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Res Publica: A Quest of Ancient Rome

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I'm sure some of you have already stated and discussed what I'm writing here, but these are just some of my thoughts on the matter. Judge me not to harshly in my critique on Gemino and our situation vis a vis him. It may look bad, but there are some really good opportunities here.

One: we have actual proof that, despite our forces being green and not Rome's finest, we can still take his forces head on. And we also apparently cut out a good portion of his mid management. An important thing to note about anti-guerrilla warfare tactics (now we call it counter insurgency), is that taking out the head of the snake isn't always the best way to kill a movement. Sometimes, killing off a commander's lieutenants can cripple an insurgency just as effectively. While the general may still be there, much of his effectiveness in commanding a large group of men comes from having a capable staff that he can trust to know his thoughts and effectively carry out his orders.

Gemino just lost that. The people he replaces them with will be not as good, not as experienced in taking up the role, and that will play to our advantage. Trying to fight him on his own turf, bringing the fight to him when our supply situation right now could very well see us caught in a trap that gets us decapitated. But we do have a way to victory: getting him to attack us. His advantage is in being mobile, wearing us down, demoralizing us. To truly have a chance of eliminating him, we need to get him into a trap.

Lay out a trap to entice your enemy, feign disorder, then crush him

Sun Tzu made these words famous, but he was just reiterating what many commanders have used throughout the millennia: the best bait to lure out your adversary is to present yourself as weak, disorganized, and easy to take down. Offer them an opportunity that is too good to pass up, and punish them for it when they take it. This would not be an unbelievable situation for us to create: surely all have heard that the local legion is low on supplies, and filled with young recruits, and led by a young, inexperienced commander. But Gemino is clever. Surely he wouldn't fall for such a easy to see through ruse right? That leads us to the second observation I made.

Two: Gemino, for all his supposed brilliance and craftiness, has a fatal flaw: hubris. This is a man who apparently sneaked into our camp himself, to deliver a letter written to us by himself. It was to send several messages, not just what was written, but to say "look what I can do", and, "look at how in over your head you are". He's arrogant, and proud. For all his supposed subtlety, he has a flair for the dramatic. It wasn't enough for him to have us just see our legion get run around in circles, he had to give us a taste of his power first hand. It's a typical attitude many criminals take when interacting with the law. It provides a unique sense of special-ness, of power and superhuman capability.

It also get's them caught or killed 99.99% of the time.

If we present a situation that shows our legion and cohorts to be " totally weak", or lead a party of rowdy Gauls into a situation that leaves us "completely compromised", Gemino will almost certainly take the bait. His psychology demands it. He personally told us "go home boy, before I teach you a lesson you won't live to understand". And here we still are, digging in, and coming at him again. He has to come at us; he has to punish us.

And therein lays our victory. But those are just my take on the situation. I'll vote for a plan when I think on it some more.
 
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SwordsmanofS said:
I'm sure some of you have already stated and discussed what I'm writing here, but these are just some of my thoughts on the matter. Judge me not to harshly in my critique on Gemino and our situation vis a vis him. It may look bad, but there are some really good opportunities here.

One: we have actual proof that, despite our forces being green and not Rome's finest, we can still take his forces head on. And we also apparently cut out a good portion of his mid management. An important thing to note about anti-guerrilla warfare tactics (now we call it counter insurgency), is that taking out the head of the snake isn't always the best way to kill a movement. Sometimes, killing off a commander's lieutenants can cripple an insurgency just as effectively. While the general may still be there, much of his effectiveness in commanding a large group of men comes from having a capable staff that he can trust to know his thoughts and effectively carry out his orders.
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In this instance, you're right, though I'd like to point out three caveats:

1) Gemino likely can at least keep up guerilla operations with fresh lieutenants if he has to; it may not go as well for him but he's very skilled. As long as he remains reasonably popular his recruitment base is likely to last. Quality may go down, to be sure.

2) The Samnites are quite experienced in this style of irregular hill warfare. They fought Sulla this way not long ago. They fought the Social Wars. They probably fight each other this way now and then, too, as demonstrated by how many bandit troops there were ready to pick up the torch as rebels in relatively short order when we arrived.

