The Lonely Lioness - Cersei Lannister Quest

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Retired Explorer said:
Yeah, no. The simple fact is that Tywin will do his damnedest to marginalize Cersei so submitting to him is game over. Furthermore, his enemies would give us two kingdoms while ha can only give us one and his plot to murder Robb has already failed given that the "loyalist" northern houses failled to arrest him.​
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Why would our enemies give us two kingdoms?! If you have any doubts that Walder and Roose are working for Tywin I have a keep without a wall to sell you in the Riverlands. Edmure Tully right now offers us 2k foot and 2k mixed cavalry that we can't even unite with the Royal Host because of the political clusterfuck. What we have in the field, even if Edmure's host cooperates with Joffrey's simply isn't enough to reliable beat Caern without taking losses that render it unfit for further battles.

Of course begging Tywin is shit but the situation is desperate. The best bet right now is to try to placate Tywin a bit and hope he stays in the field to win some breathing room in King's Landing. For now he leads armies in the field and he needs Joffrey who is listening to us (hopefully).
 
Anchises said:
Why would our enemies give us two kingdoms?!
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They are Tywin's enemies not ours. In fact, Edmure is relying on the authority we have given him (as the hand of the king) to reach safety.
Anchises said:
If you have any doubts that Walder and Roose are working for Tywin I have a keep without a wall to sell you in the Riverlands.
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I, sincerely, do not know how you reached this conclusion.

Anchises said:
Edmure Tully right now offers us 2k foot and 2k mixed cavalry that we can't even unite with the Royal Host because of the political clusterfuck. What we have in the field, even if Edmure's host cooperates with Joffrey's simply isn't enough to reliable beat Caern without taking losses that render it unfit for further battles.
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And, on the other hand, Tywin is in no position to reinforce the Royal host because if his host leaves Harrenhal then Robb and his allies can march unhindered towards King's Landing. So, we can either choose to get some reinforcements or none at all.

Anchises said:
Of course begging Tywin is shit but the situation is desperate. The best bet right now is to try to placate Tywin a bit and hope he stays in the field to win some breathing room in King's Landing. For now he leads armies in the field and he needs Joffrey who is listening to us (hopefully).
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We can not placate Tywin "a bit". He doesn't want to depose Joffrey, but, we should still treat him as a pretender because anything less than giving him the regency won't placate him. Tywin doesn't see Cersei as an equal, not even as a pawn on the board, he sees her as a placeholder for him. The best outcome from submitting to Tywin is that he wins (thus destabilizing two kingdoms and starting a war with the Vale) and then throws Cersei to the maiden vault.
 
Retired Explorer said:
They are Tywin's enemies not ours. In fact, Edmure is relying on the authority we have given him (as the hand of the king) to reach safety.
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Exactly! Edmure completely relies on what authority we can give him. He brings nothing to the table basically. And we don't have much militarily or money wise to back him up.

And why are Roose Bolton and Walder Frey Tywin's enemies? Both are like cold opportunists.


Retired Explorer said:
I, sincerely, do not know how you reached this conclusion.
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I mean my most overwhelming piece of evidence is that they didn't even bother to send a DM. They marched off declared for the crown and send no Raven to KL? Who claims to work for the Crown and is near them? Tywin.

Tywin actually has the troops and coin and political elbow room to make them serious offers.


Tywin can actually offer Walder Frey the Lord Paramountcy of the Riverlands. We can't because we are stuck with the Tully's who completely lost their grasp on the Riverlands.

Tywin can actually offer the Lord Paramountcy of the North by defeating Robb Stark. He has the army to do that. Lord Rykker meanwhwile is weak and stuck in Duskendale.


Retired Explorer said:
And, on the other hand, Tywin is in no position to reinforce the Royal host because if his host leaves Harrenhal then Robb and his allies can march unhindered towards King's Landing. So, we can either choose to get some reinforcements or none at all.
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The 3000 heavy horse Joffrey has come from Tywin. Joffrey just commandered them. Tywin undoubtedly has more troops to spare than the political unreliable smattering Edmund brings to the table.


And who is gonna march on KL? Robb who's campaign just went up in smoke? The Northern rebel host (that Tywin can get under control or has already done so).


