10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
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Mass blackouts in California?
2000–2001 California electricity crisis - Wikipedia
If we want grid upgrades, we better get our plan in place for that.
Fate of the World: A Climate Change Quest
- Thread starter mouli
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- Original
If we want grid upgrades, we better get our plan in place for that.
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
This came up in a Discord chat, where @huhYeahGoodPoint suggested typing it up and putting it in thread. So, here we are:
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Shit Be Fucked: Frequently Asked Questions About The Federal Procurement Process
Q: With full hindsight, I think our best bet for stopping climate change is technological acceleration. Even if we don't take the Privatization option, can't we shower schematics onto the market for great job gain?
A: Well, this option is specifically for setting up a federal contract process/bid pipeline. The US government traditionally doesn't dump a whole bunch of open source documents and just say YOLO -- this is probably going to be more like the NASA or defense contractor bid pipeline.
Q: Is that bad?
A: Kinda. On one hand, here is forty pages from NASA's inspector general talking about how NASA's IP transfer process is fucked. The privatization process will core out institutional knowledge and talent from the Department of Defense -- that may be outside the scope of what @mouli wants to examine, but in general the way it works is that the IP is transferred to a specific company that tries to commercialize the technology.
It's not throwing schematics at small business and hoping they do something cool we didn't think of -- it's more going to the Boeings and Raytheons, or whatever company has the legal and contractual knowledge to navigate the bid process.
It's good pork, and this process is a big part of what turned Virginia blue in 2008 -- federal money and a contractor pool causing an economic boom in northern Virginia, leading to lots of educated workers moving to that area.
Q: Isn't this good? We want to create jobs.
A: The jobs we would create through privatization aren't well distributed, unfortunately. We may accelerate the flipping of Virginia, but in order for Gore to win we need to flip Ohio from the Kerry map (which is probably about as good as we can do.) The companies likely to bid on blue-sky IP transfers are going to be small two-person SBIR-equivalent shops, which shores up our political position in the California, New York and New England tech clusters and doesn't help Da Big Boss win re-election.
If we open source our patents and IP portfolio, we would essentially be making the bet that we could flip VA and maybe NC four years early, but we're not doing anything to shore up our position in OH.
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The sense I get is that it's going to be a dice roll, but one we can influence.
"Fuck the Saudis very specifically, we're going to whack the Taliban in Afghanistan and get off Saudi oil by 2020" is a viable political position to take, if Da Big Boss can rally our position around it.
- Location
- California
Okay, so we have an option, but is there an exit strategy with 2020 No Oil?
Actually, which of the Superfund sites do we want to start with? I figure we can take any two of the minor Decon sites( barring the Southwest and the Rockies), but what of the major sites?
Actually, which of the Superfund sites do we want to start with? I figure we can take any two of the minor Decon sites( barring the Southwest and the Rockies), but what of the major sites?
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Plan Fuck Enron, Specifically
-Superfund
--[X] Portland Harbor - 3 Dice, 30 Budget
--[X] Minor Site Decon
----[X] Rust Belt: 3 Dice, 15 Budget
-Education
--[X] Publicize Your Work - 1 Die, 10 Budget
-Energy/Environmental (2 free)
--[X] Biofuel Subsidy Network: 4 Dice, 20 Budget
--[X] Solar and Wind Subsidies: 2 Dice, 10 Budget
--[X] Grid Overhauls: Stage I (Assessments): 3 Dice (2 free), 10 Budget
-Research (2 free)
--[X] Subsidize Engine Efficiency R&D - 3 Dice (2 free) , 5 Budget
-Political (3 free)
--[X] Outreach - Energy
--[X] Outreach - Justice
--[X] Schmoozing - Congress
Let's start here.
Our strategy for the near term is to tackle electricity generation, while also making progress on vehicle emissions.
As such, the short term, we partner with Energy and Justice to start audits into Enron's price manipulation on California's grid, and we take Publicize our Work to make sure that when we uncover a whole lot of price manipulation leading to blackouts in California, we create a groundswell for federalizing the power grid in the West, and we are talking with Congress to make sure that when grid modernizations happen, the green mandate means that we have a say in how those resources are allocated.
