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Toyotomi Hideyoshi invades Spain in 1592

Zor

Zor

More of a Zor than You
In this scenario, in 1591 a strange device is found in Tottori Domain by farmers digging in the mud which looks like three plinths about 2 meters tall facing each other on an equilateral triangle triangle 16 meters to a side with a forth plinth six meters away made of some strange metal. When someone touches the forth plinth, it shows a holographic globe with sixteen icons scattered about the planet. Of these fourteen are black while two are Blue. One over a map of japan, one in Spain in Inland Galicia (though with a few odd characters nearby). When someone puts their hand through icon on Galacia, the three plinths come to life, glow, fire off a few beams of light into their center and then move apart, opening a vertical triangular wormhole about 12 meters to a side connecting these two locations. One of which is in a forest far away from anyone. A similar device is found in the mud on the other side, but the control plinth is inoperable. After about two hours the portal closes, but it can easily be restarted. The portal can also be shut down by putting one's hand onto a red triangle icon. Some samurai scout out the area and find a village within a few hours ride. Some villagers (including a priest and a local knight's family) are taken back for questioning, in which the Japanese manage to work out where the other side is. The local Daimyo then shuts it down for the time being.

Word of this gets to Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who is intrigued by the prospects that this has. As such he makes an adjustment to his invasion plans which involves crossing out the words "Korea" and replacing them with "Spain". He musters up his armies of 150,000 battle hardend Samurai and Ashigaru and prepares to have them march through the portal. He also has a small castle built around it on the Japan side including some fortifications around the control panel so that if worse comes to worst the gate can be cut so that Spaniards can not get back. He also plans on building a fortress on the Spain Side once he can get enough local peasants to do so.

Choson Korea and Ming China give zero fucks about this whole kurffle. The Prodestants will view this event as god's wrath brought down on the papists for their corruption.

What happens?

Zor
 
Tapas becomes very popular in Japan while Sushi enters the Spanish diet.

The whole invasion becomes a clusterfuck when internal Japanese politics stillborns the invasion.
 
Aren't the Japanese already using Line tactics that the Dutch would use against Spanish tercios twenty years later?

Hmm, the only issue is the more shock-oriented European cavalry and cannons.

Give the Japanese a crash course on cannonry- or a mercenary artillery/sieger unit and I say they can stand a chance there.
 
inawarminister said:
Aren't the Japanese already using Line tactics that the Dutch would use against Spanish tercios twenty years later?

Hmm, the only issue is the more shock-oriented European cavalry and cannons.

Give the Japanese a crash course on cannonry- or a mercenary artillery/sieger unit and I say they can stand a chance there.
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If I remember correctly, the Takeda figured out European side cavalry prior to this invasion, and the Oda managed to figure out how to counter then fairly effectively - as demonstrated by him wiping out the Takeda army. So I doubt the European cavalry would be too much of a problem.

Also, I'm not sure about cannons specifically, but weren't there more guns in Japan than in Europe at the end of sengoku jidai? That gives an infantry advantage to Japan. And although I can't speak to numbers, I'm fairly sure that Japan had at least a few cannons during that time period. Not sure where there artillery advantage goes, although I suspect Europe by a fairly large margin.
 
Hydroplatypus said:
If I remember correctly, the Takeda figured out European side cavalry prior to this invasion, and the Oda managed to figure out how to counter then fairly effectively - as demonstrated by him wiping out the Takeda army. So I doubt the European cavalry would be too much of a problem.

Also, I'm not sure about cannons specifically, but weren't there more guns in Japan than in Europe at the end of sengoku jidai? That gives an infantry advantage to Japan. And although I can't speak to numbers, I'm fairly sure that Japan had at least a few cannons during that time period. Not sure where there artillery advantage goes, although I suspect Europe by a fairly large margin.
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Most Japanese cavalry was a deal lighter than the cuirassiers who were concurrent in Europe of the time, and the shock action with a pistol volley preceding a charge in ranks was found to be very effective against lancers such as the Takeda deployed.

The Japanese were enthusiastic and prolific adopters of the arquebus, developing the matchlock to perhaps it's greatest height, and refining the tactics for utilising them, so that, as you say, they had the highest per capita ratio of arquebuses in the world at one point, but they really didn't take up artillery to any great extent, possibly due to the terrain of Japan. Hence quite a lot of sieges in the Sengoku Jidai.

