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War and Racketeering; An Easy Guide
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Dossier 3: Local Geography
One of the Quonset huts came with a surprise gift: reference material. Beside the folding table perhaps intended to serve as your desk, a stack of four small, wooden crates turned on their sides and nailed together made a somewhat serviceable bookshelf. In addition to maps of the country and region, some recognition guides and the like, a perfectly ordinary three-ring binder caught your eye. It proved to contain page upon page photocopied from a report by some NGO or UN affiliated subcommittee or the like on development potential in the province, with other binders holding similar reports for neighboring provinces and adjacent regions of Botswana, Zambia and Namibia. Not something you expected to see, but perhaps a wise inclusion for getting the lay of the land and understanding local needs and how best to meet them. There's a lot of information to it, too much to read while there is work to do, but the executive summary is at least a good start.
Prospects for Self-Sufficiency: Matabeland North
Executive Summary
Major challenges towards local self-sufficiency in Matabeland North currently include limited access to clean water for domestic use in some areas, food scarcity, somewhat limited infrastructure, and minimal export-oriented economic activity. Tourism, gold mining and agriculture are the major industries, with agriculture largely of a subsistence nature and limited by lack of water. Basic transportation infrastructure is adequate for present needs around most significant population centers, but decreases rapidly in more remote areas and may not be adequate for any substantial expansion of industry. Where electricity is available, supply can not meet the current demand and rolling blackouts are common.
A large majority of land area in Matabeland North features favorable hydrogeology, with large, reasonably easily accessible groundwater reserves and good water quality. Rural communities typically obtain water from boreholes by means of a hand pump, with electric pumps increasingly present in urban areas. Old equipment and poor maintenance has lead to increasing failures in rural water sources, suggesting that new or replacement well pumps may play an important role in future aid or development efforts. In many regions, groundwater is sufficient to supply significant irrigation projects, if the pumps, electricity and irrigation equipment were to be provided. This, if carried out on a sufficient scale, would largely address the province's food production difficulties. For more information, see the included figure or the British Geological Survey's report on the hydrogeology of Zimbabwe.
Food insecurity in the region is largely due to limited available water. Agriculture is primarily of a subsistence nature and often can not adequately supply the nutritional needs of the farmers. Little room for productive mechanization currently exists because of limited infrastructure and fuel availability. Herding, once a much larger component of the province's agriculture than it currently is, can better make use of much of the region's land than plant-based agriculture in the absence of additional irrigation. Current recommendations for increasing food security include introducing center-pivot irrigation or other well-based irrigation techniques, and encouraging increased cattle or goat herding in otherwise marginal land, with modern farming techniques potentially being introduced in the future pending improved infrastructure and a more developed local economy.
Transportation infrastructure consists of the Victoria Falls – Bulawayo railroad line, part of the Bulawayo - Francistown line, a handful of railway connections to communities or mining sites off of the main line, and a sparse network of (often unpaved) roads, as well as a handful of small airports. Communities of significant size are typically adequately served to meet current demand, but little infrastructure exists in remote areas, and expansions will likely be needed to accommodate any substantial new economic activity. Improvements in road quality will be key, and any significant new mining, industrial or export-oriented agricultural ventures will likely be best served by railway connections where existing lines are available in the vicinity. Access to remote rural communities can likely be best improved by expansion of the road network and regular trucks and buses for goods and transportation.
Power is provided almost exclusively by the Hwange Thermal Power Plant, a coal plant run off of locally produced coal. Water for the plant's boilers and cooling towers is piped from the Zambezi River, with significant excess capacity in the pipeline but limited excess capacity in the on-site demineralization plant. Demand exceeds capacity and rolling blackouts are commonplace. The vast coal reserves in the region allow for almost arbitrary expansion of the capacity, given sufficient funding. Expansions to the existing plant would likely be easiest due to the infrastructure and water supply already in place, but there is also the potential for coal-fired plants elsewhere in the province. Additionally, there is significant untapped hydroelectric potential on the Zambezi river along the border with Zambia, and there is evidence of large reserves of coal-bed natural gas which could be used as an alternate fuel. In addition to securing an improved supply, transmission lines will need to be greatly expanded away from major population centers to achieve full rural electrification and to be able to utilize electric pumps for large-scale irrigation. This is expected to be a significant challenge to attempts to improve food security.
