The Lonely Lioness - Cersei Lannister Quest

I think there is some important synergy with this option we cannot miss:
[] [Sanse] Send her home as agreed with Eddard Stark. (Write-In escorts and route)

-[] [Sansa] Keep her hostage for the time being. She is still good leverage against the Starks.
-[] Letter: Write to Riverrun, offering to appoint Edmure as Hand of the King implicitly in exchange for raising their banners for Joffrey and condemning the Apostate Pretenders. Offer what concessions we can to sweeten the pot, including the status of Sansa, possible betrothals, further court appointments in King's Landing, etc.
[] [Eddard] Send him to the Wall by land. You trust that he will honor the agreement and not try to renege on it once he is in the North.

Were Eddard Stark any other man I would be very dubious at the prospect of just letting him go under present circumstances. A reasonable person might conclude that an oath made under duress is no oath to keep . If he were a reasonable man he would not be in this position as he would not have tried to get Cersei to run or at the very least he would have believed Baelish when he said he could not be trusted

[] [Sansa] Keep her hostage for the time being. She is still good leverage against the Starks.

That said keep Sansa, if Eddard is not dead but abdicated Rob will still be Lord Paramount and he will need a reason not to do something silly. The threat to his sister should do it. If he wants her back he is going to have to make some concessions
Guys, remember the previous story post. Eddard refused to abdicate until Sansa's status was questioned. He was also pissed off at Baelish betraying his word and promised to get better. I think if we want Eddard to stick to his word and the North to stay at home and prepare for winter, we need to release them both, together.

In canon Sansa was kept in KL, and it didn't stop Robb's campaign a bit. Edmure might not be interested in the matter that much, since he's not the vassal of the King in the North yet, and doesn't have Queen Mother Catelyn probing him on the matter. So keeping Sansa when, as the post points out, it was agreed with Eddard to release them together, puts us in the canon situation, but there's also a pissed off Ned telling his family not to trust us. Yeah, on paper, having a hostage sounds more logical, but it didn't work out so well in canon, and might just destroy the agreement with Ned to keep out. Let him do that and have the Starks focus on searching for Arya, instead of winning Sansa back.

Though the gamble with offering Edmure handship is an interesting one, but one I wonder if will be allowed, considering Cersei's character and intended role as keeping the chair warm for Tywin's arrival.
 
[] [Sanse] Send her home as agreed with Eddard Stark. (Write-In escorts and route)
Crap, I completely forgot that was part of the deal. I'll adjust the plan accordingly.
Though the gamble with offering Edmure handship is an interesting one, but one I wonder if will be allowed, considering Cersei's character and intended role as keeping the chair warm for Tywin's arrival.
Truth be told, from Cersei's perspective, wouldn't preventing her father from coming and promptly ruling the roost be a good thing? She wants to stretch her wings, and putting another Lord Paramount in the Hand's position is a clever way of ensuring Tywin can't just give them the boot once he shows up in King's Landing.
 
Crap, I completely forgot that was part of the deal. I'll adjust the plan accordingly.

Truth be told, from Cersei's perspective, wouldn't preventing her father from coming and promptly ruling the roost be a good thing? She wants to stretch her wings, and putting another Lord Paramount in the Hand's position is a clever way of ensuring Tywin can't just give them the boot once he shows up in King's Landing.
Yes, but didn't that schism come later, after Tywin's death? Though that may be just me assuming, simply because Tywin acted to Tyrion as if Cersei was a bumbling agent of his, rather than her own planner. But I like your explanation of her possible motivation.

Yes, like I said, I do like your Tully gambit, and it's certainly something that will throw a wrench in Baelish's plans. Could you also consider
[ ] Speak with local traders to organise better food supplies for the city.
Because IIRC that issue came out rather early, with a food riot taking out one of the kid cousin Lannisters (last seen ahorse), and even one of LF's cronies mysteriously disappeared.

