Doesn't Dumbledore explicitly think Divination is BS and keeps Trelawney around solely to keep her safe from the Death Eaters?
No, he just thinks Trelawney is really bad at divination outside of some rare prophecies (and keeps her around probably both to keep her safe and get any further prophecies).

He notes that good Seers are very rare, which means he aknowledged divination is a thing. He just dosent have a good teacher for it (dubledores hiring decisions are often questionable it seems). Though with good seers being so rare, Trelawney may be the the best he could get.

Of course with talent being rare, how useful this is to teach as a broad class instead of just to the few students who have some is anyones guess.
 
Doesn't Dumbledore explicitly think Divination is BS and keeps Trelawney around solely to keep her safe from the Death Eaters?
Not quite; his initial issue with Trelawny specifically was that he didn't believe she actually had the gift until she suddenly recited a prophecy in front of him. After that Trelawny notes that he was considerably better disposed towards her, though she attributed it to her being favourably compared to Snape after his interruption (not knowing she'd just given a prophecy).

Meanwhile, Dumbledore's attitude to divination in general is (IIRC) that it's wooly and uncertain, and his attitude to prophecies specifically is that they're not ironclad, and if they come true it's because the people involved are naturally inclined to do what they state anyway (he even specifically notes that not all recorded prophecies have been fulfilled).
 
Or maybe just the Divination classes is not supposed to teach you how to foresee stuff, but rather about divinations.
Like irl Religious Studies teach you about different religions rather than make you a beliver.
 
Of course with talent being rare, how useful this is to teach as a broad class instead of just to the few students who have some is anyones guess.
Considering it's an elective, a case could be made that only the people who actually know they have the gift are supposed to apply - and it's not the administration's fault if some kids have misjudged their capabilities; indeed, having them smash their head against the wall and realize their self-evaluation of themselves is faulty in such a danger-free manner is positively nurturing compared to the average danger Hogwart students are put into on a daily basis.

Or one could go with the position that Dumbledore just has no idea how to run a school; being well-meaning, competent in your own field, a capable teacher, a passable schemer and a prodigy without peers doesn't necessarily translate to having a head for administration and logistics. Surely it doesn't require him to be an idiot or evil for him to just have no idea how to actually run a school? Plenty of peerless professional I know are unable to realize that their expertise in certain fields doesn't translate as well to other fields as they seem to think it does. This could easily be a case of that.

And let's not forget, of course, that in the Wizarding World's political environment, finding competent teachers who aren't also some form of bigoted racists that you don't want children to be exposed to might be hard. And yes, Snape, but the point of Snape is to make people hate that kind of thing by making it obvious, instead of the more subtle take (for a given value of subtle - less antagonistic would perhaps be a better way to put it) an actual political activist would take to corrupt impressionable kids. So, it might well be that Dumbledore has to put competence second to political leanings when picking teachers.

Basically, what I'm saying is this: regardless of the Doylist reasons why Hogwarts is the way it is, there are ways to have it make sense from a Watsonian perspective with only very limited changes. I think that the author of this fanfic made an excellent job of that so far.
 
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Or maybe just the Divination classes is not supposed to teach you how to foresee stuff, but rather about divinations.
Like irl Religious Studies teach you about different religions rather than make you a beliver.
At least some of the the stuff in divination is actively teaching you to predict the future- tea leaves, crystal balls, tarot, and so on- and it's never really clarified how much that stuff interacts with being a seer. Or how accurate and useful it is in general, or whether you even need any gift to do it; quite a bit of stuff predicted via those methods does come true, but because they're so vague it's impossible to say whether that's because the predictions were correct or it's just a coincidence.
 
Snape (if you weren't a slytherin), Peeves, the Stairs, and the other students were pretty much omnidirectional threats.
 
Harry was not an average student, and his life was filled with far more danger than the usual.
I'm well aware, that's why I said "average" and not "what Harry Potter went through". In no particular order:

The Forbidden Forest is filled to the brim with extremely dangerous creatures that would easily and happily kill a student, from Acromantula to the Centaurs who, let's not forget, specifically said that 15 year old Harry and Hermione were already "pretty much adults", when they had two more years of schooling let to go. If you want to persuade me that Harry, Hermione and Ron were the only three teenagers in a school with at least a few hundreds who ever felt that a place being named "Forbidden" meant it was ok to go there, you'll need to be very persuasive.

