Kei's follow-up confirms a lot of my broad thinking on what probably is going on with Temeria's politics but I think it basically boils down to something like this (very oversimplified and lacking further context on Temerian politics):
Both the Blacks and Blues are fundamentally imperialists and want to take Caldrein (and others) under their control. I suspect the Blues may be more contented if that "merely" takes the form of a vassal state that is firmly in their orbit even if nominally independent than the Blacks who probably more stubborn on an actual reunification but their overall goal is similar. However, the Blacks take on it is more of a militaristic imperialism where they're throwing their military weight around to cow and out-right conquer the buffer states while the Blues are taking more of a diplomat approach of trying to foster economic ties and relations and get their prospects as tightly interwoven with Temeria's such that they either feel they may as well just join or are otherwise so dependent they can't do much else but protect Temeria's interests (because economically they've become their own as well.) The Blacks sneer on the Blues' approach as cowardly and "sneaky." The Blues sneer at the Blacks' approach as primitive and short-sighted.
It sounds like the Blues had been working a decades long game to capture Caldrein in such a manner when the hunting grounds disputes occurred. The Blacks controlled the government at that moment and chose to escalate it to a full-blown war. Why? Hard to say for sure, but I'd guess they saw it as a way to boost their standing within Temeria by achieving an "easy" military conquest of long-lost territory that was a sore spot for them nationally that or just nationalist/populist "return to the 'good old days'" stuff. The Blues are infuriated because an actual war blows up their long game on Caldrein and from their perspective will just siphon resources off from their other fronts when they felt they had this one in hand. And also because if the Blacks are successful it will disadvantage them politically of course.
Well, conquering Caldrein isn't so easy (whether this is more the Blacks overestimating their power or underestimating Caldrein) and the war drags out. Flash-forward to the Interlude where Eustachia - who is being portrayed, at least by the General - as the hidden power behind the Blues meets with her Caldrein counterpart and learns that Caldrein and Ornthalia have entered talks that would see an Ornthalian army enter Caldrein. We see as she immediately tries to construct a timeline and figure out where they are on it to determine when such an army could enter Caldrein and that essentially becomes her deadline to end the war because, in no particular order: this could mean the cold war may turn hot, that the meager gains they've gotten over a decade of war could be wiped out, and that Caldrein falls irreversibly into an Ornthalia vassal state.
Presumably she takes this info back to Temeria and it helps the Blues retake the government and presumably immediately enact steps to negotiate an end to the war with Caldrein before Ornthalia can step in and settle for only taking what the General took in Elspar. In the meantime, however, the General succeeds in taking Halissen which is where the conversation between the two above takes on a philosophical debate between the two factions
The General sees the victory at Halissen as, well, a victory because she views the campaign purely as a military campaign between Temeria and Caldrein. While the news of possible Ornthalian intervention takes her off guard, her response is along the lines of "Well, that just means we have to win this militarily before then and you should give me everything I ask for to make that possible." Josephine, however, is frustrated because she sees it more as winning the battle but losing the war. Her attacking the General over the refugee crisis the fall of Halissen caused isn't out of altruism to the refugees, but from the angle of "Well, now you've created a humanitarian crisis that could very well galvanize Ornthalian interventionists by giving them something big to point to as a reason to hurry forward with 'humanitarian aid'" as well as harden many Caldrein opinions on Temeria and make them more open to receiving said help - pushing them into that orbit. It may aid in their seeking to force Caldrein to accept an end of the war and loss of territory or it could accelerate those talks with Ornthalia and realize her worst fears.
Given how fraught Caldrein's political system is, Josephine and the Blues may even have a point here. It's entirely possible that Caldrein may have collapsed in on itself given a few more pushes, and if the Blues were successful in establishing tighter ties with the emerging Caldrein mercantile class may have been well positioned to take advantage. They may even have been using their own rise to prominence as a model for capturing Caldrein.
Both the Blacks and Blues are fundamentally imperialists and want to take Caldrein (and others) under their control. I suspect the Blues may be more contented if that "merely" takes the form of a vassal state that is firmly in their orbit even if nominally independent than the Blacks who probably more stubborn on an actual reunification but their overall goal is similar. However, the Blacks take on it is more of a militaristic imperialism where they're throwing their military weight around to cow and out-right conquer the buffer states while the Blues are taking more of a diplomat approach of trying to foster economic ties and relations and get their prospects as tightly interwoven with Temeria's such that they either feel they may as well just join or are otherwise so dependent they can't do much else but protect Temeria's interests (because economically they've become their own as well.) The Blacks sneer on the Blues' approach as cowardly and "sneaky." The Blues sneer at the Blacks' approach as primitive and short-sighted.
It sounds like the Blues had been working a decades long game to capture Caldrein in such a manner when the hunting grounds disputes occurred. The Blacks controlled the government at that moment and chose to escalate it to a full-blown war. Why? Hard to say for sure, but I'd guess they saw it as a way to boost their standing within Temeria by achieving an "easy" military conquest of long-lost territory that was a sore spot for them nationally that or just nationalist/populist "return to the 'good old days'" stuff. The Blues are infuriated because an actual war blows up their long game on Caldrein and from their perspective will just siphon resources off from their other fronts when they felt they had this one in hand. And also because if the Blacks are successful it will disadvantage them politically of course.
Well, conquering Caldrein isn't so easy (whether this is more the Blacks overestimating their power or underestimating Caldrein) and the war drags out. Flash-forward to the Interlude where Eustachia - who is being portrayed, at least by the General - as the hidden power behind the Blues meets with her Caldrein counterpart and learns that Caldrein and Ornthalia have entered talks that would see an Ornthalian army enter Caldrein. We see as she immediately tries to construct a timeline and figure out where they are on it to determine when such an army could enter Caldrein and that essentially becomes her deadline to end the war because, in no particular order: this could mean the cold war may turn hot, that the meager gains they've gotten over a decade of war could be wiped out, and that Caldrein falls irreversibly into an Ornthalia vassal state.
Presumably she takes this info back to Temeria and it helps the Blues retake the government and presumably immediately enact steps to negotiate an end to the war with Caldrein before Ornthalia can step in and settle for only taking what the General took in Elspar. In the meantime, however, the General succeeds in taking Halissen which is where the conversation between the two above takes on a philosophical debate between the two factions
The General sees the victory at Halissen as, well, a victory because she views the campaign purely as a military campaign between Temeria and Caldrein. While the news of possible Ornthalian intervention takes her off guard, her response is along the lines of "Well, that just means we have to win this militarily before then and you should give me everything I ask for to make that possible." Josephine, however, is frustrated because she sees it more as winning the battle but losing the war. Her attacking the General over the refugee crisis the fall of Halissen caused isn't out of altruism to the refugees, but from the angle of "Well, now you've created a humanitarian crisis that could very well galvanize Ornthalian interventionists by giving them something big to point to as a reason to hurry forward with 'humanitarian aid'" as well as harden many Caldrein opinions on Temeria and make them more open to receiving said help - pushing them into that orbit. It may aid in their seeking to force Caldrein to accept an end of the war and loss of territory or it could accelerate those talks with Ornthalia and realize her worst fears.
Given how fraught Caldrein's political system is, Josephine and the Blues may even have a point here. It's entirely possible that Caldrein may have collapsed in on itself given a few more pushes, and if the Blues were successful in establishing tighter ties with the emerging Caldrein mercantile class may have been well positioned to take advantage. They may even have been using their own rise to prominence as a model for capturing Caldrein.
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