Eurasia border countries ISOT to World War II
Trouble in the Caucuses ISOT
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World War II isot
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von hitchofen
Obsolescent Scandroid.
- Location
- Airstrip One, Oceania
Stalin starves the renegade republics out of existence. Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan will only get US/UK Lend Lease aid if Stalin permits it.
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- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
I think, for starters, it should be noted the problems with oil supplies that the USSR will face in the 44th year due to the loss of Baku. The second factor of influence will be the presence of an occupying army in Iran, while northern Iran receives local communist guerrillas and all that from Moscow. In essence, the Trios are surrounded by neutral or hostile countries.
The second factor of influence will be sharp catastrophic problems with most of the economy. The loss to the economy from the cessation of trade is commensurate with the share of trade. Simply put, these are losses and a reduction in the economy by 2-3-4 times occurring within weeks and months. There are no such number of oil refineries, foreign trade, spare parts. Georgia is deficient in energy systems in the summer, electricity will begin to disappear in houses. Mass panic of the population, which will be spurred on by the rapid emptying of shelves in stores. Most likely, either the collapse of the government in the conditions of mass demonstrations, or the formation of a military distribution economy. None of this will be kind to the population.
The third factor, the elephant in the room, is the presence of a nuclear power plant in Armenia. If all the factors above were not so influential, but the world's first nuclear power plant capable of plutonium production... Should I continue?
In any case, due to the logistics crisis, serious armed resistance even to the troops of 1944 is in big doubt. Despite tactics and training, none of the countries has the experience of mass mobilization in the current generation, just as they do not have their own military-industrial complex.
The prospects are sad and incomprehensible, from anarchy and the entry of Soviet troops to the start of a war in three directions "Axis-Moscow-Allies".
The second factor of influence will be sharp catastrophic problems with most of the economy. The loss to the economy from the cessation of trade is commensurate with the share of trade. Simply put, these are losses and a reduction in the economy by 2-3-4 times occurring within weeks and months. There are no such number of oil refineries, foreign trade, spare parts. Georgia is deficient in energy systems in the summer, electricity will begin to disappear in houses. Mass panic of the population, which will be spurred on by the rapid emptying of shelves in stores. Most likely, either the collapse of the government in the conditions of mass demonstrations, or the formation of a military distribution economy. None of this will be kind to the population.
The third factor, the elephant in the room, is the presence of a nuclear power plant in Armenia. If all the factors above were not so influential, but the world's first nuclear power plant capable of plutonium production... Should I continue?
In any case, due to the logistics crisis, serious armed resistance even to the troops of 1944 is in big doubt. Despite tactics and training, none of the countries has the experience of mass mobilization in the current generation, just as they do not have their own military-industrial complex.
The prospects are sad and incomprehensible, from anarchy and the entry of Soviet troops to the start of a war in three directions "Axis-Moscow-Allies".
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- Location
- Russia
Rule 2: Don’t Be Hateful - This is not mindful phrasing, especially at a time like this.
This is 1994, the Caucasians when still felt national superiority over russians, because they were rich and influental in USSR where they commanded Stalin's purges (Stalin himself was a Georgian), like Ukrainians now think of themselves as Aryan Masters because some 1000.years ago the Krivichi and Slovene tribes (proto-Russians) mixed with the Meria (proto-Мari) and other non-Slav tribes.
von hitchofen
Obsolescent Scandroid.
- Location
- Airstrip One, Oceania
Mostly 1970s and 1980s tech in 1994, most of it badly maintained and lacking trained personnel, and lots of disgruntled, hungry and armed Russians in Batumi and other places.
Stalin won't take kindly to his homeland trying to secede.
Diverting downtimer RKKA troops, armour & aircraft to defeat and occupy these renegade states in the Caucasus will drain troops away from Bagration, so the Wehrmacht are the net winners here.
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1. The first Karabakh war has just ended, Azerbaijan and Armenia have suffered heavy losses and depleted their stocks of military equipment, so it is not very difficult to capture them.
