WI: North America in 2020 is ISOTed to 30,000 BCE?

[UponALotusBlosom]

Praise be to the Librarians of the World For they Hath Delivered. I could search the geo-sciences databases if you want more detailed information but I was directed to the United States Geological Survey and lo and behold they had a section on rare-earths in the United States.

USGS Publications Warehouse (Publications Page.)

https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-rare-earths.pdf (Rare-Earths PDF.)

Spoiler: Report is just two pages long if you want to read the full thing

World Resources: Rare earths are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust, but minable concentrations are less common than for most other ores. In North America, measured and indicated resources of rare earths were estimated to include 2.7 million tons in the United States and more than 15 million tons in Canada.

Assume tons unless otherwise stated.

United States (2018 Production)18,000 (2019 Production) 26,000 (Reserve Stockpile U.S.) 1,400,000.

Substitutes: Substitutes are available for many applications but generally are less effective.

Events, Trends, and Issues: (...)In the United States, domestic production of mineral concentrates, all of which were exported, increased to 26,000 tons, a 44% increase compared with that of 2018. China continued to dominate the global supply of rare earths. According to China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the mine and separation production quotas for 2019 were 132,000 tons and 127,000 tons, respectively.

Recycling: Limited quantities of rare earths from batteries, permanent magnets, and fluorescent lamps are recycled.

Domestic Production and Use: Rare earths were mined domestically in 2019. Bastnaesite (or bastnäsite), a rare-earth fluorocarbonate mineral, was mined as a primary product at a mine in Mountain Pass, CA, which was restarted in the first quarter of 2018 after being put on care-and-maintenance status in the fourth quarter of 2015. Monazite, a phosphatemineral, was produced as a separated concentrate or included as an accessory mineral in heavy-mineral concentrates. The estimated value of rare-earth compounds and metals imported by the United States in 2019 was $170 million, an increase from $160 million in 2018. The estimated distribution of rare earths by end use was as follows: catalysts, 75%; metallurgical applications and alloys, 5%; ceramics and glass, 5%; polishing, 5%; and other, 10%.

Salient Stats	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	---
Production, bastnaesite concentrates	5,900	---	---	18,000	26,000	Defined as production + imports –exports.
Imports: Compounds	9,160	11,500	11,000	10,800	14,000
Imports: Ferrocerium, alloys	356	268	309	301	310
Rare-earth metals, scandium, and yttrium	385	404	524	527	590
Exports: Ores and Compounds	4,980	590	1,740	16,800	26,000	(Total?)
Exports: Ferrocerium, alloys	1,220	943	982	1,210	1,400
Exports: Rare-earth metals, scandium, and yttrium	60	103	55	28	100
Consumption Apparent	9,550	10,500	9,060	11,600	13,000	Defined as production + imports –exports.
Continued in table below						Continued in table below

Net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption:	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	In 2015, domestic production of mineral concentrates was included with apparent consumption of compounds and metals. In 2018 and 2019, all domestic production of mineral concentrates was exported, and all compounds and metals consumed were assumed to be imported material.
Compounds and metals	38%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Defined as Imports-Exports. Important Read Above ^
Mineral concentrates	XX	XX	XX	E	E	E Net exporter. NA Not available. XX Not applicable. — Zero.

 

[Skychan]

On Internal transport of goods and services

Okay, quick couple of things to point out. America only needs to feed America. America currently has facilities in place to move food from the interior to the exterior ports. Finally, we don't need to ship anything away from America via those ports to anywhere else. It is only going to places inside America, IE inside the transportation network previously noted as already existing to bring it to the ports in the first place. So no, there is no issue with transporting food within America generally speaking. So this is not an issue.

On Rainfall

Weather is going to be a bitch. None of the weather or rainfall predictions or models anyone is using is going to matter. The climate has been unalterably changed from what it would have been, is and was. Yikes, have to include three tenses for that...

But my main point is that weather is going to be a beast. For years, as it takes time to settle down. If all the warm air, warm water, warm continents are enough to reverse global glaciacian or if global glaciation is enough to overcome the newcomer continent is something I don't think any of us is competent to judge. But we will see storms a plenty. The risk to people isn't going to be because temperatures are a dozen degrees lower, and its chilly or cold outside. The risk is going to be a thunder storm with 100mph winds that tears a community apart. A 'freak' snowstorm that dumps 10 feet of snow on Mexico city collapsing buildings, even though it might melt away in a week or less. Sudden rainfall that can be measured in feet flooding somewhere, and conversely, areas that get no rainfall.

These weather related natural disasters are going to be the largest cause for loss of life that the displaced continent is going to face. Not a smooth glide into 10 degree lower temperatures unreasonably somehow magically making Canada inhospitable. In this we're actually probably a bit lucky that the sea is going away because it will reduce the number and severity of huricantes that hit North America. Instead it is just windstorms, tornados, hail, rain, and snowstorms that will be causing the damage.