Ralson said:
Manticore having a big advantage in electronics is an ironclad rule of the setting. It is never not true.
Sure, but to what degree varies a lot.
The difference between crappy start-war Haven electronics and start-war Manticore is significant, but not decisive. That gap then shrinks about a third during the course of the first war, until Ghost Rider shows up and opens it up, at which point they're able to do stuff like completely spoof Haven on how many SDs they're fighting (which actually happens). Then the gap shrinks again as Erewhon helps out Haven.
Your "Pretend its 1905" argument is missing the point a little, but I'll play ball.
Ahh, I think it's pretty center if we're talking to how they compare in the early stuff.
When I said "Solaria's largest fleet in history would lose to Manticore alone," my point was never "Manticore alone would trounce the League in 1905."
But then... WHY did you keep objecting when I pointed out that in the early years, Solarian could've definitely beaten any 1905 power and thus they were right to be worried about them? .. N/M, focusing on the now.
Gaaah, were we talking past each other that badly in both directions?
And we know what Manticore does to its own mass in ships.
Back
then? They win but take losses and damage.
I'd just like to point out, not as a gotcha but just for the record, that you're claiming Manticore, prewar and pre-wank, would capture more ships than they'd irrevocably lose.
Yep, in this fight. I do want to establish I have always agreed on the 'Manticore is better in many respect,' and acknowledging their competence edge. But it'd take long enough to fix all the damage those ships had taken- I mean, most of the surrendered ones would be damaged/crippled, and they're out of date enough, that they wouldn't be up to spec and even if they were it'd take a lot of resources and a good amount of time to use them at all (and since they're damaged, you'd have to refit them tech wise to bring them online at all, since Manticore doesn't have Solarian parts).
While a Raging Justice 2 with, say, 600-800 ships could be launched and arrived before they've fixed up their own wall, and would have to fight off RJ 2 with 150-200 Wallers rather than 300. And on the higher end of that, or if they push and get up to, say, 250, it's going to include non-upgraded Solarian ships and damaged craft and such.
Meaning they'd take a lot heavier damage the second time out. And Solaria would be in position to do it again. And again...
Here's my actual point: In order for things to work, Solaria needs to be able to crush any realistic alliance of powers combined. I think it's safe to say Grayson + Anderman + Erewhon + Manticore + Haven is a realistic alliance since it fucking happened in the books.
Ah, it's a realistic alliance at *that* point, in 1922, but the situation has changed very significantly in that time. Most significantly, Grayson becoming a power at all, and Haven has gone through two different governments.
Keep in mind, in 1905, Erewhon is 12 SDs of Solarian make. So, basically, they aren't going to account for much. Grayson can contribute zero Wallers. Andermandi could add a fair about, but still only double digits, and behind Manticore, if pretty good.
And Haven, in 1905? The Legislaturists? I think that's pretty implausible, and far more likely they'd strike a deal with Solaria to provide local support, don't you think? They have their economic problems, Manticore hates them for royal assassination reasons and because they've already started incidents in that direction *very* recently, and an alliance against Solaria doesn't seem like it'd fix their problems. Heck, wouldn't it be much easier to declare alliance with Solaria after 'Raging Justice 1905 edition' fails and then strike while the Manticorian fleet is wounded? They can get money without taking on a giant beast this way.
In 1905, I think the best alliance you're going to get is Anderman + Manticore... and that only if the Andermandi think they can win because they're all about realpolitik. If they don't think Manticore is going to win, then the smart move is to side with the league and gobble up the assets Manticore left behind. In 1922, siding with Manticore also means siding with Grayson, and Grayson is called out as the third strongest navy in the second behind Haven and Manticore, so it's hitching their wagon to two major powers, as opposed to one in '05.
When Manticore has SD(P)s up the yin-yang, realpolitik says, 'join them.' When they're merely incrementally better and looking to get in an
attrition war with Solaria, and don't have their religious mass spawn-point of neobarb ships... well, wouldn't you want to keep your distance, even if you do think they're superior?
Manticore could have built up their fleet for the war. That 307 ship figure could have ballooned to 500+. Considering Grayson could afford 200+, when Manticore is so much richer, 500 is probably a lowball. Now they'd handily outmass the fleet the SLN sent them. They'd eat 'em up.
Haven could have built up, too. Their 800+ capships-including-battleships could have turned into 800+ capships-for-realsies. Haven's ships aren't as good as Manticore's but they're not museum pieces either.
What's Anderman's fleet? 300 capships? I don't fucking know. Let's say 400 since they could build up. Why the fuck not.
Now it's 2,000 ships vs ~1,700 bigger, better, newer ships with better crews, better led, with fewer obligations. Solaria would lose even if they played it smart. With the actual leadership they actually have, they'd lose hard, and Manticore-And-Friends would end up with more ships than they started with.
Ah, yes, they could do that...
if they had time. But getting those numbers up takes a couple years, and Solaria could send fleets of Raging Justice+ sizes every 4 months, for a long long time, before they started to feel it. And due to their reserve, they don't need build times to replace those. They can't activate the full reserve but they can activate
And that still relies a lot on the 'and friends' bit. Any on their own, I think we can agree is pretty screwed?
(Andermandi is supposed to be smaller than Grayson- not actively at war and all, but I don't think much smaller)
Oh, wait, that's still more than Solaria. Solaria has 2,000. Theirs aren't as good as Grayson's, even ignoring the supertech aspect. They're undersized museum pieces designed centuries ago.
They're undersized and old, but even undersized for SDs, they're the same size as the DNs that make up 1/3rd of Manticore's 1905 wall, even significantly bigger than some DNs, and Manticore has some designs that are a few centuries old too. The Ad Astra was first designed in the *1600s*, and it stayed in service until 1913- meaning they have 300 year old ships in service for the first 8 years of the Haven war.
Even the best of the modern Manticore DNs actually have less Graser armament from the wiki (which I'm using because, well, all we've got). 24 grasers on the Bellerophon class, a modern Manticore DN, vs 26 on the Scientist class.
So if they went broadside to broadside, with energy weapons where ECM doesn't matter too much... the Scientist class would have an edge over a good chunk of Manticore's wall in firepower.
So yea, Solaria has not properly big/modern ships, but at this point, the difference is small enough that Manticore has a lot of ships that are not actually any stronger. It's an edge to Manticore, especially with their full sized SDs, but at this point it's not laughable, it's still dangerous ships just a bit below par next to a good chunk of what the Manties field.
If you scale up from Grayson in that way, you get a peacetime fleet of about 300,000 Superdreadnoughts.
I think they have trouble finding stuff for *2,000* to do!
But it's not just MDMs+Pods. Their "the same but better" advantages are quite sufficient.
