January 1, 1965. By the act of ROB, the United States of America and all its territories are...
WI: 1965's United States ISOT to 1915 (+1985 version)
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January 1, 1965. By the act of ROB, the United States of America and all its territories are transported back in time and space to the year 1915.
In this scenario:
All US citizens overseas will be transported safely to their homes.
All US ships and planes (both private and state-owned) that are in-route will be transported within US borders.
All US spacecraft will reappear in their respective places.
Everything else that was overseas will be lost
A country rapidly transforming by inner Social Movements and foreign-policies promoted by the Cold War is sended back to the Beginning of the End for Europe's monarchical powers.
What could happen?
PS: To expand with hypothetical scenario, let's add the same event but with 1985's United States instead. How different would be from each other regarding approaching the rest of the world? After all, ALOT happened between 1964 and 1984.
In this scenario:
All US citizens overseas will be transported safely to their homes.
All US ships and planes (both private and state-owned) that are in-route will be transported within US borders.
All US spacecraft will reappear in their respective places.
Everything else that was overseas will be lost
A country rapidly transforming by inner Social Movements and foreign-policies promoted by the Cold War is sended back to the Beginning of the End for Europe's monarchical powers.
What could happen?
PS: To expand with hypothetical scenario, let's add the same event but with 1985's United States instead. How different would be from each other regarding approaching the rest of the world? After all, ALOT happened between 1964 and 1984.
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America <cracks knuckles> looks like Russia needs some FREEDOM
More seriously though, Hitler, Trotskey, Stalin, and Lenin all get the undivided attention of several CIA teams.
Probable entry into WWI by the US with mass bombing and a air/sea invasion of the north Sea(?) and propping up the Russian White Army/interim government.
Informing the remaining monarchies that their empires need self determination should be... funny. In a "oh-God-thats-a-train-crash" kind of way
More seriously though, Hitler, Trotskey, Stalin, and Lenin all get the undivided attention of several CIA teams.
Probable entry into WWI by the US with mass bombing and a air/sea invasion of the north Sea(?) and propping up the Russian White Army/interim government.
Informing the remaining monarchies that their empires need self determination should be... funny. In a "oh-God-thats-a-train-crash" kind of way
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The CIA will have a field day
A lot of John Does flowing all over the world
Oh and also securing all the sweet sweet oil from the Turks under the pretenses to stop the Armenian genocide and prop them up in a puppet state and the other tribes in major oil deposits
A lot of John Does flowing all over the world
Oh and also securing all the sweet sweet oil from the Turks under the pretenses to stop the Armenian genocide and prop them up in a puppet state and the other tribes in major oil deposits
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well fun yes but a more simple scenario
the 1915 US lost all its nukes so its time for the motherland to invade the world
We are forgetting that from the tail end of the Korean War and what is essentially the middle of the Vietnam War so much friendly / US counter-espionage comms traffic and beeps, clicks and boops all detectable by crude WW1 era electronic ears. What will they make of submersibles, spy planes and boots on the ground all squawking at unbelievable Megahertz volumes? If these sounds vanish along with the relocation of personnel and "loss" of equipment, for how long does it echo in the 1915 airspaces? Given that Germany still has Guam, the Marshall Islands and who knows what else burning coal and crude out there.
And that reminds me. This is months before the Royal Navy and the Imperial German Navy go head to head in the Battle of Jutland. One nuclear cruiser or submarine could electronically and with guided missiles overwhelm all the pre-radar hydrophones, fire control perches and range finder what-have-yous. Plus torpedoes by the mid-60s were unescapable, a real fire-and-forget game changer.
I want to add just this little tidbit:
And that reminds me. This is months before the Royal Navy and the Imperial German Navy go head to head in the Battle of Jutland. One nuclear cruiser or submarine could electronically and with guided missiles overwhelm all the pre-radar hydrophones, fire control perches and range finder what-have-yous. Plus torpedoes by the mid-60s were unescapable, a real fire-and-forget game changer.
I want to add just this little tidbit:
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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I have a feeling America's main adversaries for the remainder of the 20th century are going to be a Japan-Britain-France axis.
