- Location
- The Chaos Timeline
Oh so many people have already speculated about the Wehrmacht attacking instead of halting at Dunkirk in May 1940. If it happened, it'd be the first big encirclement battle of WW2, but in the west instead of the East.
Here's my rough draft:
May 25th - The News of Dunkirk's Fall causes Panic among the Allies. Both Officers and Men have to choose between three to four bad Alternatives: Trying a risky breakthrough at Douai towards Peronne (distance 50 km, by air); trying to hold the line, make or break; risking a surprise coup of Dunkirk, to achieve Evacuation at the end; or capitulation. The Brits and younger commanders tend to a fight, the older Frenchmen and Belgians to capitulation. A few thousand Allied Soldiers per day manage to get picked up at the Belgian Shores by the small Boats at least. These boats have to take the longer Route Y, which means that even getting there takes them eight hours.
Winston Churchill, when learning that Dunkirk has been taken, orders the BEF to try to take it back, to continue Operation Dynamo, for which planning started just five days ago.
May 26th - The most advanced French Troops retreating reach Dunkirk, where the Germans already have created a defense line. First skirmishes end in a draw. German Panzer troops reach Lille, where the Remains of six French Divisions have concentrated.
May 27th - Belgian King Leopold III, supreme commander of his Army, capitulates - without having informed the other Allies about this. The Allied Troops in besieged Calais capitulate too, after a few thousand of them could make the evacuation. Lille is encircled by the 6. Armee (von Reichenau). For a short Moment, the Germans at Dunkirk seem to get into trouble, when the French mass their remaining tanks and start an offensive. The German anti-tank gunners seem helpless - but when the Germans divert their anti-air guns from their proper use, they can destroy even the thickly armored French Char tanks. From now on, the French are only able to fight defensively.
French counter-attacks of the 10th Army at Abbeville coming from the South are blocked by the Germans.
May 28th - More than 90% of the Belgian Soldiers have capitulated against the Germans, the Rest continues fighting on the side of the Allies. Almost all of Flanders is now occupied by the Heeresgruppe von Bock; now, the Allied Soldiers can't even flee via the shores. BEF commander Lord Gort escapes with one of the last Ships. Alphonse Juin, one of the Division commanders in the encircled Lille, capitulates with his Troops. The Germans capture about 100 tanks and 300 Guns.
May 29th - The British Expeditionary Force (now under Harold Alexander) has to move Troops to cover their Northern flank, after the Belgians aren't there anymore. Making an Offensive much more dangerous for them. The German Troops at Dunkirk push their opponents behind the Yser river.
May 30th - Hermann Hoth accepts the capitulation of Lille. The 1st French Army doesn't exist anymore. This is leaving only the BEF in the area around Ypres (once again...) between the rivers Yser and Lys. For one Week, the Men have fought on half Rations, effective strength and Morale have suffered accordingly.
May 31th - The commander Alexander contacts the Germans to negotiate about capitulation. The French counter-attacks at Abbeville are cancelled too, since the Situation seems hopeless.
June 1st - The BEF is dissolving now. Some Soldiers decide to fight their way through the German lines towards unoccupied France in the South on their own. Only few, like "Fighting Jack" Churchill, are successful with this.
June 2nd - Harold Alexander has to sign the BEF's capitulation at Ypres.
Results:
Even if the German losses (soldiers and panzers) were somewhat higher than in OTL, the Allied losses were several times higher, moving the balance in Germany's favor. Hence, the attack on France ("Case Red") was continued as soon as June 2nd, instead of June 4th.
The captured material alone which the Wehrmacht was able to peruse now was overwhelming: More than 500 usable tanks, more than 2,000 guns, over 10,000 Machine guns, and over 50,000 vehicles.
More than 300,000 men of the Allies had died, were missing, or had become German prisoners of war. Dozens of new prisoners camps (StaLags) were created for their placement.