2. Armenians hate Turks, and Stalin tried to get the former Armenian provinces of Turkey. Yerevan may decide that revenge and land in exchange for loyalty to Moscow for 40 years is a good deal.
3.Do not forget this is a period of crisis and the influence of communists everywhere is quite large. And the elders may think that the war with Hitler - with whom they are young fighting right now, is more important than independence. The USSR will have support.
4. Both Hitler and the Western allies will quickly receive information about the atomic bomb. I have met information that Germany created an atomic bomb, but did not use it for the same reasons as chemical weapons. If this is a lie, then the war turns into a nuclear conflict.
5.The USSR is temporarily deprived of oil and stops the offensive, Germany calmly throws the army to the west and drops the landing in Normandy into the sea.
2. Armenians hate Turks, and Stalin tried to get the former Armenian provinces of Turkey. Yerevan may decide that revenge and land in exchange for loyalty to Moscow for 40 years is a good deal.
3.Do not forget this is a period of crisis and the influence of communists everywhere is quite large. And the elders may think that the war with Hitler - with whom they are young fighting right now, is more important than independence. The USSR will have support.
4. Both Hitler and the Western allies will quickly receive information about the atomic bomb. I have met information that Germany created an atomic bomb, but did not use it for the same reasons as chemical weapons. If this is a lie, then the war turns into a nuclear conflict.
5.The USSR is temporarily deprived of oil and stops the offensive, Germany calmly throws the army to the west and drops the landing in Normandy into the sea.
- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
2. Not only the Armenian provinces in Turkey, it is more difficult because Turkey is not a participant in the war. Stalin was also preparing the seizure of northern Iran, and both the occupation army and local authorities are preparing to the west of the Caspian Sea. This is a much more likely source for trade than a hypothetical war with Turkey.
3. Both yes and no. The bloody suppression of rallies in Baku, the beating of people in Tbilisi, etc. things overlapped with the political problems with the return to Russia of a large number of people after the end of the USSR. You can find a lot of "communists", but they will largely be a spectrum from red-brown to pink. In any case, orthodox communists will be sharply against Stalin, because his figure after the Twentieth Congress has never been positively covered in the USSR.
4. This is not true about Germany. I would say that they had neither a bomb, nor a way to drop it on the enemy, nor a way to create significantly more bombs. The American and British nuclear programs are much closer, especially when data on the design of the reactors leaks. This is the 90s, specialists in nuclear weapons or reactors work as sellers in the market. Someone would risk finding transport and getting to the West for political or social reasons.
5. The USSR can stop the offensive, but Germany will not easily stop D-Day. In any case, they will need to leave huge forces on the eastern front, support the occupation in the Balkans and repel hundreds of thousands of soldiers in France from the south and north. They will probably be able to stop the offensive on Belgium, but France will probably be lost, even if not completely.
It's not about territories, it's about principle. Iran is a Big Game with Great Britain and Armenians don't care about Persians. The Armenian Genocide took place only 30 years ago and Armenians remember perfectly well that the Turkish executioners are alive and thriving. The victorious first Karabakh war for Armenia in 1994 ended just yesterday. Don't forget it's Stalin. Under Stalin, private business was allowed (up to private military factories) and small-scale production was 50% private.
Communists and the economy are going through a crisis, and Stalin is an iconic figure in the USSR. We do not forget that the influence of elders is traditionally great in the Caucasus - and their young copies from 1944 are now killing Nazis at the front. Naturally, the presidents will be against it, but sympathizers of the USSR-1944 will be enough to neutralize and paralyze the resistance. Many people won't want to shoot their grandfathers.
I was referring to the works of Manfred von Ardenne. This scientist came to the USSR and is considered one of the fathers of the Soviet atomic bomb. Conspiracy theorists claim that the Ardennes atomic bomb project (which he later implemented or repeated in the USSR with the remnants of uranium, equipment and scientists) was more economical than the American version. Precedent - Germany did not use organophosphorus chemical weapons even on the verge of defeat. Even clearly realizing that they would personally die, the highest ranks of the Reich did not dare.