Oh, another thing, the GM specified that sending Sansa away requires write-in route an escort. And while route can be just "same as Eddard's", there is the question of escort, because Baelish WILL want to capture her, and he has enough agents in Vale and Riverlands to do so. Now, since the gamble is to get Edmure's fealty, we may actually risk and allow a big escort for Sansa (no gold cloaks though) to get to Riverrun safely, and then unite our forces.

Let's hope dad doesn't piss off too many Riverlanders in the meantime.
 
Yes, like I said, I do like your Tully gambit, and it's certainly something that will throw a wrench in Baelish's plans. Could you also consider
[ ] Speak with local traders to organise better food supplies for the city.
Because IIRC that issue came out rather early, with a food riot taking out one of the kid cousin Lannisters (last seen ahorse), and even one of LF's cronies mysteriously disappeared.
I considered it, but I'm not sure how much Cersei could actually do to help the issue? The Crown's currently debt-ridden and broke, and that ain't changing so long as Littlefinger's Master of Coin. Pressuring lowborn merchants into lowering their prices might help, but ultimately we need to free up our import routes - the Reach, the Riverlands, and Blackwater Bay. Ideally the Riverlands will remain open, and the sooner we win the civil war, the sooner the other two will return. To that end, the most productive use of our time is bringing in allies and troops, which is what I've elected to focus on.
Oh, another thing, the GM specified that sending Sansa away requires write-in route an escort. And while route can be just "same as Eddard's", there is the question of escort, because Baelish WILL want to capture her, and he has enough agents in Vale and Riverlands to do so. Now, since the gamble is to get Edmure's fealty, we may actually risk and allow a big escort for Sansa (no gold cloaks though) to get to Riverrun safely, and then unite our forces.
Hmm, this is a good point. Using the Goldcloaks is obviously not a great idea, so I guess we should detach some Redcloaks and have them escorted until they reach the North.
 
Hmm, this is a good point. Using the Goldcloaks is obviously not a great idea, so I guess we should detach some Redcloaks and have them escorted until they reach the North.
Escorting nobles of Sansas status usually involves at least a few knights. In no small part to make sure the protection is adequate.

Doubly so if you want those knights to act as envoys to do diplomacy on your behalf.
 
Escorting nobles of Sansas status usually involves at least a few knights. In no small part to make sure the protection is adequate.

Doubly so if you want those knights to act as envoys to do diplomacy on your behalf.
I had been considering sending a group of Redcloaks led by Vylarr, the Captain of the Guard, but it sounds like we need someone more high status. Perhaps we ought to pick a Kingsguard?
 
A Kingsguard with a few lesser knights (so lesser that they don't require names) would be a decent option. Yeah.
Hmm, a few options to pick from. Jaime could work - he'd certainly be fit to negotiate on the behalf of House Lannister if we're having him talk to the Tullys, his loyalty to Cersei is unimpeachable, and he's a brilliant knight. None of the other Kingsguard stand out, but conversely we wouldn't be impacted by their absence meaningfully.
 
[X] Plan: The Tully Gambit
-[X] [Eddard] Send him to the Wall by land. You trust that he will honor the agreement and not try to renege on it once he is in the North.
-[X] [Sansa] Send her home as agreed with Eddard Stark.
--[X] [Escort] Kingsguard Jaime Lannister will lead a detachment of knights to escort the Starks through the Riverlands, but will also be tasked with conducting personal negotiations with the Tullys to help win them over. "Your job is to keep the Wolves out of the war and bring the Trouts in, brother."
-[X] [Coronation] Make a lavish festival for both commoners and nobles alike. You can refill the larders until winter.
-[X] Speak with the Crownlander nobles at court. Ensure their loyalty to Joffrey and aid against the claimants.
-[X] Speak with Baelish. Try to see how trustworthy he is and see if he can be aligned with your goals.
-[X] Adjust the Small Council (Free Action)
--[X] Hand of the King: Edmure Tully
--[X] Master of Laws: 'Bronze' Yohn Royce
--[X] Master of Ships: Renfield Rykker