3) Consequently to (2), they probably have quite a lot of guerilla fighters who know what they're doing. Many of the old hands are plausible successors to any of Gemino's lieutenants we may manage to knock off. Going up against Gemino may be a bit like the US experience in Afghanistan in the early years; even if you manage to take down a LOT of the Taliban's lieutenants, they always seem to have more, and they never get truly incompetent or ineffectual.

All of this being said, though...

Sun Tzu made these words famous, but he was just reiterating what many commanders have used throughout the millennia: the best bait to lure out your adversary is to present yourself as weak, disorganized, and easy to take down. Offer them an opportunity that is too good to pass up, and punish them for it when they take it. This would not be an unbelievable situation for us to create: surely all have heard that the local legion is low on supplies, and filled with young recruits, and led by a young, inexperienced commander. But Gemino is clever. Surely he wouldn't fall for such a easy to see through ruse right? That leads us to the second observation I made.

Two: Gemino, for all his supposed brilliance and craftiness, has a fatal flaw: hubris. This is a man who apparently sneaked into our camp himself, to deliver a letter written to us by himself. It was to send several messages, not just what was written, but to say "look what I can do", and, "look at how in over your head you are". He's arrogant, and proud. For all his supposed subtlety, he has a flair for the dramatic. It wasn't enough for him to have us just see our legion get run around in circles, he had to give us a taste of his power first hand. It's a typical attitude many criminals take when interacting with the law. It provides a unique sense of special-ness, of power and superhuman capability.

It also get's them caught or killed 99.99% of the time.

If we present a situation that shows our legion and cohorts to be " totally weak", or lead a party of rowdy Gauls into a situation that leaves us "completely compromised", Gemino will almost certainly take the bait. His psychology demands it. He personally told us "go home boy, before I teach you a lesson you won't live to understand". And here we still are, digging in, and coming at him again. He has to come at us; he has to punish us.

And therein lays our victory. But those are just my take on the situation. I'll vote for a plan when I think on it some more.
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I think this is far from a bad idea, but I also think we should take some steps to make sure our own situation is stronger and more secure before we try to feign insecurity and draw him into a trap.

We want him to identify a weakness and jump on it, only for us to bring the hammer down on him. We don't want him to identify a weakness that's actually there and cause us massive problems that prevent us from swinging that hammer.
 
A bit, probably, but nowhere near enough for us to be confident they'll carry out orders they don't like when out of our sight, or abstain from plundering anyone they can physically get away with plundering.

I mean, the Gauls IRL weren't absolute howling savages in the stereotypical sense, but by Roman standards their concept of discipline was very, very limited.
 
Simon_Jester said:
In this instance, you're right, though I'd like to point out three caveats:

1) Gemino likely can at least keep up guerilla operations with fresh lieutenants if he has to; it may not go as well for him but he's very skilled. As long as he remains reasonably popular his recruitment base is likely to last. Quality may go down, to be sure.

2) The Samnites are quite experienced in this style of irregular hill warfare. They fought Sulla this way not long ago. They fought the Social Wars. They probably fight each other this way now and then, too, as demonstrated by how many bandit troops there were ready to pick up the torch as rebels in relatively short order when we arrived.

3) Consequently to (2), they probably have quite a lot of guerilla fighters who know what they're doing. Many of the old hands are plausible successors to any of Gemino's lieutenants we may manage to knock off. Going up against Gemino may be a bit like the US experience in Afghanistan in the early years; even if you manage to take down a LOT of the Taliban's lieutenants, they always seem to have more, and they never get truly incompetent or ineffectual.
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Funny thing about 'bandits' and 'criminals' and 'rebels' and such: as chaotic and rustic as their 'organizations' appear to be, they are typically quite meritocratic. In that, to be in charge of a group of people who are by very nature outside of civilization proper, one has to be naturally competent. That competency can come in a variety of forms: being the strongest, or fastest, or smartest, or the most ruthless. Whatever it is, If you are in a leadership position, it's because you clawed your way there, you earned it. And if you are still there, it is because you have successfully defended your position. In these groups, 'weakness' is not tolerated. Those who are strong are large and in charge; the weak serve or are dead. But that's in a vacuum however.

