Interesting.
Okay, so I'm going to actually put in some effort now.
Looking back at the posts, I really don't think that Atoms is strictly lying about his role. Here's how he introduces it.
I mean, between the cult, 3 or 4 serial killers, and questionable amount of factional roles (who probably aren't all on the same team), it's pretty close. I'd be surprised if Town had more than 10 players.
Now, a lot of this is very confusing becuase I have no idea what it's being based on, but right now I super don't want to know, don't tell me. However one thing I think worth noting that they don't actually, like, draw attention to it. They don't put emphasis on it, in fact that don't seem to be expecting to be questioned at all. If this is a fakeclaim, it's a really weird one. Especially since they continue stating this as essentially fact until I pressure them to actually explain what on Earth they're talking about. It's too obvious for fake breacrumbing while also not actually drawing attention to it to force elaboration. While they are experienced enough to know how a cult works, it feels like a really janky way to lie about this.
Which leaves a couple options
1. They are scum and know there is a cult (Possible imo)
2. They are scum and are being very cute about a fakeclaim (not as likely imo)
3. They are this role and are third party
4. They are this role and they are town.
I think two is unlikely, and I do think Nictis has made a compelling case regarding 4. I still dobut that there is a cult at all, so I'd scratch out one. Which leaves 3. Now in terms of my questions, I didn't overly like the push on Byzantine since it was right after I called him out for his bad vote, it felt like echoing. The Nictis read is a new thought though, and it feels a bit weird- I would expect somebody strictly anti-town to be a bit more reactive here, perhaps not outright pushing on Nictis, but leaving the option mcuh more open.
And also, I'll be frank, this wagon is pretty bad.
The votes on it are Ncitis, Archeo, Comi, nopeguy, and Byzantine.
Nictis' vote is fine and overall competently reasoned. No issues there. Archeo's is in my opinion pretty bad, but it fits with what I recall about Archeo's play? Very dated meta, but this just feels like an archeo sort of vote to me, so nothing really in either directly. Comi voted before the wagon started, so they're a non-factor for me atm; if they've posted since I haven't seen it.
Byzantine I have more to say about. Now, let's look at their first appeal after the semi-role claim; if you read it, it doesn't read like somebody suspecting somebody at all, at least to me. It reads more coachy to somebody who is in over their head, but is genuine. They don't apply any real pressure on them regarding the cult, they don't ask for any sort of follow-up or try to learn about this person's alignment, nothing like that. Then after Nictis seems to be building traction, they suddenly start swinging pretty hard, and partially based it on something they showed no real interest in before or found overly suspicious. This feels a lot like somebody seeing weakness and jumping at it rather than actually looking for anti-town. Their next post isn't terrible, but it doesn't feel like overly new thoughts and it leaves me confused as to why they're voting them at all. Frankly if it's just to resolve the issue, I don't like that? That feels like a default option if we don't have anything better, not something to push right now. Though that could be a personal preference thing, I guess.
Nopeguy echoes Nictis and also provides reasons that don't seem to indicate that Atoms's is anti-town, if anything I might draw the opposite conclusion.
Overall aside from Nictis (and Comi), I don't really like the wagon at all. Archeo is neutral, and the other two votes have me going D:<
Overall, my conclusion is that Atoms is probably third party. Maaaybe an explicitly anti-town third party, but probably not a part of any sort of mafia team to be honest, and almost certainly not the cult-leader imo. I think that keeping them as a default option for pressure is good, but I don't feel comfortable joining the wagon right now.
[x] Vote Byzantine