Lest we forget, "going into the Forbidden Forest" is considered an adequate punishment for kids in detention, even as young as 11. For why that's dangerous, see above.

Apparently, testing potentially lethal potions on a student's pet is considered a reasonable punishment as well. Discipline in general is very hazy at Hogwarts and not really implemented in a fashion that is conductive to the student's well-being, and there's apparently a lot of teacher's discretion involved.

The school sport regularly sees people sent to the infirmary, even during training (see: Neville's fall from his broom in his first lesson). But then, maybe dangerous sports can get a pass, so I'll accept that this doesn't count.

Students are allowed to roam the castle with potentially deadly weapons, which unavoidably leads to a lot of fighting in the corridors that ends with people sent to the infirmary - when they're lucky. Otherwise, being sealed in a locker for months or being sliced open and left bleeding to death is a danger, and there's no guarantees the parties responsible will be punished, or even identified.

Apparently, the administration saying to the students "you should stay away from this location or you'll suffer a very painful death" (and we shall not held responsible goes unspoken) is considered a reasonable way to open the year, since nobody complained when it happened. And, of course, hiding deadly plants, dangerous creatures and sanity stealing artifacts in unused corridors and classrooms is considered perfectly acceptable.

The rivalry between different portions of the school body is so high that traveling in group to avoid being ambushed is considered standard practice, and instead of looking for ways to minimize this, the whole school is structured around encouraging these divisions and partisanship, with blatant favoritism from all side of the teacher body that exacerbates the issue.

And one could go on, but the point is, these are things that every student in the school has to deal with, and they're all dangerous. Compared to that, having a student waste a few years figuring out that a teacher's discipline is not something they have the ability to take advantage of is positively tame, I feel.
 
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In canon all his 'made-up' predictions for divination homework ended up coming true in some way, but very few people ever do anything with the idea.
Yeah, Ron is very accurate with his "predictions", then again, so is Trelawney. Even outside of her "real prophecies" what ever she is talking about is more than likely to come true, but few people do anything with that either.
 
I mean there has to be a reason the class exists, maybe it legit works for some people.

Nah, it's absolutely possible that the class is entirely bogus and is kept on the curriculum because there was a seer advising some past Minister who wanted to promote divination as something more than "some people get random prophecies sometimes". Every time some headmaster gets a good look at the class, they realize that there is zero value in it, but they can't remove it because a lot of parents have very strong opinions on how it must be kept because they had to sit through it, and also tea leaves told them it would result in a disaster.

I mean, magical Britain is a pastiche of British culture. Which is to say, it's a horrible dysfunctional mess held together by tradition and stiff upper lip, and that can be seen in every aspect of the setting.

(This is basically why the epilogue is so disappointing for some people: we've seen that the world is thoroughly rotten, but the best ending Rowling could imagine is the return to the status quo, perhaps with less overt racism.)

Where it tends to break down is when the pastiche elements run into fantasy tropes. Asshole and incompetent teachers are to be expected in an old-timey boarding school like Hogwarts, but also the headmaster of such a school is likely to be a mid-level bureaucrat who's mostly concerned with meeting the budget, doesn't have that much power to change anything, and probably doesn't care. Instead, we have literally the most important and powerful wizard in the country (possibly the world) filling the position, and also he's established as wise and benevolent, so here we are.

All that said, this fic in particular changes the divination to be actually efective, and Trelawney comes across as competent rather than kooky, so it's mostly a moot point.
 
"At the end, to the left," Ron said, and it sounded as if there were a dozen Rons, all speaking in harmony. Then he seemed to deflate, almost, and Ron coughed again.
Now, is this an actual Prophecy, or is someone trying to manipulate Holly by messing with Ron's head?

If it is an actual Prophecy, I expect that it will not be as obvious as it seems at first glance. Maybe it will be about one of her duels?

