What if Modern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas gets ISOTed a month before Mexican–American War?

Don't forget all the social pressure from multiple factors. The social pressure to not kill Native Americans followed by they're attacking us. Because this isn't 100% Manifested Destiny US. The social pressure from Slavery existing and the agitation to end it, which in of itself will create another issue. Because the uptime states don't have the necessary stuff at the moment to do that and adjust appropriately. Which is going to see folks trying to leave to head on over and either become modern downtime filibusters vs America or... well... we all know of the less desirable elements of society who are going to try to migrate on over.
 
In short - War
In long - Recreation of a new United States after War, Starvation, Revolt, and more War.

But one thing is pretty certain, unless we actually get a California vs Texas state on state War the uptimer states will win any conflict, they will even gladly engage in them initially because when some 50-60% of your economy suddenly is meaningless having a literal tangible enemy you can send people out to shoot at is a godsend. Slavery is a pretty safe target to point at as a boogieman and way to get people thinking of one nation, one people instead of one nation, one giant burning riot.

The end state is of course the hard unknown. Either each State it's own country, Two superpowers, California and Texas, One superpower the Southwestern US, or if things get really strange a more 'recognizable' US where the east coast etc is the seriously little brother to the Southwest. Things like conquering Mexico and or parts of Canada are easily on the table, through either force of arms or diplomacy.

With a world population of ~1.2 billion
US 23 Million
Mexico 27 million
Canada 13 million
Translocated States ~83 million
California 39 million was 92k
Nevada 3 million was -
Utah 3 million was 11k
Arizona 7 million was -
New Mexico 2 million was 61k
Texas 29 million - was 200k[/spoilder]
So you have a translocated population that is equal to the entire population of the rest of the continent, that has immeasurably better internal transport, communications, weapons, technology, knowledge, and a small issue of famine and riots. :) The Translocated US states can only hope to be attacked to provide a release valve for tensions and fears rather than having to come up with an excuse for why they need to go on the offensive themselves.
 
What if Modern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas gets ISOTed a month before Mexican–American War? How would America and Mexico reacted? Would the political differences cause these states to create their own nation or would they join downtime America and change it in their own vision? How would other countries like in Europe react to this weird event?
Almost this exact story has been written (except only California, and a couple years after). Go read it, it's pretty good.
 
Eh, pretty good setup for an American world conquest run. Also uh I don't think there should be famine, California and Arizona alone export a ridiculous amount of produce, for example 98% of lettuce grown in the US is grown in California and Arizona alone.
 
For food production, the South West is about to get a relatively wetter 100 years. They had been in drought in 2021, but will not be in 1846. In fact most initial damage in the first several decades downstream will come from the weather, as it will rain far more than anyone uptime is used to. As for food, with the sea restored fish can be back on the menu almost immediately for both Texas and California.
 
I just picture the agriculture part. Modern time agriculture allows for a complete expansion of Farming and Equipment, we would definitely move to conquer the US again as the continent together is a major boost to the economy. Of course attempting to get the Indians to agree with the expansion of the U.S. won't work easily, however not all Indians are nice and tribes were sometimes oppressive as well. I imagine integration efforts, but conflict with the populous and Indians because we wish to exploit indian land. But If we manage to get passed these early issues? We get a massive economic boost as the now unused land can be properly converted into food and Genetically Modified Crops would suddenly be used in storm to grow as much food as possible to ease the sudden loss of imports. Windfarms and Solarfarms would also need to be built to ease the loss of easy power sources. After fixing things in the homeland and hopefully getting covid under control they would move over sees to grab oil imports. As no one has the strength to actually stop a conquest from them. The British have a major issue as well, as the uptimes would not allow the British to control any of the US.

I could be wrong about some of this. But the biggest problem with the downtimers is the American idea of Freedom conflicting with the ideas of the past. Woman being on the same level as men would cause massive trouble with the downtimers, as well as Freedom of the slaves. Not to mention the amount of crazy patriots fully willing to grab an M16 and attempt to liberate slaves from the farms. Even if the states try to do nothing about slavery the populous would not have it, white or black. We have been raised in a era of equality after all, or at least we are trying for it. Someone insults a white man's black friend just for his skin color? That white man will likely end up in jail for attempted murder. Someone tries to kidnap a woman to marry her? Well we carry guns, and we have laws against that. The amount of social conflict between the ages will cause so much trouble.

Unless, of course we lose all control over covid and it spreads outside of the uptimes and kills almost everyone. On the other hand we will likely try our hardest to get the misunderstood geniuses of the past.
 
The majority of california's income is actually mostly finance and exports. We don't make very much off of importation. The state is a net food exporter. Food is straight up the least likely thing to be a problem for the isot people. Texas pumps and produces gasoline and natural gas so electricity won't be much of an issue. Rare earths are mine able in california as well. There's active gold and silver mines in nevada's mountains.

