Unless native societies develops advanced sea faring societies, they are fucked. The Europeans failed to colonize areas in africa and Asia a lot. Like a lot a lot. But since Europe was essentially unassailable for most Asian and African societies, they could just keep coming back and waiting like vultures for when the natives are weak and divided and do in America what they did everywhere else
The galleon and caravel much more than the cannon is what won europe's colonial and then imperial empires
The idea of colonialism as we know it was based on the lessons of taking over a ravaged continent. Making puppet states, taking over a city here or there, and swindling land from people happened before but without Spain making so much money they crashed the economy it will not in any way take the shape it did originally. Colonies for the sake of having more colonies then anyone else or not 'falling behind' just won't be as important and having local rulers under your sway or controlling trade hubs. Over time it would get worse but literal ship loads of gold warped Europe just as sure as smallpox warped the Americas.