I suspect this line is going to show up in the Graveyard, the question is if it's Holly going "Which way do I go?" and remembering it, or if it's someone else at the scene saying it and Holly's supposed to remember and go the other way to avoid it (At the end on the right),
 
Where it tends to break down is when the pastiche elements run into fantasy tropes. Asshole and incompetent teachers are to be expected in an old-timey boarding school like Hogwarts, but also the headmaster of such a school is likely to be a mid-level bureaucrat who's mostly concerned with meeting the budget, doesn't have that much power to change anything, and probably doesn't care.
This is what Smeltings is good for - because Muggle Britain would turn unruly students into ferrets if they could, but instead they have to settle for encouraging them to beat each other with sticks.
 
Yeah, Ron is very accurate with his "predictions", then again, so is Trelawney. Even outside of her "real prophecies" what ever she is talking about is more than likely to come true, but few people do anything with that either.

Trelawney is also laughably inaccurate with her predictions. Like, it's a in-universe running joke that she starts every first class off by doing death predictions of a student or ten. For maximum drama.

Nah, it's absolutely possible that the class is entirely bogus and is kept on the curriculum because there was a seer advising some past Minister who wanted to promote divination as something more than "some people get random prophecies sometimes". Every time some headmaster gets a good look at the class, they realize that there is zero value in it, but they can't remove it because a lot of parents have very strong opinions on how it must be kept because they had to sit through it, and also tea leaves told them it would result in a disaster.

I mean, magical Britain is a pastiche of British culture. Which is to say, it's a horrible dysfunctional mess held together by tradition and stiff upper lip, and that can be seen in every aspect of the setting.

I mean, the 5th book does have the centaur and the idea that non-prophetic divinations are real, they're just hard to interpret and way too large scale to be of much practical use. Seems pretty clear that Trelawney has a job primarily so Dumbledore would have her nearby if she does another prophecy. Gotta keep those resources to hand.
 
Nah, it's absolutely possible that the class is entirely bogus and is kept on the curriculum because there was a seer advising some past Minister who wanted to promote divination as something more than "some people get random prophecies sometimes". Every time some headmaster gets a good look at the class, they realize that there is zero value in it, but they can't remove it because a lot of parents have very strong opinions on how it must be kept because they had to sit through it, and also tea leaves told them it would result in a disaster.

I mean, magical Britain is a pastiche of British culture. Which is to say, it's a horrible dysfunctional mess held together by tradition and stiff upper lip, and that can be seen in every aspect of the setting.

(This is basically why the epilogue is so disappointing for some people: we've seen that the world is thoroughly rotten, but the best ending Rowling could imagine is the return to the status quo, perhaps with less overt racism.)

Where it tends to break down is when the pastiche elements run into fantasy tropes. Asshole and incompetent teachers are to be expected in an old-timey boarding school like Hogwarts, but also the headmaster of such a school is likely to be a mid-level bureaucrat who's mostly concerned with meeting the budget, doesn't have that much power to change anything, and probably doesn't care. Instead, we have literally the most important and powerful wizard in the country (possibly the world) filling the position, and also he's established as wise and benevolent, so here we are.

All that said, this fic in particular changes the divination to be actually efective, and Trelawney comes across as competent rather than kooky, so it's mostly a moot point.
Trelawney is also laughably inaccurate with her predictions. Like, it's a in-universe running joke that she starts every first class off by doing death predictions of a student or ten. For maximum drama.



I mean, the 5th book does have the centaur and the idea that non-prophetic divinations are real, they're just hard to interpret and way too large scale to be of much practical use. Seems pretty clear that Trelawney has a job primarily so Dumbledore would have her nearby if she does another prophecy. Gotta keep those resources to hand.
The books do suggest that divination as taught in the class is real, with the amount of stuff that gets predicted that comes true. They just don't show it to be particularly useful, as it tends to be almost impossible to interpret accurately until after the fact. Firenze backs this up to an extent too, as while he dismisses astrological divination as Trelawny teaches it he also establishes that centaurs can use it accurately (if with great difficulty), and he never says that other divination methods (cards, tea leaves, etc) don't work. Plus, there's always the possibility that he's simply wrong in claiming some human divination methods don't work.

