Weird History Challenge (WHC): The ISOT Challenge

[Bassoe]

I've heard about that but never read it. I don't think there is any physical time travel in it though.

I was thinking more like a traditional ISOT but without the ASB.

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There is, albeit just at the start, for two people for a given value of people and they have to build their own civilizations/infrastructure.

There's also AH.com's To Hold The High Ground which has time travelers from a spectacularly dystopian future...

Spoiler: plot spoilers

...who despite having the technological/firepower advantage to easily conquer modern earth, can't use it against us since we're their ancestors, they have to convince us to become them.

 

[Teen Spirit]

I think that of European Capitals, only Warsaw has an actual standing military unit within its city borders, an overbloated riot division with APC's, and as crazy as it sounds, enough food to just shrug off the entire thing and carry on with its existential pettiness.

Communism has taught Poles to squirrel away food in their cellars, and have extensive extras in their kitchens.
We are also possibly the only nation on the planet that has at least 1 supermarket per 5k citizens, that are also 80% food items.
Or have communal gardens and agriculture fields in the middle of an otherwise urbanized area...

Also at the time of this potential shift around 1400~ Warsaw is technically not part of the Polish Kingdom proper, but a vassal duchy... that now sits on the border with the Teutonic Order, that just about everyone hates and has granaries filled with Polish grain, and taxes from its sales and handling.

Our glorious Duck-lord would no doubt soar on through the heavens leading the Poles as the one true savior on an anti-German, but most just and rightful crusade.
Oh boy...

In all seriousness, Poland at the time was the breadbasket of Europe, and its western plains were selling off most of its grains, while the then virgin forests would provide more than enough big game for our hunters.
Assuming Warsaw would seize Pomerania and Greater Poland it could feed itself without actually killing off its ancestors.
The rest of Europe however, suddenly loosing its only exporter of grain would land in a pickle of epic proportions. Or just suffer a massive die-off that would just make conquest (that would no doubt occur) easier.

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So basically Paris, Rome, London and Berlin causing all manner of chaos as law and order breaks down while Warsaw grabs a whole lot of grain and decides it's probably not going to do much sharing right now. Yeah that would be...bad, to make a massive understatement.

 

[kaazmiz]

Yeah that would be...bad, to make a massive understatement.

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It's so much in with the Polish mentality that I can picture it without much issue.

Incidentally there would be, as I realized it after the fact, a few well off European Capitals as well.
San Marino, Vaduz, Andora -though these mostly due to being the capital AND the country itself.
And Bern, because the Swiss are armed, ready, a canton, and pacifist.

 

[We Just Write]

For the timeline with the most wars?

I'd ISOT the Chixiculub impactor to strike the moon on February 1st of 1400. This will serve to randomly bombard the Earth's surface with a large number of destructive-but-not-apocalyptic meteoroids over the next week or so, utterly wrecking any semblances of large-scale coordination or national government. These meteoroids will also cause a large number of tsumanis when they hit water, and may depress crop yields for a couple years from all the ejecta they kick up.

On top of that, I drop in a sizable population of randomly-chosen dinosaurs, selecting both for ones that would actually be able to handle the modern atmosphere, and that are highly likely to be a significant menace to human populations. This serves to turn Earth's surface into a death world, where the only sure method of survival is to ruthlessly apply violence to anyone who dares try and horn in on your precious food supply.

Now that the people are both thoroughly cut off from the rest of the world, traumatized by the meteor bombardment, and have great incentive to be violent towards outsiders, all I need to do is enable that tendency. To this end, the next thing on my list is to ISOT a bunch (probably 2,000,000 total) of modern descendants of the people living on Earth to their respective regions, selecting for those who both are able to speak the old languages and have a working knowledge of how to make explosives or steel. These people will be ISOTed 50 years prior to the impactor hitting, in 1350, in order to give the locals time to gear themselves up.

So, let's review, with my first two ISOTs I turned Earth into a dinosaur-infested death world that's just been blasted with highly destructive meteors all over the place. Meanwhile, with my third ISOT I spread knowledge of how to make advanced metals and explosives so that the locals can get up to all sorts of explosion-fueled mayhem during the interregnum after the impactor hits.

