What voice/tense should the story be in?

  • Second person present

    Votes: 4 22.2%
  • Second person past

    Votes: 1 5.6%
  • Third person past

    Votes: 13 72.2%

  • Total voters
    18
  • Poll closed .
Lore: Surrounded On All Sides - An Examination of the Empire's Neighbors - the Purple Silk Kingdom
The Purple Silk Kingdom used to be a nation much like the Empire. In many ways, the peoples of the Empire and the Kingdom were and are cousins. Though rivals throughout their history and coming to blows more than once, the two states were more similar than not. Both had sects, both had a well-functioning bureaucracy, and both had abundance that led to the blossoming of art and philosophy. With its borders relatively secure and riches that more than rivaled the Empire's, the old Purple Silk Kingdom was a well-functioning nation, albeit one with a tendency towards opulence and decadence. Books have been written and songs sung of the massive feasts and festivals the Kings of the Purple Silk partook in.

And then the barbarians of the east came. United by their Hetman, Cemultu, the barbarians swept across the Purple Silk Kingdom like a plague. Cemultu had made common cause with the Azure Dragon of the East who had been insulted by some slight of the Kings of the Purple Silk. It is rumored that the court of Purple Silk had fallen into true decadence and chosen to eat one of the Azure Dragon's descendants. No one knows if the rumor is true, but this scholar does not doubt its veracity.

Upon alliance with the Great Dragon, Cemultu claimed a divine mandate and united the disparate tribes and petty kingdoms that called the eastern steppe and its environs home. The combination of heavily armed and armored winged hussars and fast hitting bow cavalry drove all before the horde. Where they met resistance too strong, the kirin cavalry, powerful cultivators riding powerful spirit beasts, overwhelmed the opposition with their earth shaking charges and high-power Qi attacks. It did not help that Cemultu himself was a powerful Awakened, as were his personal unit of bodyguards.

When the horde invaded, the various duchies of the Purple Silk Kingdom debated their response as their King continued to throw parties. One by one, different parts of the Kingdom fell. Though the individual duchies and sects fought, they were disunited and did not have the power, either in men or cultivation to throw back the horde. In the span of a decade, the Purple Silk Kingdom was overrun.

The horde proceeded to try and invade the Empire. However, the Empire had seen the threat of the barbarians and united against like it had united against every external threat for more than a millennia. The combination of the Imperial military, the nobility's banners and levies, and the sects' military forces created an impenetrable wall that broke the back of the horde. Thrown back, it reconsolidated its control of the Purple Silk Kingdom, breaking the Kingdom and the former lands of the eastern barbarians into a host of fiefdoms beholden to Baretu, Cemultu's son who was elevated to the hetmanship and after Cemultu's ascension. Baretu crowned himself King of the Purple Silk Kingdom and cemented his control over the kingdom by marrying the daughters of his most prominent chieftains and magnates.

Over time, the Purple Silk Kingdom has grown more and more similar to its form before the eastern barbarians came. The King throws massive parties, the bureaucracy has increasing amounts of power, and fractious nobles vie with one another. The greatest change has the been the institutions of debt peonage and serfdom that have made the lives of the common folk even more difficult than they already were under the old Kingdom.

However, some of the chieftains and magnates clamor for the old ways of conquest. The richest target is, of course, the Empire. The Duchy of the Black Crane maintains a constant guard against incursions. Its levies are well-trained to counter the Kingdom's cavalry, and its vigilance is legendary. Nevertheless, young riders still occasionally cross the Red Earth River to raid and to build their names. The Crane cannot be everywhere. And occasionally the raiders go north, around the Duchy of the Black Crane to raid across the Red Earth River against the Sect of the Broken Tree. The Broken Tree sets outposts of younger disciples along the river so that the youngsters may experience combat outside of a true war.

The politics of the Purple Silk Kingdom are contentious. From the newly renamed capital of Azure City, the King ostensibly presides over the Conclave of the Szelka, the body made up of all the tribal chieftains, military commanders, and nobility with their own followings. In reality, the Conclave is a fractious collection of lords who can only agree on their dislike for one another. The only thing that holds the whole mess together is the personal power of Cemultu's grandson, Baretu, who is a pinnacle Sage cultivator. Along side him rides the forces directly sworn to Baretu, including the kirin cavalry. And of course, Baretu is tied to almost all of his chieftains and great magnates via ties of kith and kin.

