After reading through the arguments, updating my vote to do Kick+Mill.
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
-[X] [Main] Kick the Megaproject (Pay 1 Stability, gain another Main action)
[X] [Main] Main Build Mill
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
Guaranteed completion of the megaproject = bonus econ, +1 Stability.
Remember, every -1 Centralization that we don't spend is +1 Stability via Enforce Justice. We stay on Restoration, and we are actually in a pretty good position. With -3 Centralization now, we'll have the space to double-main New Trails and still have the provinces do a secondary Enforce Justice.
This vote does bring us a little low in Art and Wealth, but Sacred Forest might even count as an engineering project. If not, we have plenty of art-boosters anyway, and have positive wealth income.