Trelawny's definitely not a good teacher in canon, but there's enough evidence for me to say that it's a real subject.
 
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Year Four, Chapter Thirty Three
Year Four, Chapter Thirty Three

Holly walked back up to the platform, trying not to remember how Avery's father had screamed. How he'd died in agony, his own dark curse devouring him because had ordered it to. She felt her hand shake a little, and she felt like screaming. Why now, she despaired, of all times?

Then she stood facing Avery, and her hand stilled. Her heart beat faster, and she felt something touch her mind. A brief, subtle presence - Avery was hoping to do the same thing to her that she had done to Frederik and Cedric. His Legilimency was inelegant and amatuerish, so she thought that he had little experience with it - someone must have taught him this only recently.

Attempting to use it before the duel had started was a breach of the rules, but Holly was more interested in who had taught it to Avery. She carefully misdirected his probe, emptying her mind and leading him into false trails. Then she followed the probe back, slipping into Avery's mind and through his mediocre Occlumency.

She did not restrain herself to merely his instincts, instead rifling through his memories. She dashed through hazy half-recalled study sessions, waded through tears shed for his father, and avoided anything that looked like a broom cupboard until she found it.

Holly couldn't see faces, only a shadowy collection of figures. Avery knelt, his arm burning with pain, and something touched his mind. Something dark and something powerful. Something that was achingly familiar, as if Holly had known it all her life.

She knew his task, and she felt sick. He was being used as a kamikaze - an assassin who could succeed because he would not try to escape. He was an angry child, grieving for the loss of a strict but much-loved father, who had been turned into a weapon aimed at her.

Flitwick called for the duel to start, and Holly knew she had only one chance to save Avery from at least life in Azkaban. She fed him a false instinct, and she knew his own. She jabbed her wand forward, casting the fastest spell she knew - the disarming charm.

She'd fooled Avery into thinking she was going to shield as an opening, and so he had jumped straight to the killing blow. Before he could begin the incantation, he went tumbling backwards and Holly plucked his wand out of the air. People in the stands along the sides of the Hall stood and cheered at such a quick and dramatic victory, but Holly ignored them. She walked over to Avery, who seemed to have hurt his leg when he landed, and knelt down next to him.

"I know what you wanted to do, Avery. It won't bring your father back, and if you're lucky you'd have been spending your days in Azkaban. Moody might just have splattered you across the platform. You get one chance, from me. You try that again, and it won't be a disarming charm," Holly whispered to him, her voice calm and measured. She did not sound angry, nor disquieted. Her hand was still.

He nodded, and Holly helped him up. She looked at him and handed him back his wand. He took it, gingerly, and Holly felt something as she handed it back. Some surge of recognition from the wand, acknowledging the true stakes of the duel and her decision to return it.

Dumbledore looked at her from the staff table, and she saw pride in his sparkling blue eyes. She also caught Moody sliding his wand back into his sleeve, and shook her head ruefully. Of course there was a backup plan. Moody took Avery, clearly shaken and blank-faced, out of the hall.

With Avery defeated, Holly was able to watch the other duels with far less stress. She marvelled at how good some of the Seventh years really were, and she knew that she had done something incredible just by reaching this point. She had so many advantages - teachers who'd taken time for just her, friends willing to help - but she had only half the magical education of her opponents here, and they were mostly rich purebloods with tutors to spare.

She thought about what Hagrid had told her, about why he wanted her to win. She'd thought about entering the tournament at the start of the year mostly just because it sounded exciting. But now... now she had a reason to win it - and, she thought, when the chips were down and it really mattered, that was when she did her best.

Holly didn't end up facing Krum. He was knocked out in the third round, and Holly defeated her opponent there with little trouble. As good as many of the duellists here were, only Avery had possessed even basic Occlumency - and without it, there was little they could really do. It was almost impossible to defeat someone who knew what you were going to cast before you did.

The last duel of the entire competition came down to Holly and Fleur, who had used her nearly supernatural speed and reflexes to outcast most of her opponents. As they took their positions, Holly narrowed her eyes - Fleur was fast, but she didn't think she was that fast. She, like Holly, was probably using some kind of magic to read her opponents moves.

