Inspired by the "Modern China ISOT to 1945" thread.
What changes could a small but modern size...
What changes could a small but modern size...
Modern Day Portugal transported to 1936 (outbreak of the Spanish Civil War)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
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Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
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- Portugal
Inspired by the "Modern China ISOT to 1945" thread.
What changes could a small but modern size country like Portugal do in 1936, more specifically during the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War. Would it feed the Republicans modern weapons like assault rifles and small arms (which we can make locally)? Have the Air force fly a F-16 to wherever Franco or Hitler are and drop a GBU bomb into wherever they are? Would it stop WWII from escalating or even begin?
In this era, the colonies are still part oft he Empire, so would people automatically give them independence? What about the African born citizens here?
How would the rest of the world react to a country that while not a superpower and relatively small, in this era boasts a technological superiority bar none and yet no infrastructure to go on world conquering spree?
Portuguese Army - Wikipedia
Portuguese Air Force - Wikipedia
Portuguese Navy - Wikipedia
National Republican Guard (Portugal) - Wikipedia
What changes could a small but modern size country like Portugal do in 1936, more specifically during the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War. Would it feed the Republicans modern weapons like assault rifles and small arms (which we can make locally)? Have the Air force fly a F-16 to wherever Franco or Hitler are and drop a GBU bomb into wherever they are? Would it stop WWII from escalating or even begin?
In this era, the colonies are still part oft he Empire, so would people automatically give them independence? What about the African born citizens here?
How would the rest of the world react to a country that while not a superpower and relatively small, in this era boasts a technological superiority bar none and yet no infrastructure to go on world conquering spree?
Portuguese Army - Wikipedia
Portuguese Air Force - Wikipedia
Portuguese Navy - Wikipedia
National Republican Guard (Portugal) - Wikipedia
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- Location
- Italia
Don't want to bust the bubble, but isn't Portugal in the Euro? Wouldn't the sudden shift cause a full economic collapse? Also would the 1356 Alliance still be a thing with the UK? Lastly you mentioned the colonies, wouldn't they be against the new government because the whole Estado Novo doctrine at the time? (Sorry if I sound too vicious in my exposition, just feeling a little bummed today.)
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
What+´s wrong?
- Location
- Italia
Nah, just don't feeling well in general. Plus feeling (dumbly I guess) underappreciated. Nothing more than the usual.
HolyDragoon
Call Gespenst!
- Location
- Portugal
Well, the monetary issue was already addressed above, and that's the one issue whose repercussions are less clear to me generally.
@JustBukharin I don't really think the alliance would be denounced, not to mention the ISOT would make Portugal more 'interesting' for the English, even if just as a 'heavier' counterweight for Spain relationship with the Axis.
I don't really think WWII would be 'stoppable' just by interfering in the Spanish Civil War.
In fact, I think nothing should be done in that war beyond keeping watch over the borders and (possibly) offering humanitarian support. In this situation, doing so would probably be just another foolish campaign like D.Sebastião's one. If Franco decided to have any funny ideas though, all bets would be off.
While Portugal would have a technological boost, as you said, the infrastructure is a whole different can of worms, though off my head I can recall some companies that would probably mean that stuff like semiconductors and integrated circuits would still be within our reach, even if not top of the line for nowadays. Fuel refineries should be enough, but it would turn out to raise another issue of where to get a steady oil supply?
(Can Portugal even refine jet fuel?)
Also, would the natural resources be at the levels of 1936, or at current levels?
About the colonial holdings... well wouldn't that be a fine mess both through uptimer views and the colonial governments, though part of me gets fuzzy feelings when thinking about letting the Comandos to do funny things to Japanese soldiers who might try to have funny ideas regarding the treatment of Timorese people.
@JustBukharin I don't really think the alliance would be denounced, not to mention the ISOT would make Portugal more 'interesting' for the English, even if just as a 'heavier' counterweight for Spain relationship with the Axis.
I don't really think WWII would be 'stoppable' just by interfering in the Spanish Civil War.
In fact, I think nothing should be done in that war beyond keeping watch over the borders and (possibly) offering humanitarian support. In this situation, doing so would probably be just another foolish campaign like D.Sebastião's one. If Franco decided to have any funny ideas though, all bets would be off.
While Portugal would have a technological boost, as you said, the infrastructure is a whole different can of worms, though off my head I can recall some companies that would probably mean that stuff like semiconductors and integrated circuits would still be within our reach, even if not top of the line for nowadays. Fuel refineries should be enough, but it would turn out to raise another issue of where to get a steady oil supply?
(Can Portugal even refine jet fuel?)
Also, would the natural resources be at the levels of 1936, or at current levels?
About the colonial holdings... well wouldn't that be a fine mess both through uptimer views and the colonial governments, though part of me gets fuzzy feelings when thinking about letting the Comandos to do funny things to Japanese soldiers who might try to have funny ideas regarding the treatment of Timorese people.
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- Italia
@HolyDragoon The reason why I bought that up (and because I think the British wouldn't truly be eager to ally with portugal) is because of their current political government. A mixed platform of Social-Democrat/Socialist Party is currently ruling. (Social Welfare is still a big no-no for the Conservative Party.)