Once the Central Powers are dealt with and Communism and Fascism basically removed from the picture, the U.S. public is probably not going to be as sanguine about imperialism as they were in our timeline. It'll be a slow burn at first, but given that there's no pressing geopolitical reason to look the other way over all the massacres they committed anymore the wheels of public opinion will eventually turn against them. Britain and France aren't necessarily the most pressing of threats from a realpolitik perspective but they'll no doubt begin causing more problems than they're worth in short order, especially in the Middle East which for the time being will be America's top strategic priority.
Couple these factors with a restless military industrial complex that'll be desperately attempting to justify itself, and you have the recipe for a long term rivalry.
Once the Central Powers are dealt with and Communism and Fascism basically removed from the picture, the U.S. public is probably not going to be as sanguine about imperialism as they were in our timeline. It'll be a slow burn at first, but given that there's no pressing geopolitical reason to look the other way over all the massacres they committed anymore the wheels of public opinion will eventually turn against them. Britain and France aren't necessarily the most pressing of threats from a realpolitik perspective but they'll no doubt begin causing more problems than they're worth in short order, especially in the Middle East which for the time being will be America's top strategic priority.
Couple these factors with a restless military industrial complex that'll be desperately attempting to justify itself, and you have the recipe for a long term rivalry.
Another great post Buba, thank you. To the earlier bit by the atom:
I disagree. These three countries mentioned were just starting to receive the first bit of aid from the US. And that came at a really good time: Japan and the UK were finally starting to perfect a collaborative anti-submarine patrol. Top brass among Japan's WW2 ranks were actually present on WW1-era destroyers and torpedo boats on the lookout for Germans. They scrutinized everything about tactics and tech trends of both powers. And they would see the US deploying some inarguably more sophisticated tech as an excuse to wrap up WW1 involvement early and study abroad. 1925 attack on Pearl here we come.
I disagree. These three countries mentioned were just starting to receive the first bit of aid from the US. And that came at a really good time: Japan and the UK were finally starting to perfect a collaborative anti-submarine patrol. Top brass among Japan's WW2 ranks were actually present on WW1-era destroyers and torpedo boats on the lookout for Germans. They scrutinized everything about tactics and tech trends of both powers. And they would see the US deploying some inarguably more sophisticated tech as an excuse to wrap up WW1 involvement early and study abroad. 1925 attack on Pearl here we come.
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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I'm talking about the next several decades. The U.S. will still intervene and crush the central powers but that part was so obvious I didn't feel like it was worth mentioning.
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No, I don't.
I choose the USA for this scenarios because it could, theoretically, take the hit and not colapse because of it.
It's not just a city, a state or a small country. They wouldn't survive no matter how favorable is the "present world"
The USA has the Economy, Technology and Manpower to pull this one out.
And not only that, but also having the political, economical and military weight to take a big role in global policies.
Or in this particular case, to have the power and will to rewrite the XX-Century history as they see fit, for better and for worse.
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Can we get back to the operational parameters here? I noticed top-level that OP has added conditions for a 1985 tech level. What if we simplify all three timeline encounters into one: It starts with 1965 USN and territories abruptly disappearing or replaced with Mid-1915 equivalent (a half-century reversion). Contiguous US unchanged, but just happens to be receiving the first dose of Influenza in Kansas as if it was mid 1910s all over again. Meanwhile, the "missing" USN surface fleets do in fact show up again, but for at least a month and a half they are convinced it is 1985 (20 years in the future) because of readings: barometric changes or other technobabble. In essence, their sensors are hearing 1965 radio chatter that is 20 light years degraded, adding more fuel to the where-the-heck-are-we fire.
edit: I just remembered that 1915 (President at the time--Woodrow Wilson--was wrapping up his first term) was already an insane time to be active in US politics or otherwise deployed abroad in American land grab interests. First, we have President Wilson's second marriage at the end of the year, PLUS the difficulty the US Navy was having in securing a bigger budget to build something more resembling the "heavily armored and thus expensive" capital ships that UK and Germany were throwing at one another. So on this other topic: although a robust, friendly surface fleet is steaming home, do the 1960s era boats have any 1960s era cities and infrastructure, and therefore the right size and scale of harbors, drydocks and other replenishment features waiting for them? If yes, how does a 1915 world at war view the urban riots in 1965? Would the Immigration Act that year also preclude any internment of the Japanese living and working in Hawaii and the west coast as was soon to be the case in the interwar years after WW1? Thanks!
