Interim solutions

This chat is secure anyway, though it does tell me who the cult leader is which I wouldn't otherwise know. For this setup, we can probably just run with this PM?

Assuming you had a selection for this, you got a vanilla process this time. Sorry. If it was randomly picked, you got the ~60% chance of vanilla.


Strategy-wise, the most important thing is probably poisoning the well in regards to which oracles to what, and finding the players with questions.

I'm thinking this setup might be a bit vulnerable to a full-reveal and coordination of questions, since we don't have the killpower to completely gut the attempt, and attempts at poisoning that well would be a major indicator.

In this game setup, anyone appearing massively towncore will likely be suspicious, because they'd be priority 1 or 2 for culting. Busing to prove a claim could work, but likely isn't a great longer term strategy. Maybe it could "prove" a claim that a given oracle is correct, poisoning that well?

Safest for you is likely to hide out in the low activity zone or stick in the middle-pack where you contribute some but aren't driving things.

On my end, my planned strategy as a vanilla would have been to breadcrumb process tracker or virus scanner, hoping to divert attention from the actual town power roles. I don't think I've done this often enough for deviating to be a red flag yet, so I could change things up a bit if you have a better idea.
 
I definitely don't have a better idea for that 😅. Full confession, I culted you because I wanted someone who was plenty experienced and smart, but I didn't want to choose someone who is often the center of attention or targeted, like Nictis or Shalmoa.

Since my role card is public info, I wouldn't mind discussing it. Of course all decisions will change based on the events of the day, but I'd be open to any suggestions on who to kill or cult.
 
Thank you for the compliment. I'll try to live up to it.

For targets, Nictis is probably going to be the center of attention either way, and is good enough to swing the game on the social field. Kill or cult, priority 1. This can be reasonably predicted, so they'll likely eat a vote at some point, so don't get invested here. Still, the chaos can be worth it. Wine option is to leave them alone like the landmine they are, and let players assume they've been culted. They're usually good enough to deflect this line, but a cult format might disrupt that.

I'd put Scia, LostDevilho, Draxy, Cyricubed, Scia, and Shalmoa in a priority 2 category. IIRC, Draxy might move up to 1.5 later game, being good at drawing together the setup and solving it that way.

NinetyNineLies, Twisted Mind, and Snickers4444... I'm foggy on details, but I have an impression of at least some of them being potential landmines to cult, simply by having heavy scumtells naturally. IIRC, Twisted Mind is mostly a newer player with a low sample size there, and so may have improved to be a dark horse choice, but I probably wouldn't fire a kill or cult into this group.

The rest don't have a strong enough impression with me to make recommendations.
 
Good insight into Draxy, I hadn't really thought of them since they're a newer player but you're right, they have been pretty good late game.
 
Thinking on it further, there is one role that absolutely needs to die as soon as we can manage it: the intrusion tracer, since it's stronger than it looks. If it asks the same oracle twice, and gets the same result, that might well be you done for. I haven't gotten a response back yet if the oracle which always lies will return a random result or an active lie (with consistency if still valid), and in the case that it's random two questions to the oracle can identify an oracle with high confidence.

The oracle finders get a similar benefit, being able to ask an oracle twice and know that they have the wrong one if they get differing responses. This isn't quite as bad, but could be a problem.

Virus scanner and process scanner aren't as much of a threat, here, since they can't expect consistent results.
The above analysis will risk outing you as scum via perspective slip if you're thinking about it while writing, so you may wish to leave it, as it isn't of much practical purpose at this point, merely informing targeting later.
 
Ah, insight. Nictis is doing the thing again, flagrantly roleplaying when they have a role they enjoy. Given the setup, I'd give ~80% confidence that they have a power role, with less confidence as to which one, the remainder account for that Nictis is well aware of this habit and may be bluffing.

We'll see how D1 plays out, but my advice at the moment is for me to shoot in the priority 2 pool tonight while you query an oracle, then we'll see how Nictis stands D2. If still alive and only under moderate suspicion, cult them and try to keep ambiguity as to when they get culted, which should stand mechanically as long as I don't get caught D1 or D2.
 
Data received regarding the liar oracle, it always answers with a valid random answer rather than maliciously picking an answer. Under that, I think we have until D4 before the oracle finders start announcing certainty, on average, and about 50% that your identity gets confirmed by the intrusion tracer N4, up to ~87.5% N6.

... being that we have 13 players, I'm kind of doubting the game lasts that long without swinging one way or the other. Still, the longer we keep you alive the better.
 
Noting a small gut feeling, Cyricubed feels like a priority target after reading posts so far, as he feels like someone trying not to draw attention. Uncertain which is better between kill or cult.
 
Looks like you're coming up unlikely to be cult, at least in Nictis's notes, and I don't think you came up for anyone as a priority cult target, so you're probably fairly safe for now. Well done.
 
Nothing unexpected there. Too bad we didn't hit a power role with the vote, but at least we didn't lose someone D1. We'll probably want to end tomorrow on different wagons, unless something comes up to make someone an obvious vote.

I'm still leaning towards throwing a shot at Cyricubed, but could be convinced otherwise. Thoughts?
 
