Nothing to Hide, Part I

I do wanna say that this is the first time I've ever uploaded an image on SV, so something like this was expected. Probably gotta keep this in mind in the future...
 
So, you guys may be wondering why I've made so many posts recently... it mostly has to do with me wanting to finish this timeline's chapter before the end of the year, so I could spend the next year working on developing it further.

That said, the way I'm gonna be making this timeline is going to change pretty drastically: up to this point, I've mostly stuck to developing the timeline one-update-at-a-time, with some minor basic research added to make things reasonably accurate. However, I'm starting to realize that many of the chapters I'm planning to make are simply going to be WAY too complicated to write in this style, so I'm planning to do some deeper research and collect some notes beforehand in order to write these chapters as accurately and plausible as I can. Much of this method will be tried out rewriting some parts of Chapter 1, as there are certain points where I think the writing could've been improved a little.

There are also going to be updates in between Chapters called "Intervals", which will talk about events taking place in other parts of the world both during and after a chapter. Most of these events are pretty small or simply weren't fit to be written in a chapter format, so that's why I'm gonna write them in this form.

All of this will likely mean that the wait for a new update is going to be even longer (or vary even more significantly) than it already was, so you shouldn't be surprised when updates are posted in this way.

I'm honestly trying to make this timeline, despite it being dystopian, at the very least have realistic and plausible events, so any possible feedback is highly appreciated. :D

Anyway, Happy New Year! :)
 
Interval #1: A Nation Turned Blue
Interval #1: A Nation Turned Blue
1910 was a tumultuous year in British politics: the political debacle of the Congolese Intervention had just come to an end, the country was in the midst of a constitutional crisis after the rejection of the People's Budget, and the Prime Minister had lost a significant amount of support due to the various decisions he had made over the past few years. All of these factors had left Parliament, especially the House of Commons, increasingly dysfunctional, as most of the parties proved largely unwilling to cooperate. The British public had become increasingly frustrated with many of these issues, hoping that the General Election, which was to be held in January, would finally be able to break the deadlock in Parliament that had existed for almost an entire year.

Out of all the parties in the British government, the Liberal Party's situation was the worst of them all: the near-collapse of Asquith's government following the reveal of the Katanga Papers had done a significant amount of damage to the party's reputation, and a serious fracture had emerged within the party on what kind of imperial policy the party was to support, something that already came on top of the split within the party revolving around the People's Budget. Just a few months earlier, the House of Lords had vetoed it's implementation, something that had caused a significant amount of uproar amongst the Liberals, who had decided to counter this decision by proposing to reduce the Lords' political power, fueling tensions between the Houses of Parliament and fracturing the House of Commons even further.

Whilst most MPs within the Liberal Party had been in favour of the People's Budget when it was first proposed in 1909, a significant portion had started to turn against it in the months leading up to the General Election. Many were concerned by Asquith's unwillingness to tone down the rhetoric of the radicals within the party, believing that it could lead to the party losing the election if it wasn't kept in check. Public perception of the party was already quite low after all the political squabbles that came with the Congolese Intervention, so having the party framed as one propagating a constitutional crisis and a parliamentary deadlock was something most of them wanted to avoid at all costs.

At the same time, the party was also being torn apart by a faction that had become increasingly radical in the last few years: the "Liberal Imperialists", a subset of Liberals who fervently supported imperialist ideals, whilst the majority of the party had adopted a more moderate stance. This faction, which had largely come about during the Second Boer War and which H. H. Asquith and Sir Edward Grey had been members of, often acted as a thorn in the side of the party, especially following the events surrounding the Katanga Papers. The Liberal League, representing most of these MPs since 1902, had lost a significant amount of influence over the past few years despite desperate attempts to retain its relevance, the most infamous of which was a 1908 speech by its president Lord Rosebery, a Liberal member of the House of Lords, one that even he himself described as "even worse than usual" and "out of touch with politics". Despite this, the controversy of the Katanga Papers had restored much of the League's influence, with Rosebery continuing to hold multiple speeches in support of it, something that frustrated even H. H. Asquith himself.