edit: I just remembered that 1915 (President at the time--Woodrow Wilson--was wrapping up his first term) was already an insane time to be active in US politics or otherwise deployed abroad in American land grab interests. First, we have President Wilson's second marriage at the end of the year, PLUS the difficulty the US Navy was having in securing a bigger budget to build something more resembling the "heavily armored and thus expensive" capital ships that UK and Germany were throwing at one another. So on this other topic: although a robust, friendly surface fleet is steaming home, do the 1960s era boats have any 1960s era cities and infrastructure, and therefore the right size and scale of harbors, drydocks and other replenishment features waiting for them? If yes, how does a 1915 world at war view the urban riots in 1965? Would the Immigration Act that year also preclude any internment of the Japanese living and working in Hawaii and the west coast as was soon to be the case in the interwar years after WW1? Thanks!
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Ah, you are right! It was not until 1948 that the US really started to roll out the financial support with the Marshall Plan under President Truman.
I was seeking clarification from OP if the US military assets returning home would find infrastructure compatible with their replenishment needs.
I was seeking clarification from OP if the US military assets returning home would find infrastructure compatible with their replenishment needs.
Sorry, I was mainly toying with the idea that 1915 US would have completely different sea lanes, no airports for the all-metal types to land safely and so on. If the 1965 era contiguous 48 states were replacing the 1915 US topography and infrastructure as it leapt backward in time, that I can sort of understand, although a direct swap creates all sorts of concerns from a quantum physics perspective. It makes more sense for individual components (people, vehicles) fall out of the sky one by one.
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This would be hilarious dystopian considering the heinous stuff America did to the global south w/ the presence of a hostile superpower to oppose them. Now they're completely untouchable.
Yes, personally I would go for a race against the clock dynamic (basically refusing villains the chance to reverse engineer or gain momentum, see Plot Coupons) as that prevents a global domination outcome and introduces enough tension for individual camps to posit Foreign Policy maneuvers that either revisit Gunboat Diplomacy and / or Isolationism.
I'm coming back to edit this post for word flow, appreciate the heads up Buba.
A late 20th century US military would in short order demonstrate to a 1915 world that by their reckoning 1955 was last call for conventional warfare. Standard munitions were all but obsolescent as
Imperial Japan meanwhile would learn that Nagato (launched late 1910s) stayed afloat after taking two nukes, so their thinking would probably lead to a doomed repeat of launching the Yamato-class with even more bling.
However, everyone's aircraft carriers should continue development, the problem is before the USN had their New Mexico battleship (BB-40 c. May 1918) and the Brits began development of the KG V hull, there was a steady dependency on coal-fed boilers, which meant for the first generation of "catching up" aircraft carriers still leave no room for below deck aircraft and no top speeds in excess of whatever new reverse-engineered toys might be thrown at them.
I will stress that an exception for the Essex-class variants can be made, but that would be the closest tech that other powers in 1915 might try to duplicate. Not only did some of them have more armor (Midway-class) but by the time of the Cold War, they had been converted to very reliable amphibious landers with launch bays that could seal up in case of bad weather or worse.
One other thing, while some of the world powers would insist on building surface bunkers against rumor of hydrogen munitions (if 1985 tech unlocked, the US-French effort would soon find Davy Crocket style mini-nukes lining the rail yards and airstrips, one hell of a Maginot Line reversal).
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KlinkerKing
Man bites dog?
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- The Lion's Den
There's way too many assumptions being made about the 30-40s era here when the ISOT is to 1915. Japan and America (especially 1985 USA) are far less likely to come into conflict with the benefit of hindsight. By '65, at least some of the issues that led to conflict in the first place aren't even factors anymore. Japan in 1915 is ruled by a fairly democratic system, and its army is yet to be filled with the crazy-pants of '41. Given that the U.S. has a tremendous amount of hindsight on this, just sending relief efforts in '23 and the Japanese finding out how Pearl Harbour worked out IRL will change things way too much for things to stay the same, come 1941.
