I think fuel might be a bigger problem than food. Britain has coal, but how many active mines does it have?
According to this, Indonesia is the world's tenth biggest natural gas producer and fifth biggest coal producer, and is also a significant oil exporter. So thankfully I think in the short term there will probably be enough existing coal, oil, and natural gas extraction to keep basic infrastructure going, assuming the uptime nations cooperate with each other and share resources with each other. In the long term there's most of a planet's worth of totally untapped coal, oil, and natural gas reserves out there, and baseline atmospheric carbon dioxide will be more-or-less preindustrial (the islands will presumably bring some modern atmosphere with them, but they're only a small percentage of Earth's surface area so not much), so once extraction can be expanded energy won't be a problem for many decades.
The Japanese will want to bring their nuclear power plants back on line; they'll definitely be useful in the year or ten after the ISOT.
If the uptimers haven't conquered the entire world and divided it between themselves within a generation of the ISOT, it'll probably be because they've chosen not to (whether for moral reasons, because committing themselves to policing millions of square kilometers of territory indefinitely and earning the resentment of the downtimers would be a bad idea in the long term, or because it just wouldn't be worth the trouble, probably a mix of all three).
Come to think of it, that means "Britain is the only nuclear armed country" may not actually be true; Hawaii, Guam, etc. have military bases and there may be some nuclear weapons there.
Even if all the ISOTed countries collapse the world will probably get a big tech boost from all the knowledge the people there will have; even in a worst case scenario this world will likely be building moon rockets in the nineteenth century (technological progress being accelerated by a century seems quite reasonable for a worst case version of this scenario). Of course, that scenario plausibly leads to, say, a moon rocket being built in 1851 by an industrialized modern Chinese state that conquered Japan in the 1760s and now includes Japan as a province.
According to this, Indonesia is the world's tenth biggest natural gas producer and fifth biggest coal producer, and is also a significant oil exporter. So thankfully I think in the short term there will probably be enough existing coal, oil, and natural gas extraction to keep basic infrastructure going, assuming the uptime nations cooperate with each other and share resources with each other. In the long term there's most of a planet's worth of totally untapped coal, oil, and natural gas reserves out there, and baseline atmospheric carbon dioxide will be more-or-less preindustrial (the islands will presumably bring some modern atmosphere with them, but they're only a small percentage of Earth's surface area so not much), so once extraction can be expanded energy won't be a problem for many decades.
The Japanese will want to bring their nuclear power plants back on line; they'll definitely be useful in the year or ten after the ISOT.
Britain now being the world's only nuclear-armed state is basically only relevant to their dealings with other transplanted uptime states such as Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, etc.. The downtimers will be a complete non-threat militarily, except maybe to small coastal islands and any uptimer countries that completely collapse because of the effects of the ISOT (and even then, a collapsing uptimer country is more likely to "collapse outward" than be successfully invaded, e.g. I suspect Madagascar and Britain collapsing would lead to Madagascan and British rogue military units, armed militias, armed street gangs, etc. carving out their own kingdoms and generally wreaking havoc in 1621 Africa and Europe). In this scenario the only things stopping Papua New Guinea from conquering most of the world are logistical limits, them not having enough troops to occupy all that territory, any moral and/or long-term Machiavellian objections they might have to such a course of action, and the probability that stronger uptimer states would object to this and intervene to stop them.
If the uptimers haven't conquered the entire world and divided it between themselves within a generation of the ISOT, it'll probably be because they've chosen not to (whether for moral reasons, because committing themselves to policing millions of square kilometers of territory indefinitely and earning the resentment of the downtimers would be a bad idea in the long term, or because it just wouldn't be worth the trouble, probably a mix of all three).
Island territories also make the jump, so Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and various US island territories such as American Samoa will be present in this scenario. Some may opt to become independent countries, but I think there'll probably be some government that forms that claims continuity with the USA.
Come to think of it, that means "Britain is the only nuclear armed country" may not actually be true; Hawaii, Guam, etc. have military bases and there may be some nuclear weapons there.
Modern Japan has many more people than Tokugawa Japan, and if it can't feed itself that may be a problem. Same applies to all the ISOTed countries. The ISOT will have roughly doubled the population of Earth in this scenario, and 1621 agriculture didn't produce large surpluses (and also the world of 1621 didn't have the logistics to collect and move food on the scale that would be necessary to, say, supply 30% of the caloric needs of the 225 million Japanese and Philippino/as for one year).
Even if all the ISOTed countries collapse the world will probably get a big tech boost from all the knowledge the people there will have; even in a worst case scenario this world will likely be building moon rockets in the nineteenth century (technological progress being accelerated by a century seems quite reasonable for a worst case version of this scenario). Of course, that scenario plausibly leads to, say, a moon rocket being built in 1851 by an industrialized modern Chinese state that conquered Japan in the 1760s and now includes Japan as a province.
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