Retired Explorer said:
We can not placate Tywin "a bit". He doesn't want to depose Joffrey, but, we should still treat him as a pretender because anything less than giving him the regency won't placate him. Tywin doesn't see Cersei as an equal, not even as a pawn on the board, he sees her as a placeholder for him. The best outcome from submitting to Tywin is that he wins (thus destabilizing two kingdoms and starting a war with the Vale) and then throws Cersei to the maiden vault.
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Yes we are in a bad situation. With Tywin we have some leverage however. He is pretty much the only real asset we have. Joffrey still trusts us and we control KL and the Crownlands. That will allow us to avoid total marginalization and keep us alive.
 
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[X] Plan: Go Hide Under Casterly Rock
-[X] [Maidenpool] Give your agreement to Joffreys plans of linking up with Rykkers host to strike at Caern Targaryen.
-[X] [Duskendale] Confirm Edmure Tullys position as Hand in writing and that he has command of the army there.
-[X] [Harrenhal] Throw your weight behind Hoster Tullys order for Tywin to leave Harrenhal.
-[X] [Oldtown] Do not give your consent to having the High Septon replaced.
-[X] [Dragonstone Ransom] Offer a more reasonable ransom for both of them.
-[X] [Dragonstone Toll] Offer Aukar Brightfyre the legitimate Lordship of Dragonstone in exchange for bending the knee to King Joffrey Baratheon. As lord, he may extract normal merchant fees per the customs of Westeros.

Crushing Caern Targaryen is an essential move at this stage, if we're to reorient towards Stannis. In that vein, we'll trust that Joffery indeed knows what he's doing. Our aid to him will be to take Brightfyre right out of the war, and to legitimze his choices of Hand and his order that Tywin leave.

There's no reason to get rid of our good friend the High Septon at this stage. So what if he's a corrupt fool? Loyal corrupt fools are good enough.

Finally, I know there may be objection to legitimizing a dragonspawn, but if there's anywhere we can get away with it, it's Dragonstone. Joffery can be considered the lawful holder of the title by our reckoning (with some creative accounting on Shireen), so he has the right to give it away in exchange for loyalty. This will sever all support to Caern and maximize the chances of victory on the field.
 
I don't understand why people think the battle against Caern Targaryen is a sure thing they are willing to bet on with Edmure Tully in charge.

And why should Tywin listen to an order we can't possibly enforce?
 
[X] Plan: Go Hide Under Casterly Rock

I agree that Pycelle should die, preferably in a more painful way than just being smothered in his sleep. Regarding the business with the High Septon, I agree that we should keep him around, but we should also try to open up a dialogue with the Most Devout to see if we can offer up any other concessions to keep them content for the time being. The last time we need is a revolt in the Faith. Maybe we could stall for time, saying that we are willing to consider a replacement for the High Septon when the realm isn't tearing itself apart.
 
Anchises said:
And why are Roose Bolton and Walder Frey Tywin's enemies? Both are like cold opportunists.
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Are we having the same conversation? I'm not talking about Frey or Bolton, I haven't even mentioned them, neither did you mention them in the post I was answering to. Tywin's enemies are the Tullys and the Starks.

Anchises said:
I mean my most overwhelming piece of evidence is that they didn't even bother to send a DM. They marched off declared for the crown and send no Raven to KL? Who claims to work for the Crown and is near them? Tywin.
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The conclusion I was talking about was the fact that you, for some reason, said that I doubted Walder and Bolton are working with Tywin. The post you answered to literally says the opposite, here:
Retired Explorer said:
his plot to murder Robb has already failed given that the "loyalist" northern houses failed to arrest him.
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Also:
Anchises said:
Tywin can actually offer Walder Frey the Lord Paramountcy of the Riverlands. We can't because we are stuck with the Tully's who completely lost their grasp on the Riverlands.
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This is a load of assumptions. There's no mention of the Tullys losing their army and, as such, they still pose a threat. Only two of the royalist houses mentioned are from the Riverlands (Bracken and Frey), as such, we should assume that the other 20 or so houses are still loyal to Tully.
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Anchises said:
And who is gonna march on KL? Robb who's campaign just went up in smoke? The Northern rebel host (that Tywin can get under control or has already done so).
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Tywin can only be in one place at a time so if he has to deal with the Northern rebels then he can't deal with the Tragaryen pretender.

