- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Amongst Us Mafia
- Thread starter LostDeviljho
- Start date
- Mafia
-
- Tags
- mafia
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Barring a surprisingly late report from @Shadell, the current spread of reports has some implications.
We have six claimed locations. Nobody has announced seeing The Corpse Of Nictis.
Things pan out like so:
AlphaDelta and Scia met.
Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo met. (If @InterstellarHobo does not check in, either Novus Ordo Mundi is scum, or IH is; either Novus killed IH, or IH is ghosting us. If Shadell never checks in, IH is definitely scum or the team is exactly Novus Ordo Mundi and Shadell.)
Myself, QTesseract, Mesonoxian, and Wiadi each claim No Meeting.
The important takeaways here are;
Nobody successfully visited General, unless the scum kill happened there in which case scum are lying about who they met. (because nobody reported Nictis's body)
The scum team is one of; exactly AlphaDelta and Scia, exactly Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo, or one from myself, QTesseract, Meso, Wiadi, and Any One Other Player.
This assumes Shadell never checks in from being dead; technically, Shadell could in this scenario have simply decided to ghost, and be scum over the obligate [Myself, QTesseract, Meso, Wiadi] option.
While I am still ticked as hell about Alpha's play last night... I don't believe in a team of AlphaDelta/Scia (though it is strictly possible), and I don't really buy Novus/IH as a likely scum team. This means that it is very likely there's a scum in QT, Meso, Wiadi, or, from a perspective not mine, me. Obviously I know my alignment but I'm not gonna lie about objective proof here and pretend I couldn't be scum from current info.
Given that...
[X] Vote Mesonoxian
Alpha is still my favorite for second scum, if I'm honest, buuut I think it may be most productive to demand Novus Ordo Mundi IH revisit wherever they were. I'd like to demand Scia and Alpha do the same, but whether or not one is scum, their location of last night was already outed, so a hall kill wouldn't be incriminating of the other. Lynching among the singletons, however, I think gives scum greater difficulty in avoiding mechanical scrutiny, in addition to it being, in my opinion, better than coin flip odds to lynch in [Meso, QTesseract, Wiadi] for mechanical reasons.
Furthermore, Meso is the third highest poster yet a void in my reads, and I've dismissed multiple scummy plays from him as essentially 'I think Meso is bad enough to do that as town', which, even aside potential insult, isn't a great reason to dismiss scummy play, actually.
Let's not lollygag away the day. I'd particularly like @QTesseract's opinions on some of my mechanics thoughts (in spite of him being in my mechanical Likely Scum zone, I'm town reading him pretty firmly), and I'd like more out of Wiadi (who I have little read on). I'd also like everyone to start taking stances early as to whether my Alpha vote logic or my Meso vote logic is stronger, so we don't do this all in the last twelve hours. A-fucking-gain.
We have six claimed locations. Nobody has announced seeing The Corpse Of Nictis.
Things pan out like so:
AlphaDelta and Scia met.
Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo met. (If @InterstellarHobo does not check in, either Novus Ordo Mundi is scum, or IH is; either Novus killed IH, or IH is ghosting us. If Shadell never checks in, IH is definitely scum or the team is exactly Novus Ordo Mundi and Shadell.)
Myself, QTesseract, Mesonoxian, and Wiadi each claim No Meeting.
The important takeaways here are;
Nobody successfully visited General, unless the scum kill happened there in which case scum are lying about who they met. (because nobody reported Nictis's body)
The scum team is one of; exactly AlphaDelta and Scia, exactly Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo, or one from myself, QTesseract, Meso, Wiadi, and Any One Other Player.
This assumes Shadell never checks in from being dead; technically, Shadell could in this scenario have simply decided to ghost, and be scum over the obligate [Myself, QTesseract, Meso, Wiadi] option.