The USSR destroyed 7 out of 8 German divisions, taking into account those who surrendered to the Western Allies in the last days of the Reich. How many Germans were advancing in the Ardennes? If Hitler transfers at least 30% of the army to the west, the Allies will be lucky to evacuate part of the landing.
Communists and the economy are going through a crisis, and Stalin is an iconic figure in the USSR. We do not forget that the influence of elders is traditionally great in the Caucasus - and their young copies from 1944 are now killing Nazis at the front. Naturally, the presidents will be against it, but sympathizers of the USSR-1944 will be enough to neutralize and paralyze the resistance. Many people won't want to shoot their grandfathers.
I was referring to the works of Manfred von Ardenne. This scientist came to the USSR and is considered one of the fathers of the Soviet atomic bomb. Conspiracy theorists claim that the Ardennes atomic bomb project (which he later implemented or repeated in the USSR with the remnants of uranium, equipment and scientists) was more economical than the American version. Precedent - Germany did not use organophosphorus chemical weapons even on the verge of defeat. Even clearly realizing that they would personally die, the highest ranks of the Reich did not dare.
The USSR destroyed 7 out of 8 German divisions, taking into account those who surrendered to the Western Allies in the last days of the Reich. How many Germans were advancing in the Ardennes? If Hitler transfers at least 30% of the army to the west, the Allies will be lucky to evacuate part of the landing.
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- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
There are reasons why conspiracy theories remain conspiracy theories. In any case, Germany did not have a nuclear bomb in 1945. Even if they had it, they don't have a uranium source (without Canada, Kazakhstan or Congo) for new bombs.
I would also note that the fronts are not working "transfer 30% army." Logistics is being bombed, there is a shortage of fuel and rolling stock in the country, half of the steel in the country goes to repair the infrastructure, and at the same time you need to increase logistics by more than 30%.
Usually it just doesn't work, exactly for this reason, the battles in North Africa were not very large in personnel. Logistics. And this is not taking into account the emptying of warehouses by a sharp increase in personnel, a drop in the quality of operations due to new faces, etc.
There are reasons why major offensive operations have been prepared for months. This is not to say that the Allies do not have troops to put a little more reserves. How true this is for the USSR. In any case, Germany, even having received tactical success, did not have reserves to prevent the encircled group from repeating Dunkirk, just as they would not have the forces to attack Paris.
They would have gained months, maybe a year of time, but not "to return all that is lost." It doesn't work that way.
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Germany has enough uranium to make several dozen atomic bombs. Where will "business" people with information carriers run to in 1944?! The only option is Turkey, from where you can get to the Western allies. But there is traditionally a strong German influence in Turkey.
I think the Reich will intercept some of the refugees. Even if the German atomic bomb is a myth, Hitler will have enough information to make nuclear charges by the end of 1944. Yes, the USA is almost safe (although there were experiments with German ballistic missiles to bombard New York), but the USSR and England will come under attack. Let me remind you that in 1914-1918 Germany quietly transferred millions of soldiers from west to east in weeks with zero role of cars. Do not forget, the Eastern Front has temporarily stopped devouring resources.
If the Soviet army has not captured the oil fields of Romania and Hungary, there is no shortage of fuel. If the Germans have time and information from the future, they bring their anti-aircraft missiles to mind and close the sky of the Reich.
Yes, in the end it will not save them, the United States will set up the production of atomic and hydrogen bombs and burn out Germany. Although if the Reich is also able to produce working intercontinental ballistic missiles and install atomic or thermonuclear warheads and, Germany can count on a peace treaty.
Damn it, the Germans can even count on victory - if they figure out how to construct a cobalt bomb or shoot a hydrogen bomb at Yellowstone. The USSR in 1945 almost exhausted its mobilization capabilities. Mutual extermination is most likely. If the Reich uses atomic weapons, the Allies will start flooding Germany with chemical weapons. Everyone died shorter.