Anchises said:
Yes we are in a bad situation. With Tywin we have some leverage however. He is pretty much the only real asset we have. Joffrey still trusts us and we control KL and the Crownlands. That will allow us to avoid total marginalization and keep us alive.
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Tywin is not an asset, it is a known fact that Joffrey (in canon) ordered Stark's execution against Cersei's orders (so we can't order him) and our control of KL and the Crownlands is being threatened by two Targaryen pretenders.

Again, I must also reiterate that Tywin won't allow Cersei any kind of power and the only way to make peace with him is by abdicating the regency in his favour.
 
Hence, as suggested, perhaps Cersei should consider... preparing the funerary rites for her father. It is such a dangerous time, any number of... fatal disasters could befall Tywin in the field.
 
Retired Explorer said:
Are we having the same conversation? I'm not talking about Frey or Bolton, I haven't even mentioned them, neither did you mention them in the post I was answering to. Tywin's enemies are the Tullys and the Starks.
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The Starks have virtually no reason to march on KL and half the Northern Host just mutinied. How or why would they march on the capital? As to the Tully's:

Retired Explorer said:
This is a load of assumptions. There's no mention of the Tullys losing their army and, as such, they still pose a threat. Only two of the royalist houses mentioned are from the Riverlands (Bracken and Frey), as such, we should assume that the other 20 or so houses are still loyal to Tully.
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The Riverlands - Chaos and Death
The Riverlands are in turmoil as a host under command of Gregor Clegane is pushing through the southern Riverlands, leaving empty villages and disfigured corpses in his wake. At first the indentiy of the brigand was disputed, but a proclamation of the Iron Throne has removed all doubt that it is indeed the bannerman of House Lannister who is leading this effort. In his rampage, the dealt a major defeat to the hastily raised forces of the Riverlands under Brynden Tully and was said to have killed Lord Beric Dondarion who had been sent months ago to apprehend him. His forces are still harassed by smaller warbands, but for now nothing seems to be able to stop him.

The Riverlands are a stomping ground for several armies some of them stronger than what the Tully's could muster given time and optimal circumstances. The Mountain already crushed the hastily raised Tully levies. With Tywin parked in Harrenhal and the Freys and the Bracken's in open rebellion, forcing Edmund to flee yet again what he currently has probably is the lion's share of what the Tully's can realistically muster. There is likely a garrison in Riverrun and some quasi-independent warbands nominally aligned with the Tully's but I don't see how you think the Tully's could gather another large host under the circumstances. Those bannermen that don't outright support the Freys or hide behind their walls defending their holdings have nowhere to gather safely without being crushed. And I sincerely doubt many would honestly wanna come when the Tully's are basically defeated already.

Retired Explorer said:
Tywin can only be in one place at a time so if he has to deal with the Northern rebels then he can't deal with the Tragaryen pretender.
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Yeah he can deal with them by buying them off? Why would Roose Bolton and Walder Frey fight Tywin Lannister. Like we are talking about Roose Bolton and Walder Frey?
 
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Anchises said:
The Starks have virtually no reason to march on KL and half the Northern Host just mutinied. How or why would they march on the capital?
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The northeners that mutinied tried to imprison Robb. The reason why they would march on King's Landing is because we are their enemies.

Anchises said:
The Mountain already crushed the hastily raised Tully levies.
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Okay, fair point, the Tullys have no army.

Anchises said:
Yeah he can deal with them by buying them off? Why would Roose Bolton and Walder Frey fight Tywin Lannister. Like we are talking about Roose Bolton and Walder Frey?
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Right now, there are two northern hosts: Robb's host and the Royalists (Bolton and their lot). Presumably, the royalists have already been bought by Tywin but the other host, most likely, can't be bought. Both hosts are "dimenished" but neither is defeated.
 
Mind that "the Riverlands" still have an army. It's just split between the Frey / Bolton host, the Stark host, Edmure and likely other scattered warbands. You best source of intel here remains Sandor Clegane, who is in the eastern parts, so you are fairly blind to details in the western Riverlands.
 
