IPCC Summary for Policymakers
Following new studies into so-called 'snowball effects', it has become evident that their strength had been underestimated by previous reports. Marine methane clathrates destabilize faster than initially thought, and the mitigating effect by microbial consumption of the freed methane, largely overestimated. The same is true for the permafrost methane clathrates, who also show a high level of degassing into the atmosphere. As a result, the release of methane into the atmosphere through such mechanisms had been underestimated by a factor of 5 or more, leading this Panel to reevaluate their predictions. According to the models, methane concentration in the atmosphere will reach 3000 ppm by 2050 and will steadily continue rising throughout the 21st century, aggravating global warming even in the absence of any further anthropogenic CO2 emissions. As such, [...] even under the most aggressive carbon emission reduction scenario (reduction leading to zero emissions by 2040), temperatures will rise by 4-6 K by 2100. Wet-bulb temperatures will follow, reaching 35°C in northern India and Eastern China by 2100 and rendering those regions unsuitable for human life.
[...]
Possible solutions include a combination of carbon-capture and large-scale climate manipulation. However, the untested and dangerous nature of those solutions make it impractical without a possible escape for the affected populations should the climate manipulation fail or produce unexpected results. As such, this Panel recommends a space-oriented policy focus to prepare for the evacuation of climatic refugees that would be impractical to settle in unaffected countries [...]
- AR7 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2027 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
United-Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterrez was sitting at his desk, a heavy file in his hands, his eyes roving through the pages, his expression switching from concerned to weary to determined in the seconds it took him to absorb the sheer scale of the information he had just received.
He had spent ten years as General-Secretary of the United Nations. Ten long years spent struggling like a mighty fool to help reform, renovate, and rejuvenate an Organization that had grown fat and inefficient in its years. Ten years of labor, with nothing to show for it. He had thought he would be up for the task, 10 years ago, still fresh off his success as one of the best Prime Ministers Portugal had ever had. He had thought he would quickly make headway, but he quickly found out that the United Nations had grown into a schizophrenic institution, tasked with solving trans-border issues by member states that yet wouldn't lose even a ounce of their national sovereignty; a sprawling mess of a thousand autonomous agencies, all tasked with different yet overlapping tasks, each struggling against one another for budget and donations, and he found that he, the General-Secretary, had precious few real powers to address this titanic task. Still, he thought as he eyed again the report in his desk, that might yet change. Yes, he thought with a slight bitterness, that report coming up scan few months before the end of his term and the election of the tenth General-Secretary, might change everything.
IN THE WAKE OF SEISMIC IPCC REPORT, THE UN SECRETARY-GENERAL CALLS FOR GREAT INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE
- The Times, 30/10/2027
When the Global Earth Summit started, barely two weeks after the Secretary-General had called it, few had any illusions of its posible success. Hell, similar conferences on the climate had been organized almost yearly since [the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Conference on the Environment] and few had had any degree of success, even the much celebrated Kyoto Conference. And yet, from the start this one felt different. The atmosphere was very tense. The Prime Minister [of Greece] had told [the Greek Ambassador to the UN] to 'come back with a f***** solution'! His electoral success was on the line, no doubt, yet I'm pretty sure there was something more, too. There was a sort of desperate urgency to the talks, something very unusual for diplomatic conferences... So you would think, this would all have been over quickly, right? [laughs]. Well, it wasn't to be. For sure, consensus was formed pretty early between delegates from Europe, South Korea, West Africa... No North/South divide at this conference, for once, but that wasn't enough. The [Permanent Five of the Security Council] were divided. France and Britain, in a rare show of post-Brexit unity, agreed on what was basically the majority opinion: the UN was the only entity competent to address a multinational crisis like this one, and so emergency powers were to be given to the UN to help deal, and to help them build a space program. A UN space program! It sounded ridiculous at the time. To this day I could swear I saw Guterrez was hiding a smile when the British delegate said that, but of course he'd never do such a thing, ha!
But of course, Russia and China and the US, they would have none of it. The threat on national sovereignty was too big, they said, and that's always a powerful argument at the UN, of course. They weren't the only ones, of course, with delegates from North Africa, Brazil, all over the world really, protesting this overreach from the UN... But for most country, the UN was the only sane option. What else? Handing over the reins to the US? To China? The first had spent fifteen years proving itself untrustworthy, so imagine giving them the responsibility of humanity's survival! And China, well, no one liked the idea of handing so much power to a country already so powerful and authoritarian, obviously. So it was the UN or bust, in the end... Nations were slowly rallying to that option, but by then we had already been locked in debates for a full month and now the election of the tenth Secretary-General was coming, and that was a massive can of worms of its own...