-[X] Letter: Write to Riverrun, offering to appoint Edmure as Hand of the King implicitly in exchange for raising their banners for Joffrey and condemning the Apostate Pretenders. Offer what concessions we can to sweeten the pot, such as possible betrothals, further court appointments in King's Landing, etc.
-[X] Letter: Write to the Iron Bank, promise you will pay, hint at Lannister gold and reputation for paying their debts. Ask that a envoy be sent that you may discuss affairs as the representative of King Joffrey.
-[X] Letter: Write to the Eyrie, using the status of our 'beloved' brother Tyrion as an excuse to sound out Lysa Arryn's current intent and loyalties. If we can prevent the Imp from being thrown out the Eyrie, so much the better.
-[X] Letter: Write to Casterly Rock, informing Lord Paramount Tywin Lannister of the events in King's Landing, including the revelation of Tyrion's captivity in the Vale. Inform him we're working to secure the Imp's release, but to avoid further retaliation against the Tullys due to needing their allegiance against the Baratheon pretenders.
 
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Write to Runestone, offering Yohn Royce the position of Master of Laws and praising his reputable integrity, which is badly needed after the inept, absent leadership of the fruit Renly.
Yohn Royce and his son Robar are currently at court in Kings Landing.
Andar was there for the tourney of the hand too, but has since returned to Runestone.
 
Yohn Royce and his son Robar are currently at court in Kings Landing.
Wow, how remarkably convenient. I assume he was in John Arryn's camp, so he might not have the highest opinion of Cersei and the Lannisters. Still, outright turning down the offer would be tantamount to declaring for one of the Pretenders, which would be rather impolitic.

Renfield Rykker has almost no canonical presence whatosever, but as Lord of Duskendale I figured he worked as a 'major' Crownlander lord and someone with at least some experience with maritime concerns, as well as a personal grievance with Blackwater Bay being blockaded.
 
Renfield Rykker has almost no canonical presence whatosever, but as Lord of Duskendale I figured he worked as a 'major' Crownlander lord and someone with at least some experience with maritime concerns, as well as a personal grievance with Blackwater Bay being blockaded.
Rykker is a bit of a spicy pick due to his father fighting for Aerys II and getting forced to the Wall for it. Cersei is not entirely sure how well inclined Renfield is to the Lannisters.

He'd definitely be a good pick though due to Duskendale's maritime relevance.
 
Rykker is a bit of a spicy pick due to his father fighting for Aerys II and getting forced to the Wall for it. Cersei is not entirely sure how well inclined Renfield is to the Lannisters.
Whoo, spicy's the right word for that. Still, he represents exactly the issue with the Crownlands - their support for King Joffrey is rather lukewarm, given memories of the Sack and Robert's Rebellion in general. But they also currently represent our present powerbase, so we've gotta give them some enticement to not half-ass their support; hopefully, Rykker's appointment will combo with the diplo action and work on fostering some genuine enthusiasm for a war that's currently looking dicey.
 
Hmm, a few options to pick from. Jaime could work - he'd certainly be fit to negotiate on the behalf of House Lannister if we're having him talk to the Tullys, his loyalty to Cersei is unimpeachable, and he's a brilliant knight. None of the other Kingsguard stand out, but conversely we wouldn't be impacted by their absence meaningfully.
Yeah, but Jaime is also a proud and rash jerk at the time, who rushed to try and murder/harm Ned Stark in the streets the moment he felt angry. Maybe send someone more diplomatic, like Swann, or even Oakheart? Heck, Sandor would at least make sure to keep Sansa safe, but he's probably a bit too low-ranking for a noble, it might be considered a slight (even though he's the LC at the moment).
 