It is obvious that the Kingdom is a threat to the Empire, but it is also a threat to itself. It remains to be seen whether the Kingdom will turn its restive energy against the Empire or against itself.

- Excerpt from Surrounded On All Sides - An Examination of the Empire's Neighbors by Chao Tsing, Scholar Emeritus, the Imperial University of the East.
 
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So, for numbers:

Each die has a 1/3 chance of being a success. It's actually worth a little more than a third, because it also has a chance of exploding into another success, which could explode into another, and so on, but we can call it 1/3 for simplicity.

So Midnight Visitation straight up adds 2/3 of a success on an average roll.

Breath of the Storm subtracts 2/3 of a success, then adds a success, for a net of 1/3 on an average roll.

So Midnight Visitation is definitely stronger at level 1, but only modestly so.
Technically each dice averages out to 2/5 of a success. There's no limit on exploding, but as it approaches infinite rolls it gets closer to but never actually hits 0.4.
I think that puts the average successes on the affected 2 dice for each art at 1 exactly for Breath, and 1.28 for Midnight, though the latter obviously has variance.

Though as I said earlier even with that I still prefer the Storm one. We've seen with Sprout's Yearning cultivation arts can synergise with sites/fonts, and we already have access to a site we know shares elements with Breath (and potentially with a higher level Levin Step), whereas with Midnight we have no real idea what the elements are or what we'd need to do to find a relevant site. Plus IMO a slightly lower cap on average is a worthy price to pay for less variance overall in the results.
For what it's worth, I'm mostly voting for Midnight Visitation because of the math. I'm not someone who really believes in luck and even if I did, I feel like the people focusing on 'our rolls are cursed so the only thing we can do is eliminate' which I don't think is the majority of storm voters, just ones I think I have a decent argument to convince are kind of hyperfocusing in on a handful of underwhelming rolls that can be contrasted to a handful of overwhelming rolls in a sea of more average ones Hua Yin has had throughout the quest.

Which, don't get me wrong, it certainly feels like Hua Yin is getting hosed by the dice but human brains are really good at picking up on patterns that don't necessarily match up and our amazing rolls usually don't get anywhere near as much fanfare as our bad ones so I think that plays into how chance 'feels' stacked against us.
We have been doing pretty well. He got top of the class in the 2 side classes so far, he's maintaining his place just below the top rank in cultivation, and he's gone from dead last to wobbling around below-average in physical class.
If anything that makes me like Breath more because it makes us slightly less reliant on the dice for good results.
 
Oh hey it's NotKorea!
I think that it's more than simply NotKorea. I'm not that familiar with Korean history, but I saw several elements from Poland in the mix. The winged hussars were a dead giveaway. Then there is the powerful council of nobility with a Polish name, and the weak king. Plus, hetman is a title historically used in Poland, among other places in Central/Eastern Europe.

It also may be inspired by China instead of Korea. China has had a fair few periods of decline. I think some of them came to an end courtesy of nomadic "Barbarian" invaders. Of course, Korea may have had such events occur to them as well, I don't know that much about their history.
 
whereas with Midnight we have no real idea what the elements are or what we'd need to do to find a relevant site
The action was specifically worded to find suitable options for the Kiss of Tribulation. I doubt that the QM has given us an option that does not specifically fit with the Kiss.
We don't actually know what all the Elements of the Kiss are, so I presume the Midnight Visitation fits with the unknown components.
 
We don't actually know what all the Elements of the Kiss are, so I presume the Midnight Visitation fits with the unknown components.
Still betting on them both secretly being Celestial.

Oh man what if we start painting auroras into the sky. So many ways this could go. I'm excite!
 
Still betting on them both secretly being Celestial.

