On January 1, 2019, all of North America up to the southern Panama border (including the...
WI: 2019 North America ISOTed to 1492
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AYC
Make blunts not bombs
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On January 1, 2019, all of North America up to the southern Panama border (including the Caribbean) is ISOTed to January 1, 1492.
What sort of world results from this? How does a large-scale ISOT like this affect the development of the rest of the world? What will Europe think of a land from the future arriving at the dawn of the Age of Exploration?
What sort of world results from this? How does a large-scale ISOT like this affect the development of the rest of the world? What will Europe think of a land from the future arriving at the dawn of the Age of Exploration?
Bill Falsename
Not a pseudonym.
- Location
- Michigan
Mass outbreaks of small pox, nobody is being immunized for it any more.
Manifest Destiny 2.0: Over 9000 Age of Imperialism boogaloo. What else it could be?
Honestly, this kind of ISOT is boring. Not only it is OP, it lack any novelty value. If it was to fantasy world they were transported to, or it was a non-western/first world countries that got transported it may the at least have something interesting going even with the OPness.
Honestly, this kind of ISOT is boring. Not only it is OP, it lack any novelty value. If it was to fantasy world they were transported to, or it was a non-western/first world countries that got transported it may the at least have something interesting going even with the OPness.
Immediate use of military assets by the US and Canada to secure valuable resources worldwide, especially oil in the Middle East. Practical economic lockdown (a collapse worse than 2008, or even 1929, as almost all international assets and supply chains can be considered indefinitely lost), likely lasting for years, with no full recovery until large parts of the world can be considered "developed." Isolated parts of all countries, including the US, may experience loss of phone connectivity, internet access and even electricity for a time due to the scarcity of resources and lack of North American manufacturing. Major lawsuits over how to handle foreign assets in the ISOTed countries, such as gold in the NYSE.
American food surpluses being sold to modern Latin America. American goods and job training being sent to Latin America. Latin America generally ascending to a higher standard of living, since they are the only population capable of using and developing modern technology. Incidentally, crime is lowered because much of the money and supplies used by drug cartels is cut off, though the individuals involved my still involve themselves in protection rackets or actual politics. After decades, the likely formation of a "North American Union," which may (depending on the fate of the US) supercede the US federal government. Former US territories will almost certainly be the dominant party, especially shortly after the ISOT. Large reduction in atheism and of secular thought; because such an event would be unusual by the standards of all Abrahamic faiths, there may be an uptick in Paganism. If so, this will be strongly contested by religious figures; many of the freedoms that we see in the US (ranging from "open and successful atheist" to "openly LGBT") may be curtailed by a religious revival (whether in law or in fact), as the ISOT should be impossible according to all modern physics. Related rise of "self-sufficiency"/survivalism, especially as related to religion.
Canada especially suffers from the Little Ice Age, and may suffer a migration south early on. The early winner will be the United States, which will likely be supplying food and aid to some Latin American countries. This may change to Mexico. Exactly what will happen is difficult to say; without a modern Britain and with most of the population migrating south, the Canadian provinces may become US territories and isolated Caribbean islands (and Panama) may petition to become US states. Alternatively, the extensive use of fossil fuels may reverse the Little Ice Age and allow a lightly-populated, mineral and oil-rich Canada to become a global power.
Columbus arrives in 1492 and is greeted by people speaking uncannily-mangled versions of familiar tongues. A few months later, his three ships arrive arrive better-sealed than when they left, with the crew the healthiest they've ever been and carrying some odd books, detailing such things as how to avoid scurvy and basic radio design. The actual impacts of North America will likely be felt on North America's terms; all immigrants will be considered low-skilled and unable to speak the native language (at this point, even English is somewhere between Shakespear and Chaucer).
South America will see a large influx of anthropologists, archaeologists and biologists. It's exact fate will depend on what they find. The Uyuni Salt Flat is colonized for the lithium; there would be limited ethics concerns, as the area would be largely uninhabited.