To that end, we focus on solar and wind subsidies -- big wind turbines and biofuels to keep the Corn Belt happy, research grants in Michigan to hold the suburbs there and boost the auto industry, and these are small, easy wins that are magnified because we're publicizing our work. We focus on the big visible Superfund site and assign enough dice to get it done with fairly average rolls, because we're focused on building the profile of our agency before we're completely eclipsed.
We have two more turns before either the towers fall or the FBI stops 9/11. Next turn, I think, we'll want to start focusing on DoD, State and Congress for our political actions and maybe pick a long-term focus -- either PV or decarbonizing transport -- but I think we will see the most success if we pick one and focus on it.
-Superfund
--[X] Portland Harbor - 3 Dice, 30 Budget
--[X] Minor Site Decon
----[X] Rust Belt: 3 Dice, 15 Budget
-Education
--[X] Publicize Your Work - 1 Die, 10 Budget
-Energy/Environmental (2 free)
--[X] Biofuel Subsidy Network: 4 Dice, 20 Budget
--[X] Solar and Wind Subsidies: 2 Dice, 10 Budget
--[X] Grid Overhauls: Stage I (Assessments): 3 Dice (2 free), 10 Budget
-Research (2 free)
--[X] Subsidize Engine Efficiency R&D - 3 Dice (2 free) , 5 Budget
-Political (3 free)
--[X] Outreach - Energy
--[X] Outreach - Justice
--[X] Schmoozing - Congress
Let's start here.
Our strategy for the near term is to tackle electricity generation, while also making progress on vehicle emissions.
As such, the short term, we partner with Energy and Justice to start audits into Enron's price manipulation on California's grid, and we take Publicize our Work to make sure that when we uncover a whole lot of price manipulation leading to blackouts in California, we create a groundswell for federalizing the power grid in the West, and we are talking with Congress to make sure that when grid modernizations happen, the green mandate means that we have a say in how those resources are allocated.
To that end, we focus on solar and wind subsidies -- big wind turbines and biofuels to keep the Corn Belt happy, research grants in Michigan to hold the suburbs there and boost the auto industry, and these are small, easy wins that are magnified because we're publicizing our work. We focus on the big visible Superfund site and assign enough dice to get it done with fairly average rolls, because we're focused on building the profile of our agency before we're completely eclipsed.
We have two more turns before either the towers fall or the FBI stops 9/11. Next turn, I think, we'll want to start focusing on DoD, State and Congress for our political actions and maybe pick a long-term focus -- either PV or decarbonizing transport -- but I think we will see the most success if we pick one and focus on it.
- Location
- California
[X] Plan Fuck Enron, Specifically
-[X] Superfund
--[X] Portland Harbor - 3 Dice, 30 Budget
--[X] Minor Site Decon
----[X] Rust Belt: 3 Dice, 15 Budget
-[X] Education
--[X] Publicize Your Work - 1 Die, 10 Budget
-[X] Energy/Environmental (2 free)
--[X] Biofuel Subsidy Network: 4 Dice, 20 Budget
--[X] Solar and Wind Subsidies: 2 Dice, 10 Budget
--[X] Grid Overhauls: Stage I (Assessments): 3 Dice (2 free), 10 Budget
-[X] Research (2 free)
--[X] Subsidize Engine Efficiency R&D - 3 Dice (2 free) , 5 Budget
-Political (3 free)
--[X] Outreach - Energy
--[X] Outreach - Justice
--[X] Schmoozing - Congress
I feel like reviewing our part of education might be safer, but it sounds like a plan until we figure out something for our cars and planes.