- Alexis Andropoulos, Assistant to the Greek Delegate to the UN
"I'm sorry, Mr Secretary-General, but the United States of America have to place their veto on this candidate to the General Secretariat."
"On what grounds?"
"We suspect this candidate would push an unacceptable anti-sovereignty agenda on this institution. In the name of everything this august body stands for, we have to block the proceedings."
"The Popular Republic of China join the US in vetoing that candidate, Mr. Secretary General".
"Your Excellencies have vetoed the last five potential candidates. Perhaps their Excellencies should relax their expectations. This body, august though it may be, will need a head if it is to lead the world through this crisis."
"The UN has never needed to lead anything, Mr. Secretary. I expect you will present us a candidate that understand this, next time".
"I'm afraid that would be unacceptable to the Representatives from France and Great Britain, Your Excellency."
"Then we're deadlocked. That is acceptable as well."
CHINA, US CAST A RECORD 142 VETOES ON GENERAL-SECRETARY CANDIDATES
- The Times, 16/02/2028
By February 2028 the UN deadlock was entering its second year. Daily protests were occuring outside the UN building and in various world capitals to protest the lack of action as experts continues to warn in dire terms about global warming. Perhaps under popular pressure, Russia relented its use of the veto and entered the ranks of the nations massed behind the United Nations and ready to hand over their space programs to the UN's direction, as had most states but the US and China. However, in America itself the combined strength of the coal and gas lobby, the Republican anti-UN majority and a vigorous FOX News campaign managed to get a majority of the population in favor of the UN deadlock, whereas in China concerns over relinquishing control of its space program kept the Party from giving up the veto. Thus as calls for a compromise got louder Antonio Guterrez stayed as Acting Secretary-General of the more and more moribund institution. The situation would soon worsen when China and the US announced in concert the freezing of their contributions to the UN, hoping to asphyxiate the Organization into giving up. The Acting Secretary-General took this as an opportunity however, and led the UN through two more years of lockdown. By the 28th of December, 2029 his plan was made manifest when the General Assembly announced that China and the US were suspended from the UN for non-payment of dues, thus losing them their right to vote and to veto. The 10th Secretary could thus be inaugurated on the First of January, 2030, ready to confront the many issues of the decade...
- History of the 21st Century, Flammarion Edition
While the suspension of China and the US from the United Nations has been widely seen as a victory for the Organization, in truth it was more of a compromise. The very nature of the suspension meant that the countries could regain their vote and veto has soon as they decided to pay their dues and arrears, while keeping them out of the UN and its possible attacks on the independance of their space programs. That was indeed how the suspension was sold to the public in the US and China, though the move was widely decried by Democratic congressmen and left-leaning news outlets. Internationalism was not yet dead in the US...
- A Political History of the United States, Harper Editions
You are the Tenth General-Secretary of the United Nations, called to unite humanity and raise it to the stars, escaping its dying cradle.
For all that, idealism is not the way of diplomacy. You have many people to please if you want them to do what you want, and the spacefaring powers in particular should be showered with attention if they are to shoulder the costs of space colonization. You can thus expect that considerable horse-trading and political manipulations went into your election.
You are:
[] Marco Reggiani
A consummated Italian politician and diplomat, you served with distinction as the Minister for Foreign Affairs, before being named EU Ambassador to Japan. Your background make you well-suited to diplomacy, an important ability for any Secretary-General. However, you are no talented administrator and the complicated technicalities of spaceflight go way over your head. Also, Britain will be upset with you, for obsure reasons. Beside, another General-Secretary from Europe wouldn't be a good look.
Start with +10 EU Opinion, +5 Japan Opinion, -5 Commonwealth Opinion, -5 Minors Opinion, Knack For Diplomacy
[] Ana Ferreira
Ex-head of the Brazilian Space Agency, you are a rarity in a very male-dominated field. An engineer with some talent at administration, you are the perfect fit for a technocratic, result-oriented UN. Cat-herding is not your forte, however. You being preferred over a Russian male equivalent might annoy some people, too.
Start with +10 Minors Opinion, +5 EU Opinion, -5 Russia Opinion, Knack For Space
[] Pryesh Ramanujan
A long-term regional head for Eastern Europe for the International Monetary Fund, you have a talent at finding money in the most unlikely places and will be very useful for a chronically cash-starved UN. Your old feud with the Head of the IMF will cause you issues, however.
Start with +10 India Opinion, +5 Commonwealth Opinion, +5 Russia Opinion, -5 EU Opinion, Knack for Money
As you might have understood, this is a Space Colonization quest where you play as the United Nations, using an adapted CK2 system strongly inspired by mouli's Keeping to the Dream.
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