what if native Americans highly resistant to European diseases?
- Thread starter Drenghul
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Drenghul
The terror that watches in darkness
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Ik this but im wondering what butterflies this leads to? Its fun to think about
Most of the population of the Americas is still descended from the people who were there in 1491.
IIRC, ownership of American silver was an important ingredient in the European effort to re-orient the world market in ways favorable to themselves. Eliminating this may change everything. However, Europeans are still likely to dominate the trade between the New and Old Worlds, so you might still see a similar dynamic.
Nothing like the United States is going to exist, or at the very least if it does it'll be a very different country.
IIRC, the Maine/New Brunswick/Newfoundland area was too cold for maize agriculture and still inhabited by hunter-gatherers in the fifteenth century, so it seems a plausible place for a successful white settler colony. IIRC, California and the southern cone of South America also had that combination of low population and Europe-like climate, so they're other plausible locations.
If the trajectory of American history parallels African history, the present world may be poorer as a result, since the area of the OTL USA is ten or twenty Third World countries instead of a massive wealthy industrialized state. On the other hand, who knows how many contributors to human progress will be numbered among the descendants of the tens of millions of people who lived when they would have died OTL?
It's hard to really speculate in detail because of how many butterflies this scenario would create.
IIRC, ownership of American silver was an important ingredient in the European effort to re-orient the world market in ways favorable to themselves. Eliminating this may change everything. However, Europeans are still likely to dominate the trade between the New and Old Worlds, so you might still see a similar dynamic.
Nothing like the United States is going to exist, or at the very least if it does it'll be a very different country.
IIRC, the Maine/New Brunswick/Newfoundland area was too cold for maize agriculture and still inhabited by hunter-gatherers in the fifteenth century, so it seems a plausible place for a successful white settler colony. IIRC, California and the southern cone of South America also had that combination of low population and Europe-like climate, so they're other plausible locations.
If the trajectory of American history parallels African history, the present world may be poorer as a result, since the area of the OTL USA is ten or twenty Third World countries instead of a massive wealthy industrialized state. On the other hand, who knows how many contributors to human progress will be numbered among the descendants of the tens of millions of people who lived when they would have died OTL?
It's hard to really speculate in detail because of how many butterflies this scenario would create.
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It might stunt or outright derail the whole age of European imperialism, since there wouldn't be 2 continents worth of easy conquest & expansion to get the ball rolling. It took a lot longer for European colonialism to expand into places like India; regions where the local people didn't mostly drop dead when they arrived.
NothingNow
Corpse Wrangler
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- Tampa
Yeah. TBH, the biggest thing up front is that it'll make plantation agriculture viable in a lot more places earlier on (particularly until yellow fever and malaria get established in the new world.) Cerro Rico not being as closely tied into the global economy will also have massive effects, but that's something for later.
Because even if you're cutting down the overall fatality rate from disease and knock-on effects to like a third of what we currently hold as a reasonable estimate, that's still a massive social disruption, because you've got the population declining by like 30% over a century.
You'll still see european conquest, but it'll be much more piecemeal, and a roughly similar failure rate to the early conquistadors, not that any european government particularly cares. Especially if they know the locals are sitting on a metric fuck ton of silver. The Church might actually be able to take the lead and will probably have a decent amount of success once they get through their inevitable theological crisis regarding the peoples of the Americas.
Actually the OP goes much farther than that.
In this scenario, they are actually much more resistant to European diseases than the Europeans themselves are.
NothingNow
Corpse Wrangler
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- Tampa
Well then, it's just a continent-sized India, with pretty much everything outside of Central America and South America being legitimately worthless from an outside perspective. So, lots of conquest through various means there, and North America is a perpetual sideshow.
But seriously, the OP is so vague that I can't do anything more than that. I can't even tell if Fever Zones are going to be a thing in the Americas or not.
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Flectarn
Uphold Kali Akuno Thought
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- Queen City of the Ohio
Having personally grown corn in Maine, I'm a little skeptical of this, got a cite?
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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No serious conquest of Central or South America is remotely plausible until the 18th century at least.
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Wouldn't the time period in question have been during the Little Ice Age, hence colder than today?
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What happens is that American infectious diseases spread into virgin territory, cause a series of terrible plagues that horribly depopulate Europe, and then the European population rebounds.