In reality, things change. Enter counter-insurgency. The very name tells the strategy: use insurgency (what was once known as guerrilla) tactics against the insurgents. Divide and conquer using a thousand cuts.

While you are right to point to US efforts against the Taliban in Afghanistan as the pitfalls of counter-insurgency, I would argue it's not the most correct analogy. The Afghan insurgency was allowed to continue because many (read: most) of Taliban 'leadership' was housed and trained in Pakistan and other nearby countries. Kill a cell leader, the cell goes to ground while his replacement gets trained in a 'neutral' country, meanwhile another cell that was dormant temporarily takes their place. So the cycle continues. Also, this was the beginning of when the US military really began to adapt to this type of warfare. Part of the problem was back then the US Army was built to fight a different type of enemy, causing problems. Nowadays, that's not the case. A more appropriate example would be the war against ISIS. While folks may deride the fact that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi always seems to slip away, the fact that those US air strikes killed his lieutenants long term crippled the organizations ability to function. And unlike the Taliban, their pride did not allow them to go to ground. They had to fight like a state. It's why ISIS is a practically a non entity at this point. In fact, the war against ISIS shows the evolution in US military strategy and composition. The US military of 2010s is built to hunt down and kill insurgents.

To expand on that, when you kill a lieutenant, the man who replaces him will be, by default, less competent than he. The key is that when this change in leadership is happening, you need to strike again. Don't let the enemy recover, the enemy is now actually weaker than when you just hit them. Leverage your greater size and resources to continue to hit. Kill the next man or cell before they can go to ground. Fight insurgent with insurgents.

What happens next? You have, at best, a replacement of a replacement. At best. And remember, even if he is a good veteran, that doesn't make a good officer. These folks aren't going to have smartphones and flash drives that contain instructions and such of key plans. They won't even have it written down. It's going to be what you can remember what was told to you orally. And the guy now in charge was not who those plans were meant for. Chances are, he doesn't know the plan, or if he does, it's a incomplete picture, which is even worse. What's worse than what you don't know is what you think you do, but don't.

From there it breaks down even further. Continued losses decimate group morale. Communication breaks down, ideas differ. A typical action is a cell will go rogue, either breaking off and going to ground, or suicideing by thinking they know what's best. Cracks continue until the whole structure breaks down. By the time you eliminate the boss, the organization was dying already. A death by a thousand cuts.

So what does that mean for us? I recommend that we target Gemino by targeting his support structure. How? Traps. Make our strengths look like weaknesses to him and his new lieutenants who will be running hits. Those are: 1)Size, 2)Organization, 3)Tactics in traditional battle. In effect, we need to make the first two appear decimated enough that the Samnite asshats will ignore number three. Or more plainly, we're so exposed that attacking us in an area not completely advantageous to them is to good to pass up.

Our size is 'negated' by our cohorts in multiple locations doing different tasks. Organization is negated by green troops led by a green commander who are also divided and experiencing supply issues. A now a small force led by the enemy commander that you personally warned to back the fuck up, is close to your territory, strutting around like the Roman peacock that he is?

There's no way Gemino passes that up. Again, his honor and pride demands that he teaches us a lesson. Our victory lies in either leading our Gauls to routing him ourselves (a risky proposition), or as I would prefer, leading him in such a way that by the time he realizes he is in a trap, we have a nearby cohort cut off his escape route, and maybe have some others men cut him in the sides. It's in moments like these that I wish we had even a rough map of the area that we are operating in. Because ideally, I would like to know if our AO is close enough to a friendly city that we can use one of the sent cohorts to come out and cut off retreat.

Either way, even if Gemino escapes again, that's not the point. He'll lose more lieutenants, and that cripples his organization further. Normally, at that point, a man would go to ground to lick his wounds. But Gemino is like ISIS; his pride won't let him do what is necessary to survive after being hit. 'I am the man who confounded Sulla, and a young Roman shithead is going to do me in? No!' He'll feel the need to back up his words, just like all criminals who publicly challenge law enforcement that way. Only he'll be doing it on short notice, with troops who (even if he gets new recruits from the locals) are demoralized due to defeats and are suffering from a lack of good consistent leadership. From there, it's just a matter of time.