Yeah, but Jaime is also a proud and rash jerk at the time, who rushed to try and murder/harm Ned Stark in the streets the moment he felt angry. Maybe send someone more diplomatic, like Swann, or even Oakheart? Heck, Sandor would at least make sure to keep Sansa safe, but he's probably a bit too low-ranking for a noble, it might be considered a slight (even though he's the LC at the moment).
Well, Swann isn't in the Kingsguard yet, so he's not an option. Aerys is more viable, but he was literally just sworn in - it feels strange to have him handle something so important to House Lannister, although I think he's work fine if it were just guarding the Starks.

Ultimately, while Jaime's judgment leaves something to be desired, he's still the firstborn son of Tywin Lannister in addition to being a genuinely very good knight. He has a lot of credence as a negotiator and a simple figure of importance, and will also make sure no bullshit occurs on the road to fuck up the Stark situation at the last second. Not to mention he's probably smarting about getting passed over for Sandor by his own son, so giving him something important to do might be for the best.
 
Well, Swann isn't in the Kingsguard yet, so he's not an option. Aerys is more viable, but he was literally just sworn in - it feels strange to have him handle something so important to House Lannister, although I think he's work fine if it were just guarding the Starks.
Right... Totally forgot. Man, Joff really jumped the gun with removing Barristan. Well, let's try to make lemonade.

[X] Plan: The Tully Gambit
 
[X] Plan: The Tully Gambit

- interesting plan regarding Tully and Rykker... the Reach will then "reach" out to Renly while Stannis might now burn septons and septas instead of just septs for more supernatural aid.
 
- interesting plan regarding Tully and Rykker... the Reach will then "reach" out to Renly while Stannis might now burn septons and septas instead of just septs for more supernatural aid.
I like Stannis as a character, but he's everything we could've hoped for in an opponent - the propaganda literally writes itself, and that we've managed to leverage the Faith as an ally of Joffrey's unsteady regime is a massive win.

Renly is, bluntly put, an infinitely more dangerous opponent. With the Reach and Stormlands rallied to his name, he boasts easily the largest army in Westeros, and he's no slouch at running PR either. Our greatest challenge here is wondering how much we can rely on canon to anticipate his actions; should things stick to the books, he'll waste the initiative feasting and gathering up a massive host before his confrontation with Stannis ends in magical murder and the Reach being handed over to our side on a pretty platter.

Needless to say, I suspect matters will not solve themselves nearly so neatly for us. My rough guess is that this version of Westeros lacks the low-fantasy elements; there's been no mention of Cersei's prophecy, Daenerys seems to have been butterflied, and it remains to be seen if Melisandre is offering magical powers. Should Stannis not have shadow-baby assassins at hand, his position grows considerably more difficult, although his command of the royal navy is still a big issue.

Regarding Renly, we have a few possible strategies. Firstly, his claim to the throne is basically "I'd be a good king," and doesn't have much legal standing, even if you believe the admittedly outrageous claims of incestuous cuckoldry he's still usurping Stannis based on 'being a much cooler dude.' Our immediate-term strategy should be to rally a large enough army to prevent Renly from simply storming King's Landing, and in the meantime start attacking his basis of legitimacy - that we've allied with the Faith grants a healthy credence to hurled homophobic slurs, heh.
 
[X] Plan: The Tully Gambit

The thing that worries me about releasing Sansa is that it raises questions about Arya's location. The Lannisters were able to pretend they had both sisters in canon because they held Sansa, but if we let Sansa go she'll tell her family that she has no idea where her sister is. The Starks already think we tried to murder one of their children (and to be fair, they're right), so they're never going to trust us, period.

That said, I agree there's nothing much to be gained from keeping Sansa. And keeping her away from Joffrey is always a good thing - hopefully taking away his opportunity to act out will keep his sadism in check for a while.
 