How will Germany make nukes? It was nowhere close OTL, and it had nowhere near the theoretical knowledge needed. Most refugees aren't going to have any knowledge about nuclear weapons beyond "they exist", and anyone educated enough to know more will also know that going to Nazi Germany is a Very Bad Idea.
And I really don't think Stalin will just stop all operations in the Eastern Front: he might divert a few armies from Southwestern Ukraine, but in two weeks he'll likely start Bagration anyways and wipe out Army Group Center.
So, no, the Nazis are doomed. Even if they magically knew how to make nukes, they'll have to actually build and deploy them, and early Hiroshima-type nukes weren't enough to kill whole armies yet. Even if Hitler had a dozen nukes ready, by summer 1944 he's going down, Caucasus or no Caucasus.
Also, I wouldn't discount a coup or something in some of the ISOTed countries to rejoin the Soviets: the vast majority of Azerbaijan voted to stay in the USSR in 1991, and Abkhazia/South Ossetia will probably try to rejoin it as soon as they notice the ISOT. The only one of these countries that shares a border with a non-USSR country (North Iran was under Soviet occupation) is Armenia with Turkey, who... let's say, don't have very good relations, especially considering this is just a couple decades after the Armenian Genocide. So they might try to make a deal with Stalin rather than risking getting crushed.
The absorption of the Caucasus-1994 by the USSR-1944 is almost inevitable, I agree, and this means that many criminals and high-ranking renegade communists will try to escape. But what is the value in 1944? Gold and information about the future. All the fugitives need is to visit specialized libraries, rob physics professors from universities, files of scientific journals, pick up documentation from military garrisons, etc. Do not forget, at this time previously secret documents in the USSR can be bought at the flea market. Where will the fugitives run? In the north of the USSR, in the west and east of the sea, in the southeast of the Soviet occupation zone in Iran. There remains the southwest, Turkey, where German intelligence is actively working. Considering how many fugitives there will be, German intelligence will bring documents from the future to Berlin with suitcases. This will greatly push the progress of military equipment. Germany has a lot of promising weapons projects that are ahead of their time, but suffer from a "childhood disease".
- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
The most valuable thing is one laptop. Computing power is relevant even in 1994. Calculations for atomic bombs, jet planes, submarines, etc. will be clearly more valuable than some gold.
The second most important resource will be atlases and reference books. Especially with minerals and oil. Again, tiny size and huge importance for countries.
The third is the actual names of all Soviet spies in Western countries, because the archives were opened three years ago in '94.
I would also note your strange idea that Turkey is generally a country with only German intelligence. This is not the First World War, Turkey has the influence of both countries. There is an army of Allies in Syria, and they themselves have just proved that there will be no new Gallipoli. Also, no one wants to take into account the presence of modern aviation in the Trio, one large airliner is enough to, in fact, elusively leave the airspace of the countries.
The flight altitude of 10,000 meters at a speed of 600-700 km / h is impossible to intercept with the technologies of 1944 in flight.
I strongly doubt that in the Caucasus in 1994 there are many laptops with useful programs and, most importantly, data carriers with the necessary data. There is very specific information in libraries, but these are tons of books and magazines. Atlases and reference books are relevant in the long run, but first we need to end the war.
Turks are not idiots. Because the common border with the USSR and Armenia-1994 (which just won the first Karabakh war) hints that Turkey will live until the end of the war and it is good if the USSR captures them. Because if they are Armenians... Stalin dealt with all the countries that bit off part of Russia's territory during the civil war - except Turkey. And the Turks also exterminated Russians, Greeks and Armenians in the captured provinces. The only way out for Ankara is to make the USSR not up to the Turks. Considering that the Western allies are friends with the USSR until Japan is defeated (by the way, in 1945 the USA and England allowed the seizure of the Straits and eastern Anatolia by the USSR), the Turks' ally is obvious.
The question is not about the airliner, the question is about navigation and the qualities of airfields in 1944. The Tu-154 weighs 3 times more than the B-17.