Besides wood, rammed earth and the like, construction materials for buildings and infrastructure projects largely has to be shipped in from elsewhere. Limestone and other minerals for cement production, as well as copious coal to fuel cement kilns, are available locally, rendering cement production quite viable if a plant were to be set up. This may be worthwhile as part of a large-scale development plan, but is not otherwise immediately necessary.
In terms of economic activity, expansions to tourism may be the easiest in the short term, with beautiful and well-maintained parkland and Victoria Falls as the primary attractions. Improving access and amenities for tourists will be key. Conservation considerations aside, safari tourism is likely to be the most profitable in the short term, but other forms of tourism are more sustainable. However, tourism has relatively little absolute potential for growth. Once food security is established, excess agricultural capacity may be used for export to the rest of the country and the surrounding region. Development plans featuring large scale irrigation especially may give agriculture a significant role in the future economic development of the region. Given the infrastructure improvements to support it, light industry such as textile production could also have a significant role to play.
The region contains significant opportunities to expand the mining sector. Gold, coal and diamonds are most significant at the moment, with relatively limited capacity for expansion in gold and diamonds but vast and underutilized reserves of coal. Large, completely untapped reserves of coal-bed natural gas are now believed to exist, though making use of them for more than stand-alone power generation would likely require extensive pipelines. Exploitable or potentially exploitable deposits of amethyst, opal, mica, copper, iron, tungsten, vanadium, bismuth, fluorine, tin, lead, silver and mercury among others also exist, with some relatively limited mining already in place. The vast majority of mineral wealth is concentrated in the Hwange district, though some deposits are found elsewhere and coal is spread a little more widely. Notably, the immediate vicinity of the Lubimbi hot springs in Binga district contain deposits of uranium minerals which are so far unexploited, a potential source of income but also a proliferation risk.
Taken together, there is significant potential to achieve food, water, power and economic self-sufficiency in Matabeland North, but an extensive and well-funded development plan will be needed involving significant investment. Agricultural improvements, in practice irrigation or an expansion of herding, are likely to be the highest priority, but sustainable improvement of conditions will require a multifaceted approach, with improvements in power and transportation infrastructure as a major component and expansions to mining and light industry providing a sustained source of income and non-agricultural jobs. Improvements to healthcare and education, largely outside of the scope of this report, will then be able to follow where today they might have limited reach and suffer from infrastructure limitations.
You close the binder and nod thoughtfully. There may be some potential here, if you choose to go that route.
Prospects for Self-Sufficiency: Matabeland North
Executive Summary
Major challenges towards local self-sufficiency in Matabeland North currently include limited access to clean water for domestic use in some areas, food scarcity, somewhat limited infrastructure, and minimal export-oriented economic activity. Tourism, gold mining and agriculture are the major industries, with agriculture largely of a subsistence nature and limited by lack of water. Basic transportation infrastructure is adequate for present needs around most significant population centers, but decreases rapidly in more remote areas and may not be adequate for any substantial expansion of industry. Where electricity is available, supply can not meet the current demand and rolling blackouts are common.
A large majority of land area in Matabeland North features favorable hydrogeology, with large, reasonably easily accessible groundwater reserves and good water quality. Rural communities typically obtain water from boreholes by means of a hand pump, with electric pumps increasingly present in urban areas. Old equipment and poor maintenance has lead to increasing failures in rural water sources, suggesting that new or replacement well pumps may play an important role in future aid or development efforts. In many regions, groundwater is sufficient to supply significant irrigation projects, if the pumps, electricity and irrigation equipment were to be provided. This, if carried out on a sufficient scale, would largely address the province's food production difficulties. For more information, see the included figure or the British Geological Survey's report on the hydrogeology of Zimbabwe.
Food insecurity in the region is largely due to limited available water. Agriculture is primarily of a subsistence nature and often can not adequately supply the nutritional needs of the farmers. Little room for productive mechanization currently exists because of limited infrastructure and fuel availability. Herding, once a much larger component of the province's agriculture than it currently is, can better make use of much of the region's land than plant-based agriculture in the absence of additional irrigation. Current recommendations for increasing food security include introducing center-pivot irrigation or other well-based irrigation techniques, and encouraging increased cattle or goat herding in otherwise marginal land, with modern farming techniques potentially being introduced in the future pending improved infrastructure and a more developed local economy.
