WI: Pizarro fails at Cajamarca

CastIron · Jul 30, 2021

Seeing as it's been on my mind recently, what do you guys think would happen in Pizarro failed? The POD I have in mind is that Atahualpa is a bit more cautious/paranoid, and while he is still captured, his massive army that OTL was too far away to attempt a rescue, is closer to Cajamarca and is able to beat the massively outnumbered Spaniards.

What are the shockwaves of this, both in Europe and it's colonies and in the Incan Empire? Would the Inca face renewed rebellion as the newly crowned Sapa Inka loses prestige by being captured by a few hundred random men? And what would Charles I/V think? Would he see Pizarro's failed conquest as something minor or would he want that Incan gold?

Eliar · Aug 1, 2021

The Sapa Inka and his next dozen succesors probably kick it from all those lovely new European diseases and the Empire sooner or later dissolves as everyone is fighting everyone over a vast field of diseased corpses with the Spaniards picking over the remains a few decades down the line?

Seriously the populous cities of the Inka Empire and its tributaries are fucked no matter how you look at it.

CastIron · Aug 1, 2021

Eliar said:
The Sapa Inka and his next dozen succesors probably kick it from all those lovely new European diseases and the Empire sooner or later dissolves as everyone is fighting everyone over a vast field of diseased corpses with the Spaniards picking over the remains a few decades down the line?

Seriously the populous cities of the Inka Empire and its tributaries are fucked no matter how you look at it.

I don't really buy the arguement that Spanish or any European conquest was inevitable until the colonizers had firm control over port colonies, and even then I think some sort of Native state could have resisted fiercely enough to make full conquest unprofitable and unpopular. OTL the Neo-Incan state ran a campaign of resistance to the Spanish and quickly adopted European weaponry. The last independent Mayan polity wasn't conquered until the 1600's, long after the introduction of Eurasian diseases.

Pizarro also arrived after the diseases were introduced, and though he did have permission from the Spanish Crown to conquer Peru, if he failed, I doubt Charles I/V would send another expedition after Pizarro never comes back, as the troops for a proper conquest could probably be better used in conflicts in Europe, not on the edge of the known world.

ScottishMongol · Aug 2, 2021

Eliar said:
The Sapa Inka and his next dozen succesors probably kick it from all those lovely new European diseases and the Empire sooner or later dissolves as everyone is fighting everyone over a vast field of diseased corpses with the Spaniards picking over the remains a few decades down the line?

Seriously the populous cities of the Inka Empire and its tributaries are fucked no matter how you look at it.

Man, I'm getting tired of this idea that the Native Americans were just waiting to keel over at the slightest whiff of Old World diseases. It has a very "Vanishing Indian" feel that paints the conquest of the New World as inevitable and shifts the blame away from European imperialism.

Peru had already been exposed to smallpox in advance of European arrival, the civil war which allowed Pizarro to waltz in was caused by the death of Huayna capac and his heir from the disease.

While smallpox and measles would kill a majority of Indigenous Peruvians, it's worth noting these far more deadly epidemics would come after the Spanish conquest which included the enslavement, resettlement, and use of Indigenous people for forced labor, and their effects would have likely been mitigated had the disruption of the Spanish conquest not occurred; a similar pattern is seen across the Americans, with the true dieoff beign a result of the forced removal of Native Americans and the disruption of their societies rather than solely from disease.

Had the Inca not been conquered by the Spanish they would certainly have suffered from epidemic diseases, but they would also have had a much better chance to stay unified and their complex society would be well-suited to adopt European technology, crops, livestock, and knowledge.

Which isn't to say they're out of the woods; they would face follow-up invasions (much less likely to succeed if they're unified), gunboat diplomacy, and they would likely need to do a lot to placate European powers (like possibly converting to Christianity), but in the long term they might be able to survive a Chinese-style "Century of Humiliation" into the modern day.

Eliar · Aug 2, 2021

ScottishMongol said:
Man, I'm getting tired of this idea that the Native Americans were just waiting to keel over at the slightest whiff of Old World diseases. It has a very "Vanishing Indian" feel that paints the conquest of the New World as inevitable and shifts the blame away from European imperialism.

What?

Pointing out that the densely populated Inca Empire that was destined to suffer several die offs worse than the Black Death, was in constant turmoil due to the rebellions of the conquered and the civil wars of the inca themselves would be faced with greater invasions, once they were even more weakened and the Spanish understood the manner of wealth it contained is non kosher?

I mean the invasion that did them in was 200 men. Once the Spanish established themselved in the North they would be able to dispatch thousands and be faced with with a far weaker opponents.

And yes it would all be due to European gold rush and imperialism? Imperialism that was to last for centuries. I see no real alternate, real or ideological that the Inca would not be faced with ever escalating invasions while being in ever weakening position.

I certainly never suggested that the Inca would die off completely thus absolving the Spanish of their butchery.

CastIron · Aug 2, 2021

Eliar said:
I mean the invasion that did them in was 200 men.

And thousands of native allies. Just like Cortez, it was only due to the Spanish allying with local peoples that allowed them to conquer Central or South America. Even with steel, gunpowder, and horses, conquering an empire the size of the Inca an Aztecs would be impossible without local support, something that wouldn't be guaranteed if, in the Incan case, the Spaniards were beaten before they could snowball.

Eliar · Aug 2, 2021

CastIron said:
And thousands of native allies. Just like Cortez, it was only due to the Spanish allying with local peoples that allowed them to conquer Central or South America. Even with steel, gunpowder, and horses, conquering an empire the size of the Inca an Aztecs would be impossible without local support, something that wouldn't be guaranteed if, in the Incan case, the Spaniards were beaten before they could snowball.

True.

Pizzaro did come across several massive strokes of luck so beating him off would not be a surprise. I would go further and say that he would alarm the inca, that would be much more alert from that point on, but the fact remains that the inca Empire was in for a very rough time from that point on.

Would be very difficult, I believe, for them to survive the tsunami of difficulties that would follow