Lets see, is there anyone I could throw in to make this situation even more violent... I mean, I'm trying to optimize for most wars, rather than biggest wars, so...

Ah, I know! A few months after the impact in July of 1400, I'll drop in the Confederate States of America... just not all in one piece. No, I'll sprinkle Confederate towns here-and-there across the wasteland, so that their particular brand of awfulness will DEFINITELY make them a problem for their neighbors, but that they're also split up from reinforcements and largely outnumbered by the locals. This should get a pretty good number of wars with various mini-confederates going as matters inevitably come to blows, but also prevents a unified confederacy from stomping everyone with a massive tech, unity, and numbers advantage.

 

[Anchises]

Incidentally there would be, as I realized it after the fact, a few well off European Capitals as well.
San Marino, Vaduz, Andora -though these mostly due to being the capital AND the country itself.
And Bern, because the Swiss are armed, ready, a canton, and pacifist.

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I thought about ISOTing metropolitan areas which would have made Berlin the hyperpower of this world. Berlin's wider metropolitan area is the state of Brandenburg which would be able to feed Berlin and has some military and industry.

London and Paris would have been even more fucked. Not sure about Moscow and Rome

 

[kaazmiz]

Not sure about Moscow and Rome

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Rome is very old, wide spread with low architecture. It's high population is more due to its spread than actual urbanization.
On the other hand, it does have actual agricultural districts incorporated within the city itself, which also means granaries an food processing.
The biggest benefit, and likely trouble, is that once Rome appears, it would be on the shore of the Mediterranean, or in spitting distance of it. Coupled with a wobbly border that just invites all attackers.

Moscow has over 12 million people to feed, and is dependent on not just local agriculture but imports from further out. It would be in a very precarious pickle, since all of its surroundings in the medieval period were mostly dense virgin forests for some 300 km around.
Forget getting any food, people would be hard pressed to get out to any civilization, and then they'd fall prey to Mongols.

 

[We Just Write]

So does no-one want to comment on me turning 1400 AD into a dinosaur-infested post-impact wasteland?

 

[Nyvis]

I thought about ISOTing metropolitan areas which would have made Berlin the hyperpower of this world. Berlin's wider metropolitan area is the state of Brandenburg which would be able to feed Berlin and has some military and industry.

London and Paris would have been even more fucked. Not sure about Moscow and Rome

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If you want to make Paris work, the whole Ile de France region should do it since it has quite a bit of agriculture.

 

[Teen Spirit]

If you want to make Paris work, the whole Ile de France region should do it since it has quite a bit of agriculture.

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Wasn't the point to not have it work so more chaos?

 

[Anchises]

If you want to make Paris work, the whole Ile de France region should do it since it has quite a bit of agriculture.

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Really? Seems to be the Paris metropolitan area more or less. I wasn't aware that the Ile de France region had such a high agricultural output because I thought it was more urbanized than Brandenburg.

Wasn't the point to not have it work so more chaos?

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I mean I would lie if I said that a war of the cities scenario didn't cross my mind.

ISOT a bunch of cities with barely enough industrial and agricultural support structure. They are quickly forced to go full Imperialism to support their bloated populations without the global economy but they avoid the starvation induced collapse of society.

After a decade or two you should have a few uptimer behemoths with roughly 1900 tech that carve up Europe and are bound to ho to war soon.

 

[Nyvis]

Really? Seems to be the Paris metropolitan area more or less. I wasn't aware that the Ile de France region had such a high agricultural output because I thought it was more urbanized than Brandenburg.

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Ile de France is pretty big.



White is farmland, green is forest, grey is urban.

Seine et Marne is especially agricultural. It's not going to feed Paris by itself without rationing and switching everything to the most efficient cereal you can get, but it's going to do a lot. It's also a seed of trained farmers to expand agriculture into the rest of the world.

 

[We Just Write]

So, seeing as there are still three ISOT slots left for my Dino Death World, does anyone have any recommendations for more things I could do to increase the number of wars and general violence level even further?