On the other side of the aisle, the Conservative Party was experiencing a major resurgence in public support, with Arthur Balfour's takedown of the Katanga Papers in front of the House of Commons becoming one of the most widely talked about political events in Britain in years. The events surrounding the Congolese Intervention in general had been able to generate a sense of unity within the Conservative Party, one that was desperately needed after the disastrous electoral loss of 1906, which saw the Conservatives lose over 246 seats and their majority in the House of Commons. The crisis surrounding the People's Budget only added to this sense of unity, with of the Conservatives seeing it as an act of desperation by the Liberals to maintain some level of influence within Parliament. It even led to a small number of defections, as some Liberals and former Conservatives were highly dissatisfied with the current government's domestic and foreign policy. Thus, the Conservative Party entered the 1910 General Election united and energized, ready to take back their majority.

The campaigning itself was fierce, with both sides attempting to attack and outright smear the other as much as possible. Though many of the conservatives resorted to decrying the People's Budget as "socialism", the Intervention had provided them with an extra edge, able to firmly discredit Asquith's entire foreign policy and attempting to paint him as a closet jingoist, one who would wage war with the world if it meant increasing Britain's empire. Most of these claims were centered around Asquith's role as vice-president of the Liberal League, something that he had tried to distance himself from over the past few years. Due to the Katanga Papers, however, his defences against these claims were largely unable to stick and only ended up giving the Conservatives a larger stock of ammunition.

The Liberals, meanwhile, focused on the possible effects of the People's Budget and how it could help alleviate large amounts of poverty through significant tax reforms that would help them implement new social welfare programs. They also put out a large number of posters that claimed the Conservatives were completely unwilling to solve much of the poverty in Britain, either out of incompetence or apathy. Large sections of the working class were able to get behind this message, many of them unconcerned with events in the Congo and wanting the aristocracy to pay their fair share of the tax burden. Much of the campaigning went on for months, with both sides hoping they could rally as much of their base as possible.

The election itself, which lasted for almost an entire month, provided some shocking results: the Conservatives had managed to gain over 198 seats, whilst the Liberals had lost over 136, giving the Conservatives a slim majority in the House of Commons of over 354 seats. The tiny Labour Party, which by this point was only a decade old, had managed to gain over 14 seats, bringing their total number of seats in the House of Commons to over 43. Though the exact reason for Labour's sudden gain of seats is unknown, many expect it was assisted by a number of defections from the Liberal to the Labour Party.

On February 11th, 1910, Arthur Balfour would officially be appointed to serve for the second time as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (his first time being from 1902-1905). Just a few days later, H. H. Asquith would resign as Leader of the Liberal Party. For the Liberals, this would end up causing a problem however: the rule at the time was that the party would be lead by the most recent Prime Minister who was a member of the party, but that man, Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, had been dead since 1908, which would mean that Lord Rosebery, who had served as Prime Minister from 1894-1896 and was still politically active, was to become the party's new leader. Understandably, many within the party were completely unwilling to have him as the party's frontman, which meant that a different leader would have to be selected. After weeks and weeks of debating, a new Leader of the Liberal Party was finally found in the form of Herbert Gladstone. Gladstone had been Home Secretary under H. H. Asquith, and many believed that his skills on the front of internal affairs could help the Liberals in implementing some of the policies laid out in the People's Budget. King Edward VII was most certainly not happy with this: his relationship with Gladstone was marked by a series of unfortunate incidents, some have even speculated that he was a scapegoat for the King's general frustration with the Liberal government. Having him selected as Leader of the Liberal Party partially damaged the relationship between the party and the King.

Following the election, Arthur Balfour immediately set to work changing much of Britain's foreign policy with only one clear goal in mind: keeping Britain separate from colonial squabbles between the various European powers and adopting a more isolationist position. Together with the Earl of Minto, the new Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and former Governor-General of both India and Canada, he set about creating the foundations of what would later become known as "peacemaker diplomacy", attempting to create an image of Britain abroad as a neutral negotiator to restore some of the country's international relations and prestige, though this wouldn't be enough to restore the damaged relations with France. This would obviously mean a slight loosening of not just imperial expansion, but also control, something that the Earl of Minto was very skeptical about: he had helped draw up the Indian Councils Act, which created a more balanced share of power between the Indians and the British in the Raj, despite disagreeing heavily with those reforms. He didn't retire early from his position as Governor-General of India to see Britain weaken its grip over her empire. This was only one of the many things that Balfour would be forced to deal with as the new British Cabinet took to her seats.