KlinkerKing
Man bites dog?
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Well, Japan hasn't made it's 21 Demands yet, so if they figure out just where the hell that's going before they actually set everything on fire, then they'll probably back off. Japan holding on to Manchuria through Proxy is probably something the U.S. won't care too much about so long as they stop stirring up trouble south of Shanhai pass. The thing that's gonna be interesting is how Europe, in the middle of the grand clusterfuck that burned the continent to the ground is going to react. I could legitimately see a reason for every power other than Serbia to call it off as a bad job and return to status quo with minimal grumbling.
Well to emphasize your other point: yes entry into the 'USA' club would be contingent on how matured the US-Japan relations were in hindsight. If coming from 1985 then hell freaking yes - they were parking command carriers in Yokosuka since at least 1973!
But as for 1965, there were still many fresh-faced JMSDF recruits eager for a spot aboard something other than a US loaner destroyer, alas it was way too early for post-WW2 Japan to warm up their shipyards like that.
So this means a few things: much of the manpower shuffling would be on 1915 Imperial Japan. They were wrapping up a peace treaty with Russia, and expanding upon the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (a mad grab for German ports in the Far East).
So regardless of the origin point, a much bigger yet friendlier US military is extending an olive branch however Queen Victoria style and Japan mid-stride honoring a mutual defense pact with Britain would perhaps only be so eager to work something out.
I think the biggest problem is reconnecting with retired 60s or 80s marines who were doing base upkeep around Yokosuka between 1946 and the ultimately agreed upon time-travel start point. Their insights could turn US-Japan relations around amicably.
Heh. Imperial Japan had two sets of crazy-pants, one for a Navy that since about 1899 believed it was in a self-determination mode akin to a real life Quest for the Holy Grail, and an Army that had bought most of the parliament seats and kept stalling IJN ship construction until they were satisfied the boats could transport their numbers.
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KlinkerKing
Man bites dog?
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- The Lion's Den
Control of Manchuria (well, Chinese Manchuria anyway) was pretty much settled when Japan won the Russo-Japanese war and the following political kerfuffle, and Japan ruled the area through various local warlords by proxy from 1912 or so.
Well, the Navy had a much stronger non-delusional faction, even if people like Nagano had interesting ideas, but not really crazier than anyone else (the attrition/skirmishing phase that would preface the decisive battle was weird, yes, but not really weirder than whatever the hell the USN was doing when they repeatedly almost built a torpedo battleship because "it's going to work, I promise"). Admiral Yamamoto, for instance, had a pretty decent grounding in reality compared to the pants-on-head morons in the IJA (Kawabe and Sato, this means you). While the IJN to a large degree fell into the Kantai Kessen rabbit hole (not unlike the Kaiserliche Marine in the years leading up to WW1), Yamamoto was more than aware of his odds against the USA, given that he accurately predicted that the IJN would fall flat on its face in a war longer than a year, and in the previously mentioned quote, stated the need to reach Washington D.C. with military forces to dictate terms.
So @KlinkerKing the linchpin of this scenario, regardless of US assets coming to the fore from 1960s or 1980s, is the burgeoning extension of IJN and IJA power projection through their respective experiences in recent combat arenas right before the first World War. But I have to excuse Yamamoto from this vantage point, as he and other officers who served aboard the armored cruiser Nisshin and therefore saw action against the Russian Eastern and Baltic fleets would be back in Japan healing up and completely missing the 1907-1908 tour of Roosevelt's new pre-dreadnought battlewagons.
And this is unfortunate. They would have key insights such as how not to equip a battleship with too many torpedo chutes, and unlike the 1915 American ship builders would already have a huge head start with having served aboard what was the first true collaboration on advanced cruiser designs that ultimately led to the Kongo. Just to be clear, Japan might have been the only naval power at the time to retain the Kongo (a 1910 hull) and expand it into a fast battleship role over several decades.
But pausing for a moment to look more closely at the 1915 stage, the Imperial Japanese Navy would have had about less than a calendar year's time to draw educated comparisons between Russian turn of the century armored cruiser tech versus their own, ignoring the shiny American builds on display in their home waters (1907 Great White Fleet), as it's mentioned that officers like Yamamoto did not resume presiding over a naval service occupation until 1914.