The British Army wasn't just decimiated, but practically halved. About ten Divisions had been lost in the battle, which had to be replaced now. For which there were only bad Alternatives as solutions:
The British Empire, which still covered one quarter of the Earth's landmass on maps, now had become weak and attackable everywhere potentially, but barely able to change to the offense. The Troops which now were evacuated as fast as possible from Narvik to Great Britain couldn't change too much about that.
Many competent commanders of the Brits became prisoners of war now:
Because of these losses of barely replaceable commanders, the Western Allies now were lacking leaders who had made experiences about the German Blitzkrieg tactics, especially the usage of Panzers, and in this regard, with Rommel as opponent. Hence, the remaining Troops of the Empire weren't just weaker and worse trained, but also less experienced and demotivated by the defeat.
France suffered too: Since those soldiers evacuated in OTL couldn't be sent back to France, Weygand has even fewer divisions available for defense.
On the other side, the Germans were able to use their Experiences from the battle of encirclement for great success later - especially the fact that many Officers had learned from Erwin Rommel how to use anti-air guns against strong tanks. The German Panzers often doing badly in comparison to the Allied ones lead to all of the Pz I and II being delegated for training purposes only, and the Pz III and IV getting stronger cannons faster than in OTL.
Finally, the German victory was an enormous Shock for the Allied Morale and that of opponents of the Nazis in general - and improved the Motivation of the followers of the "führer". Even if it was doubtful how much of a share he had regarding this victory.
Aftermath:
2nd to 9th of June: Wehrmacht advances to the Seine
6th of June: de Gaulle appointed Under-Secretary of State for National Defence and War
7th of June: French government leaves Paris
7th to 9th of June: Evacuation of British troops from Le Havre (hastened compared to OTL - in fact, like much on this list)
8th of June: Italy declares war on the Allies. Soviet Union delivers first ultimatum, to Lithuania
9th of June: Franco declares Spain to be "non-belligerent". Last Norwegians capitulate
10th of June: The Wehrmacht occupies Paris; Spain occupies Tangier.
11th of June: Conference of Briare. Everyone not named Churchill or de Gaulle already panicks about the approachign Wehrmacht. Their idea of making Brittany a redoubt just leads to amusement.
10th to 12th of June: The Sowjetunion occupies Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
12th to 19th of June: Evacuation of Allied soldiers from French Atlantic harbors. Again, hastened. Instead of ~190,000, only close to 150,000 people are saved. Of which about 110,000 are Brits, 15,000 French, 20,000 Poles or Czechs. 25-30,000 of all those are civilians.
13th of June: Wehrmacht has reached the Loire. Conference of Tours. Anglo-French Union (an idea by Monnet) again suggested, leads to nothing. de Gaulle fired as under-secretary. Prepares to fly to London.
14th of June: Free France proclaimed in London by Charles de Gaulle. Meanwhile, Vichy France under Philippe Pétain is ready for an Armistice.
17th of June: French-German armistice signed in Compiegne.
18th of June: French-Italian armistice signed.
19th of June: Twelve Torpedo Bombers (of the Fairey Swordfish Type, part of the 767 Naval Air Squadron) did not fly to Malta, since they thought to be more useful on the Home Islands after the Battle of Dunkirk. In OTL, they had formed the 830 Naval Air Squadron in Malta - a small additional PoD caused by the Butterfly Effect caused them to miss there. Armistice between the Axis Powers and France effective.
20th of June: The "führer" spontaneously visits Paris. Too early for another planned assassination of him.
22nd of June: The Sowjetunion occupies Bessarabia and northern Bukovina. That's why on June 28th, the Romanian government falls.
27th of June: "Operation Catapult": Great Britain strikes against the French Fleet at Oran.
30th of June: The Wehrmacht occupies the Channel Islands.
2nd of July: Brits attack Dakar. Ion Antonescu arrested for protesting about Bessarabia.
Here's my rough draft:
May 25th - The News of Dunkirk's Fall causes Panic among the Allies. Both Officers and Men have to choose between three to four bad Alternatives: Trying a risky breakthrough at Douai towards Peronne (distance 50 km, by air); trying to hold the line, make or break; risking a surprise coup of Dunkirk, to achieve Evacuation at the end; or capitulation. The Brits and younger commanders tend to a fight, the older Frenchmen and Belgians to capitulation. A few thousand Allied Soldiers per day manage to get picked up at the Belgian Shores by the small Boats at least. These boats have to take the longer Route Y, which means that even getting there takes them eight hours.