Assuming bilateral immunity, it was the European control of the Americas that created the conditions for Europe's nascent financial sector to develop the form of capitalism that would in turn develop their domination over the rest of the world. Without this, Europe lacks that and lacks much of the support for imperialism to develop. As a consequence, Europe and Africa become richer for a while as they benefit from monopolizing trade between the Americas and China/India, until Native societies absorb ironworking and oceangoing ships and so on and cut out the middleman. The history of the world changes massively as Native philosophies and religions are able to enter on level ground with other ones, creating a much more diverse ferment of thinking during the next few centuries, but technological development is probably slower. It's very possible that the development of capitalism takes an entirely different form from the one developed in Europe. The overall consequences are very hard to give even in outlines.
Assuming bilateral immunity, it was the European control of the Americas that created the conditions for Europe's nascent financial sector to develop the form of capitalism that would in turn develop their domination over the rest of the world. Without this, Europe lacks that and lacks much of the support for imperialism to develop. As a consequence, Europe and Africa become richer for a while as they benefit from monopolizing trade between the Americas and China/India, until Native societies absorb ironworking and oceangoing ships and so on and cut out the middleman. The history of the world changes massively as Native philosophies and religions are able to enter on level ground with other ones, creating a much more diverse ferment of thinking during the next few centuries, but technological development is probably slower. It's very possible that the development of capitalism takes an entirely different form from the one developed in Europe. The overall consequences are very hard to give even in outlines.
The colonisation of the Americas will very closely resemble that of Africa; it will be much later and much more ephemeral in the long term. Certainly, if the Europeans actually manage to fully conquer the place at all, it'll be back to native rulers a couple of centuries later at the most.
EricD
Coeur d’Acier
Assuming that the Native Americans have a similar level of resistance to diseases that the Europeans had, I could see some limited European colonization on the East Coast, perhaps establishing permanent minority populations there, rather similar to the Boers in South Africa. But European colonization all the way from coast to coast would probably not be tenable. I have no idea what the long term and wide scale effects would be, but the world would be a very different looking place today.
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Keep in mind that European colonization of Africa was accomplished a) after centuries of African economic collapse due to the ripple effects of the slave trade, b) after the establishment of a colonial mindset in Europeans due to the relatively easy colonization of the New World and c) with machine-guns. If B isn't true, then A is a lot less prominent and the economic and political situation that even makes C possible aren't there.
Many of the early European colonies in North America were straight-up established atop the corpses of natives dropping dead from disease, sometimes so rapidly that the Europeans could pick up agricultural processes where the dead and fleeing natives left off. The conquests of Cortex were accompanied by the virgin soil epidemics gutting the nobility of everyone involved. Europeans can form toeholds here or there on the continent, but they aren't going to take control. They'll have dominance of trade, but it won't be the gigantic economic advantage it was OTL.
And, most importantly, it'll probably take a lot longer to get the potato to Europe. Considering you can make a fair argument that the potato was integral to the Industrial Revolution...
Many of the early European colonies in North America were straight-up established atop the corpses of natives dropping dead from disease, sometimes so rapidly that the Europeans could pick up agricultural processes where the dead and fleeing natives left off. The conquests of Cortex were accompanied by the virgin soil epidemics gutting the nobility of everyone involved. Europeans can form toeholds here or there on the continent, but they aren't going to take control. They'll have dominance of trade, but it won't be the gigantic economic advantage it was OTL.
And, most importantly, it'll probably take a lot longer to get the potato to Europe. Considering you can make a fair argument that the potato was integral to the Industrial Revolution...
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Why would the potato take longer to arrive? People are still going to be trading and eating American foods, and the desire to get to China will bring the Europeans into contact with the Andes eventually. The Columbian Exchange will still be going strong, it just won't have the immediate and drastic effects on h. sapiens that it did historically.
Although we can't just take the colonial efforts in Africa directly - North America won't have the same local disease lethality (like malaria) and the animal-killing diseases which caused major problems for European efforts.
notanautomaton
I've got 99 quests, I've finished one
Lets start at Columbus. He discovers the Carribean, notes that it has an abundance of gold and a peaceful native population, leading to an attempted Spanish takeover of the region, followed by the other European powers. Due to the lack of disease, this will likely take much longer and be much more expensive. The Spanish will then attempt to attack the Aztecs, and will likely win due to their technology and native allies. However, they will not be able to hold this territory, and the Aztec empire will break up, and the individual states will be exploited by the European powers. With a lack of large scale unrest, the Inca may survive and remain a viable state in South America. If they attempt to modernize their technology, army, and other systems they may become a world power. Among the South American areas without strong groups of natives, the europeans will likely imperialize rather than colonize, resulting in a South America that looks more like Africa politically.