I think one of the big disadvantages to iron out in this what-if is how most of the developed world in 1915 was bogged down with missing a huge fraction of stalled supply routes (U-boats) and a complete slaughterhouse in No Man's Land (the UK sent over a million troops to replace a million dead by this point if memory serves). This does not include countries like the US and Japan, who were only sending out the occasional submarine spotter.
And this is unfortunate. They would have key insights such as how not to equip a battleship with too many torpedo chutes, and unlike the 1915 American ship builders would already have a huge head start with having served aboard what was the first true collaboration on advanced cruiser designs that ultimately led to the Kongo. Just to be clear, Japan might have been the only naval power at the time to retain the Kongo (a 1910 hull) and expand it into a fast battleship role over several decades.
But pausing for a moment to look more closely at the 1915 stage, the Imperial Japanese Navy would have had about less than a calendar year's time to draw educated comparisons between Russian turn of the century armored cruiser tech versus their own, ignoring the shiny American builds on display in their home waters (1907 Great White Fleet), as it's mentioned that officers like Yamamoto did not resume presiding over a naval service occupation until 1914.
I think one of the big disadvantages to iron out in this what-if is how most of the developed world in 1915 was bogged down with missing a huge fraction of stalled supply routes (U-boats) and a complete slaughterhouse in No Man's Land (the UK sent over a million troops to replace a million dead by this point if memory serves). This does not include countries like the US and Japan, who were only sending out the occasional submarine spotter.
KlinkerKing
Man bites dog?
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- The Lion's Den
I hate to disappoint, but I was actually talking about a USN proposal when I said Torpedo Battleship. The Japanese navy, for all their many flaws, didn't really outfit their battleships with many torpedoes. There's nothing inherently wrong about the IJN's battleship designs of this period - Fuso, Ise and Kawachi are all decent enough ships.
Further, I was also talking mostly about the post-WW1 environment regarding the Navy. In 1915, they're fairly innovative, with seaplane attacks on Tsingtao and they're rapidly becoming self-sufficient on the naval front, even if that will take until about 1920 to really happen. While retaining Kongou wasn't an inherently bad move, I think they highly overrated them after their refits and they really needed more protection to be worth a damn as a battleship, not an extra knot or two of speed.
To be honest, I don't think Japan is ultimately the most interesting target here, even if they probably dodge a world war on the basis the U.S. is less likely to go full Wilson.
No, the interesting part will be when Europe finds out just how much of a bang-up job they did in ruining themselves and each other, and how it changes the political situation in WW1. I can legitimately see the Germans being shocked into suing for White Peace, status quo ante bellum.
KlinkerKing
Man bites dog?
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- The Lion's Den
Yes, I mentioned it earlier too, but WW1 was really a clusterfuck for all the main combatants. The reason I specified Germany is that in January of 1915, they're the ones with the upper hand by a significant margin, being not too far from Paris.
I did know that there were sail ships in WW1, yes. My great grandfather was a ship's boy aboard one of them, as his father owned the ship (and almost died when a storm swept a whole heap of unsecured mines into a convoy). In fact, he had a motor sail ship in WW2 as well, and used it to smuggle weapons and food for the Norwegian resistance. Funny story there, his uncle was jailed by the SS when they asked for his passport in Trondheim, and he responded with "did you have one when you came here?".
As for up-armouring the Kongou, I'm not suggesting they slap 14 inches of armour on it and slow it down to 12 knots, what I mean is that a speed of 28, or maybe 29 knots would've been fine, and they could've used the remainder of that to actually up the armour because it's not like it would've slowed down the carrier fleet anyway, as Kaga only did 28 knots (and yes, it was technically possible, given that they both lengthened the ship, and upped the armour). Could've prevented Hiei from being turned into Swiss cheese by little Laffey, at the very least, and with a bit of luck maybe even Kongou herself, though there's no saving Kirishima.