-[X] Letter: Write to Riverrun, offering to appoint Edmure as Hand of the King implicitly in exchange for raising their banners for Joffrey and condemning the Apostate Pretenders. Offer what concessions we can to sweeten the pot, such as possible betrothals, further court appointments in King's Landing, etc.
By 'pretenders' do we just mean Stannis and Renly, or are we including the Starks? Giving the Tullies a chance to be HOTK is pretty brilliant, actually - it plays into the deep seated insecurity the Tullies have at being the (literally) red-headed stepchild of the Seven Kingdoms due to never having had a crown before the conquest. A glory hound like Edmure would jump likely jump at the chance. But turning against his kin is a step too far, even for him. The success of this plan hinges upon making Edmure confident he doesn't have to fight his sister's family. Some compensation for the damage Gregor's raids inflicted should be brought up whenever we get to negotiate with Edmure, as well - Edmure was legitimately pissed about the suffering inflicted on his people.
 
Some other thoughts on our strategy moving forward.
Turn 1 - 2nd Season of 298 AC
It sounds like each turn will take three months, although ASOIAF awkwardly lacks our same calendar time-keeping. Something important to keep in mind.
You have two actions.
Hah, nothing like some AP hell to concentrate the mind. I wonder if we'll unlock more actions by securing Cersei's hold on power? It'd give us a mechanical incentive to engage in seemingly self-defeating actions like plugging the ranks full of corrupt loyalists and toadies, making us balance installing subordinates who are loyal to Cersei and ones who are good at their jobs but answer to others.
You can pick either from the options below or use write-in actions, but those should be cleared with the QM first.
Glad to hear we've got a lot of flexibility to work with. After some adjustment, I really enjoy the strategic situation we're sitting in, and it'll require some big thonks to see King Joffrey through usurping uncles and Targaryen pretenders.
Note that NPCs (such as people on the Small Council) will take their own actions.
As we just learned. In this update alone, we had Baelish installing Slynt on the Small Council, Joffrey making Clegane Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, and God only knows what Varys is up to. Ideally, once we've installed some people who can find their asses in broad daylight and/or aren't flagrantly treasonous, NPC actions will start helping with the AP hell instead of giving us ulcers.
In addition, you can send an arbitrary number of messages to people at court, in Westeros or abroad. Write in the content of these messenges and the recipient. Unless otherwise specified, they will be delivered by raven.
I suspect learning the strengths and limits of this ability will take some time. Still, it's good to know what is essentially the conduction of diplomacy doesn't require dedicated actions.
This is what I think Cersei is best at and what I intend to spend most of her time doing. I don't see her being able to meaningfully implement tax reform or command armies, but she's charming and a veteran of court politics, especially when she's not down children and in an alcoholic spiral. Courting the Crownlander nobles is a good example of something that makes the best use of her talents, I think.
[] Speak with Joffrey. Prepare him for what is to come and make sure he listens to your advice.
I spent a fair amount of time chewing over whether or not to do this. Ultimately, while leaving Joffrey unsupervised requires some gut-clenching - and believe me, I'm worried about what he'll do now that we're in the first proper turn - right now we have two actions available. Dedicating one to making sure the king doesn't do something bad is, in my opinion, far more crippling than whatever the consequences of his actual decisions. This might change in the future, and we should work on making him a better ruler, but right now time's just too important to waste on micromanaging the royal brat.

And, to be honest, making Clegane the Lord Commander was extremely based. Maybe we oughta see what the King does when given some rope to work with?
[] Speak with Varys. Try to ascertain his loyalties and learn more about the wildfyre he found.

[] Speak with Baelish. Try to see how trustworthy he is and see if he can be aligned with your goals.
Varys and Baelish, our two worst enemies and best friends. If it weren't for them, the game would've been over at the start. But the only reason they're supporting us is because they think we're the weakest, most inept candidate in the civil war, and by supporting us they're dragging out the conflict and ensuring another one down the line. It's not a flattering realization, but it's still something we ought to use while it lasts.