 

[ToothMaker]

For the timeline with the most wars?

I'd ISOT the Chixiculub impactor to strike the moon on February 1st of 1400. This will serve to randomly bombard the Earth's surface with a large number of destructive-but-not-apocalyptic meteoroids over the next week or so, utterly wrecking any semblances of large-scale coordination or national government. These meteoroids will also cause a large number of tsumanis when they hit water, and may depress crop yields for a couple years from all the ejecta they kick up.

Click to shrink...

One of Kenneth Hite's old ideas was to have the Tunguska Blast happen at a different time of the day so it struck St. Petersburg instead of the middle of nowhere. I believe it was in the same Suppressed Transmission that I get one of my signature quotes from.

 

[Anchises]

One of Kenneth Hite's old ideas was to have the Tunguska Blast happen at a different time of the day so it struck St. Petersburg instead of the middle of nowhere. I believe it was in the same Suppressed Transmission that I get one of my signature quotes from.

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The interesting question here is how society would react to having it's capital wiped out. There seem to be two schools of thought in regards to this:

1) The optimists who think that economic losses would be relatively limited and who believe that the damages to government structures could healted reasonably fast.

2) The pessimists (which I would see as "my" faction) which think that the damages that wiping out a center of business and administration would cascade into a massive economic and political crisis.
_________________
Short idea I had for most wars:

All of the United States is ISOTed away in 1912. All the colonial powers are free to pursue their imperialist powers for much longer and in this ATLs 2019 decolonization is just beginning. Needles to say that the 20th century was full of colonial- and proxy wars.

 

[grommile]

Obliterating Russia's capital in 1908 would be disastrous.

Possibly less so than what happened in 1917, but still not good.

 

[Alane1]

Hmm the entirety of the Americas is replaced in either 1769 or 1890 by it 1660 counterpart meaning the first french and british empires have just popped back into place along with the bulk of the Spanish empire and Portugal's american holdings plus any other powers that might have had holdings in the Americas at that time.

I imagine that would cause a lot of trouble both internally and externally and I wouldn't surprised if war didn't erupt to secure control over the Americas and their resources.

 

[ToothMaker]

The interesting question here is how society would react to having it's capital wiped out. There seem to be two schools of thought in regards to this:

1) The optimists who think that economic losses would be relatively limited and who believe that the damages to government structures could healted reasonably fast.

2) The pessimists (which I would see as "my" faction) which think that the damages that wiping out a center of business and administration would cascade into a massive economic and political crisis.

Click to shrink...

I'd have to dig the book out to check, but I believe that Hite thought it would lead to a major Christian conservative backlash against the liberalism of the time.

 

[Cetashwayo]

1) The optimists who think that economic losses would be relatively limited and who believe that the damages to government structures could healted reasonably fast.

2) The pessimists (which I would see as "my" faction) which think that the damages that wiping out a center of business and administration would cascade into a massive economic and political crisis.

Click to shrink...

I think it'd be pretty, well, not easy to answer, but you could answer it on firmer ground if you just took a look at how centralized the administration was at the time. Obviously if Berlin was hit this would have a very different impact from London or Paris and the effects would be different because of how power, money, population and industry were distributed. I don't know enough about late Tsarist administration to say, though I'd assume it was quite strong and so the hit to St. Petersburg could be quite fatal to the rule of the Tsar, if not by any means presaging anyone else getting out on top (not to mention the response of other great powers...).

 

[the atom]

So I've had this idea for a story where Canada of 2020 gets sent back to 1830, but rather than becoming a progressive utopia of the sort detailed in A Golden Island to the West, I wanted to see how things would go if shit really hit the fan. The general idea I have is that the instant annihilation of export industries combined the crippling of the service and financial sectors, along with the ensuing catastrophic disruption of every imaginable supply chain causes a panic that the government cannot address, causing a further cycle of disorder and breakdown that spirals out of control. The civilian government simply disintegrates and the military has no choice but to assume control.

What I'm interested in is, how would this new, much diminished Canada look outwards, if at all?