Turks are not idiots. Because the common border with the USSR and Armenia-1994 (which just won the first Karabakh war) hints that Turkey will live until the end of the war and it is good if the USSR captures them. Because if they are Armenians... Stalin dealt with all the countries that bit off part of Russia's territory during the civil war - except Turkey. And the Turks also exterminated Russians, Greeks and Armenians in the captured provinces. The only way out for Ankara is to make the USSR not up to the Turks. Considering that the Western allies are friends with the USSR until Japan is defeated (by the way, in 1945 the USA and England allowed the seizure of the Straits and eastern Anatolia by the USSR), the Turks' ally is obvious.
The question is not about the airliner, the question is about navigation and the qualities of airfields in 1944. The Tu-154 weighs 3 times more than the B-17.
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Also, by June 1944 Turkey is only eight months away from actually joining the Allies. They certainly weren't very pro-German.
- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
This is the Soviet school of aviation, which in the absolute majority of cars relied on a combination of electrical and analog systems. Heavy, uncomfortable and reliable. Exactly the same is true for pilots, including cargo aviation pilots. They flew to Afghanistan with mediocre air support. In any case, Soviet IL-76s can easily get to Cairo, just like the AN-12 or AN−22. All of them are adapted for landing on the ground, and there are not so many problems with landing in the desert. There were many unpaved airfields in the USSR. The Tu-154 is enough to take off from the Caucasus and land in London.
You do not take into account the presence of huge stocks of literature from the USSR in private collections. The low price of books in the presence of a fairly affordable higher education at the end of the USSR led to the presence of huge collections on any topic. A complete set of BSE, an analogue of Britannica, can quite easily occupy an entire wall in someone's house. And you don't understand, data is secondary to the computing power of computers. On 1944, the calculations are made by hands on the result. Even one computer will replace entire cities and save years of research, including military technology. Especially military and space.
You strangely combine "USSR will invade Turkey" and "USSR has no forces to attack Germany." Yes, the USSR has claims on Turkey, although formally in the early years Ankara and Moscow had good relations, because of which they had no border conflicts. The USSR has no forces for a major amphibious operation to Turkey, since the last such Kerch-Eltigen amphibious operation in the 43rd ended in failure. The landings on the Kuriles in the 45th will also be bloody. The Red Army does not have a good landing experience on open beaches and without the Caucasus, the invasion of Turkey looks improbable.
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Planes can fly to London and Egypt. But who will fly in them? Presidents, ministers and their family members. Who will seize the computer and archives? Former KGB who decide to escape to the West. But what should the rulers of provinces, cities, businessmen and leaders of criminal families do? In the USSR, they will be executed or sent to Siberia. They won't let you on the plane to the president. So these people will grab the sources of information and run through Turkey to the west to the delight of the Turks and Germans. In a couple of weeks, the Turks will realize that if they do nothing, Stalin will not allow the re-appearance of a launch pad for American missiles at the borders of the USSR, and the Armenians will want Turkish blood. Of course, allies can give guarantees... but in 1944 the Allies would be desperately trying to hold on to France.
"The USSR will invade Turkey" - after the victory over Germany. In real history, in 1945, the USSR did not manage to capture the Straits and eastern Anatolia, but a stronger USSR with nuclear weapons in alliance with a very belligerent Armenia-1994 will almost certainly do it. "The USSR does not have the forces to attack Germany" - in 1944, after the USSR-1944 loses Baku oil, all military operations will be stopped due to lack of fuel. When the USSR-1944 returns the oil fields, the situation with gasoline will even get better, but this is a waste of time. Naturally, the invasion of Turkey will take place overland. And Turkey will require much less forces than Germany and its allies. Especially if the invasion is supported by the national minorities of Turkey who suffered from the genocide.
- Location
- Moscow
- Pronouns
- He
You have strange ideas about stupidity. Of course, the elites will be complete idiots and will not take anything that would be valuable to Allies like archives, electronics, medicines or other equipment. They will fight like mad dogs for the sake of an obscure goal, knowing about the fate of many people after the war whom Allies handed over to USSR.