The states listed produce enough of just about everything the new nascent nation would need to keep things functional even without the international imports. Nearly everything we import through california is consumer goods. Everything else is doable here.
 
Wouldn't the relocated states get hit hard by smallpox?
Not nearly as bad as you expect. We know how to make an effective vaccine and quickly. Just a matter of doing so. The only reason smallpox vaccines aren't given as part of the standard childhood set is there is no reason to risk rare adverse reactions as there is no wild smallpox at all.
 
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I'm pretty sure all four of those states produce more food than they consume.

Will there be problems? Absolutely. But between them these four states have 20% of America's population as well as vast amounts of industry, natural resources, and technical expertise. They have all the tools they need to keep going, albeit with a lower quality of life than they would have had in a modern, interconnected world.
 
I'm pretty sure all four of those states produce more food than they consume.

Will there be problems? Absolutely. But between them these four states have 20% of America's population as well as vast amounts of industry, natural resources, and technical expertise. They have all the tools they need to keep going, albeit with a lower quality of life than they would have had in a modern, interconnected world.
I'll raise you, it's actually 25% of the total US population with like half the industry. Neo America in this instance would be a hyper power the likes of which the world wouldn't even understand. As far as military might, China would be the only nation with enough people to not be immediately wiped out in even a minor military skirmish.

This all being said, I imagine a massive outreach into trade markets into china. They had about 430 million people at the time, and with US investment and pretty fair trade policies and modern knowledge of resource locations would likely become the main source of trade for the new nation.

I entertain no thoughts that any of these states would go their own way because they would then be fucked, so the most likely primary trade corridor would be through the pacific and to china with more expansions of trains into texas. It would likely be a long time until something like the Panama canal got built. We'd likely have navies in both texas and california, so that's both oceans covered with basically invincible navies.

Honestly, This nation could do whatever the fuck it wants to whoever the fuck it wants and nobody would stand even a sneeze of a chance against them in the event of a war.

This nation isekai would create a hyperpower the likes of which the world has never seen.
 
I'll raise you, it's actually 25% of the total US population with like half the industry. Neo America in this instance would be a hyper power the likes of which the world wouldn't even understand. As far as military might, China would be the only nation with enough people to not be immediately wiped out in even a minor military skirmish.

This all being said, I imagine a massive outreach into trade markets into china. They had about 430 million people at the time, and with US investment and pretty fair trade policies and modern knowledge of resource locations would likely become the main source of trade for the new nation.

I entertain no thoughts that any of these states would go their own way because they would then be fucked, so the most likely primary trade corridor would be through the pacific and to china with more expansions of trains into texas. It would likely be a long time until something like the Panama canal got built. We'd likely have navies in both texas and california, so that's both oceans covered with basically invincible navies.

Honestly, This nation could do whatever the fuck it wants to whoever the fuck it wants and nobody would stand even a sneeze of a chance against them in the event of a war.

This nation isekai would create a hyperpower the likes of which the world has never seen.

stands a decent chance at uniting the Americas if ya think about it, there were at time multiple South American and Central American countries that entertained the idea of joining the union and were rejected.
 
Not nearly as bad as you expect. We know how to make an effective vaccine and quickly. Just a matter of doing so. The only reason smallpox vaccines aren't given as part of the standard childhood set is there is no reason to risk rare adverse reactions as there is no wild smallpox at all.
would they be able to get the production in place fast enough to actually deal with the problem, especially when you consider that it would be a the exact same time as Covid 19 is reaping its toll, and even if they did, would the state governments have the integrity to force antivaxxers to get inoculated, or just write of that 30%?
 
would they be able to get the production in place fast enough to actually deal with the problem, especially when you consider that it would be a the exact same time as Covid 19 is reaping its toll, and even if they did, would the state governments have the integrity to force antivaxxers to get inoculated, or just write of that 30%?
Last time smallpox was around some people had to be forced to be innoculated at gunpoint. They were.

You do not fuck with smallpox.

And it depends on how many SNS locations are inside the ISOT area. The US currently has 200 million smallpox vaccine doses in storage across officially 12 locations.

Also I would expect that the states would immediately begin disseminating how to produce first gen smallpox vaccines the fastest. We have another century of experience on them of that.
 
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The only realistic opponents would be, well the ISOT states themselves. So a lot of it is going to depend on how well they get along.

Remember, to us:



Is a more or less obsolete vehicle that while still used, doesn't belong anywhere near a serious fight with modern weapons. It's a taxi, not a full on IFV.
To downtimers?

It's this:


Only without that convenient "die in a week from the flu."
 
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