Mass export of Latin American Catholicism and United States Protestantism to the world, especially Europe. This may exacerbate religious conflicts; however, the ISOTed countries may attempt to intercede on behalf of peace. This may or may not succeed. If there is an anti-Muslim backlash, the Middle East (and especially Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem, the latter becoming the capitol of a new Israel) may be conquered. At a minimum, the Arab slave trade will be halted, and African slavery stillborn. Depending on investment, Mali and Ethiopia may become African superpowers. Newer flu and cold varieties, COVID-19 (depending on the date of ISOT), and HIV are all likely to be spread over the 16th century. Large quantities of pagan folklore from Eastern Europe and Scandanavia are collected, as are lost classics from Timbuktu. New crops and management techniques, plus things like radio-based weather forecasting and actual knowledge of hygiene, allows for a population boom wherever there is North American influence. Outside of American spheres of influence, however, the new technology creates new opportunities for war and strife. Additionally, North American corporations may or may not monopolize the spice trade. This may or may not occur is Southeast Asia.
Europe is in a prime position to become even more powerful than it had been, by virtue of semi-similar culture, language and attitude. However, the religious strife and conflict may limit this; Italy and Germany were a patchwork of small feuding states, and even Wales, Scotland, and Britain were technically independent of each other at this time. This may lead to economic sabotage, or outright war; kings and nobles will be certain to try to preserve their power, and most of Europe will be in no state to unify. The lack of relief valves for religious dissidents, however, will likely exacerbate European tensions. The Ming Dynasty was still strong at this time, so China might be a strong contender for 2nd place in world dominance, provided the bureaucracy can adapt. In that event, they would likely take Japan (then in civil war), Korea, parts of Southeast Asia, Mongolia, and possibly North to Kamchatka.
By... whom, exactly? Against who? And why? And how would they rule? And how would the massive logistic trains that support modern technology be sustained? How would knowledge about the impact of imperialism affect this scenario? What about penicillin and other drugs?
American food surpluses being sold to modern Latin America. American goods and job training being sent to Latin America. Latin America generally ascending to a higher standard of living, since they are the only population capable of using and developing modern technology. Incidentally, crime is lowered because much of the money and supplies used by drug cartels is cut off, though the individuals involved my still involve themselves in protection rackets or actual politics. After decades, the likely formation of a "North American Union," which may (depending on the fate of the US) supercede the US federal government. Former US territories will almost certainly be the dominant party, especially shortly after the ISOT. Large reduction in atheism and of secular thought; because such an event would be unusual by the standards of all Abrahamic faiths, there may be an uptick in Paganism. If so, this will be strongly contested by religious figures; many of the freedoms that we see in the US (ranging from "open and successful atheist" to "openly LGBT") may be curtailed by a religious revival (whether in law or in fact), as the ISOT should be impossible according to all modern physics. Related rise of "self-sufficiency"/survivalism, especially as related to religion.
Canada especially suffers from the Little Ice Age, and may suffer a migration south early on. The early winner will be the United States, which will likely be supplying food and aid to some Latin American countries. This may change to Mexico. Exactly what will happen is difficult to say; without a modern Britain and with most of the population migrating south, the Canadian provinces may become US territories and isolated Caribbean islands (and Panama) may petition to become US states. Alternatively, the extensive use of fossil fuels may reverse the Little Ice Age and allow a lightly-populated, mineral and oil-rich Canada to become a global power.
Columbus arrives in 1492 and is greeted by people speaking uncannily-mangled versions of familiar tongues. A few months later, his three ships arrive arrive better-sealed than when they left, with the crew the healthiest they've ever been and carrying some odd books, detailing such things as how to avoid scurvy and basic radio design. The actual impacts of North America will likely be felt on North America's terms; all immigrants will be considered low-skilled and unable to speak the native language (at this point, even English is somewhere between Shakespear and Chaucer).
South America will see a large influx of anthropologists, archaeologists and biologists. It's exact fate will depend on what they find. The Uyuni Salt Flat is colonized for the lithium; there would be limited ethics concerns, as the area would be largely uninhabited.