Oh man what if we start painting auroras into the sky. So many ways this could go. I'm excite!
I could see that for MV, but Breath mentions storms in the description, and literally has it in the name? Depending on how higher level cultivation works I could see it being possible to develop Storm element into something like Celestial, but for a basic tier art we got out of 2 successes on our search, I don't see Breath being anything other than what it says on the tin.

And if that's the case why take the risk on MV when it's obvious Breath will fit with the Kiss? Name aside, MV doesn't actually have any description about it to say what element it cleaves to, and from the description reads more like the basic option anyone could find if they rolled low on their search. I could be wrong, but again why take the risk.
And then he felt more, the sense of a storm about to fall upon the earth, lightning and thunder as preludes. He tasted steel on his tongue. There was something else too, something distant and faint, but he did not know what it was.

[ ] The Midnight Visitation: An introductory cultivation technique that focuses on soaking on re-cycling Qi in the air to get the maximum amount of benefit out of the minimum amount of Qi. At first level, reroll 2 dice on a cultivation roll.

[ ] Breath of the Storm: An introductory cultivation technique requiring deep breathing similar to the howl of air in a storm. At first level, trade 2 cultivation dice for 1 guaranteed cultivation training success.
 
INT (6) + Knowledge: Crafting (0) + 1 (Copious Notes). Hua Yin takes a -1 penalty.
Hua Yin rolls 6 against TN 4 (Top of the Class).
warumonoqm rolls 6d6e5 = 5⊕ 1 6⊕ 1 4 5⊕ → 3 successes against 5
warumonoqm rolls 1d6e5 = 4 → 0 successes against
Wait. As a former bureaucrat, why don't we have a bonus with Caligraphy proficiency?
 
Outside of the consistency, what I like about "The Breath of the Storm" is that I can visualize its imagery very well. Same with our sprout cultivation technique. I'm having difficulty doing that with "A Midnight Visitation."
 
[X] Breath of the Storm: An introductory cultivation technique requiring deep breathing similar to the howl of air in a storm. At first level, trade 2 cultivation dice for 1 guaranteed cultivation training success.
[X] Run to the rescue. Song Chyou might not be one of Hua Yin's good friends, but she was good people and the spirit-blooded boy had obviously done something to her.
 
Seems like a poor idea to take a technique that will help with the font we have now, when that is so far away that we will probably have access to more fonts and there might be better. Take the technique that is better all around, especially as we know for a fact better techniques are available if we excel.

The technique gets the listed bonus when it hits level 1, Sprout's Yearning just hit level 1 itself. We are weeks away from that level 1 and any specific bonuses that would be "better with Kiss" are at level 2 at the earliest. So probably 2 months of in game time? If it exists.
 
[X] The Midnight Visitation: An introductory cultivation technique that focuses on soaking on re-cycling Qi in the air to get the maximum amount of benefit out of the minimum amount of Qi. At first level, reroll 2 dice on a cultivation roll.
 
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The two techniques that are available offer two very different approaches to trying to reduce the variability inherent in the dice system used by this quest. To start with, it is probably useful to point out that the chances of success are quite low with each dice rolled – to get an expected 5 successes (i.e. a mean of 5 successes) for example you need to be rolling 14 dice. So ~1/3 chance of success on each die rolled.

I have more detailed information in the spoiler section below, but the overall picture is that at 1st level of the cultivation skill, The Midnight Visitation gives ~0.5 successes on average more than Breath of the Storm, and that as the skill level and dice increase, this advantage increases to about ~2.25 successes where 10 dice are being rerolled or 5 auto-successes added; and that the larger the dice pool, the less pronounced the reroll advantage is, but it is still reasonably marked. The advantage is not unreasonable as even with rerolls, there is still more variability (both good and bad) compared to the auto-success technique, and the bad results will be worse than the auto-success technique.