While I am still ticked as hell about Alpha's play last night... I don't believe in a team of AlphaDelta/Scia (though it is strictly possible), and I don't really buy Novus/IH as a likely scum team. This means that it is very likely there's a scum in QT, Meso, Wiadi, or, from a perspective not mine, me. Obviously I know my alignment but I'm not gonna lie about objective proof here and pretend I couldn't be scum from current info.
Given that...
[X] Vote Mesonoxian
Alpha is still my favorite for second scum, if I'm honest, buuut I think it may be most productive to demand Novus Ordo Mundi IH revisit wherever they were. I'd like to demand Scia and Alpha do the same, but whether or not one is scum, their location of last night was already outed, so a hall kill wouldn't be incriminating of the other. Lynching among the singletons, however, I think gives scum greater difficulty in avoiding mechanical scrutiny, in addition to it being, in my opinion, better than coin flip odds to lynch in [Meso, QTesseract, Wiadi] for mechanical reasons.
Furthermore, Meso is the third highest poster yet a void in my reads, and I've dismissed multiple scummy plays from him as essentially 'I think Meso is bad enough to do that as town', which, even aside potential insult, isn't a great reason to dismiss scummy play, actually.
Let's not lollygag away the day. I'd particularly like @QTesseract's opinions on some of my mechanics thoughts (in spite of him being in my mechanical Likely Scum zone, I'm town reading him pretty firmly), and I'd like more out of Wiadi (who I have little read on). I'd also like everyone to start taking stances early as to whether my Alpha vote logic or my Meso vote logic is stronger, so we don't do this all in the last twelve hours. A-fucking-gain.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
I'm still alive, I just slept for 12 hours.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Is your night task (do not name which task) result claim the same as Novus Ord Mundi, ie you met them and no other in the night?
Just to check that we don't have a discrepancy there.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Oh, and the most actionable takeaway in end-game scenarios is that we cannot have any of the following scum teams; Alpha/Novus, Alpha/IH, Scia/Novus, or Scia/IH. Any one of those four can be scum, yes, but those combinations cannot be scum as they require a townie to lie somewhere.
This is part of why I'd prefer to lynch in the pool of [me, Meso, Wiadi, QTesseract], because that set is wildcards who could be scum with literally anyone, where we have some mechanical info on the others.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
I think we can soft link AlphaDelta and Scia in at least one direction, even if Shadell shows up.
In a hypothetical where Scia is town and AlphaDelta is scum, we have gained almost as much information as if we vote-killed Scia, and AlphaDelta has dropped a kill. The fact we had sincere discussion with intent to kill (and a very last minute swap) means we can analyze the votes more or less as though the Scia kill went through. Since there's no flip on votekill, we don't lose any information from the Scia kill failing to go through.
I think this only makes sense from a Scum AD perspective if AD is saving their teammate.
In a hypothetical where Scia is town and AlphaDelta is scum, we have gained almost as much information as if we vote-killed Scia, and AlphaDelta has dropped a kill. The fact we had sincere discussion with intent to kill (and a very last minute swap) means we can analyze the votes more or less as though the Scia kill went through. Since there's no flip on votekill, we don't lose any information from the Scia kill failing to go through.
I think this only makes sense from a Scum AD perspective if AD is saving their teammate.
I would argue that the problem with that is that if we are both scum, it basically ties is so close together that it mostly solves the game for the crew.
And so it feels like a to risky move for scum normally I would argue? Especially with the lack of powers on single scum
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Since we know for a fact that this corpse (a) exists and (b) has a known location (General), I'm pretty sure it's correct for anyone who found it not to say so, so I don't think we can conclude much from this.
Lack of powers on single Scum is exactly why I could potentially see this move happening. We're still early in the game here; I would not be shocked if Scum made the analysis of "we are more likely to be able to spin this tomorrow than we are to win from this point at half strength." Especially with the lack of flips to obfuscate things.