It was a pretty uneventful day, surprisingly so. I don't mind a Cyricubed shot, I think it would be interesting to leave Nictis and Shalmoa alive for now with the possibility of culting them next night. There isn't really a strong town voice that I think is important to get rid of, so yeah, sounds good.
 
Looks like that gut feeling paid off well, hitting the priority target among town power roles.

That changes things for both sides, since you can stick around much longer on average, but town is now incentivized to make riskier plays to overcome the disadvantage. We might see the oracle finders claim and reveal results, in an attempt to bring the virus scanner online, since it's one of the strongest remaining and I'm not seeing a way for it to self-confirm an oracle without comparing to flips repeatedly to rule oracles out.

Proposing that for town feels like a medium-risk play from our side, due to possibly getting read as a perspective slip for evaluating roles by greatest threat or scum-sided for calling for power roles to reveal before they want to, so I'd recommend giving the idea a decently wide berth.

One obviously town-sided act for this day phase would be to look for who was interacting with Cyricubed, or at the dynamics of yesterday's wagons. I don't have any great advice for what to look for there.


Unless they somehow latch onto you today, which feels unlikely, we should probably be looking for who to cult. Nictis remains a strong, though obvious, choice, though if they keep up the habit of pasting their notes a kill might be better. It's a great strategy in a cult game, since makes tracking opinion changes easier.

Alternative targets... I'm thinking Draxy hits the right balance of competent, and with enough potential targets at that level of wine to not be easily predicted. And I'm guessing they've a PM or head full of notes we likely want to head off being used.


A byte for your thoughts?
 
Marking Zaealix as possibly being the virus scanner. If they picked the wrong oracle, scanned Nictis twice, and randomly got yes twice, that would explain the confidence shown here.

First wine layer is a vanilla bluffing being the virus scanner to draw fire away from power roles. Picking Nictis to "scan" is a stretch here, though.

Alternatively, this is something else. An extension of the meme phase, perhaps, or a read that is being slow-walked.
 
... and then he just goes and claims it.

Think we can get away with culting someone else tonight and leaving him as the obvious cult target to eat a vote tomorrow? Or should we take him as a low-risk play, removing the second-strongest power role from the board, and if he gets picked up as the obvious cult target it's effectively just a slightly delayed nightkill that delayed the town's votes?
 
Full-reveal has been floated. If it comes to that, have a plan for your response, as an overlong delay to think on it may be indicative. You have a lot of flex there, because sleep schedules and whatnot, but a reasonably quick response will likely be seen as more honest.

I would suggest claiming error corrector, the vanilla role, since that has the most claim space.

My plan is to claim process tracer or oracle finder, whichever hasn't had someone eliminated yet, to keep that claim space clear for you by there being the correct number present, and poison the well on that power role. Leaning process tracer if I have the choice, since it'll be harder to catch out and could be the more valuable well.
 
If the mass reveal follows Nictis's schedule, and we cult a power role that isn't Zaealix, we could do a mid-risk play by having them claim vanilla, and you claim their power role. If the hunt then gets targeted at the vanillas where someone is clearly lying, you'd be clear of it.

There's also the option of upsetting the play by killing tonight, or no-oping. It's suboptimal, especially in no-op's case, but would induce a fair bit of paranoia. Killing, we get a cult action after the proposed mass-reveal, or they delay it a turn. No-op, town assumes we've culted and proceeds with the mass reveal, then we have our pick of targets. At the second night with no kill, they'll catch on that we did it.

Either involves slowing our rate of progression though, and I'm unsure that the rewards match that risk.
 
I would recommend being cautious with ratings. If I go down as scum, and someone doing a reread of my posts finds that you're the only one leaving a like on a post, that might be enough to connect us and get someone asking the right questions.

I'm not saying to not do it, but do be mindful that it could give a hint if you leave a pattern.
 
Got it. As for Zaealix, yeah I guess either way is good. They have made a strong claim, but don't seem to be drawing too much ire for it. I'm not sure if the strongest cult is someone who has been vocal, or someone who is quiet.
 
Tomorrow is when the bulk of suspicion will hit Zaealix, since right now as long as they don't get crossclaimed they're basically towncore. This kind of blatant accusation is a bit too bold for half the cult to stake on. After a culting happens, that's a liability, and it's basically just wine whether we took the obvious target or not.

I'm somewhat expecting him to be tomorrow's vote, but I could be wrong there.
 
Thoughts on Nictis planning on being dead and what that means for cult? At the very least it looks like culting Nictis is off the table.
 
I'm half-tempted to run the argument that cult wouldn't dare run that kind of gambit, and we should take it as given that Nictis is town and hunt elsewhere for now. But I recognize that I really should be asleep, and so shouldn't be making that kind of gambit.

If Nictis is dead, we clearly can't cult them, but it doesn't change all that much for us.
 
Some good news. Town actions that involve querying an oracle about a player count as visiting a player. Nictis missed that in their instructions, and until now I'd thought otherwise, so there might be some false hits in there.

... probably not enough amidst the 25-50% false positive rate they're left with after Nictis clears two oracles from consideration with their flip, depending on if always-lies got ruled out or not.
 
... and going to sleep now, before I accidentally post one of these in the main thread.
 
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