Strategically, while the Japanese have excellent firearm-equipped infantry, their deficit in cavalry and artillery would likely be the cause of problems in invading a region they're totally unfamiliar with, and which possesses a great deal of fortifications, particularly when so reliant on a single point for logistics.
 
Ironanvil1 said:
Strategically, while the Japanese have excellent firearm-equipped infantry, their deficit in cavalry and artillery would likely be the cause of problems in invading a region they're totally unfamiliar with, and which possesses a great deal of fortifications, particularly when so reliant on a single point for logistics.
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If the Japanese didn't have good artillery, then artillery would probably be the largest problem when invading Spain. The entire war might depend on how many cannons they can capture early in the war, and how quickly they can figure out how to use them. If the difference in Cavalry was really that large, then it might also make some difference. Would Japanese guns work against Spanish Cavalry? For that matter, how large is the Spanish army in this period, and more specifically how much cavalry do they have?

However there is are two major advantages that Japan has. The first is that Spain is currently in the middle of the Anglo-Spanish war. I know absolutely nothing about this war, but I imagine that having to fight two wars at once would be problematic for Spain. More so if Japan manages to contact the other side of the war and start coordinating their movements.

The second major advantage is that - assuming the initial scouting didn't tip the Spanish off to what's coming - the Japanese will have total surprise on their side. Given that the Spanish armies are positioned to fight an entirely different enemy, I could see the Japanese absolutely steamrolling Spain in the early stages of the war, until they manage to reposition themselves to fight the Japanese effectively.
 
The Japanese were severely troubled by rudimentary, weakly manned Joseon fortifications whose primarily defensibility was often more a feature of the local geography than the construction of their defenses. Most of these fortifications were ancient and little maintained. What advantage they did have was mural artillery that completely outclassed any of the small caliber guns the Japanese had in their arsenals. The Korean peninsula is also a relatively small region, yet despite the weight of numbers and the lack of opposition from competent forces Japanese progress was not overly impressive. It was soon stymied by the initial reaction force of outmoded Northern Ming troops. Habsburg defenses, by contrast, are going to be engineering nightmares and bristling with highly advanced guns the Japanese have no answer for.

Japanese armies are likely to convincingly win most field encounters, but European warfare was characterized by sieges for a reason. For all his armies Hideoyoshi won't be able to expand his footholds unless he can convincingly defeat European fortifications consistently. Field victories will come to nothing when sieges figuratively melt armies.

Of course, the Japanese are massively aided in this situation by not having lines of communication overseas. Spanish naval forces would normally be enormously troublesome, but this is an advantage that has been taken out of their deck by the circumvention of ports as a strategic necessity for Japanese armies to operate.
 
Korean fortifications are simply not very impressive compared to the standard on the European continent in 1592, where the trace italienne has been firmly established. The Japanese took a number of Korean defenses through simple escalade -- using a firing line of muskets to suppress the defenders, and then going over the top on ladders. Doubtless their skilled use of musketry and incredible willingness to engage in close-quarters combat contributed to their success, but I just can't see anything like that ever working on prepared, properly defended Spanish star forts bristling with cannon and muskets.

And if they can't take them by escalade, the Japanese simply do not have the siegecraft expertise or the cannon required to take and hold major defenses. I don't have a map of Spanish fortifications or anything like that, but I can't see Japanese gains being very extensive if their only option against major cities is to settle in for a starvation siege.

The best thing the Japanese have going for them in this scenario is that they aren't stuck using a precarious naval pipeline to carry troops and supplies. If any such naval supply was required, it would surely run into the exact same set of problems as with the invasion of Korea -- inferior ships with a dire lack of cannon. With no such limitation, though, ending the Japanese invasion will likely be much more problematic.

The wild card here is what the rest of Europe does. Spain doesn't have Ming China ready to play Big Brother and come smack down the Japanese. There are other nations who might come to their aid -- Holy Leagues against the infidels were still common in this period, in fact in another year The Long War against the Turks is set to kick off. But there's also plenty of people that would love to see Spain humbled, and though they might not openly help the infidel*Japanese they probably wouldn't feel obliged to stop them, either.

*although at this point some are, I believe, Christians. I'm not up on the history of Christianity in Japan, but I do know this is fairly close to the point in time when they were basically outlawed...??? That could cause some awkward religious politics -- nobody in Europe cared much what the Japanese did to converts, because they were on the other side of the world; but if they're invading Christendom...
 