- Location
- Central Standard Time
[X] Vote Mesonoxian
From my point of view:
Scia: Probable clear. +.8
IH: Slight lean scum. -0.01
Terra: Slight lean town. +0.01
Wiadi: Lean scum. -0.3
QT: Slight lean scum. -0.02
Novus: Slight lean town. +0.1
Meso: Slight lean scum. -0.03
I'd prefer to vote Wiadi right now, but I think there's a better chance of getting weight on Meso.
Gambiting like this isn't something that I'd expect from myself/Scia, though. Maybe from Pawn or Terra, though.
From my point of view:
Scia: Probable clear. +.8
IH: Slight lean scum. -0.01
Terra: Slight lean town. +0.01
Wiadi: Lean scum. -0.3
QT: Slight lean scum. -0.02
Novus: Slight lean town. +0.1
Meso: Slight lean scum. -0.03
I concur with this.
I'd prefer to vote Wiadi right now, but I think there's a better chance of getting weight on Meso.
Winning from half strength is tedious, but probably doable. Just need hallway kills, and good day play.
Gambiting like this isn't something that I'd expect from myself/Scia, though. Maybe from Pawn or Terra, though.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
Sorry, can you explain this?
I agree with Terra's reasoning that Scia is not a good target when we have a pool of four that almost certainly has 1+ scum, but I don't see how this translates to a clear.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I'm crew. I didn't find the case against Scia compelling, but I also hoped to see if anybody else would break away to get some useful information instead of just spending another day shooting in the dark. If we had been below the minimum to eject somebody, I intended to vote with the largest wagon just so something happened. But I looked in a bit before eod and Scia was over the line. Then I went and did some stuff IRL and when I came back @AlphaDelta moved their vote to IH.
I can't think of a good reason to do that at the last minute or really believe a last minute gambit like that could accidentally be forgotten like that.
[X] vote AlphaDelta
I am not sure, but we have no other info too work off of.
I can't think of a good reason to do that at the last minute or really believe a last minute gambit like that could accidentally be forgotten like that.
[X] vote AlphaDelta
I am not sure, but we have no other info too work off of.
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
What do you think the purpose of the last minute swap might have been?
In particular, can you see any plausible purpose which isn't contingent on Scia being scum?
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
No, I figure it would only make sense if Scia is scum, too.
If not I think we're out of luck.
I'm crew, if AD is too, then we are almost certainly going to wind up with a misvote today, and either way we won't actually have any way of knowing whether that is the case to base future kills off of. We kind of have to hope that was a scum misplay, because if it is a town misplay, I think we're sunk.
- Location
- Central Standard Time
... Because I saw Terra online, making fast-paced posts? Because I came up with the idea when I made the post? Because I definitely haven't botched the execution of several gambits before?
And finally, it's driving discussion right now.
Well, just don't vote me, and the misvote chance goes down.
Anyway, I'm not certain that Terra's town, but on reflection, Terra's more towny than my prior evaluation.
I mean I know, I am town, I feel it likely that A is town, because I am not seeing a reason for why scum would vote that way .
A point to consider, if I where scum, it would have made more sense to create a second bandwagon away from me prior to the end of day, instead of the last minute save which seems kind of suspicious .
The question then arises, If no try for a second wagon apperead before, does it then not make sense that scum considers me dying okay as I am not scum?
I also consider AD less likely to be scum because if they are they did not use that to increase the amount of Kill, and B because I meet them during the night and so they could have killed me there (Unless of course they ambushed someone in the night phase)
A point to consider, if I where scum, it would have made more sense to create a second bandwagon away from me prior to the end of day, instead of the last minute save which seems kind of suspicious .
The question then arises, If no try for a second wagon apperead before, does it then not make sense that scum considers me dying okay as I am not scum?
I also consider AD less likely to be scum because if they are they did not use that to increase the amount of Kill, and B because I meet them during the night and so they could have killed me there (Unless of course they ambushed someone in the night phase)
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
The problem is that you are the only person who did anything in any way suspicious. If you aren't scum, we have literally nothing to go on other than another random vote.