-[X] Superfund
--[X] Portland Harbor - 3 Dice, 30 Budget
--[X] Minor Site Decon
----[X] Rust Belt: 3 Dice, 15 Budget
-[X] Education
--[X] Publicize Your Work - 1 Die, 10 Budget
-[X] Energy/Environmental (2 free)
--[X] Biofuel Subsidy Network: 4 Dice, 20 Budget
--[X] Solar and Wind Subsidies: 2 Dice, 10 Budget
--[X] Grid Overhauls: Stage I (Assessments): 3 Dice (2 free), 10 Budget
-[X] Research (2 free)
--[X] Subsidize Engine Efficiency R&D - 3 Dice (2 free) , 5 Budget
-Political (3 free)
--[X] Outreach - Energy
--[X] Outreach - Justice
--[X] Schmoozing - Congress
I feel like reviewing our part of education might be safer, but it sounds like a plan until we figure out something for our cars and planes.
- Location
- Minnesota
This plan uses more dice than we actually have. 6/3 clean up and 9/5 Energy/Environmental.
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- Location
- California
You sure, I thought it was under budget of 100 at 95? Give me a minute.
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- Minnesota
We are limited both by budget and by number of dice. Getting additional dice in the regular categories takes admin dice. See:
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- Location
- California
First thing, I noticed as I reviewed the plan is that we can't Outreach to the Justice Department( In fact, we may want to not do this at this stage). We would have to schooze the Justice department, but that may have to wait until we are at the
part of the Superfund cleanup. Also, Schmoozing the Justice department while a vocal minority calls Gore an "illegitimate," president may be a bad move.
It's nuclear. Too hot for politics. We need to do a multi-year to multi-decade campaign sort of like irl, or until the EPA proves itself with alt-fuels.
Edit:
Yikes. Time to dice slash.
Edit2:
[X] Plan F- The Exxon Edit
-[X] Superfund
--[X] Portland Harbor - 3 Dice, 30 Budget
--[X] Minor Site Decon
----[X] Rust Belt: 1 Dice, 5 Budget
-[X] Education
--[X] Publicize Your Work - 1 Die, 10 Budget
-[X] Energy/Environmental (2 Plus)
--[X] Biofuel Subsidy Network: 3 Dice, 15 Budget
--[X] Solar and Wind Subsidies: 1 Dice, 10 Budget
--[X] Grid Overhauls: Stage I (Assessments): 1 Dice, 10 Budget
-[X] Research (2 Plus)
--[X] Subsidize Engine Efficiency R&D - 3 Dice , 15 Budget
-[X] Political (3 free)
--[X] Request more Staff - 5 Budget
---[X] Cleanup
--[X] Outreach - Energy
--[X] Schmoozing - Congress
Alright, slashed dice on Rust Belt, but we still get to start here. Also, gut dice to solar and wind subsidy as 2 dice here is more expensive then 3 dice to the biofuel subsidy; it's a choice between campaign promise and solar. The last dice in the Energy/Environmental section goes to Gird Overhauls, and that should synergies with the Outreach action.
We have a ton of dice for Research and Development, but we're focusing on car efficiency. Hopefully, to get car hybrids in development, so new jobs get produce in the American Automotive Industry. Also, because completion here is out of 100 which is more rapidly obtainable then
. Finally, there's the request, outreach, and schmoozing with Congress.
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It was me who was asking the questions about IP. I am of the opinion that we should A. Do a fuckton of research and B. Give away all of our discoveries either for free or for incredibly cheap in the hopes that doing so allows for our actions to be magnified by other people/organizations using our tech on their own projects, including ones outside the US where we wouldn't have influence otherwise.
What are peoples thoughts on this strategy?
What are peoples thoughts on this strategy?
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- Location
- California
We got to be careful with what we give away. Say we give away something which could help, but the company or start-up turns around and does nothing. Worst, it gets bought out, company gets liquidated, and then this tech disappears into the vaults of another company. When and if we release this tech, then we got to have strong PR beforehand, so people know what it is the EPA has.
Well that's the whole point of releasing it to everyone either open source or incredibly cheaply, to make sure that even if one company doesn't do anything with it, someone else will.
- Location
- California
I didn't phrase that right. What I meant was, say we give out Example Information A, and we release it at the same time as a major press conference. Now, people know, through the conference, about Info A, so we have people, companies and organizations ready to talk. This is a good outcome and what we want.