 

[ToothMaker]

So I've had this idea for a story where Canada of 2020 gets sent back to 1830, but rather than becoming a progressive utopia of the sort detailed in A Golden Island to the West, I wanted to see how things would go if shit really hit the fan. The general idea I have is that the instant annihilation of export industries combined the crippling of the service and financial sectors, along with the ensuing catastrophic disruption of every imaginable supply chain causes a panic that the government cannot address, causing a further cycle of disorder and breakdown that spirals out of control. The civilian government simply disintegrates and the military has no choice but to assume control.

What I'm interested in is, how would this new, much diminished Canada look outwards, if at all?

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I'm not convinced of your premise, but at the very least I would expect a outward-looking Canada to attempt to secure control of the Intercoastal Waterway by taking Detroit and Chicago.

 

[kaazmiz]

What I'm interested in is, how would this new, much diminished Canada look outwards, if at all?

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If were talking the whole of Canada, then you're premise would fall apart. For one it can feed itself, two its not as heavily reliant of trade as other states that are heavily invested in heavy industry, shipbuilding, or are middle-men in the electrics assembly process.
The number of people put out of work would be relatively small, and the disruption they could cause very limited, mostly centered around a few cities.

But if you do go with it, Canada is immediately at odds with the British Empire, and while the freshly ascended William is not a hawk, its likely parliament would force him to "subdue the rebellious colony".
Even if the British can't land, or force a blockade, they can quite certainly refuse trade, effectively cutting off Canada from 60% of the worlds markets, limiting their partners for a long time, and making them reliant on the wobbly at the time USA.

With limited shipbuilding and little in terms of heavy industry it would take years to a decade for Canada to be able to flex muscle enough to force changes. At the same time, they would have to constantly police their southern borders to protect them from Indians.

While its entirely possible for Canada to seize the states of Washington (Indians) and Alaska (then Russian) and become the worlds superpower, getting there won't be easy.

 

[Anchises]

I'm not convinced of your premise

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If were talking the whole of Canada, then you're premise would fall apart. For one it can feed itself, two its not as heavily reliant of trade as other states that are heavily invested in heavy industry, shipbuilding, or are middle-men in the electrics assembly process.The number of people put out of work would be relatively small, and the disruption they could cause very limited, mostly centered around a few cities.

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Why do people always assume that ISOTed first world countries would inevitably survive just fine? Sure, Canada won't experience a complete breakdown but the MASSIVE drop of living standards could easily pave the way for autocratic forms of governance.

I feel like people really underestimate the impact of just ripping a country out of the world economy. Sure Canada could feed itself and could quickly reach a point where it's energy needs are taken care of but that's it. Otherwise the economy is completely fucked.

Internet? Gone. Service sector based economy? Unsustainable even in the short run. Satellites? Gone. Computers, cars etc. Not sustainable on the current tech-level. The ones that are already there can't be replaced and establishing new industries will be a massive effort. I could go on but the rapid descent into the 1950s could easily tear the country apart. For the first 30 years the only way to go is down.

So I've had this idea for a story where Canada of 2020 gets sent back to 1830, but rather than becoming a progressive utopia of the sort detailed in A Golden Island to the West, I wanted to see how things would go if shit really hit the fan. The general idea I have is that the instant annihilation of export industries combined the crippling of the service and financial sectors, along with the ensuing catastrophic disruption of every imaginable supply chain causes a panic that the government cannot address, causing a further cycle of disorder and breakdown that spirals out of control. The civilian government simply disintegrates and the military has no choice but to assume control.

What I'm interested in is, how would this new, much diminished Canada look outwards, if at all?

Click to shrink...

I like the idea of exploring the interactions between an economic powerhouse and really underdeveloped states. I think we should look at Africa today to get an idea about the possible effects. HIV is going to spread like wildfire, modern drugs (not the medical ones) will have a devastating impact and the introduction of modern tech doesn't necessarily solve rampant poverty.