In North America, the lack of gold and harsher climate will likely prevent Europeans from taking over the way that they do in most of South America. They will likely manage to colonize some coastal regions and take over some tribes, but this control will be nowhere near as complete as in our world. They will trade for furs with the natives, potentially allowing some to modernize and dominate their neighbors. The Iroquois Confederacy will grow in power, and could grow to rival European states if they take in the European advancements.
Among the more southern tribes, the Cherokee and the other tribes near them will possibly modernize as well. The Spanish will imperialize and colonize California, though they won't gain much power in the Southwestern desert. The plains Indians will gain horses and possibly benefit from cultural exchange from any tribes that have already modernized. The Inuits and other northern tribes will remain marginalized due to the lack of resources and poor climate, and their culture will remain mostly unchanged well into the twenty-first century.
Assuming minimal butterflies, World War one will possibly go in favor of the central powers, due to a lack of american aid. If it does end in an allied victory, the allies will likely have a less advantageous position resulting in a more equitable treaty. The world will likely loose much technological advancement, and will be poorer due to lacking an American superpower, unless the Iroquois, Inca, Cherokee, or some other group manages to conquer a significant portion of the continent. Communism will likely become a much more popular political system due to the lack of a capitalist superpower, and they may end up dominating the world without an enemy with nuclear weapons to oppose them.
In North America, the lack of gold and harsher climate will likely prevent Europeans from taking over the way that they do in most of South America. They will likely manage to colonize some coastal regions and take over some tribes, but this control will be nowhere near as complete as in our world. They will trade for furs with the natives, potentially allowing some to modernize and dominate their neighbors. The Iroquois Confederacy will grow in power, and could grow to rival European states if they take in the European advancements.
Among the more southern tribes, the Cherokee and the other tribes near them will possibly modernize as well. The Spanish will imperialize and colonize California, though they won't gain much power in the Southwestern desert. The plains Indians will gain horses and possibly benefit from cultural exchange from any tribes that have already modernized. The Inuits and other northern tribes will remain marginalized due to the lack of resources and poor climate, and their culture will remain mostly unchanged well into the twenty-first century.
Assuming minimal butterflies, World War one will possibly go in favor of the central powers, due to a lack of american aid. If it does end in an allied victory, the allies will likely have a less advantageous position resulting in a more equitable treaty. The world will likely loose much technological advancement, and will be poorer due to lacking an American superpower, unless the Iroquois, Inca, Cherokee, or some other group manages to conquer a significant portion of the continent. Communism will likely become a much more popular political system due to the lack of a capitalist superpower, and they may end up dominating the world without an enemy with nuclear weapons to oppose them.
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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World War One was brought about partly through an intense sense of colonial rivalry among the various emerging European powers that simply won't exist in this timeline.
notanautomaton
I've got 99 quests, I've finished one
A large part of that was from the Scramble for Africa and trade in Asia rather than American colonies, so their absence will likely not result in a change in WWI. On the other hand, the fact that parts of America will likely remain open for exploitation for much longer will likely mean that a large scale European war will occur sooner. On the other hand, the decreased rate of technological advancement will make the war shorter and less bloody.
GeshronTyler
Kleiner Giftzwerg
I don't know about a possible WWI equivalent being "less bloody". Should technological progress be less, then you might simply see an endless series of smaller wars, as the warring nations don't have the wealth and resources of their colonies, or the military technology to sustain heavy industrialized combat. Or pperhaps, a balkanization of Europe, as trench warfare ends up a semi-permanent state of affairs
I really doubt there will be a WWI as we know it in this world. The consequences of this change are so sweeping I expect history will be well off its OTL rails by 1900. This is a scenario that could plausibly butterfly away the entire world order of 1900 or the industrial revolution, let alone WWI with recognizable factions.
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Spartakrod
Judeo-Spartacist Bolshevik-Kabbalist
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If you do get a generally global great power war in the later segment of the industrial period defined by the Tank and the Aircraft still being in their infancy, defense dominating over attack, and trench warfare being an exceedingly powerful tactic, it's quite possible that it would be more deadly here than in our timeline. Particularly if there are native American great powers around to open up entirely new fronts.