But to make it more than just theory, I'd really like to see some sort of idea of what the area looks like. Can form a more concrete plan that way.

And holy shit I've written too much. This is what a college education does to you; be warned!
 
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SwordsmanofS said:
And holy shit I've written too much. This is what a college education does to you; be warned!
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Meh. Been there, done that.

To expand on that, when you kill a lieutenant, the man who replaces him will be, by default, less competent than he. The key is that when this change in leadership is happening, you need to strike again. Don't let the enemy recover, the enemy is now actually weaker than when you just hit them. Leverage your greater size and resources to continue to hit. Kill the next man or cell before they can go to ground. Fight insurgent with insurgents.

What happens next? You have, at best, a replacement of a replacement. At best. And remember, even if he is a good veteran, that doesn't make a good officer. These folks aren't going to have smartphones and flash drives that contain instructions and such of key plans. They won't even have it written down. It's going to be what you can remember what was told to you orally. And the guy now in charge was not who those plans were meant for. Chances are, he doesn't know the plan, or if he does, it's a incomplete picture, which is even worse. What's worse than what you don't know is what you think you do, but don't.
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The flip side of this is, we don't have drone strikes. We don't have sniper rifles. We don't have signals intelligence. We can't just identify people in Gemino's organization and press a 'delete' button. We have to physically walk up to them and murder them with big knives and pointy sticks, while all the low-level goons are fighting us at the same time. And if they physically run away faster than we can follow, we lose.

Furthermore, Gemino's organization is concentrated in space and limited in numbers. He has like 500 guys. He may well know them all personally, at least in passing acquaintance. There are no doubt at least two layers of intermediate leadership in there, but he's not commanding tens of thousands of men dispersed into a cell structure and scattered across a huge area. This, again, diminishes the impact of breaking up his 'communications,' because ultimately his solution to a breakdown in communications is to walk over there and talk some sense into the guy. And this is a viable strategy for him, as it wouldn't be for the commander of ISIL or the Taliban.

...

Now don't get me wrong, I agree that luring Gemino into traps is a good idea. But I suspect the mechanism by which it works will be much less indirect than what you describe. I suspect it'll work because it just plain gets a bunch of his best soldiers killed, the men and the officers. Because it makes him look stupid, and possibly gets him killed. In particular because if the bait we put in the trap is big enough for him to expect to inflict any meaningful harm on us when he grabs it, it'll probably also be big enough to demand his personal attention.

So what does that mean for us? I recommend that we target Gemino by targeting his support structure. How? Traps. Make our strengths look like weaknesses to him and his new lieutenants who will be running hits. Those are: 1)Size, 2)Organization, 3)Tactics in traditional battle. In effect, we need to make the first two appear decimated enough that the Samnite asshats will ignore number three. Or more plainly, we're so exposed that attacking us in an area not completely advantageous to them is to good to pass up.

Our size is 'negated' by our cohorts in multiple locations doing different tasks. Organization is negated by green troops led by a green commander who are also divided and experiencing supply issues. A now a small force led by the enemy commander that you personally warned to back the fuck up, is close to your territory, strutting around like the Roman peacock that he is?
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True. On the other hand we should probably be cautious of welcoming the idea of Gemino attacking us while we're like this, especially when we aren't just feigning having limited supplies, we actually have limited supplies.

Either way, even if Gemino escapes again, that's not the point. He'll lose more lieutenants, and that cripples his organization further. Normally, at that point, a man would go to ground to lick his wounds. But Gemino is like ISIS; his pride won't let him do what is necessary to survive after being hit. 'I am the man who confounded Sulla, and a young Roman shithead is going to do me in? No!' He'll feel the need to back up his words, just like all criminals who publicly challenge law enforcement that way. Only he'll be doing it on short notice, with troops who (even if he gets new recruits from the locals) are demoralized due to defeats and are suffering from a lack of good consistent leadership. From there, it's just a matter of time.

But to make it more than just theory, I'd really like to see some sort of idea of what the area looks like. Can form a more concrete plan that way.
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If you look you can probably find topo maps or something. On the other hand, those won't tell you where the ancient Roman-era villages and forests and whatnot were.
 