Mass export of Latin American Catholicism and United States Protestantism to the world, especially Europe. This may exacerbate religious conflicts; however, the ISOTed countries may attempt to intercede on behalf of peace. This may or may not succeed. If there is an anti-Muslim backlash, the Middle East (and especially Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem, the latter becoming the capitol of a new Israel) may be conquered. At a minimum, the Arab slave trade will be halted, and African slavery stillborn. Depending on investment, Mali and Ethiopia may become African superpowers. Newer flu and cold varieties, COVID-19 (depending on the date of ISOT), and HIV are all likely to be spread over the 16th century. Large quantities of pagan folklore from Eastern Europe and Scandanavia are collected, as are lost classics from Timbuktu. New crops and management techniques, plus things like radio-based weather forecasting and actual knowledge of hygiene, allows for a population boom wherever there is North American influence. Outside of American spheres of influence, however, the new technology creates new opportunities for war and strife. Additionally, North American corporations may or may not monopolize the spice trade. This may or may not occur is Southeast Asia.
Europe is in a prime position to become even more powerful than it had been, by virtue of semi-similar culture, language and attitude. However, the religious strife and conflict may limit this; Italy and Germany were a patchwork of small feuding states, and even Wales, Scotland, and Britain were technically independent of each other at this time. This may lead to economic sabotage, or outright war; kings and nobles will be certain to try to preserve their power, and most of Europe will be in no state to unify. The lack of relief valves for religious dissidents, however, will likely exacerbate European tensions. The Ming Dynasty was still strong at this time, so China might be a strong contender for 2nd place in world dominance, provided the bureaucracy can adapt. In that event, they would likely take Japan (then in civil war), Korea, parts of Southeast Asia, Mongolia, and possibly North to Kamchatka.
By... whom, exactly? Against who? And why? And how would they rule? And how would the massive logistic trains that support modern technology be sustained? How would knowledge about the impact of imperialism affect this scenario? What about penicillin and other drugs?
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Kellcat
Occasional Ex-Lurker
- Location
- Texas
...nope. 2019. Trump is in the White House, and Republicans are in charge of Congress. Anything positive towards Latin America would require sufficient lack of bigotry to allow, which... at a bare minimum couldn't happen until the next President. Existing trade? Probably. More trade? Maybe - there may be enough practicality left in the Republican party to override bigotry. Anything that would PR as "helping Latinos"? ...highly unlikely.
I would more expect those food surpluses to be used on Europe - along with anything else that could be used to purchase and exploit land known to be rich in natural resources and "gain allies" (purchase cronies).
That said, even though that portion of Latin America which was ISoTed is weak in modern terms, in terms of 1492 capabilities, they are still incredibly strong. Assuming sufficient self-stability to begin foreign operations, they could become significant influences on the following history of the world. Assuming they don't completely disintegrate from the ISoT, the very change to the world outside may be sufficient cause for more internal stability as the governments direct diplomacy, hostilities, or colonization outward.
There would still be modern ships, in this scenario, assuming we don't have enough sea-level-drop to smash the ports, so it's actually fairly likely that modern ships (or even helicopters launched from ships) would arrive in Europe and other places well before Columbus even got under weigh - Columbus left Castile in August 1492, giving the replacement North America plenty of time to act first. In this history, Columbus may be interesting for what didn't happen, instead of what did. I.e. "the first time around, he did this, but not the second!" I'd actually consider it likely some wag would go to meet him specifically to cut him off.
Immigration to the USA is likely to stop. The current government's push for "skilled workers only" and "no public charge" and so forth would effectively exclude everyone not from the ISoT. It is possible that some rarefied academics might be allowed through, but 1492 job skills aren't likely to be in high demand in any of the ISoT countries. Additionally, with no existing relations between any 1492 nations and the USA, there would likely be legal ways of excluding entry of these "unknowns" until at least relations were normalized. And with 1492-tech sea travel, randoms aren't going to show up with an airline ticket - the investment would be much harder.
Some sort of "North American Union" in the short term is extremely unlikely. Republicans are more likely to rejoice at the dissolution of the UN and other international organizations - they would absolutely be against turning around and giving up sovereignty. Canadians might be "almost Americans", but Mexico on south are "furriners" (and many worse words) and there would be no interest in accepting them as "some of us", much less giving them any input into the fate of the US. Even Democratic politicians would be uninterested in giving up USA national interests to Latin America in any way or in placing any organization as higher than the US federal government, though closer relations would be a possibility. In the longer term, some attempt at revivification of a form of the UN might happen, but given the level of power imbalance in this scenario, it would not be likely a kindly organization. Even if there was an attempt at a benevolent organization of such, the "we know best" attitude and interventionist nature would be problematic. Given the relative development levels, there's no chance of an "equal partnership organization".