Unfortunately for him, his diplomacy would be in for a hard and unexpected test…
 
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Interval #2: The Eagle Takes Flight, Pt. 1
Interval #2: The Eagle Takes Flight, Pt. 1
France after the success of the Congolese Intervention was a country in a state of uplift and joy. Armand Fallières' popularity amongst the French people was at its highest point during the entirety of his presidency, with his party, the Democratic Republican Alliance, looking poised to win the upcoming French legislative elections. France's Prime Minister, Aristide Briand, was confident that it would allow him to form a second government between the Radicals, who were mostly represented by the Radical Party (PRRRS) and the left-wing Republicans in the Democratic Republican Alliance (ARD). Thus, the results of the 1910 legislative elections were expected well ahead of time: the ARD gained a total of 44 seats, with the PRRRS making minor gains in the form of only 3 extra seats. This was roughly equal to the number of seats won by the only other major party that had made significant gains in the election, the socialist SFIO (French Section of the Workers' International), who saw their number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies nearly double from 54 to 100 seats.

Briand, who belonged to the small number of Independent Socialists, was surprised but also concerned by these results. He himself had been unwilling to join the SFIO during its creation in 1905, mostly due to a combination of slight ideological differences and his frustration with party leadership, which had forbidden him from getting a position within the government of Georges Clemenceau as Minister of Public Instruction and the Fine Arts in 1906, prompting him to break away from the SFIO and join the Independent Socialists. He feared that the strict party organization and increasing control of its leaders could weaken the growth of the socialist movement in France and might even decrease public support for the socialist cause.

After months of negotiating to form the new government, Braind set to work introducing a series of social welfare programs and reforms, increasing pensions for workers and farmers as well as introducing compulsory sickness and old-age insurance. On the foreign policy front, both Fallières, Stéphen Pichon and the new Minister of the Colonies, Jean Morel, set to work partially restoring relations with Britain after the chaos and uncertainty of the Katanga Papers and during the final days of the Congolese Intervention. Though the Entente Cordiale was most certainly defunct, Fallières wanted to ensure that some kind of cordial agreement remained between the two countries to prevent future schisms from taking place. Though British Prime Minister Arthur Balfour was easily approachable on this matter, he believed it was too early to drum up enough support in Parliament for such a measure, and thus reluctantly was forced to decline the offer, though he reassured Fallières that he would remain personally committed to its adoption. Unfortunately for Fallières, this was nothing compared to the crisis that was looming on the horizon…

Ever since the Scramble for Africa, Morocco's position relative to the European powers had been rather dubious. Though its independence had been guaranteed at the Conference of Madrid (1880), countries like France, Spain and Germany had made several attempts to increase their influence and expand their spheres of interest into the region. Germany in particular had been aggressive in its approach to this matter, with Kaiser Wilhelm II's attempt to support Moroccan sovereignty and weakening of French influence over the country resulting in the First Moroccan Crisis (1905-1906), which ended up damaging Germany's relations with Britain and France and helped strengthen the Entente Cordiale. The event which ended the crisis, the Algeciras Conference (1906), had failed to provide closure on the issue, with simmering tensions remaining between Germany and France over various conflicting economic interests that couldn't be resolved. Due to the Brussels Conference (1909) causing a breakdown in relations between Germany and the members of the Congolese Intervention, a proposed convention on Morocco to be held in February 1909 between Germany and France had been vehemently rejected by Wilhelm II himself.

By 1911, Morocco itself was in a state of chaos. The Sultan, Abd Al-Hafid, who had taken power from his younger brother Abdelaziz following public outrage and a rebellion in Morocco once the details the Algeciras Conference became public, was now faced with a rebellion of his own. Trapped inside his palace in the city of Fez, Abd Al-Hafid could only watch helplessly as native rebels threatened to take control of the city. In order to protect French interests in Morocco and prevent the situation from spiraling out of control, the French government decided to send in troops to put down the rebellion. Unfortunately for Morel and Fallières, this decision turned out to be less effective than hoped: due to France's growing military commitments across Africa (especially in the Congo region), the number of troops involved had to be cut in half from 20.000 to 10.000, lessening France's ability to put down the revolt and forcing an increased dependence on soldiers from Morocco itself, most of whom had a mixed opinion of Abd Al-Hafid. Nevertheless, military assistance from Spain helped in partially bridging this gap in manpower, meaning that the rebellion's end was well on its way by the end of May.