Transportation infrastructure consists of the Victoria Falls – Bulawayo railroad line, part of the Bulawayo - Francistown line, a handful of railway connections to communities or mining sites off of the main line, and a sparse network of (often unpaved) roads, as well as a handful of small airports. Communities of significant size are typically adequately served to meet current demand, but little infrastructure exists in remote areas, and expansions will likely be needed to accommodate any substantial new economic activity. Improvements in road quality will be key, and any significant new mining, industrial or export-oriented agricultural ventures will likely be best served by railway connections where existing lines are available in the vicinity. Access to remote rural communities can likely be best improved by expansion of the road network and regular trucks and buses for goods and transportation.
Power is provided almost exclusively by the Hwange Thermal Power Plant, a coal plant run off of locally produced coal. Water for the plant's boilers and cooling towers is piped from the Zambezi River, with significant excess capacity in the pipeline but limited excess capacity in the on-site demineralization plant. Demand exceeds capacity and rolling blackouts are commonplace. The vast coal reserves in the region allow for almost arbitrary expansion of the capacity, given sufficient funding. Expansions to the existing plant would likely be easiest due to the infrastructure and water supply already in place, but there is also the potential for coal-fired plants elsewhere in the province. Additionally, there is significant untapped hydroelectric potential on the Zambezi river along the border with Zambia, and there is evidence of large reserves of coal-bed natural gas which could be used as an alternate fuel. In addition to securing an improved supply, transmission lines will need to be greatly expanded away from major population centers to achieve full rural electrification and to be able to utilize electric pumps for large-scale irrigation. This is expected to be a significant challenge to attempts to improve food security.
Besides wood, rammed earth and the like, construction materials for buildings and infrastructure projects largely has to be shipped in from elsewhere. Limestone and other minerals for cement production, as well as copious coal to fuel cement kilns, are available locally, rendering cement production quite viable if a plant were to be set up. This may be worthwhile as part of a large-scale development plan, but is not otherwise immediately necessary.
In terms of economic activity, expansions to tourism may be the easiest in the short term, with beautiful and well-maintained parkland and Victoria Falls as the primary attractions. Improving access and amenities for tourists will be key. Conservation considerations aside, safari tourism is likely to be the most profitable in the short term, but other forms of tourism are more sustainable. However, tourism has relatively little absolute potential for growth. Once food security is established, excess agricultural capacity may be used for export to the rest of the country and the surrounding region. Development plans featuring large scale irrigation especially may give agriculture a significant role in the future economic development of the region. Given the infrastructure improvements to support it, light industry such as textile production could also have a significant role to play.
The region contains significant opportunities to expand the mining sector. Gold, coal and diamonds are most significant at the moment, with relatively limited capacity for expansion in gold and diamonds but vast and underutilized reserves of coal. Large, completely untapped reserves of coal-bed natural gas are now believed to exist, though making use of them for more than stand-alone power generation would likely require extensive pipelines. Exploitable or potentially exploitable deposits of amethyst, opal, mica, copper, iron, tungsten, vanadium, bismuth, fluorine, tin, lead, silver and mercury among others also exist, with some relatively limited mining already in place. The vast majority of mineral wealth is concentrated in the Hwange district, though some deposits are found elsewhere and coal is spread a little more widely. Notably, the immediate vicinity of the Lubimbi hot springs in Binga district contain deposits of uranium minerals which are so far unexploited, a potential source of income but also a proliferation risk.
Taken together, there is significant potential to achieve food, water, power and economic self-sufficiency in Matabeland North, but an extensive and well-funded development plan will be needed involving significant investment. Agricultural improvements, in practice irrigation or an expansion of herding, are likely to be the highest priority, but sustainable improvement of conditions will require a multifaceted approach, with improvements in power and transportation infrastructure as a major component and expansions to mining and light industry providing a sustained source of income and non-agricultural jobs. Improvements to healthcare and education, largely outside of the scope of this report, will then be able to follow where today they might have limited reach and suffer from infrastructure limitations.
You close the binder and nod thoughtfully. There may be some potential here, if you choose to go that route.
