An what happens if the EU loses and is kicked out of the area? I doubt we will get to keep the grant. Better to wait a year and see how cookie crumbles.
There's basically three outcomes to this
1) They settle into a stalemate, neither giving or taking an inch. This requires us to carefully thread the needle to maintain neutrality but tensions should lower a bit as a routine gets established.
2) They shoot at each other and one emerges the victor. If the EU wins, nothing changes and we can still get the grant next turn, maybe even get better deals as EU seeks to secure their winnings. If the US wins we basically have to start over again diplomatically and may not even keep the grant, thus making it moot.
3) One blinks and pulls away. Same situation as above, but with much less drastic results.
So let's not lock ourselves into a path when the international situation is so in flux.
It's not about keeping the grant, it's about giving the EU a reason to decide
against "bringing freedom to a tinpot dictatorship" or even reducing the likelihood of "oh shit we accidentally misclicked on our fire order and now Little Klondike is space dust whoops".
If we can give the superpowers throwing carrier battlegroups into the region a reason to say "yeah Little K over there is a safe zone don't hit them or anything", that's
exactly what we want. If they decide that we're worth investing in but we're going to stay politically independent, fine.
Like, in your three scenarios:
1. They settle into a stalemate - If the EU is not favorable to us while the US has absolutely no reason to care about us, that's
not a position we want to remain in. That means we're "acceptable backstops" for EU and American fire both, and possibly "worth screwing over real quick for the EU".
2. They shoot at each other and one wins.
2a. The EU wins.
DEFINITELY DO NOT REMAIN EVEN SLIGHTLY ON EU'S BAD SIDE IMMEDIATELY BEND OVER AND SAY SIR YES SIR
2b. The US wins.
DEFINITELY DO NOT REMAIN EVEN SLIGHTLY ON US' BAD SIDE IMMEDIATELY FIND SOME VALUE THAT WE CAN TRADE FOR RETAINING POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE
3. One blinks and pulls away.
3a. The EU wins.
DEFINITELY DO NOT REMAIN EVEN SLIGHTLY ON EU'S BAD SIDE IMMEDIATELY BEND OVER AND SAY SIR YES SIR
3b. The US wins.
In the case of things not going superhot on the border, we have a few options ranging from "heeeey mr. superpower would you like to hear all about how you should guarantee our political independence for X reasons?" to "keep your head down and let the US believe that the podunk little extraction colony here has nothing to offer".
Across all cases, we benefit from having a reputation for top-class hospitals among the existing diplomatic apparatuses in the region, far more than we benefit from having a reputation as Local New Belt Zero-G Rim and Space Champions or whatever. We benefit significantly less from EU's diplo action if the US is the remaining superpower, yes, but that's why I haven't made a competing plan for the EU's attention.