Flitwick called start, and neither of them moved. They battled, yes, but not in the physical world. Their respective mental probes raced through fake pathways and cleverly disguised traps. Holly felt Fleur's allure - that supernatural desire to please her - ramp up drastically. Her occlumency protected her, as it did from Fleur's surprisingly strong Legilmency.

Neither of them could gain an upper hand in their battle of wills, and so almost by mutual agreement they retreated to their own minds. People in the crowd seemed to be wondering what was going on, wondering why the two champions were merely standing ready and not casting.

"Your will is most admirable, Mademoiselle Potter," Fleur said.

"As is your own, Fleur. The old fashioned way, then?" Holly asked, and she raised her wand. They cast their first spells then, and fought in the much more traditional fence of hex and shield. Blasting hexes smashes across shimmering fields of energy, stunning spells slammed into one another in midair, and Holly whipped lighting at Fleur's incredibly strong shield charms.

It was a whirlwind of light and noise, exactly the kind of show the crowd was waiting for. Without access to the other's mind, both of them could dodge far fewer spells and had to instead rely on shield charms much more. Fleur's shield charms were better than Holly's, but Holly was faster and more accurate when it came to casting spells.

Fleur sent flocks of conjured birds to attack Holly, but she burnt them all to a crisp with a single wave of her wand and conjured hands from the surface of the platform to try to drag Fleur down. The nimble part-Veela girl evaded the grasping hands, trusted in her shield charm for a moment, and blasted the hands apart with a blasting hex.

Holly tried using bright flashes of light and loud sounds to disguise her attacks, but Fleur would simply retreat behind her shields, and with the spells at her disposal for this duel Holly couldn't break them fast enough.

Then, it happened. Holly's shield broke, and Fleur moved quickly to take advantage of it. Holly had the briefest moment to decide what to do, and she did not cast another shield. That way only left a grinding battle of attrition she was unsure she'd win. Instead, even as Fleur moved through the motions of a stunning spell, so did Holly. They both cast at almost the exact same time, and Holly threw herself to the side.

She woke up on the floor of the platform and heard Flitwick awaken someone else. She got to her feet, unsteadily, and looked around. Fleur was also picking herself up off the floor, and Holly's mind raced at the implications - had she lost? Had she won? She didn't know.

"Well, I have never seen anything like it... a draw by a double knockout! Miss Delacour, Miss Potter - do either of you demand a continuation?" Flitwick asked, and Holly half-recalled the rules on draws.

She looked at Fleur, and they both shook their heads.

"I'm happy to leave it at a draw, professor," Holly said.

"As am I. We shall let the third task determine the victor, no?" Fleur said, and Holly nodded. They shook hands, and Holly was very surprised when Fleur hugged her.

"That was amazing, Holly!" Ginny said, and Holly took her girlfriend's hand in her own as they walked out onto the grounds with their friends to enjoy the sun a little. It really was a rare beautiful day - blue skies, a pleasant temperature and an even more pleasant breeze.

Holly spent the time everyone else was taking exams getting ready for the third task, and catching up on some much-needed rest. She kept up her flights over the maze at night, and she saw new creatures being delivered and traps being installed. Some of Hagrid's Blast-Ended Skrewts were visible from the air, and there were surely more threats that were covered by the upper levels of the maze. She didn't see Avery again, after the duel. He was absent from dinner that night, and when she checked the Maurder's map, he was in Dumbledore's office. He stepped into the fireplace and didn't come back.

On the morning of the Third Task, Holly ate her breakfast with surprising energy. Whatever happened, after today the tournament would be over. She wanted to win - more than she had ever thought possible back when she'd been entered - but she felt calm as she finished the last of her bacon. She saw McGonagall walking towards her out of the corner of her eye, and turned to face the professor.

"Potter, the Champions are congregating in the chamber off the hall after breakfast," McGonagall said.

"Already?" Holly asked, surprised.

"The Champion's families are invited to watch the task. This is just a chance for you to greet them," McGonagall said, and Holly nodded. She hoped Remus had come as well as Sirius. He and her Godfather might not have been married, but she knew how much they cared for one another.