Also Portugal might as well contemplate merely supporting the fighting nations than joining itself as war for modern nations is way more expensive and damaging if too much extended.
Lastly the whole Portugal whining (rightfully so) to stop Germany right by Sudeten Crisis. (something that might find strong opposition from UK and France (The latter is kind of in a political crisis and early war would be quite difficult to face with PCF at their doors))
I wouldn't say that it would be utterly impossible, I just think it would be incredibly messy and could lead to so many paths. It depends on the politics and the economic limitations.
Also Portugal might as well contemplate merely supporting the fighting nations than joining itself as war for modern nations is way more expensive and damaging if too much extended.
Lastly the whole Portugal whining (rightfully so) to stop Germany right by Sudeten Crisis. (something that might find strong opposition from UK and France (The latter is kind of in a political crisis and early war would be quite difficult to face with PCF at their doors))
I wouldn't say that it would be utterly impossible, I just think it would be incredibly messy and could lead to so many paths. It depends on the politics and the economic limitations.
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Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
I think we can, not sure thou.
More advanced gear might have to downgraded or even mothballed, but Cold War Era gear is still a plenty and a M47 or a F-86 Sabre are still gonna be unstoppable to anything 1936 era armies can throw at them. Spending resorces with Leopard 2 tanks or ATGMs is just plain overkill and a waste of resources.
As for stopping WWII, the FAP can literally make Hitler and the Nazi leadership explode whenever and wherever they want. All it takes is one F-16 armed with guided or even dumb bombs to fly to Berlin.
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- Italia
Wouldn't that make Stalin a bit trigger-murdery? The mere idea that a nation could easily bomb people, people like him.
I think espionage would work better. Just give weapons to the Zentrum and other underground Democratic parties in Berlin and let them have a civil war. There would be a price, but not one as high as OTL WW2.
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
Good point. Although pretty sure that a nation with what it looks like scifi tech is gonna make him paranoid nonetheless. The only viable option is to go to the Allies and go "Hey, want to get jet engine tech and better weapons?" Even 1950s or 60s tech is gonna be a HUGE leap in tech for the West.
Then again, the US is gonna freak out when the see people of color serving in the military TOGETHER with white ones and many in high rank positions within the military. That will raise more than a few eyebrows and might kickstart the Civil Rights movement sooner.
"Black people commanding whites? The sheer outrage!"
Then again, here is a people who know what´s gonna happen in WWII, from the war itself to the Holocaust. There will be a large segment of the population screaming at the top of their collective lungs to prevent it before it happens somehow, but we might need to take into account traitors who might want to help the nazis.
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HolyDragoon
Call Gespenst!
- Location
- Portugal
@JustBukharin That is a legitimate concern, but I think said mistrust would probably last until the British could establish formal channels and get the insights from the nationals in Portugal.
As for offensive operations, that is why I suggested just to keep to the borders and support when asked for. As it is right now, light, fast actions are doable (I think it is the current focus of the military), but taking a belligerent role in the conflict would probably fracture somewhat the society, even if the intentions were good.
@Sabertooth Pattons would do, and we could probably use our desenmerding skills to cook up an improvised MBT that could at least face the downtime tank designs of the time.
Jokes aside, I think the F-16s in PAF service are a bit gimped, ordnance-wise? I do know there were troubles in past missions because the PAF F-16s couldn't carry some of the ordnance used by other countries...
edit: oooh mixed service, how that tickles me. Wonder if we could do a gradual decolonization process, probably keep the USSR mittens out of those particular zones of Africa and try to prevent the shitstorm that happened?
As for offensive operations, that is why I suggested just to keep to the borders and support when asked for. As it is right now, light, fast actions are doable (I think it is the current focus of the military), but taking a belligerent role in the conflict would probably fracture somewhat the society, even if the intentions were good.
@Sabertooth Pattons would do, and we could probably use our desenmerding skills to cook up an improvised MBT that could at least face the downtime tank designs of the time.
Jokes aside, I think the F-16s in PAF service are a bit gimped, ordnance-wise? I do know there were troubles in past missions because the PAF F-16s couldn't carry some of the ordnance used by other countries...
edit: oooh mixed service, how that tickles me. Wonder if we could do a gradual decolonization process, probably keep the USSR mittens out of those particular zones of Africa and try to prevent the shitstorm that happened?
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Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
@JustBukharin That is a legitimate concern, but I think said mistrust would probably last until the British could establish formal channels and get the insights from the nationals in Portugal.
As for offensive operations, that is why I suggested just to keep to the borders and support when asked for. As it is right now, light, fast actions are doable (I think it is the current focus of the military), but taking a belligerent role in the conflict would probably fracture somewhat the society, even if the intentions were good.
@Sabertooth Pattons would do, and we could probably use our desenmerding skills to cook up an improvised MBT that could at least face the downtime tank designs of the time.
Jokes aside, I think the F-16s in PAF service are a bit gimped, ordnance-wise? I do know there were troubles in past missions because the PAF F-16s couldn't carry some of the ordnance used by other countries...