Caesar said:
[X] Plan Cunctator
-[X] Castrum Aestiva
-[X] Garrison
-[X] Eliminate the Bandits
--[X] Use the Gauls
--[X] Join the hunt
-[X] Establish Supply Lines
--[X] Pompolussa
-[X] Liberate the Towns
-[X] Connect With Elders
-[X] Study Logistics
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Telamon said:
Yes, that's correct. 3 normal Command Votes, plus a Fourth if you choose to use the Gauls (at the risk of them being, well...the Gauls).
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@Caesar, with this revelation about how the Command Votes work, are you going to modify your plan?

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I am creating (and voting for) a new plan Edit: It seems the plan is ineligible, so I'm returning to original vote.

[old] Plan Gauls, Glory & Cunctator
-[] Castrum Aestiva You keep the camp as it is, a lightly-defended summer camp composed mainly of tents and a thin outer wall. The Ninth are freed to work on other things, and the legion has a place to sleep.
-[] Garrison You send the Sixth to Aquilonia, to garrison the city and protect it for an indeterminate period of time. This will mean effectively losing the Sixth for the next few weeks -- and all the weeks after that, should you choose to continue the garrison.
-[] Eliminate the Bandits You set one of the cohorts to tracking down and eliminating the numerous bandit groups plaguing the hills around Bovianum. There are many places for crafty and cunning natives to hide, and it will no doubt be an arduous task to track down and destroy each group of then.
-[] Defeat the Rebels You continue the hunt for the crafty and wily rebel captain Gemino.
--[] You join the hunt for Gemino yourself (-1 Personal Action)
--[] Use the Gauls: The Gallic Auxiliaries you brought with you have sat back and done little for the last week, largely being used to forage and scavenge for supplies. Their ferocity is both a boon and a drawback -- if they attack or loot the very people you're meant to be protecting, your authority in Bovianum will take a nosedive. (Can Only Be Used Once, Does Not Use Up a Command Vote if Used)
-[] Establish Supply Lines You try again to establish a supply line to Boventum, and you delegate the task to...
--[] Pompolussa assures you he can easily do it, but assigning him here will mean the Second cannot perform any of the many tasks for which it is needed.
-[] Liberate the Towns: You begin sending your forces to the towns and villages around Bovianum, returning then to Roman rule simply by marching into their streets. You order them to resume supplying the city, which should feed Bovianum come winter.
-[] Connect With Elders: The elders of Bovianum are some of the most influental and powerful men in Samnium. By making connections among them, you could shift how you are seen in the eyes of the Samnite people as a whole.
-[] Study Logistics: You read books on planning and organization, hoping to gain greater mastery of logistics and large-scale planning.
 
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Temes1066 said:
@Caesar, with this revelation about how the Command Votes work, are you going to modify your plan?

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I am creating (and voting for) a new plan

[X] Plan Gauls, Glory & Cunctator
-[X] Castrum Aestiva You keep the camp as it is, a lightly-defended summer camp composed mainly of tents and a thin outer wall. The Ninth are freed to work on other things, and the legion has a place to sleep.
-[X] Garrison You send the Sixth to Aquilonia, to garrison the city and protect it for an indeterminate period of time. This will mean effectively losing the Sixth for the next few weeks -- and all the weeks after that, should you choose to continue the garrison.
-[X] Eliminate the Bandits You set one of the cohorts to tracking down and eliminating the numerous bandit groups plaguing the hills around Bovianum. There are many places for crafty and cunning natives to hide, and it will no doubt be an arduous task to track down and destroy each group of then.
-[X] Defeat the Rebels You continue the hunt for the crafty and wily rebel captain Gemino.
--[X] You join the hunt for Gemino yourself (-1 Personal Action)
--[X] Use the Gauls: The Gallic Auxiliaries you brought with you have sat back and done little for the last week, largely being used to forage and scavenge for supplies. Their ferocity is both a boon and a drawback -- if they attack or loot the very people you're meant to be protecting, your authority in Bovianum will take a nosedive. (Can Only Be Used Once, Does Not Use Up a Command Vote if Used)
-[X] Establish Supply Lines You try again to establish a supply line to Boventum, and you delegate the task to...
--[X] Pompolussa assures you he can easily do it, but assigning him here will mean the Second cannot perform any of the many tasks for which it is needed.
-[X] Liberate the Towns: You begin sending your forces to the towns and villages around Bovianum, returning then to Roman rule simply by marching into their streets. You order them to resume supplying the city, which should feed Bovianum come winter.
-[X] Connect With Elders: The elders of Bovianum are some of the most influental and powerful men in Samnium. By making connections among them, you could shift how you are seen in the eyes of the Samnite people as a whole.
-[X] Study Logistics: You read books on planning and organization, hoping to gain greater mastery of logistics and large-scale planning.
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-1 Command vote from picking the Garrison action in Aquilonia.
 