Dossier 4: Cargo Aircraft
Aircraft Comparison
I'm seeing the "get an AN-2" suggestion floated a bunch, so I went on an obsessive wikipedia binge and have resurfaced bearing information on useful transport/cargo aircraft. This all basically assumes low and slow is all we need, and a multi-purpose utility aircraft with good rough field performance is what we are looking for. This is not to say that something like this should be our highest priority, just trying to figure out what our best options are if we want to go down this road. In practice, what we can or can't actually get will probably be as much about GM rulings as our preferences, if not more.
The AN-2 has a lot to recommend it. It's an excellent largeish bush plane, well suited to short, unimproved runways and remarkably rugged. Not all that widely available in Africa, but that's a surmountable problem. 12 passengers, which is certainly enough to be useful. No ramp or large cargo door, which is unfortunate.
Some other good candidates:
AN-14: Tried unsuccessfully to replace the AN-2. Seats 8. Good STOL performance. Rarer than the AN-2, and very few in Africa.
BN-2 Islander: A utility and transport aircraft with room for 9 passengers widely used as a regional airliner. Decent STOL performance and can operate off of a fairly rough runway, but not really a bush plane. Freight versions exist. They seem to be reasonably common in Africa.
DHC-2 Beaver: An absolutely legendary bush plane, mostly in the context of Alaska and Canada. Some variants will seat up to 11, but most seat more like 7. Can carry 2000 lbs, and has good sized cargo doors (for a plane its size) on each side. Excellent STOL performance. There are some in Africa, with both military and civil operators.
DHC-3 Otter: A fine bush plane, though seating one or two less than the AN-2. Not too widely used in Africa, but more so than the AN-2. Think beaver, but a bit bigger.
DO-28: A twin engine STOL utility aircraft with only 7 passengers, so a bit smaller. There seem to be plenty in Africa, but mostly military.
Noorduyn Norseman: A bushplane with seats for 10 passengers and similar characteristics to the otter. Very few if any in Africa.
PC-6 Porter: A utility aircraft with 10 seats with good STOL performance well suited for rough, unimproved airstrips. There are only a few operators in Africa, all of them military. A trapdoor can be installed in the floor of the cabin, which is typically used for supply drops or mounting surveillance equipment.
If we want to go smaller, we're looking at something for observation, smuggling small quantities of something or transporting one or two people, rather than a real cargo or transport aircraft. Any decent bush plane will get the job done, so whatever will blend in locally is probably best. Pretty much any of the small aircraft people associate with Piper or Cesna will do the job well.
If we want to go a little bigger:
AN-28 and PZL M28: A stretched AN-14 with various improvements. Seats up to 19. Good STOL performance. At least some versions have a rear cargo ramp. Fairly rare, but some are in Africa.
C-212 Aviocar: An STOL cargo aircraft and short-haul airliner. Passenger versions seat up to 28. Has a cargo ramp and is well suited for skydiving. The US Army Special Operations Command and Blackwater apparently like them for many of the tasks we might use them for. There are a number of military operators in Africa (including Zimbabwe), but no civil ones as far as I can tell.
DC-3 / C-47 Skytrain: Designed as an airliner, but in the 30s that meant sometimes operating off of what we'd consider a pretty bad grass strip today. The oldest aircraft in large-scale operation, with over 2,000 in active use today. Legendary for ruggedness, reliability and versatility. Needs a bit longer to land than most on this list, at least under sub-optimal conditions. Seats up to 32. No cargo ramp. There are plenty of them in Africa, so they ought to blend in and parts will be available.
DHC-6 Twin Otter: A nice plane for short fields. 19 to 20 seats. No cargo ramp. Reasonably good for parachuting. There are a decent number in Africa, but not the most common aircraft there.
DHC-4 Carabou: Good short field performance and does fine on a grass strip. It's got a cargo ramp, and it can carry 32 troops, 24 paratroopers or two jeeps. There aren't many civil operators in Africa, but there several countries that will have just recently phased them out of military service, so they may be available. Not an especially quiet aircraft, and rare enough to be a bit distinctive.
DHC-5 Buffalo: Essentially a slightly expanded turboprop version of the DHC-4, with notably higher cargo capacity and apparently somewhat worse STOL performance. Not as widely available, but there are a few in Africa.
SC.7 Skyvan: 19 seat STOL aircraft normally used for short-haul freight or skydiving. Not that many around. It has a cargo ramp.