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I think Germany had at least a mild case of victory disease at all points after the end of the Franco-Prussian War; if they didn't, they would never have been so sanguine about getting into a conflict where they could potentially be nutcrackered between France and Russia in the first place.Oh, OK, now I understand your ideas about the Kongo class
January 1915 outlook - Germany should be in pre-Victory Disease stage, as this predates the Gorlice-Tarnów Offensive and its aftermath which relegated Russia to the level of a 2nd rate threat. And Moltke's Plan for knocking France out of the war in six weeks failed spectacularly.
Now, I do think that knowing how the war would turn out would pretty quickly incentivize the Germans, and all the other European powers, to seek peace. Especially since the Central Powers are going to be sweating over whether or not the 1965!US is going to intervene on the Entente's side with superweapons or not.
On the other hand, a lot of that hardware is arguably no longer needed, except insofar as the US chooses to become involved in World War One. The Soviets no longer exist, and are unlikely to emerge as credible challengers to the ISOT'ed United States for several decades to come.Military-industrial complex happy. The USA just lost ALL the equipment of eight Army Divisions. Plus that of a Marine Division?
Also - all the aircraft in European and Asian bases. Lots of hardware to be replaced
That is...
Assassinating historical Soviet leadership figures won't necessarily stop a Soviet revolution from happening, since by this point the Czar's government was already in the process of botching the war badly, and was none too popular even before 1914. There may still end up being a Soviet Union of some kind, despite American efforts to prevent it... But it won't be the same one, and it won't be any more of a realistic source of geostrategic opposition to America than will the British Empire or the Kaiser's Germany.
And yes, I KNOW the US government of the immediate post-ISOT years will be fighting like demons to prevent that from arising.
I don't think it was ever that simple for the Soviets. They were a military-authoritarian state, but they were never that close to going full Red Alert on everyone.
I think it'd be screwy and complicated. A lot of the stuff the US did to the global south was motivated by great power rivalry with the Soviets. The causal chain goes like:
1) Desire to promote capitalist profits
2) Desire to promote capitalist ideology
3) Fear and loathing of communist ideology
4) Fear and loathing of Soviet Union playing its own slightly reskinned version of great power politics
5) Spending billions and getting constantly involved in lots of coups and civil wars all over the world to counteract Soviet interests.
With the Soviet Union either nonexistent or neutered as a relevant geopolitical force compared to our timeline, that causal chain stops at around line (3), arguably at around line (1). You still see "banana republics" in South America, but there's less incentive to spend resources and deploy a massive, expensive, comprehensive infrastructure of military-industrial-intelligence complexes to enforce those banana republics. Because when you get right down to it, United Fruit only has so much clout within the United States when it can't go "and if you don't help us, COMMUNISTS TAKE OVER!!!"
...
The Cold War really was unusual in that it was simultaneously a great power sphere-of-influence conflict (with usual indicators like proxy warfare) and an ideological conflict whereby one side winning would inherently make it hard for the other to continue existing. Contrast this to 18th and 19th century imperialist rivalries, which tended to have more of a "Coke vs. Pepsi" dynamic where losing in any one place wasn't seen as a long term threat as long as you didn't lose everywhere. Because, after all, all the states indulging in the imperialism were more similar to each other
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the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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If this is the 60s then this would probably be classified information at this point.
Well this is where the 'no free lunch' paradox comes into play. Perhaps the 1965/1985 US in their initial reconnaissance of whatever 1915 resembles after the Continental "Island Splicing" only amplifies the WW1 hysteria and accelerates Russian Revolutionary instincts. It's important to note that US, Japan and the monarchical Pre-Soviet Russia were all present at the end of the Russo-Japanese for signing the surrender papers in Washington, D.C. Many of the pro-Imperial politicos after this time hiccup would think to phone or telegraph their peers in Washington only to discover any hint of their activity is now buried in 50+ years of records or otherwise deceased. This would prompt an immediate investigation.
You are probably right, their intelligence efforts would be thrown into such disarray by a globe with suddenly only US jets and orbital packages, response times that leave most of the WW1 powers as neutered geopolitically as the Soviet Union, to quote Simon Jester's phrase. Nevertheless, I think the scuttlebutt among USN, USMC and JMSDF naval historians would show they quickly forget who they were speaking to.