For Wilhelm II, this decision proved to be unacceptable: he knew that France's control over Morocco had been growing tighter and tighter in the last few years, with the putting down of this "rebellion", which he considered either gravely exaggerated or even completely made up, being the final step in France seizing Morocco as a protectorate. Based on this information and hoping to face France's perceived imperial expansion head-on, Germany's new Foreign Secretary, Alfred von Kiderlen-Waechter, decided to dispatch a naval cruiser to the Moroccan port of Agadir in an attempt to put pressure on the French and encourage increased rebellion against them. This cruiser, the SMS Panther, which had been heading home from Kamerun (Cameroon) back to Germany for a major overhaul and was meant to pick up coal supplies in Morocco on the way home, was now diverted from its mission to accomplish this task. French forces stationed in Agadir were most certainly surprised when the German steamer showed up at the port on July 1st, with the reaction from Britain and France being near-immediate, both nations firmly condemning the German action.

For Arthur Balfour, the situation was a major headache: directly resisting German aggression and siding with France in Morocco would completely go against what his "peacemaker diplomacy" had been advocating, which would likely damage his public perception and make many in Parliament question the honesty of his proposals, whilst going in the opposite direction and have Britain not intervene at all went against many of the terms established in the Entente Cordiale, still considered to be Britain's de-jure foreign policy, and his personal commitment to it, as well as possibly damaging Anglo-French relations to the point of no return. Even his Foreign Secretary was clueless on how to approach the situation when taking account of all these underlying factors, with the Earl of Minto rapidly cobbling together various bits and pieces of information to formulate a British response. This confusion and uncertainty left the British government paralyzed in what would later become known as the "Agadir Crisis" (sometimes also referred to as the "Second Moroccan Crisis").

Meanwhile, under pressure from Wilhelm II himself to amplify German pressure on the French to leave Morocco, Waechter decided to expand Germany's naval presence at Agadir even further, sending out the larger Bremen-class cruiser SMS Berlin and the smaller SMS Eber in order to assist the Panther, joining it on July 4th. This sent the French government into an uproar, with many demanding that the President make the Germans back down from their aggressive behavior and remove their ships from the port, by force if necessary. Though openly and personally stating before the entire National Assembly that he would not back down in the face of German aggression, Fallières was in an ever-increasing state of panic behind closed doors: attempts by France's ambassador to Germany, Jules Cambon, to get any kind of compromise or negotiation out of the government in Berlin turned up nothing, as it either refused these offers outright or gave demands the French government would be unable to accept. He even managed to get in contact with Imperial Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, who was willing to decrease the number of German ships at Agadir but refused to remove them entirely until all French troops had left Morocco. Fallières was under the impression that the Chancellor had conceded to the desires of Waechter and Wilhelm II.

As the situation continued to deteriorate further and further for another three days, even the more moderate members of the French government became more and more eager to remove the Germans from Agadir by force. Large sections of the French Navy had been readied for a possible naval clash off the Moroccan coast, with the French Medditeranean Fleat planning to move out if the German cruisers hadn't left the harbor by July 10th. Events in Agadir, however, took a slightly different turn. Though historians have debates to this day over the exact cause, either an accidental ignition or a weapon crate that wasn't sealed properly, the entirety of the city woke up on the morning of July the 7th to a massive explosion, witnessing much of the harbor go up in flames due to a raging inferno. It is believed that this explosion at the port was interpreted by the still sleepy and stunned French commanders as a German attack, ordering their troops to man the coastal forts and return fire to the enemy. The result was a two hour-long firefight between the German naval cruisers and the French troops stationed in the port, leaving tens dead, hundreds injured, and an uncountable number of bodies on the ocean floor.

The Agadir War had begun…
 
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Oohhh... this is bad, really, really bad. Great war here we come.
 
Ah. The Panthersprung nach Agadir, yes, ri....

The Agadir War had begun…

...oh.

Though it is telling that it's called "Agadir War".

Not "the Great War".

Not even "the 2nd Franco-German War".

Just "the Agadir War". Sounds to me it will stay a minor and hence probably quick affair. Either a "short victorious war" (with the bad precedent that would set) or a mediation intervention does succeed in time, after all.
 
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