charging us. The Iron Bank probably won't have us killed as long as we're making regular payments, but they might get the crown in less decades and more centuries of debt if the principle isn't worked on rapidly.

Let's also not forget that the crown is in debt to Tywin as well. Given that he's...himself, we may need to hold back some potential to pay him. And if Tywin dies, we become indebted to Tyrion, which in objective terms isn't that horrible but in functional terms may cause Cersei to snap and do something inadvisable.
 
A happy Iron Bank is one that is not backing the many Targ claimants, and potentially one that may extend more credit in the future. So yes, I think it's worth doing two actions.
 
[X] Plan: Cersei the Pious

God, I'm so stressed wondering what's going on in the riverlands. It's entirely possible they just took Joffrey hostage and raised the banners for Stannis.
 
I'm confident the bank will always favor getting actual money compared to promises from Targs. They're happy either way, it's just different credit ratings of happiness.

Rationally, you're flipping a coin on any Targ you credit against the throne. Their reputation kind of precedes them. It's entirely likely you never see that money again, and you can't even do the usual shtick because it's also entirely likely they've gotten themselves and everyone who could possibly inherit the debt killed in the meantime.
 
Ah, but the sin tax and faith loan are specifically to please the Iron Bank, and nothing else.

Any of these other options might be better used down the line for other necessary expenses, such as raising levies and improving the fleet, bribes, trade deals, etc.
 
There was at least 1 targ in Braavos, if we please the bank they might throw around some influence to keep them from getting much support there.
 
It hurts to pass on the plan with the ironical name (please make "Cersei the Pious" a canon epithet, @Azel ), but I'm not sold on the merit of taking loans now, when our credit rating is in the toilet meaning the interest rate will be higher, to pay the interest on loans taken out when our credit rating was better.

[X] Plan: Thankless Job
 
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The benefit of taking a loan from the faith instead of the Iron Bank is that they can be repaid in non-monetary manner.

Extremely conveniently, our primary enemies are arch-heretic Stannis, who has converted to a foreign faith worshiping a demon god that rewards burnt septs and human sacrifices with dark magical power, and a farcical number of unrelated Targ claimants, mostly the descendants of bastards and traitors who are otherwise famous for their family's history of madness, cruelty, and disgusting brother-sister incest.

What I'm saying is, the High Septon is in his element with these opponents, and as long as we avoid rebuilding the faith militant and stridently fight off accusations of our own impious actions, we have significant wiggle room for the faith and crown to work together for a very pious dynasty.
 
[X] Plan: Long Summer Debts
-[X] [Debt] Collect a wartime tax from the smallfolk.
-[X] [Marriage] Something else:
--[X] Renly will bend the knee and support Joffery, but post-war will abdicate and renounce his name in exchange for the king's forbearance. If he violates these terms at any time, his life is forfeit. Shireen Baratheon will provisionally succeed him, as Stannis is ineligible and she herself is his captive.
--[X] Garlan 'the Gallant' will also be offered the position of Master of Laws, should the Tyrells accept.

Well, you know how it is. It's always the smallfolk who bear the burden of war. But it's been a long summer.

I don't think loans from the faith are a good idea either, because we're in too deep with them. Similarly, taxes on prostitution and alcohol will massively piss people off way more than a generally expected wartime tax, especially because it might piss off wealthier smallfolk the most. Cynically, it may also make more money for us in the end.

Marriage terms are the musical chairs setup I've been talking about. An explicit "or die" clause hopefully will sate Joffery. It's also not technically a pardon, but a deferred death sentence, so it saves face on the mercy to a rebel thing.
 
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