The MLUs can carry pretty much all NATO ordance, but here its just gonna be a waste of parts and bombs.
I think that modern military aircraft, especially with precision munitions, are enough of an out of context problem in the 30s that there could be a good couple of months after they get seriously involved in a conflict in which no one else even knows what countermeasures to take. If they stick to bombing at night, people will probably even assume someone snuck in explosives on the ground. Quite frankly, if I had to pick I'd hope that advantage got used on Hitler rather than Franco, but there's no need to pick. Germany was legitimately a combatant in the Spanish civil war, despite the polite fiction that the international community maintained at the time.
If Portugal chose to get involved, they would be able to pretty much instantly neutralize the Nationalist air power and armor advantage and flatten any leadership or industrial targets they could find. The USSR wouldn't be able to get the same position of influence that they used to strangle the revolution, but I am unfortunately not convinced that the Portuguese ruling class wouldn't just do it instead. A socialist party in the ruling coalition is all fine and good, but until you abolish capitalism there are going to be powerful and wealthy people who feel very threatened by anyone trying to abolish private ownership of the means of production.
If Portugal chose to get involved, they would be able to pretty much instantly neutralize the Nationalist air power and armor advantage and flatten any leadership or industrial targets they could find. The USSR wouldn't be able to get the same position of influence that they used to strangle the revolution, but I am unfortunately not convinced that the Portuguese ruling class wouldn't just do it instead. A socialist party in the ruling coalition is all fine and good, but until you abolish capitalism there are going to be powerful and wealthy people who feel very threatened by anyone trying to abolish private ownership of the means of production.
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
There´s a few nazi admirers here, what guarantees would we have that they won´t try and change history so their idol wins the war?
- Location
- Italia
Historically speaking, Portgual is quite known for having suppressed Nazis. If the colonial administration is all selected from the National Union, then they would never support a Nazi regime. I would hardly think they would gain much from that involvement, especially with the possibility of the central government in Lisbon raising some hell about it.
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
I mean present day nazis who worship Hitler, we have those here. I could see them be VERY willing to skip town with history books and tech information (commonly available in books) and fly to Germany and try to alter history.
- Location
- Italia
It would still leave Germany unable to truly accomplish much. One of the few things that messed the Nazis was the lack of resources and, if the news that someone went to do this kind of stuff, I bet Portugal would declare war at Germany immediately as... nobody wants nazis to have nukes by early 1940s.
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13th Bee
Worker
- Location
- Tennessee, USA.
Honestly, the war might well end up not happening as the future Allies get proof that the Axis are totally willing to start an utterly devastating war if appeased, and thus be willing to play much more hardball. At the same time, the future Axis powers getting compelling evidence about how badly a war would go for them might scare them out of it.
Japan might still start shit, since they had some real issues with their high command not actually having all that much control.
Japan might still start shit, since they had some real issues with their high command not actually having all that much control.
In OTL France could destroy Germany in 1939 on West.Now,that could attack and win - althought Poland in this scenario would die anyway.
But sending Portugal back in time is good idea - smaller country would just get absorbed,bigger would go for conqest....
They are just good-sized to prevent any cumberstomp.Which would be boooring.
But sending Portugal back in time is good idea - smaller country would just get absorbed,bigger would go for conqest....
They are just good-sized to prevent any cumberstomp.Which would be boooring.
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
Advanced enough to prevent any massive conquest through way superior tech and small enough that it cannot go on a rampage through Europe.
MaHaL
Conductor of the Choir of Death
- Location
- Canada
I'd dispute that, the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance has a decent claim as the longest standing international treaty in existence.
If 1890 didn't break that alliance I doubt anything done by a Portuguese government that, while probably too liberal and socialist for the Brits to be really happy, hasn't gone full communist will.
Who is Portugal going to support, the Republicans who might be the lesser of two evils ore the Nationalists, ore maybe Portugal supports the current modern Spanish government which exist in the form of the Spanish embassy in Portugal.
Sabertooth
Currently on a road trip with Magnus the Red
- Location
- Portugal
Well, not the side on where the fucking nazis are on, that´s for sure. But that´s a great point, there´s a spanish embassy here, who is staffed by present day spanish people.
KhazintheDark
May or may not be insane...
- Location
- Not where you are. Probably.
This thread has just given me the horrific thought regarding what would happen if the UK went back.
A Royal Navy without the numbers of ships required, smaller industrial production, Farage, Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg. The fucking EDL (far right something group).
That might even cause a loose condition Jesus Christ.
A Royal Navy without the numbers of ships required, smaller industrial production, Farage, Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg. The fucking EDL (far right something group).
That might even cause a loose condition Jesus Christ.
- Location
- Italia
...You seriously think the major issues would be political? Ignoring that there is still a Dominion System in the entire Commonwealth, India is still a british puppet and... oh my, there wouldn't be Israel.
I want to sounds neutral on this bit, objective even, as most of the leadership that would form Israel was from the 1936!UK. With them gone, Palestine would be have to be given all to Arabs.