She finished the last bit of egg on her plate, sculled the rest of her pumpkin juice, and headed up to the chamber behind the Great Hall. The hidden door swung open as she approached, and she saw that the other champions were already inside. Fleur was talking to her sister, a little girl who looked just like her, whilst her silver-haired parents watched on. Krum was next to a gruff man and a dark-haired woman, and he was speaking to them in rapid Bulgarian. Cedric was sitting next to his father in a pair of worn-looking armchairs.

Sirius and Remus were standing by the entrance, and Holly smiled as she saw them.

"Sirisu! Remus!" Holly said and she hugged Sirius tightly, and then Remus more gently. He looked a little worn out, but he still smiled as she hugged him.

"It's good to see you both," Holly said, smiling widely.

"It's good to see you too, kid. You've grown since the last time I saw you in person," Sirius said.

"We listened to the other tasks on the wizarding wireless, but I'm glad we can be here this time," Remus said, and Holly nodded.

"The maze they've built looks wicked. It's got multiple levels and all sorts of stuff," Holly said.

"I know - Bagman showed us all around it while you were having breakfast. Merlin, is he annoying. What an ass," Sirius said, and Holly laughed.

"He's awful. Not a bad commentator, though," Holly said.

They then left the small chamber and walked onto the grounds, enjoying the clear skies and relatively warm weather. Holly talked about nothing all that serious, but she still felt glad to talk to her Godfather. Her friends wandered over after about an hour, and she smiled as they did.

"So this is the infamous girlfriend... she doesn't look like she's leading you down a path of wickedness," Sirius said, laughing, as Ginny approached.

"Shut it, you overgrown dog. Or I'll show you just how wicked I am," Ginny said, and that made Holly laugh too. Dobby brought them a picnic basket and they had lunch outside, with Holly inviting her elf friend to sit with them. He took some convincing but he did it in the end.

The day passed all too quickly, however, and soon enough Holly was walking down to the pitch after the evening feast. The path was lined with burning torches, and the champions were walking down before the rest of the school. It gave the procession an eerie affair, and Holly could swear she'd seen Sirius in his dog form watching from the forest's edges - but he was standing right next to her, the whole time.

Sirius and Remus wished her luck, and then Holly was alone with the other champions in front of the maze whilst the stands above them filled with people. The Third Task was about to begin.
 
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Hmm. Don't take this the wrong way, but the bit with Avery felt a bit... underwhelming? Underfocused? Not the duel (ending it so quickly does work, even if it's not what I would have expected), but the aftermath- there's no reaction from Avery shown or explained, not even his facial expression. And considering that he was basically stated to be on a suicide-assassination mission and a marked death eater on top of his feelings about his father, that feels like a mistake.
 
Holly could swear she'd seen Sirius in his dog form watching from the forest's edges

Oh. Holly has a bit of seer in her too, doesn't she? Seeing grims that foretell death and ill tidings. Will Cedric still die? Or will it be Fleur or Krum? And how will Holly's training fare when up against three dark wizards, and that's if the ritual is going to go the same anyway.

So much comes down to the Third Challenge.
 
Considering Voldemort presumably wants the same plan for his resurrection as OTL, Avery wouldn't have been him or his agent(s)

Draco only learned occulmency after 5th year from Bellatrix, so he's out. Lucius is possible, but boy would he suffer for it

Kakaroff?
 
Hmm. Don't take this the wrong way, but the bit with Avery felt a bit... underwhelming? Underfocused? Not the duel (ending it so quickly does work, even if it's not what I would have expected), but the aftermath- there's no reaction from Avery shown or explained, not even his facial expression. And considering that he was basically stated to be on a suicide-assassination mission and a marked death eater on top of his feelings about his father, that feels like a mistake.
Why wouldn't Holly read his mind while dismissing him? Perhaps she could tell Moody or Dumbledore that he's had direct contact with Death Eaters, so they know who to investigate for the Quiddich Cup attack. Holly, this boy is going to go after your friends to get to you! He specifically doesn't care about himself…

Dang it, Potter. Saving people at risk to yourself.
 
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