Minow said:
The best thing the Japanese have going for them in this scenario is that they aren't stuck using a precarious naval pipeline to carry troops and supplies.
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This is the important part, really. The Japanese have a lot of men to make mistakes with. The Habsburgs just don't. The explosive growth of European armies in size hasn't happened yet; the Spanish armada with its 18,000 infantry was a massive effort on the part of the Habsburgs. Even if they can't storm fortifications, the Japanese can outright afford to let their men die in droves of starvation and disease simply to starve Habsburg fortifications into submission.
 
Minow said:
Korean fortifications are simply not very impressive compared to the standard on the European continent in 1592, where the trace italienne has been firmly established. The Japanese took a number of Korean defenses through simple escalade -- using a firing line of muskets to suppress the defenders, and then going over the top on ladders. Doubtless their skilled use of musketry and incredible willingness to engage in close-quarters combat contributed to their success, but I just can't see anything like that ever working on prepared, properly defended Spanish star forts bristling with cannon and muskets.

And if they can't take them by escalade, the Japanese simply do not have the siegecraft expertise or the cannon required to take and hold major defenses. I don't have a map of Spanish fortifications or anything like that, but I can't see Japanese gains being very extensive if their only option against major cities is to settle in for a starvation siege.

The best thing the Japanese have going for them in this scenario is that they aren't stuck using a precarious naval pipeline to carry troops and supplies. If any such naval supply was required, it would surely run into the exact same set of problems as with the invasion of Korea -- inferior ships with a dire lack of cannon. With no such limitation, though, ending the Japanese invasion will likely be much more problematic.

The wild card here is what the rest of Europe does. Spain doesn't have Ming China ready to play Big Brother and come smack down the Japanese. There are other nations who might come to their aid -- Holy Leagues against the infidels were still common in this period, in fact in another year The Long War against the Turks is set to kick off. But there's also plenty of people that would love to see Spain humbled, and though they might not openly help the infidel*Japanese they probably wouldn't feel obliged to stop them, either.

*although at this point some are, I believe, Christians. I'm not up on the history of Christianity in Japan, but I do know this is fairly close to the point in time when they were basically outlawed...??? That could cause some awkward religious politics -- nobody in Europe cared much what the Japanese did to converts, because they were on the other side of the world; but if they're invading Christendom...
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So a Crusade against the Nippoi?
 
Minow said:
The best thing the Japanese have going for them in this scenario is that they aren't stuck using a precarious naval pipeline to carry troops and supplies.
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On the other hand, they don't have any naval forces in-theatre either, and are off in the North Western corner of Spain, allowing the Spanish the ability to freely deploy forces by sea around them.

EDIT: From a quick google, Galicia of the period also seems to have been a predominately coastal economy, with cattle farming in the relatively undeveloped interior - both food sources that'd be hard for the Japanese to acquire, requiring greater logistics to be brought through the portal.
 
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Ironanvil1 said:
From a quick google, Galicia of the period also seems to have been a predominately coastal economy, with cattle farming in the relatively undeveloped interior - both food sources that'd be hard for the Japanese to acquire, requiring greater logistics to be brought through the portal.
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I'm not sure that the lack of development is going to present major difficulties for Japanese armies. Certainly, for a contemporary European army this would be challenging to overcome. However in the eyes of armies blooded in the Sengoku Jidai, where the treacherous terrain dictated the nature of logistics, Galicia is opportune ground. On mainland Japan or the Korean peninsula, the Japaneses had to rely on organized teams of human porters for supply lines, the only reliable help, which were commensurately short-legged. Nevertheless they sustained substantial, large armies in the field despite these limitations. In contrast, here the Japanese will find draft-animals in their logistics are now a plausible option in a region of rich pasturage filled with meat rations and replacement stock on the hoof, with all that implies.

If anything, it's Spanish counterattacks that will suffer the most difficulties from the nature of the region.
 
100thlurker said:
I'm not sure that the lack of development is going to present major difficulties for Japanese armies. Certainly, for a contemporary European army this would be challenging to overcome. However in the eyes of armies blooded in the Sengoku Jidai, where the treacherous terrain dictated the nature of logistics, Galicia is opportune ground. On mainland Japan or the Korean peninsula, the Japaneses had to rely on organized teams of human porters for supply lines, the only reliable help, which were commensurately short-legged. Nevertheless they sustained substantial, large armies in the field despite these limitations. In contrast, here the Japanese will find draft-animals in their logistics are now a plausible option in a region of rich pasturage filled with meat rations and replacement stock on the hoof, with all that implies.