Maybe one. Maybe not the other. Certain interventionist sorts would encourage African slavery, even if the government officially would not - whether this would be viable would depend on the level of counterbalancing effort put into stopping it by the ISoT nations...which, out of bigotry, internal chaos, isolationism, or simple disinterest may be fairly small. We recently have a Republican politician actually endorsing slavery as "necessary" for the creation of the country - if this mindset is sufficiently prevalent and national governments do not counter such actions, powerful private organizations could easily overpower broad ranges of Africa and do as they pleased - there is a significant power imbalance between even non-state modern actors and the Africa of 1492.
(I would like to think that you're right, here, but given the last few years, I can't actually agree.)
..
This setting could go places, but from what I see, it would be likely to mostly go unpleasant places. At best, the modern countries would be sufficiently isolationist not to utterly destroy what's already present...at worst, they'd go bolostomping over a world that could effectively do nothing to stop them. State actors might not out of sheer inertia or disinterest of most citizens to interfere when there's no moral interest in smashing them and so little profit to be made in dealing with them...non-state actors, on the other hand, would be sufficiently powerful to mostly do what they pleased, and those most likely to act would be the ones with the fewest scruples.
This isn't a short-term analysis, hence the words "after decades".
That's a good point- I hadn't thought of that. There were even some aircraft carriers near the coast on that date, so some may have been brought along- and sea level was only, at most, about 8 inches lower. Ports are still usable.
Who? Who would benefit? How? Sugar, tobacco and indigo plantations in the Americas, plus the collapse of several African empires in the 1500s (foremost among them the Songhai) were what really enabled the African slave trade to escalate. With mechanized agriculture and anti-slavery laws, there's no real demand, and any companies either buying or shipping works to, for instance, the Amazon basin would attract a lot of scrutiny. That's not counting the humanitarian organizations that would push to prevent it.
Immediately, sure, but that will probably change by 1600, especially as modern technology percolates through society.
...or the President and Congress don't control the entire nation's food supply, so the market works as usual- assuming charities don't get to the food first. Actually, if the oversupply of food is large enough, there may need to be subsidies- America is a global food supplier, after all. That being said, you were probably right in that there will be some attempted famine relief worldwide- as long as diseases don't become a problem, and we can actually get ships into their ports.
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the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
- Location
- Comfortably numb
Why would Canada go all the way to the Middle East for oil? Why would either of them as a matter of fact? It's not the 70s anymore.
Kellcat
Occasional Ex-Lurker
- Location
- Texas
When you're talking that sort of people, the hate and the ability to act on it is the lion's share of the benefit. Add to that being able to take over that territory and become kings of it...? "Proving" that they're better by "ruling their lessers" and being king of shit mountain would be more than enough. And what laws? They're the new rulers; the law is that what they say goes. The question is simply whether there are enough of them with enough guns and enough clandestine support.
And there would be no humanitarian organizations pushing to prevent it. Not one. There would quite likely be several whining about it, yes, but not a one taking up arms to actually stop it. Meaning, like I said, that it goes back to - how much effort are the uptime nations willing to put into acting against such things? Commit actual troops? There's slavery all over the current world, and the governments of the world do very little to stop it. The most that has happened is effectively public shaming of the companies that make second-hand use of slave labor when it's discovered, which sometimes causes them to spend a little money to switch to using a different supplier. In a world where there is no "practical benefit" to rescuing a "bunch of primitives with no usable skills", and where "public shaming" would help not at all against the perpetrators...? Where, above that, it can become a living symbol for the white supremacy crowd (far more powerful than dead ones like the Confederate battle flag)...?
I can't say that it would happen. Sadly, I also can't say it wouldn't. :/
von hitchofen
Obsolescent Scandroid.
- Location
- Airstrip One, Oceania
Coronavirus/ SARS/ Influenza mass death event?