For Canada itself I would imagine that the first 20-30 years will be characterized by heavy isolationism. The world does offer very little and the military government has to restructure the whole economy. Between all the natonalizations, work programs and efforts of knowledge conservation there is little room for really engaging with the outside world. Sure, there will be some diplomatic efforts but nothing substantial except for targeted efforts to acquire certain ressources.

Once the situation has stabilized and Canada starts looking outward again it will be faced with a changed world. Canadian's who left will have spread technological knowledge, diseases and modern drugs. Some of them will even be important powerplayers. What Canada's goals are really depends on the person in charge because Canada is likely going to be fairly autocratic.

 

[the atom]

If were talking the whole of Canada, then you're premise would fall apart. For one it can feed itself, two its not as heavily reliant of trade as other states that are heavily invested in heavy industry, shipbuilding, or are middle-men in the electrics assembly process.
The number of people put out of work would be relatively small, and the disruption they could cause very limited, mostly centered around a few cities.

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Being able to feed yourself and being able to redirect supply and repurpose farmland are two different things. A lot of Canadian agriculture is either cash crops, or intended for export.

Speaking of export, anything that relied on exporting raw materials and processed or finished goods is wiped out, and when you eliminate a whole industry there's a lot of ripple effects. No more auto industry, no more shipbuilding industry, no more oil and gas, no more mining, no more forestry, no more cash crop farming, no chemical, etc, etc. The service industry would be a bit more intact but only barely due to the loss of corporate infrastructure and supply chains. Any industry that catered to these industries is likewise crippled. Trucking, mechanical services, maintenance services, industrial and commercial construction etc all take hits and since nobody can afford to build houses there goes residential construction as well. The finance industry is also fucked because what is no doubt a a majority of its debts just went bad. Speaking of finance, what's the CAD worth? For the first while the answer will be 'beats me'. So in light of all this, who's going shopping or eating out? There goes catering, retail, food services etc.

In isolation fixing all this is a Herculean undertaking. Now add the panic factor because everyone knows their job is probably fucked, they don't know that the grocery store will have food at the end of the week, and they have no idea if the government will even be able to fix anything. Looting and the attendant violence would spread like wildfire.

You're correct that the pieces are all there to rebuild a functioning country, but the question of how to put them together and who'll be doing it isn't one that'll be answered quickly.

But if you do go with it, Canada is immediately at odds with the British Empire, and while the freshly ascended William is not a hawk, its likely parliament would force him to "subdue the rebellious colony".
Even if the British can't land, or force a blockade, they can quite certainly refuse trade, effectively cutting off Canada from 60% of the worlds markets, limiting their partners for a long time, and making them reliant on the wobbly at the time USA.

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I'm not sure what imports Canada would be desperately needing, and I'm not sure the British would see retaking the country as possible or even desirable (no British ship is gonna sail past some burning skyscrapers in Halifax and think 'yeah this is a situation we can control')

I like the idea of exploring the interactions between an economic powerhouse and really underdeveloped states. I think we should look at Africa today to get an idea about the possible effects. HIV is going to spread like wildfire, modern drugs (not the medical ones) will have a devastating impact and the introduction of modern tech doesn't necessarily solve rampant poverty.

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That actually might be what defines Canadian relations with the outside world. Meth and opioid use will skyrocket in the country and that'll find a massive market overseas. Future wars might be opium wars.

 

[Anchises]

That actually might be what defines Canadian relations with the outside world. Meth and opioid use will skyrocket in the country and that'll find a massive market overseas. Future wars might be opium wars.

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I am certain that you will have enough "entrepeneurs" to mount a few expeditions to get cocaine and mariuhana production going on a larger scale. 1830 offers a lot of opportunities for the shadier side of Canadian society.

Like you say, Meth and Opioids will be a massive scourge for 1830 world. Imagine the opportunities that Meth would offer for industrializing societies.

 

[xa na xa]

For food, one of the immediately available sources are the dozens of millions of buffaloes that still roam the Great Plains.

Another is cod and other fish in the Atlantic and Grand Banks that would be fully replenished. I imagine existing fishing boats would be supplement by as many as possible other boats and ships that would be drafted/requisitioned, yachts, pleasure boats, etc.