What would be bad is say, those the EPA deals with either (1) does nothing with A, (2) or creates a product but hordes the patent to said product. In the first case, we're stuck having to go the extra mile which ties up resources in other places. In the second scenario, we might have to engineer a better product because a company holds a patent, and this business actively chooses to hold a monopoly on a specific car engine or chemical formula. In other words, we could be stuck with an Insulin Situation.
The chemical process to produce insulin was once a simple process. The scientist who made basically put it up for peanuts, so essentially everyone could purchase it's use. Now, the price of insulin is hilariously, tragically inflated in certain nations.
Hmmmm, yeah, that may be an issue, although I would argue that it's worth the risk because its better then just holding on to everything and trying to do everything ourselves. Could this issue be avoided by just going full open source? Can't monopolize a patent if there's no patent to monopolize after all.
That runs into the political issues of making it open source. Making it full stop open source, available to anyone even foreign nations and companies is almost certainly a nonstarter. Even just limiting the discoveries to American companies would still likely take a lot of political will. Politicians will probably want something in return for the investment into making these new advancements. Weather these returns are for them personally, their personal constituents, or the government as a whole is largely irrelevant but they will want something. Not to mention the companies that have the most to gain from said advancements (or the most to lose) will certainly lobby for it to be patented so they can get exclusive or near exclusive access.
This is not to say it is not possible or even a bad idea but it would require the EPA to throw a lot of weight around and expend a lot of political capital to make it happen. Political capital we may not have or may be best used somewhere else.
10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
- Location
- Present
Actually, we're in the year 2000.
This is around the time of the nuclear renaissance that never really happened. Shale gas is not a thing yet, fossil fuels are being discouraged.
In reality, the nuclear renaissance died a quiet death because it got crushed between the twin hammers of Shale Gas and Fukushima (as well as severe problems with getting new reactors fielded on shedule). If we manage to get things going, we might redeem it.
I see. In that case we definitely need to take the schmoozing corporations action, so we can start figuring out who in the private sector is worth working with.
[X] Plan F- The Exxon Edit
- Location
- California
Really? What more info do you have?
- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
[X] Plan F- The Exxon Edit
What about the decline in coal production and the increase in the use of natural gas? We are an environmental agency, emissions are our goal, but not our activity, which is the easiest to sell to society in aggregate, for example, as a fight for clean water and nature, or for the fight against cancer and lung diseases.
Also in this plan, the issue of the growth of the automotive industry on hybrids has already been discussed. Biofuels are likely to appeal to agro-industrial holdings and farms.
In addition, we have the problem of the world, of course, American publications and works will be influenced and all that, but in general, the issue of combating global warming is impossible without Europe, even if China is still catching up with developed countries for 2000, there are enough emissions in it.
Finally, there is no point in nuclear energy because of the public distrust, which is not obtained for nothing. The categorical failure of the solar panel is a lack of energy. A categorical failure of biofuels is a fire. The categorical failure of the nuclear power plant - hundreds of thousands of people in the zone of radioactive destruction. Capital investments in reactors, unless you are an orc, do not pay off in a short time, unlike even wind turbines and other things.
What about the decline in coal production and the increase in the use of natural gas? We are an environmental agency, emissions are our goal, but not our activity, which is the easiest to sell to society in aggregate, for example, as a fight for clean water and nature, or for the fight against cancer and lung diseases.
Also in this plan, the issue of the growth of the automotive industry on hybrids has already been discussed. Biofuels are likely to appeal to agro-industrial holdings and farms.
In addition, we have the problem of the world, of course, American publications and works will be influenced and all that, but in general, the issue of combating global warming is impossible without Europe, even if China is still catching up with developed countries for 2000, there are enough emissions in it.
Finally, there is no point in nuclear energy because of the public distrust, which is not obtained for nothing. The categorical failure of the solar panel is a lack of energy. A categorical failure of biofuels is a fire. The categorical failure of the nuclear power plant - hundreds of thousands of people in the zone of radioactive destruction. Capital investments in reactors, unless you are an orc, do not pay off in a short time, unlike even wind turbines and other things.