If anything, it's Spanish counterattacks that will suffer the most difficulties from the nature of the region.
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I was thinking of the fact that unlike crops, cattle can be herded away alongside the Spanish, to the coastal settlements with the defences and naval supply lines to hold out and serve as entry points for Spanish forces.

The Spanish interior not being particularly developed would leave the Japanese attempting to organise supply from the rear using predominantly human porters to reach strategic targets.
 
The thing with this scenario is that Japan's tactical skills don't in the end matter. Their strategy is just so bad (like, they invaded Korea without having maps of Korea. They invaded Korea without having boats to cross rivers) that they're eventually going to fail anyway.

However they'll do incredible damage to Spain in the process.
 
Ironanvil1 said:
I was thinking of the fact that unlike crops, cattle can be herded away alongside the Spanish, to the coastal settlements with the defences and naval supply lines to hold out and serve as entry points for Spanish forces.
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It's not as if horses and oxen didn't exist in Japan to be used for trade and transport, it's just that the terrain limited their ability to use them in a military context. Here that's clearly not the case.

Livestock are easier to protect than fields for sure, but only in the context of local, regional defense insofar as they can be herded hiding places and strongpoints in a day's time. In the scheme of things, they're still a sedentarist resource. Attempting to move them en masse from the hinterland to the coasts is politically and socially untenable for a number of reasons, not the least of which because it's completely unsustainable and tantamount to destroying the herds.
 
I do appreciate that 19 posts in and the conversation is purely logistics and terrain without any Spanish steel vs katana nonsense.



Agree that contemporary European fortifications would absolutely bake Hideyoshi's brain. Their ability to degrade an impetuous attacking force was pretty formidable. Also worth considering is that even getting that 150,000 through the bloody portal itself is going to be a task. March them in twelve across and you still have 12,500 ranks of soldiers to come through, plus the army likely has a similar number of attendants and assorted camp followers, plus horses. Even the Romans would take several hours to get that force through to the other side. A lot of supplies are also going to have to filter through that point. I'm not sure how well the samurai classes would appreciate having to contend with a European cuisine (and squalor).

The surprise advantage the Japanese gain is rather mitigated by their inability to properly storm the castles their advantage gets them access too, I'd suspect.

Just for reference, population of Spain was about 8 million. Japan was about 12 million.
 
Ford Prefect said:
I feel like you're contradicting yourself a little here ...
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It's still incompetent because it turns out most of that ravenous army and the money you spent paying for that army belonged to your clan.

What is your clan going to do if some other clan whose name starts with T gets a ravenous army too? You blew yours and now you're kinda broke. :p
 
Seeing that I don't know enough about the Japanese side of this versus to give an informed opinion, I am going to concentrate in the Spanish side of things, particularly in the geographic element.



This is Galicia, which at the time had barely ~600,000 residents and even so hemorrhaged manpower during the period, because the idiosyncrasies of local inheritance traditions and land ownership resulted in insufficient food production for the population. The terrain is hilly and outright mountainous in the east and south of the region. It is an extremely wet area, heavily forested and with shit roads at this time (roads in the relevant period were generally shit all over the place, but Galicia's were particularly shit, to the point that many pilgrims headed for Santiago de Compostela left remarks about this point in journals).

Also, it is fairly full of fortifications.

Lots and lots of petty nobility in the region, all of whom had some kind of fortification. Of course, most were little more than glorified manors, but a number of small castles like Moeche still dot Galicia (and there were quite a few more back in the day).



Since it was also a border area and pirate raids were fairly common, pretty much all townships of any importance were walled. For some examples, the walls of Santiago de Compostela (in a map from the time period of this versus) and the walls of Lugo (built by the original Roman settlers, which have survived to this day).




Then, we have El Ferrol and La Coruña, which were very heavily fortified for the standards of the time, mostly because Ferrol was the single most important naval base of the entire Spanish crown.
 
While it appears that the Spanish fortifications are going to be one of the largest factors in this war, I wonder how heavily garrisoned they are going to be at this point in time. The Spanish armada from the time period had a total 0f 55,000 men mustered for it, but I am unable to find accurate numbers beyond this on the size of the 1951 Spanish army.

However given that they are fighting another war at the time, I would bet that most of these forts have a skeleton garrison at best. That might allow the Japanese to capture a few forts early on in the war, simply through force of numbers against poorly defended positions. While the Spanish would probably reposition themselves in time, the Japanese might be able to establish enough of a foothold to actually get the ball rolling.

Does anyone else here have any info on either Spanish army size, or how well garrisoned the forts were during the period?
 
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