I decided Baelish made the most sense as someone to talk with. Varys, frankly speaking, scares me. His actual motives are an enigma even canonically, let alone in the quest, and his mute slave children are just disturbing. I don't know any other way of dealing with him than killing him, and it's way too early for a move like that.

Littlefinger, on the other hand, is eminently human in his motivations and means, as despicable as they are. More relevantly, he has a few key assets that make him a useful ally and a painful enemy - namely, his influence over Lysa Arryn, his control over the Goldcloaks, and his economic chicanery as Master of Coin. Cutting a deal with him means we can count on the Vale as an ally and trust that the city guard won't decide to turn cloaks like they did to Ned, but we certainly shouldn't mistake this for anything long-term. Sooner or later the financial catastrophe he's made of the Realm's credit will need to be answered, let alone shit like egging on Joffrey's worst impulses.
[] Speak with Janos Slynt. While Baelish elevating him to the council was not your idea, you can certainly twist him to your advantage.
Trying to subvert Slynt might be worth consideration, but I don't think we could beat Baelish at his own game here. Better to simply have the lout replaced by someone competent once we're ready to clean house.
[] Speak with the Pyromancers. Learn more about the wildfyre found in the sept and see if they can aid you in the battles to come.
This'll both help with figuring out Aerys' final surprise and start preparing Tyrion's Blackwater trick. I'll admit I'm not a huge fan of gimmicks like that, but it's worth consideration if Stannis manages to become more of a threat.
Administration

[] Dig into Littlefingers books. The crown is in debt and you need to know how bad it really is.

[] Organise a shipbuilding effort. You will need a fleet to defend yourself against Stannis.

[] Speak with local traders to organise better food supplies for the city.
Urg. All of this is both really, really necessary, but not something Cersei seems particularly good at handling? Her canonical shipbuilding effort was, uh, a total disaster. Still, it'll need handling - especially since we can't trust Baelish to sort it out himself. I don't think the Queen would appreciate it, but we might benefit from Tyrion returning to help out around the city (ideally without being named Hand by Tywin beforehand, another bonus of the Tully gambit).
Strategy

[] Expand the Gold Cloaks. You will need far more than a mere thousand soldiers.
This sure is uncomfortably bare. And expanding King's Landing's beloved paramilitary is a no-go until we can trust its leadership.

While more options will undoubtedly open up soon, in the immediate term our best ways of getting more troops is simply to bring more allies online, whether they be in the Crownlands, Riverlands, or Vale.
Intrigue

[] Gather information on Littlefinger and his shady dealings.

[] Gather information on the wildfyre yourself. Varys is likely hiding something.
This is all tempting. More than that, it's necessary. Right now, Cersei IC knows those two are shady, but it's so much worse than even her most cynical take could imagine.

We just don't have the time for actions that don't immediately contribute to stabilizing Joffrey's regime, alas. Working on figuring out just what they're up to will have to wait until we're not dealing with armies knocking on the gates and a hostile fleet blockading the bay.
Learning

[] Dig into the histories of these Targaryen pretenders. Maybe something can be found that can be exploited.
I imagine this would help in figuring out which ones are complete frauds and which ones have some legitimacy. Still, very much a 'later' problem.
[] Rest. Sleep. Spend time with Jaime.
Managing Cersei's mental health will be a blast, no doubt. For now, it'll have to wait, but keeping her on the right side of hinged - and taking it easy on the Golden Arbor - should be worth consideration.
 
I have a very strong feeling that, with all the rants about how Littlefinger taught him how to play the game, Eddard Stark will dial back his "lawfulness" and just escape the convoy and go to war.
He would have a good excuse- oaths given to bastard pretender are hardly valid and he would not recognise authority of the faith of the seven, not being a follower.
I have no idea how to deal with this. Kinda wanted to ask if we could keep him in Kings Landing until we could arrange a safe naval transport, but it would just provoke Robb.
 
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