- Location
- Leng Plateau
Inspired by recent events in Venezuela, strangely enough.
As I am certain most here know, in October 1993 the nascent Russian Federation was in the grip of a major political crisis that threatened to escalate into civil war. The previous month, President Yeltsin had dissolved the Russian legislature (the Congress of People's Deputies & the Supreme Soviet) in response to months of power struggle between them; as this was technically illegal under the then-current Russian constitution, the Supreme Soviet impeached Yeltsin and declared Vice President Alexander Rutskoy the acting president of Russia. As the crisis worsened, strikes and protests broke out across the nation, while in Moscow armed supporters of both sides clashed openly in the streets, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Ultimately the Russian military chose to side with Yeltsin's government, the Russian parliament was famously bombarded by loyalist T-80s, and the rebellion was crushed.
So, with that in mind, brainstorm a way for the Black October crisis to escalate into a full-blown Second Russian Civil War. What would it have taken for a greater split between pro-Yeltsin and pro-Congress to develop in the Russian military than IOTL? Some units/individuals allegedly did attempt to join the pro-Congress protesters, but by and large those attempts were quashed from what I recall.
What sides would a 1990s Russian civil war have, aside from the two competing governments? I would think that you would see Chechnya and perhaps other Muslim Caucasian republics attempt to secede a tad earlier than OTL, and perhaps other republics that flirted with independence (such as Tatarstan, IIRC) might attempt to carve out their own fiefdoms in the chaos?
What affects would the outbreak of civil war have on the "near abroad," the other post-Soviet states? Presumably they would bear the brunt of the inevitable refugee crisis. Might they see spillover fighting from the war in Russia? How would OTL post-Soviet conflicts such as the already-raging civil war in Tajikistan and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan be affected?
How would the other world powers (here defined as the US, the PRC, and the major Western European nations) react to the outbreak of civil war? I assume the US would continue to diplomatically support Yeltsin's government as IOTL, but might China attempt to aid another side?
What about nuclear weapons? Would Yeltsin's government be able to maintain control of Russia's nuclear arsenal, or could rebel factions gain access to atomic weaponry? IIRC Soviet nukes had not been completely withdrawn from Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan by 1993; what happens to them? I would assume that the US and other powers would do anything they could to speed their removal/destruction, but might the former SSRs attempt to retain a nuclear deterrent in response to the ongoing fighting in Russia?
As I am certain most here know, in October 1993 the nascent Russian Federation was in the grip of a major political crisis that threatened to escalate into civil war. The previous month, President Yeltsin had dissolved the Russian legislature (the Congress of People's Deputies & the Supreme Soviet) in response to months of power struggle between them; as this was technically illegal under the then-current Russian constitution, the Supreme Soviet impeached Yeltsin and declared Vice President Alexander Rutskoy the acting president of Russia. As the crisis worsened, strikes and protests broke out across the nation, while in Moscow armed supporters of both sides clashed openly in the streets, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Ultimately the Russian military chose to side with Yeltsin's government, the Russian parliament was famously bombarded by loyalist T-80s, and the rebellion was crushed.
So, with that in mind, brainstorm a way for the Black October crisis to escalate into a full-blown Second Russian Civil War. What would it have taken for a greater split between pro-Yeltsin and pro-Congress to develop in the Russian military than IOTL? Some units/individuals allegedly did attempt to join the pro-Congress protesters, but by and large those attempts were quashed from what I recall.
What sides would a 1990s Russian civil war have, aside from the two competing governments? I would think that you would see Chechnya and perhaps other Muslim Caucasian republics attempt to secede a tad earlier than OTL, and perhaps other republics that flirted with independence (such as Tatarstan, IIRC) might attempt to carve out their own fiefdoms in the chaos?
What affects would the outbreak of civil war have on the "near abroad," the other post-Soviet states? Presumably they would bear the brunt of the inevitable refugee crisis. Might they see spillover fighting from the war in Russia? How would OTL post-Soviet conflicts such as the already-raging civil war in Tajikistan and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan be affected?
How would the other world powers (here defined as the US, the PRC, and the major Western European nations) react to the outbreak of civil war? I assume the US would continue to diplomatically support Yeltsin's government as IOTL, but might China attempt to aid another side?
What about nuclear weapons? Would Yeltsin's government be able to maintain control of Russia's nuclear arsenal, or could rebel factions gain access to atomic weaponry? IIRC Soviet nukes had not been completely withdrawn from Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan by 1993; what happens to them? I would assume that the US and other powers would do anything they could to speed their removal/destruction, but might the former SSRs attempt to retain a nuclear deterrent in response to the ongoing fighting in Russia?
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