To begin with I have assumed that the two techniques will increase linearly with level (i.e. 2, 4, 6 ... or 2:1, 4:2, 6:3 ...), and have not calculated beyond level 5 of each.
As a reminder our Cultivation dice pool is [(Will) + (Cultivation skill) + (Cultivation Level) + (Cultivation Site) + Misc]. For ease of calculation I have not included any miscellaneous bonuses or penalties, but these affect the guaranteed success technique more due to it's smaller dice pool numbers.
For dice pools for the calculations below I have used the following assumptions:
a. All cultivation actions use the Kiss of Tribulation (i.e. 4 dice site)
b. I have assumed that the cultivation skill will equal the level of the technique
c. I assume stepping up cultivation levels at technique levels 3, 4, 5 (1 level for each)
d. I have assumed a Will stat up at technique level 4 (from increasing our cultivation level) which also affects level 5.

I believe that I have been relatively conservative in the dice pool numbers and that they are reasonable approximations of what we would be rolling.

This results in base dice pools of 13, 14, 16, 19 and 21 dice for levels 1 to 5

The mean values for X dice with rerolls were calculated using Torben Mogensen's Troll calculator which can be used at Troll dice roller and probability calculator

The Midnight Visitation:
Because we are calculating successes and the rerolls are taken from failures, calculating the total probability of success is [mean(base dice pool) + mean (reroll pool)]
This gives mean values of 5.5, 6.2508, 8.0667, 9.9, 11.3667 for levels 1 to 5 respectively

Breath of the Storm:
This is a success substitution technique so calculating the total probability of success is [mean(base dice pool – 2*auto-successes) + auto-successes]
This gives mean values of 5.0333, 5.6667, 6.6667, 8.0333, 9.0333 for levels 1 to 5 respectively.
Importantly, the variance is notably reduced due to the smaller dice pool, and the auto-successes cushion an unfortunate roll significantly.

Comparing Midnight Visitation to Breath of the Storm, it is 9.27% more efficient at level 1, and 25.8% more efficient at level 5 but with the possibility of a worse result with bad rolls.

In the summary I mentioned that with more dice the advantage for rerolling becomes less pronounced, so I also repeated the calculations with the +5 bonus dice we get in cultivation class and this gave results of:
Midnight Visitation: 7.3333, 8.0842, 9.9, 11.7333 and 13.2
Breath of the Storm: 6.8667, 7.5, 8.5, 9.8667, 10.8667

The 5 extra dice reduce Midnight Visitation's advantage to 6.8% at level 1 and 21% at level 5, and with larger pools the advantage would shrink more.

TL;DR:
Midnight Visitation is at least 10% more efficient at our current cultivation, and this efficiency increases as cultivation and cultivation skill increases, but is offset by the fact that it is more "swingy" (greater variance), and the extremes of good and bad luck are more significant than Breath of the Storm.
 
[X] Breath of the Storm: An introductory cultivation technique requiring deep breathing similar to the howl of air in a storm. At first level, trade 2 cultivation dice for 1 guaranteed cultivation training success.
 
Midnight Visitation is at least 10% more efficient at our current cultivation, and this efficiency increases as cultivation and cultivation skill increases, but is offset by the fact that it is more "swingy" (greater variance), and the extremes of good and bad luck are more significant than Breath of the Storm.

Basically we roll enough dice that 2 rerolls ~ 2 dice, though as the only way we can not get that out of it is to have a roll of all 5s, which is extremely unlikely. I agree with your conclusion but I think assuming that each level is going to linearly increase the same bonus is likely flawed, we have one example of a technique going to level 2 in the mechanics page for Gardener's Walk and it doesn't do that, instead adding a new effect at level 2.
 
[X] The Midnight Visitation: An introductory cultivation technique that focuses on soaking on re-cycling Qi in the air to get the maximum amount of benefit out of the minimum amount of Qi. At first level, reroll 2 dice on a cultivation roll.
 
This has to be one of the most contested votes yet as they are tied.....again.
Adhoc vote count started by Yzarc on Nov 26, 2021 at 10:13 AM, finished with 81 posts and 41 votes.
 
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[X] The Midnight Visitation: An introductory cultivation technique that focuses on soaking on re-cycling Qi in the air to get the maximum amount of benefit out of the minimum amount of Qi. At first level, reroll 2 dice on a cultivation roll.

[X] Walk to the rescue. Something has obviously happened, but you don't know what yet. Greet the both of them and inquire as to the situation here.
 
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