Short 330: A stretched SC.7 that seats 30. Most are built as airliners and don't have the ramp, but there's a cargo variant that does. Good short field performance, but probably not as good. Rare, and none in Africa.
Short 360: A slightly expanded Short 330 that seats 39. Also has a cargo version with a ramp. Probably has a little worse STOL performance. More common than the 330, with a couple in Africa.
If we want to go significantly bigger:
AN-24, AN-26, AN-32 and Xian Y-7: Closely related STOL airliners and military transports. They seat in the range of 40 to 50. They are good at short, unimproved fields by the standards of an aircraft their size, but don't expect them to take off quite as quickly as a Beaver or an AN-2. AN-24s and most Xian Y-7s are configured purely as transports, but AN-26s, -32s and some Xian Y-7s have a cargo ramp. AN-24s are reasonably common in Africa, AN-26s have some presence in mostly military operators, the others not so much.
AN-72 and AN-74: A turbofan powered replacement for the AN-24 and derivatives. Similar characteristics. All (or those not configured as airliners?) seem to have a cargo ramp. 52 passengers or 10 tons of cargo. Very good STOL performance for an aircraft its size. There are a few in Africa with both military and civilian operators.
DHC-7 "Dash 7": An STOL regional airliner that seats 50. No provisions for large cargo. Performance not far off from bush plane-like, supposedly. There are a few in Africa, but not common. 4 engine, so extra complexity, and the engine out performance is notably mediocre. Relatively quiet.
If we want to go a lot bigger:
IL-76. A soviet strategic airlifter that also sees a ton of use as a civilian cargo plane. Able to operate from relatively short, unpaved runways, but will still need more than the rest on this list. There are a bunch of them in Africa, many of them civilian. This is what we want if we need to fly a tank somewhere.
Edit: Added a couple more.
Edit 2: For questions about capacities on the larger end ("Can an AN-72 carry a PT-76?", etc. (answer is no.)), see this document: http://www.jofair.com/news/archives/2003-Freighter-Reference-Guide.pdf
Edit 3: a minor correction.
Edit 4: a correction on which AN-24 and AN-72 derivatives have cargo ramps.
I'm seeing the "get an AN-2" suggestion floated a bunch, so I went on an obsessive wikipedia binge and have resurfaced bearing information on useful transport/cargo aircraft. This all basically assumes low and slow is all we need, and a multi-purpose utility aircraft with good rough field performance is what we are looking for. This is not to say that something like this should be our highest priority, just trying to figure out what our best options are if we want to go down this road. In practice, what we can or can't actually get will probably be as much about GM rulings as our preferences, if not more.
The AN-2 has a lot to recommend it. It's an excellent largeish bush plane, well suited to short, unimproved runways and remarkably rugged. Not all that widely available in Africa, but that's a surmountable problem. 12 passengers, which is certainly enough to be useful. No ramp or large cargo door, which is unfortunate.
Some other good candidates:
AN-14: Tried unsuccessfully to replace the AN-2. Seats 8. Good STOL performance. Rarer than the AN-2, and very few in Africa.
BN-2 Islander: A utility and transport aircraft with room for 9 passengers widely used as a regional airliner. Decent STOL performance and can operate off of a fairly rough runway, but not really a bush plane. Freight versions exist. They seem to be reasonably common in Africa.
DHC-2 Beaver: An absolutely legendary bush plane, mostly in the context of Alaska and Canada. Some variants will seat up to 11, but most seat more like 7. Can carry 2000 lbs, and has good sized cargo doors (for a plane its size) on each side. Excellent STOL performance. There are some in Africa, with both military and civil operators.
DHC-3 Otter: A fine bush plane, though seating one or two less than the AN-2. Not too widely used in Africa, but more so than the AN-2. Think beaver, but a bit bigger.
DO-28: A twin engine STOL utility aircraft with only 7 passengers, so a bit smaller. There seem to be plenty in Africa, but mostly military.
Noorduyn Norseman: A bushplane with seats for 10 passengers and similar characteristics to the otter. Very few if any in Africa.
PC-6 Porter: A utility aircraft with 10 seats with good STOL performance well suited for rough, unimproved airstrips. There are only a few operators in Africa, all of them military. A trapdoor can be installed in the floor of the cabin, which is typically used for supply drops or mounting surveillance equipment.
