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What if D-Day Fails...

brian boru

brian boru

HORRIBLY. I mean so badly that the survivors of Kublai's Invasion Fleets would think, thank heaven we're not those guys, and buy them a drink out of pity for their horrible fate.

Think up your own scenarios of what exactly happened and what the likely consequences of such a debacle would be.
 
From what I know, I can't imagine it failing in such a way without either A) the preceding false intelligence effort failing to convince the Nazis that the landings were a diversion from another assault, or B) the Allies executing a massive cock-up.

In any case, maybe the Allies push harder through Italy? I dunno.
 
brian boru said:
HORRIBLY. I mean so badly that the survivors of Kublai's Invasion Fleets would think, thank heaven we're not those guys, and buy them a drink out of pity for their horrible fate.

Think up your own scenarios of what exactly happened and what the likely consequences of such a debacle would be.
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Doesn't change much except the Soviets take over continental Europe save perhaps France, Spain and italy.

The Wehrmacht only have enough for one offensive push at best. The soviet war machine just grinds its way through Germany.
 
aceraptor said:
Doesn't change much except the Soviets take over continental Europe save perhaps France, Spain and italy.

The Wehrmacht only have enough for one offensive push at best. The soviet war machine just grinds its way through Germany.
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Actually the Soviets couldn't reach past much beyond OTL due to the fact that they are literally at the end of their manpower and logistical trains. Add to the fact that every unit that is sent into the front is literally gutted by fierce resistance of the Nazis and their allies (we're talking turning entire large-scale units into skeletons at best, functionally broken at worst). Italy isn't a good place to invade the Nazis, they already showed how bad it would be just fighting in lower Italy.

Since the Nazis aren't fully divided in attention, the most likely probability might be that the units that would likely be moved to stall the Western Allies advance would be sent to the Eastern Front. That might bleed the Soviets just enough that they'll give up on trying to get to Berlin. Any hault of the advance would make it a bit impossible to start up again with the Soviet's lack of manpower.

The USSR couldn't keep up with the loss of men it was having during the invasion of Central Europe. The USSR was literally scraping at the bottom of their manpower barrel. It's the big reason that Stalin didn't go out and invade the rest of Europe after the war ended, he couldn't scrape up the men needed for such a war without causing huge amounts of problems at the homefront let alone the problems that would result.
 
A fail at D-Day means the Germans have a free hand for at least a year and they know it. Putting the resources east they devoted to the west between Normandy and the Bulge results in the Russians being stalemated along the Oder Carpathian line.

Bagration forces both a reality check and a pull back to more defensible positions which drags the war out to 1946.

What happens then, aside from Germany losing is harder to predict
 
Hmm... I'm curious if this also puts a delay on the defeat of Japan, as well?

It was my understanding that after Pearl Harbour, the Allies convinced the USA to redirect the population's outrage at the attack towards crushing Germany with a united assault before then focusing on Japan (since of the two, Germany was considered the bigger and more immediate threat)? If said 'ultimate offensive' fails, then that's a lot of manpower and time wasted.

I mean, it seems unlikely that losing D-Day will somehow lead to an armistice or the Axis somehow winning, but it certainly buys them a lot of time. While Germany is still going to be in a lot of trouble, I'm thinking that this'll probably keep the heat off of Japan's back long enough for them to gain a much stronger foothold in East Asia and the Pacific.

...

Or not, I'm not exactly an expert on wartime history.
 
The infrastructure damage to Germany will certainly be bigger as it would make sense to crank up the bombing runs if you can't secure a area on the ground in the short to long run.

If the Soviets get stuck earlier with France not being freed it might be good for the Polish side as a general uprising there would become more important for the Allies, especially considering the size of the Polish army in exile compared to the French one.

And what about Operation Dragoon, ie the invasion of the Côte d'Azur ?

And of course the push throught Italy will be of greater importance so I can see that the suplies that would have gone into the wester after D-Day instead being moved south to be used there and in Yugoslavia
 
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Dragoon (the invasion of Southern France) was a pretty tremendous success... but it's doubtful that would've been the case after a failed D-Day landing. Still, it does point to another option... once sufficient landing craft are built up.
The main alternative to Dragoon, proposed by Churchill, was an invasion into Slovenia and Austria - because apparently the Alps are a soft underbelly. Oh, Churchill...

