WI: SARS‑CoV‑2 surfaces two years early

[Silent Runner]

Suppose that SARS‑CoV‑2 makes the jump to humans in late 2017 and spreads across the world from there the way it did IOTL. At this point, the GOP still controls both houses of Congress, so it's safe to assume that they would completely bungle the response even worse than IOTL. How would the rest of the world be affected?

 

[waito_x]

This is a great question. Without broaching on current events and tensions, I will skirt any replay of political fallout and instead ask how far along into China's US-backed WTO induction (which was approved under Clinton) does 2017 situate as opposed to Northern Hemisphere's winter 2019?

 

[SaintSummerisle]

Honestly it wouldn't go much different. The same special interests that inhibit a proper response are at play. An interesting point is that the 2020 democratic primaries were closer-run than is often thought, and an earlier COVID could easily swing things into the Sanders camp.

Tbh "what if [plague] showed up at a different time" TLs are only really interesting if its built into a more focused narrative, eg the leadup to a civil war plotline, because even if you have VERY detailed disease vectors they're likely to be boring unless they're fucking up an interesting and dynamic era that coulda gone a bunch of ways. But the present zeitgeist is creeping inevitability, so...

 

[waito_x]

An interesting point is that the 2020 democratic primaries were closer-run than is often thought, and an earlier COVID could easily swing things into the Sanders camp.

Click to shrink...

I want to reinforce this stance, owing to a previous episode in American presidential campaigns. When FDR was about to take the reigns in 1932, he was concluding a term as NY governor. Some cite a rivalry between his camp and fellow New York State Governor Al Smith (1928 and 1932 seats) could have derailed the New Deal and otherwise thrown out or shifted ballots in that state. This started before the actual election, early into the Primaries.

Imagine how the 2016 Democratic primary contenders would have jumped wholesale on trying to derail the Trump administration, given the notion that Trump was only one year into his term by this pre-emptive Covid occurence. Would it have gained any momentum?

P.S. I like how the first responses to this thread are NGE avatar-based. Let's go!

 

[Dab master]

I feel like given current events Trump would have still sent out stimulus and all that as well as endorsing the vaccine and ratcheting up culture war attacks on blue cities and states. The Dems probably still take the House and such fueled more by a backlash over Covid than over decorum. Trump leans into anti-Chinese stuff more and may pay attention long enough to really ramp up the trade war with China, which combined with Covid and its aftershocks means a shaky global economy.
Going into 2020 Covid would most likely be pushed aside as the main issue by the economy, I assume the murder of George Floyd would be butterflied and another police murder being filmed so clearly and being so utterly public and blatant seems unlikely to happen at the same time. So the Dems mostly hit Trump with the economy stick and decorum remarks rather than Covid and "this guy openly wanted to use the military to kill American citizens" arguments. The Dems playing field may be different, the moderates still lacked a clear champion and would fight but would Obama still intervene and ensure a Biden victory? Don't know.
Now internationally China still faces a popularity hit from Covid but still manages the disease itself and its economy well. The Chinese US trade war would just accelerate Chinese plans to build more trade links with the global south. Covid is probably still damaging to the Indian state due to the simple inefficiency and corruption of the state. The global economy is bad not only from Covid, but the US-Chinese trade war and possible trade proxy wars.