I'm really not comfortable with relying on the Gauls without having brought them into proper discipline. This is going to bite us on the ass, hard.
 
Keeping them together as a single body under our leadership minimizes, but does not eliminate, the possibility of something going badly wrong here, yeah.
 
Yeah, the Gauls are a potential problem, but I would say that the odds of them acting up under our direct command are at least no worse than the chances of them throwing a strop if we leave them malingering around Bovianum with nothing to do. It is still a gamble though.
 
Caesar said:
Yeah, the Gauls are a potential problem, but I would say that the odds of them acting up under our direct command are at least no worse than the chances of them throwing a strop if we leave them malingering around Bovianum with nothing to do. It is still a gamble though.
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Yep. Unfortunately, I don't think we're on track to even approach your namesake's impact on Roman society. We're probably going to fuck up this pacification effort, because SV is only "competent" when it can simply stomp all opposition. :(
 
Godwinson said:
Yep. Unfortunately, I don't think we're on track to even approach your namesake's impact on Roman society. We're probably going to fuck up this pacification effort, because SV is only "competent" when it can simply stomp all opposition. :(
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We're actually doing pretty well, or at least we will be once we get the food situation sorted. Gemino is annoying and scary, and he will have to be dealt with, but he's a secondary concern to keeping Bovianum on side, where we are on track.

(As an aside, there are several instances where if you took a snapshot of Caesar's campaigns his situation would look considerably worse than ours right now.)
 
We can't be "off track" to accomplish something just because you expect us-the-votes to be stupid in the future over something that hasn't happened yet.
 
Godwinson said:
Yep. Unfortunately, I don't think we're on track to even approach your namesake's impact on Roman society. We're probably going to fuck up this pacification effort, because SV is only "competent" when it can simply stomp all opposition. :(
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This is a quest. It's completely possible to take all the right choices, only for the dices to fuck us over everytime.

Besides, the plan is in my opinion sound. Gemino is kind of in a bind. He had declared that every collaborator will get their just deserts and he needs to deliver on that to not lose face.
So, what are we doing? Making Aquilonia support Bovianum which means that he needs to harass both the city and the supply line in order to deliver on his threat.
At the same time we are "liberating" the villages around Bovianum. He needs to punish them as well, or he proves that his words have no meaning behind them. (Especially if we manage to clear the bandit groups raiding them independently from him.)
And last, but not least, he will want to cut the legion's supply, because that is his win condition. He either makes sure that we are forced to leave because of hunger or by inciting a rebellion large enough to expell us.
(Ok, the other possibility is to inflict such dramatic losses that we need to leave or Sertorius recalls us.)

If you ask me, the food supply from the villages won't be enough for Bovianum anyway and our supplies from Beneventum will likely not be enough to keep the city afloat, either. His best bet is probably cutting off the line from Aquilonia.
Or he manages to kill us, that would do the trick. We are however moving with a cavalry unit around the countryside. That could prove to be too difficult for the time being.
 
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Always Late said:
But what about the Greek Prophetess? I MUST HAVE MAH SHINIES!:V
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She's also a Samnite priestess. We've already dealt with a Samnite priestess before, and it wasn't fun.


[X] Plan Cunctator
-[X] Castrum Aestiva
-[X] Garrison
-[X] Eliminate the Bandits
--[X] Use the Gauls
--[X] Join the hunt
-[X] Establish Supply Lines
--[X] Pompolussa
-[X] Liberate the Towns
-[X] Connect With Elders
-[X] Study Logistics
 
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