Meanwhile, until the Allies gain a successful lodgment in northern France, London's going to face V-2 attacks for longer - the launchers were too easily moved about to be dealt with from the air.
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I'd say the most likely way for D-Day to fail would've been if the weather turned out worse.
 
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Germany becomes a radioactive wasteland. That's what the Manhattan Project was made for in the first place.
 
And that would be the reason why Germany would refuse to surrender because either way they are doomed.
 
It pretty much ends the same, only German cities get nuked instead of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
 
McBobbish said:
It pretty much ends the same, only German cities get nuked instead of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
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For Germany; dropping the nukes on Germany means they don't force a Japanese surrender in 1945, which means things get messy in the Pacific. Operation Downfall, half of Japan starving, Soviet Hokkaido, possible Japanese civil war, that sort of shit.
 
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CV12Hornet said:
For Germany; dropping the nukes on Germany means they don't force a Japanese surrender in 1945, which means things get messy in the Pacific. Operation Downfall, half of Japan starving, Soviet Hokkaido, possible Japanese civil war, that sort of shit.
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Well,I was talking in terms of Europe for the most part, but really, the point was that one way or another,The Axis are defeated.
 
CV12Hornet said:
For Germany; dropping the nukes on Germany means they don't force a Japanese surrender in 1945, which means things get messy in the Pacific. Operation Downfall, half of Japan starving, Soviet Hokkaido, possible Japanese civil war, that sort of shit.
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The 3rd nuke comes in late August. 3 more in September, 6 each in October and November, 7 in December. 10 per month in 1946.

That's 25 by the end of the year. I think the war will be over before 1946.
 
Also, remember that the strategy involved was a Europe First one. If D-Day fails, I forsee more material being routed to Europe, rather than pushing the Japanese out of the Pacific. So Japan might not be in quite so dire of straights, or at least could be in rather different ones as opposed to the original timeline.
 
C.o.S.a.R said:
Also, remember that the strategy involved was a Europe First one. If D-Day fails, I forsee more material being routed to Europe, rather than pushing the Japanese out of the Pacific. So Japan might not be in quite so dire of straights, or at least could be in rather different ones as opposed to the original timeline.
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While true, what this meant was that the US fought Germany with the US army and 2 airforces while they fought Japan with the USN and marines, with one stump air force in China.

At no point in the war did the USN devote less than 50% of her units to the Pacific theatre.
 
PainRack said:
While true, what this meant was that the US fought Germany with the US army and 2 airforces while they fought Japan with the USN and marines, with one stump air force in China.

At no point in the war did the USN devote less than 50% of her units to the Pacific theatre.
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Actually the Army was just as important in the Pacific Theater as the Marines. It's largely overlooked, but if the Army begins shifting forces from the Pacific because of a failed D-Day that could significantly delay operations over there.
 
Saipan was taken 15 June-9July, and Tinian was taken in July and August. The preps to take Saipan are probably too involved to stop, once Saipan is taken they will take Tinian as well. Once both are taken Japan is in B-29 range.

Also there were over a million troops available in Britain, totaling 39 divisions, there is no need to strip the Pacific.
 
CV12Hornet said:
Operation Downfall, half of Japan starving, Soviet Hokkaido, possible Japanese civil war, that sort of shit.
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I'm skeptical an amphibious invasion of Japan is in the cards at all after a failed Overlord. If nothing else, public outcry among the western allies would be pretty fucking loud.
 
Harbinger said:
Actually the Army was just as important in the Pacific Theater as the Marines. It's largely overlooked, but if the Army begins shifting forces from the Pacific because of a failed D-Day that could significantly delay operations over there.
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Impossible. It takes an entire year to plan and shift troop logistics, with troop movements planned months in advance on the strategic level.

If a failure occurred, it would be easier to simply raise more divisions in the states and shift them overseas rather than disrupt an entire year of logistics and ship movements, especially since you will still need an assault force in the Pacific. At best, Iwo Jima is delayed.
 
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