I think we should probably be specific about where we were last night. We need more information, and catching someone out lying is one of the few avenues we have to get it.
- Location
- Central Standard Time
We have discussion today, and we have mechanical associations.
At this point, if I weren't already voting you, I'd add my vote to Terra.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Sorry, been distracted, I'm alive.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Completely blanked on night ending.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I did not visit general and I did not meet anyone.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
AlphaDelta and Scia met.
Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo
Given I'm alive, either one pair is a scum team here or there is at most 1 scum member between these 4 (alternatively scum is trying to get towncore status by skipping a kill.)
Notably, I don't think we know if ambushes inform scum before they have to do the second round of killing (The rules specify informed at the start of day, but no word on updates), which makes it a bit hard to read the value here.
My gut is scum pulls reactor again tonight, with another free targeted kill, though that also leaves room to start analyzing the kill choice.
Speaking of which, the ambush on Nemo is interesting. Specifically, an ambush requires accurately calling out who plans to visit where. In this case, the clear presumption should be general.
So, who'd guess Nemo visits general confidently enough to risk the ambush?
Novus Ordo Mundi and InterstellarHobo
Given I'm alive, either one pair is a scum team here or there is at most 1 scum member between these 4 (alternatively scum is trying to get towncore status by skipping a kill.)
Notably, I don't think we know if ambushes inform scum before they have to do the second round of killing (The rules specify informed at the start of day, but no word on updates), which makes it a bit hard to read the value here.
My gut is scum pulls reactor again tonight, with another free targeted kill, though that also leaves room to start analyzing the kill choice.
Speaking of which, the ambush on Nemo is interesting. Specifically, an ambush requires accurately calling out who plans to visit where. In this case, the clear presumption should be general.
So, who'd guess Nemo visits general confidently enough to risk the ambush?
- Pronouns
- She/Her
At the moment, I'm somewhat townreading Scia as well. Literally nothing to go on this game, but:
This strikes me as incredibly towny logic. I don't think it's good logic, but that kind of read attempt is intrinsically more open to town than scum.
This strikes me as incredibly towny logic. I don't think it's good logic, but that kind of read attempt is intrinsically more open to town than scum.
- Location
- The Great Beyond
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
It's objectively correct, which, with Shadell having now reported in, makes all people claiming to have not seen it suspect, all now five of us.
It's objectively correct because the reason to hide which location you've visited is to avoid revealing qualifications to help scum hall kill you.
However, general does not require qualifications, so if someone went to general and saw Nictis they should confirm so we can narrow the possibility space in a town positive way.
Particularly, this is true since we can't have the one-offs reveal it.
The only reason to not reveal it would be if the people hiding Nictis's corpse being spotted met other people (ie, the Novus Ordo Mundi and IH pair, in this case), but if any of the one offs saw it, they should say so.
Make us mis-yeet scia if we take out AlphaDelta. This kind of linking is incredibly useful for scum, even more so in a game with no flips such that we can't even be sure whether or not Alpha *is* scum just from killing him.
Noted. Unfortunately, a Shadell Alive scenario while positive in terms of dragging out the game/giving us more shots to catch scum as a result, it does remove the guarantee against specific scum-pairs, though it still leaves it likely we have at least one scum among the one-offs, it's not remotely guaranteed.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
...yeah, okay, no.
[X] Vote Mesonoxian
Scum can just...not lie here, is the thing. So I'd really rather not feed them a bunch of free info.
Hm, good catch. @LostDeviljho can you confirm when Scum find out about Ambush results?
Uh...is it though? The rolecards are public.
It doesn't actually narrow the possibility space at all since, as discussed yesterday, we know Nictis is 100% guaranteed dead. So like...all revealing a visit to General would do is give Scum more information for shaping their own claims & planning possible Ambushes. Yes, it doesn't directly reveal anything about qualifications, but it's still information that Scum can analyze and the benefit to Town is literally nil. What are you expecting us to gain from this?