If we want to go smaller, we're looking at something for observation, smuggling small quantities of something or transporting one or two people, rather than a real cargo or transport aircraft. Any decent bush plane will get the job done, so whatever will blend in locally is probably best. Pretty much any of the small aircraft people associate with Piper or Cesna will do the job well.
If we want to go a little bigger:
AN-28 and PZL M28: A stretched AN-14 with various improvements. Seats up to 19. Good STOL performance. At least some versions have a rear cargo ramp. Fairly rare, but some are in Africa.
C-212 Aviocar: An STOL cargo aircraft and short-haul airliner. Passenger versions seat up to 28. Has a cargo ramp and is well suited for skydiving. The US Army Special Operations Command and Blackwater apparently like them for many of the tasks we might use them for. There are a number of military operators in Africa (including Zimbabwe), but no civil ones as far as I can tell.
DC-3 / C-47 Skytrain: Designed as an airliner, but in the 30s that meant sometimes operating off of what we'd consider a pretty bad grass strip today. The oldest aircraft in large-scale operation, with over 2,000 in active use today. Legendary for ruggedness, reliability and versatility. Needs a bit longer to land than most on this list, at least under sub-optimal conditions. Seats up to 32. No cargo ramp. There are plenty of them in Africa, so they ought to blend in and parts will be available.
DHC-6 Twin Otter: A nice plane for short fields. 19 to 20 seats. No cargo ramp. Reasonably good for parachuting. There are a decent number in Africa, but not the most common aircraft there.
DHC-4 Carabou: Good short field performance and does fine on a grass strip. It's got a cargo ramp, and it can carry 32 troops, 24 paratroopers or two jeeps. There aren't many civil operators in Africa, but there several countries that will have just recently phased them out of military service, so they may be available. Not an especially quiet aircraft, and rare enough to be a bit distinctive.
DHC-5 Buffalo: Essentially a slightly expanded turboprop version of the DHC-4, with notably higher cargo capacity and apparently somewhat worse STOL performance. Not as widely available, but there are a few in Africa.
SC.7 Skyvan: 19 seat STOL aircraft normally used for short-haul freight or skydiving. Not that many around. It has a cargo ramp.
Short 330: A stretched SC.7 that seats 30. Most are built as airliners and don't have the ramp, but there's a cargo variant that does. Good short field performance, but probably not as good. Rare, and none in Africa.
Short 360: A slightly expanded Short 330 that seats 39. Also has a cargo version with a ramp. Probably has a little worse STOL performance. More common than the 330, with a couple in Africa.
If we want to go significantly bigger:
AN-24, AN-26, AN-32 and Xian Y-7: Closely related STOL airliners and military transports. They seat in the range of 40 to 50. They are good at short, unimproved fields by the standards of an aircraft their size, but don't expect them to take off quite as quickly as a Beaver or an AN-2. AN-24s and most Xian Y-7s are configured purely as transports, but AN-26s, -32s and some Xian Y-7s have a cargo ramp. AN-24s are reasonably common in Africa, AN-26s have some presence in mostly military operators, the others not so much.
AN-72 and AN-74: A turbofan powered replacement for the AN-24 and derivatives. Similar characteristics. All (or those not configured as airliners?) seem to have a cargo ramp. 52 passengers or 10 tons of cargo. Very good STOL performance for an aircraft its size. There are a few in Africa with both military and civilian operators.
DHC-7 "Dash 7": An STOL regional airliner that seats 50. No provisions for large cargo. Performance not far off from bush plane-like, supposedly. There are a few in Africa, but not common. 4 engine, so extra complexity, and the engine out performance is notably mediocre. Relatively quiet.
If we want to go a lot bigger:
IL-76. A soviet strategic airlifter that also sees a ton of use as a civilian cargo plane. Able to operate from relatively short, unpaved runways, but will still need more than the rest on this list. There are a bunch of them in Africa, many of them civilian. This is what we want if we need to fly a tank somewhere.
Edit: Added a couple more.
Edit 2: For questions about capacities on the larger end ("Can an AN-72 carry a PT-76?", etc. (answer is no.)), see this document: http://www.jofair.com/news/archives/2003-Freighter-Reference-Guide.pdf
Edit 3: a minor correction.
Edit 4: a correction on which AN-24 and AN-72 derivatives have cargo ramps.
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