We still haven't figured out exactly how the Germans suddenly get excellent intelligence in Turkey... When everyone around knows that D-Day will be successful, as well as that Germany will lose the war. This is a somewhat funny dichotomy. You do not take into account the moral factor of the realization that both the Reich and the USSR will fall, and the impact of this fact on the population. There will be no good future, there will be a collapse of the economy or occupation. Exactly the same as information about the Holocaust, famine, collectivization, etc. crimes will have a significant impact. I am not sure that Stalin will stay in power with such accusations, to begin with. He is the first among equals and his power exists because the Politburo can never be united.
Also, there will most likely be no stopping the offensive, because the USSR has already concentrated significant forces on the border. They have several weeks or months of stocks due to lend-lease, extraction in the Urals, etc. of things. But after the end of these reserves, the USSR will stop for a long time due to gradual adaptation to other oil production technologies. Starting with such a trifle that the deposits of 1994 are much more depleted and will yield less oil.
This will resemble the Reich in many ways, only in the case of the USSR, aviation will not bomb Romania and burn oil production to minimum values. By the way, knowledge of conspiracies in the German headquarters will probably damage the Reich offensive more, due to mass purges of officers, than any offensive. In the end, thousands of officers and hundreds of thousands of soldiers of the Reich will then serve in the FRG and the GDR. It is unlikely that Hitler will like it.
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Stop: This Is Not Mindful
this is not mindful
So, I want to explain why you're being infracted for Rule 2 in this post.
First, it bears saying that there is a legitimate and interesting discussion to be had about how differing readings of the chicken bones about the deep history of Eurasia have informed various political movements on the far right. This definitely includes the far right in Ukraine, along with the far right every where else. There is also a legitimate discussion to be had about how various political orientations in Ukraine, both on the right and not on the right, have sought to emphasise the "Europeanness" of Ukraine for various reasons, since Euromaidan and the 2014 invasion, but arguably going back to 19th century nationalist movements or earlier.
What is not legitimate or mindful is to say that "Ukrainians" plural, I.E. most or all Ukrainians by a plain reading, see themselves as "Aryan Masters". This would be really not ideal under normal circumstances, but during a war of aggression by Russia where multiple crimes against humanity have been committed under the banner of "denazification", this becomes a great deal more problematic. This does not so much stumble as leap into the arms of Russian rhetoric justifying their war effort, including a very real battle of disinformation and counter-disinformation being fought on the internet right now.
I realise this was probably not your intent; if I thought it was, then it would have been escalated higher. But we all have a responsibility to be mindful in how we post, especially in a time like this, because of how our posts can be read by others. So I have no choice but to give you a standard infraction Rule 2. Please be a bit more careful in the future.
Thanks for your time.
First, it bears saying that there is a legitimate and interesting discussion to be had about how differing readings of the chicken bones about the deep history of Eurasia have informed various political movements on the far right. This definitely includes the far right in Ukraine, along with the far right every where else. There is also a legitimate discussion to be had about how various political orientations in Ukraine, both on the right and not on the right, have sought to emphasise the "Europeanness" of Ukraine for various reasons, since Euromaidan and the 2014 invasion, but arguably going back to 19th century nationalist movements or earlier.
What is not legitimate or mindful is to say that "Ukrainians" plural, I.E. most or all Ukrainians by a plain reading, see themselves as "Aryan Masters". This would be really not ideal under normal circumstances, but during a war of aggression by Russia where multiple crimes against humanity have been committed under the banner of "denazification", this becomes a great deal more problematic. This does not so much stumble as leap into the arms of Russian rhetoric justifying their war effort, including a very real battle of disinformation and counter-disinformation being fought on the internet right now.
I realise this was probably not your intent; if I thought it was, then it would have been escalated higher. But we all have a responsibility to be mindful in how we post, especially in a time like this, because of how our posts can be read by others. So I have no choice but to give you a standard infraction Rule 2. Please be a bit more careful in the future.
Thanks for your time.