Winston Churchill, when learning that Dunkirk has been taken, orders the BEF to try to take it back, to continue Operation Dynamo, for which planning started just five days ago.
May 26th - The most advanced French Troops retreating reach Dunkirk, where the Germans already have created a defense line. First skirmishes end in a draw. German Panzer troops reach Lille, where the Remains of six French Divisions have concentrated.
May 27th - Belgian King Leopold III, supreme commander of his Army, capitulates - without having informed the other Allies about this. The Allied Troops in besieged Calais capitulate too, after a few thousand of them could make the evacuation. Lille is encircled by the 6. Armee (von Reichenau). For a short Moment, the Germans at Dunkirk seem to get into trouble, when the French mass their remaining tanks and start an offensive. The German anti-tank gunners seem helpless - but when the Germans divert their anti-air guns from their proper use, they can destroy even the thickly armored French Char tanks. From now on, the French are only able to fight defensively.
French counter-attacks of the 10th Army at Abbeville coming from the South are blocked by the Germans.
May 28th - More than 90% of the Belgian Soldiers have capitulated against the Germans, the Rest continues fighting on the side of the Allies. Almost all of Flanders is now occupied by the Heeresgruppe von Bock; now, the Allied Soldiers can't even flee via the shores. BEF commander Lord Gort escapes with one of the last Ships. Alphonse Juin, one of the Division commanders in the encircled Lille, capitulates with his Troops. The Germans capture about 100 tanks and 300 Guns.
May 29th - The British Expeditionary Force (now under Harold Alexander) has to move Troops to cover their Northern flank, after the Belgians aren't there anymore. Making an Offensive much more dangerous for them. The German Troops at Dunkirk push their opponents behind the Yser river.
May 30th - Hermann Hoth accepts the capitulation of Lille. The 1st French Army doesn't exist anymore. This is leaving only the BEF in the area around Ypres (once again...) between the rivers Yser and Lys. For one Week, the Men have fought on half Rations, effective strength and Morale have suffered accordingly.
May 31th - The commander Alexander contacts the Germans to negotiate about capitulation. The French counter-attacks at Abbeville are cancelled too, since the Situation seems hopeless.
June 1st - The BEF is dissolving now. Some Soldiers decide to fight their way through the German lines towards unoccupied France in the South on their own. Only few, like "Fighting Jack" Churchill, are successful with this.
June 2nd - Harold Alexander has to sign the BEF's capitulation at Ypres.
Results:
Even if the German losses (soldiers and panzers) were somewhat higher than in OTL, the Allied losses were several times higher, moving the balance in Germany's favor. Hence, the attack on France ("Case Red") was continued as soon as June 2nd, instead of June 4th.
The captured material alone which the Wehrmacht was able to peruse now was overwhelming: More than 500 usable tanks, more than 2,000 guns, over 10,000 Machine guns, and over 50,000 vehicles.
More than 300,000 men of the Allies had died, were missing, or had become German prisoners of war. Dozens of new prisoners camps (StaLags) were created for their placement.
The British Army wasn't just decimiated, but practically halved. About ten Divisions had been lost in the battle, which had to be replaced now. For which there were only bad Alternatives as solutions:
- Raising more Troops in the Dominions and colonies (which would take Months)
- Moving Soldiers of other services (Navy, Air Force) to the Army
- Sending badly or not at all trained Troops into the war
The British Empire, which still covered one quarter of the Earth's landmass on maps, now had become weak and attackable everywhere potentially, but barely able to change to the offense. The Troops which now were evacuated as fast as possible from Narvik to Great Britain couldn't change too much about that.