Retired Explorer said:
The northeners that mutinied tried to imprison Robb. The reason why they would march on King's Landing is because we are their enemies.
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They literally declared themselves for the Crown and tried to imprison Robb Stark....who is in active rebellion against us. Like the Northern/Riverland rebels aren't working for us, as I said they are likely working for Tywin, but I don't see any reason for them to march on KL. Like its fairly obvious what the Freys and Boltons want as eternal Nr. 2 houses.

Retired Explorer said:
Right now, there are two northern hosts: Robb's host and the Royalists (Bolton and their lot). Presumably, the royalists have already been bought by Tywin but the other host, most likely, can't be bought. Both hosts are "dimenished" but neither is defeated.
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Yes exactly so neither is in any condition to march on KL giving Tywin freedom to maneuver if he desires. Neither one of them has a reason to want that. Neither Walder senior, nor Roose nor Robb want to conquer the Iron Throne.
 
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The North is clearly falling into civil war, so their threat is massively diminished. Actually getting control of the North back is a stretch goal at best.

Ironically, Joffery and Caern are the ones in a similar position - they need to gain swift victories for the sake of legitimacy. Crushing one Targ and making another kneel will gain some badly needed legitimacy.

Conflict of some nature is inevitable with Tywin, but thankfully Joffery doesn't seem to be taking shit from him and literally stole some of his bannermen. Tywin won't openly rebel against Joffery, at least not at this stage of things, so we can force him into expending strength for us.

Joffery has already begun setting the Tullys as loyalists, so even in their weakened position we need to secure that alliance. A weak host is better than none, and the Tullys have the benefit of legitimacy.
 
Anchises said:
They literally declared themselves for the Crown and tried to imprison Robb Stark....who is in active rebellion against us. Like the Northern/Riverland rebels aren't working for us, as I said they are likely working for Tywin, but I don't see any reason for them to march on KL. Like its fairly obvious what the Freys and Boltons want as eternal Nr. 2 houses.
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Let me explain:
  1. Bolton tries to imprison Robb in the name of the Iron Throne.
  2. Robb successfully avoids being imprisoned.
  3. Now Robb thinks that the Iron Throne tried to imprison him.
  4. Noone knows that Tywin is not acting in the name of the crown, as such, all his actions are interpreted as the Iron Throne's actions.
  5. Even if Robb were to know that Bolton is acting on behalf of Tywin, Robb would still think that Tywin is acting on behalf of the Iron Throne.
  6. Following this logic, Robb can only conclude that the Iron Throne tried to imprison him.
As such, Robb directly disobeyed an order that (he thinks) comes directly from the Iron Throne. Disobeying the Iron Throne means rebelling against the Iron Throne.

MSH said:
Conflict of some nature is inevitable with Tywin, but thankfully Joffery doesn't seem to be taking shit from him and literally stole some of his bannermen. Tywin won't openly rebel against Joffery, at least not at this stage of things, so we can force him into expending strength for us.

Joffery has already begun setting the Tullys as loyalists, so even in their weakened position we need to secure that alliance. A weak host is better than none, and the Tullys have the benefit of legitimacy.
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The problem here is that siding with Tywin would automatically make the Tullys disloyal. As the QM has said, we must choose a side.
 
That's my point. We can (and should) side with the Tullys, and Tywin still pretty much has to play the game. He's not in a position to fight literally every side alone, no matter the strength of the Lannister host. You pretty much have to break Tywin's back in order to make him kneel, but kneel he will. For that matter, Joffery's little stunt just proved that Tywin can't rely too heavily on the host either.

If Tywin is foolish enough to fight us, so be it. We can actually get something done without his domineering behavior.
 
Either plan is fine with me. We need to back Edmure and rebuke Tywin. We cannot afford to get in a war with the Riverlands and North, which Tywin will absolutely do, and take all Cerseis power besides.

Edmure, on the other hand, relies on Cersei and Jofferys support to retain the Handship, and together with Rykkers force has a good chance of winning this coming battle.

Bolton and Frey I gotta roll my eyes at, we obviously can't trust them. Use them up and throw them away at best.
 
Looking over the leading plan, I noticed that I should probably point out that Cersei does not believe that Tywin will take any orders from her. Ordering him to leave is about publicly siding with the Tullys on this issue, not any expectation that Tywin will actually leave.
 
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