Many competent commanders of the Brits became prisoners of war now:
- Alan Brooke, who'd become the most important Military advisor of Winston Churchill in OTL
- Noel Mason-MacFarlane, responsible for military intelligence at the BEF, who'd become Governor of Gibraltar in OTL
- Harold Alexander, who'd fight in Burma and Northern Africa
- Chief of Staff Henry Pownall, who'd later serve under Wavell and Mountbatten in OTL
- Ronald Forbes Adam, a good Organisator
- Giffard Le Quesne Martel, who passed on valuable experiences with German Panzers to the other Brits
- William Holmes, who fought in Syria and Northern Africa
- Kenneth Anderson, who participated in Operation Torch in OTL...
- Other famous commanders like Bernard Montgomery and Arthur Percival
Because of these losses of barely replaceable commanders, the Western Allies now were lacking leaders who had made experiences about the German Blitzkrieg tactics, especially the usage of Panzers, and in this regard, with Rommel as opponent. Hence, the remaining Troops of the Empire weren't just weaker and worse trained, but also less experienced and demotivated by the defeat.
France suffered too: Since those soldiers evacuated in OTL couldn't be sent back to France, Weygand has even fewer divisions available for defense.
On the other side, the Germans were able to use their Experiences from the battle of encirclement for great success later - especially the fact that many Officers had learned from Erwin Rommel how to use anti-air guns against strong tanks. The German Panzers often doing badly in comparison to the Allied ones lead to all of the Pz I and II being delegated for training purposes only, and the Pz III and IV getting stronger cannons faster than in OTL.
Finally, the German victory was an enormous Shock for the Allied Morale and that of opponents of the Nazis in general - and improved the Motivation of the followers of the "führer". Even if it was doubtful how much of a share he had regarding this victory.
Aftermath:
2nd to 9th of June: Wehrmacht advances to the Seine
6th of June: de Gaulle appointed Under-Secretary of State for National Defence and War
7th of June: French government leaves Paris
7th to 9th of June: Evacuation of British troops from Le Havre (hastened compared to OTL - in fact, like much on this list)
8th of June: Italy declares war on the Allies. Soviet Union delivers first ultimatum, to Lithuania
9th of June: Franco declares Spain to be "non-belligerent". Last Norwegians capitulate
10th of June: The Wehrmacht occupies Paris; Spain occupies Tangier.
11th of June: Conference of Briare. Everyone not named Churchill or de Gaulle already panicks about the approachign Wehrmacht. Their idea of making Brittany a redoubt just leads to amusement.
10th to 12th of June: The Sowjetunion occupies Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
12th to 19th of June: Evacuation of Allied soldiers from French Atlantic harbors. Again, hastened. Instead of ~190,000, only close to 150,000 people are saved. Of which about 110,000 are Brits, 15,000 French, 20,000 Poles or Czechs. 25-30,000 of all those are civilians.
13th of June: Wehrmacht has reached the Loire. Conference of Tours. Anglo-French Union (an idea by Monnet) again suggested, leads to nothing. de Gaulle fired as under-secretary. Prepares to fly to London.
14th of June: Free France proclaimed in London by Charles de Gaulle. Meanwhile, Vichy France under Philippe Pétain is ready for an Armistice.
17th of June: French-German armistice signed in Compiegne.
18th of June: French-Italian armistice signed.
19th of June: Twelve Torpedo Bombers (of the Fairey Swordfish Type, part of the 767 Naval Air Squadron) did not fly to Malta, since they thought to be more useful on the Home Islands after the Battle of Dunkirk. In OTL, they had formed the 830 Naval Air Squadron in Malta - a small additional PoD caused by the Butterfly Effect caused them to miss there. Armistice between the Axis Powers and France effective.
20th of June: The "führer" spontaneously visits Paris. Too early for another planned assassination of him.
22nd of June: The Sowjetunion occupies Bessarabia and northern Bukovina. That's why on June 28th, the Romanian government falls.
27th of June: "Operation Catapult": Great Britain strikes against the French Fleet at Oran.
30th of June: The Wehrmacht occupies the Channel Islands.
2nd of July: Brits attack Dakar. Ion Antonescu arrested for protesting about Bessarabia.