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Paths of Civilization

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bluefur87 said:
We can't afford this war to continue. The in between option is far too dangerous. Keep in mind that if we pull back, we have the ability to actually defend and just get out of this war.
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Except that this option lowers our legitimacy to the point where we'll need to do a mained war mission for every vassal under attack next turn or start the Divine Stewards tantrum spiral. It's not continuing the war that is not affordable.
 
Guys we should really take at least the middle option with we have reserves we should be at doublr digit martial and be able to rebuff the HK and TH
 
Carrnage said:
War Preparations
[X] [War] Withdraw all forces (-1 Legitimacy, Rulwyna becomes queen)

Warning: Under current system, cascade failure begins at end of turn Legit + Stability <= 0 (Legit 3, Stab -3; Legit 2, Stab -2; etc.). Low Centralization may change this from end of turn to a more sensitive form

What new designs are being developed by the merchants?
[X] [Boat] New design: Speed

A number of miners want to attempt to apply the mills to grind their ores
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)

The Stallions found something very interesting in a quarry and are asking for additional support to develop it
[X] [WC] Greater assistance (-3 Art, -2 Centralization, Stallions very pleased, ???)

The Sacred Forest Renewal seems to be on the verge of completion, but can the People afford it?
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)

How welcoming were the People of strangers in this time of trouble?
[X] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)


We didn't start no fires.
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That would take us to cascade fracture point if we rolled bad on refugees and took 1 point of stability damage from climate.

This is rolling for suicide.
 
pblur said:
1 point away from cascade collapse. Pretty ouchie.
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And that's assuming 3 Cent is still high enough that the "more sensitive to collapse" doesn't kick in. I don't think it will, but...

[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)

We'll still have 0-1 stability, 3 legitimacy from this. And draining econ from the people who're about to pick a fight with us right now? Pretty useful.

And we might need that extra 2-3 econ; our provinces might well end up still on Recovery next turn.
 
@Academia Nut What do the WC options do to the nearterm chance of a northern succession? Will making the Stallions happier offset the extra ability to revolt or no?
 
Plan: Oh my God everything is on fire!
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
Academia Nut said:
More seriously, this is more like the 4.2 kiloyear event, in that it is happening in the Middle Bronze Age, with one aberrant group having accelerated development in one area, causing increased trade dependency as the need for bronze increased faster than IRL.
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So, we're quite literally responsible for the spread of Bronze in our region? What?
 
Academia Nut said:
Hrmmm... right, that should be an option.
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The Xoh are sieged and are for all intensive purposes incapable of projecting any meaningful force correct? Even if they do have a military left, they can't afford to spare the manpower from repairing the fields or they'll suffer mass starvation and unsupported charioteers aren't really a threat to the Red Banner.

If our Chief is truly really good at martial, and we have enough evidence to be certain the TS and the HK are conspiring against us- what's stopping him from wheeling his armies around and slamming into the HK from the East? Even if he can't decisively sack the fertile flood plains, that puts a huge Ymaryn army that the HK can't afford to leave in being as they assault Redhill.

And if that's the case the Lowland minors, SS, and the HH can support Redhill against the TS.

Yeah, it involves convincing the King to quit the siege, but for other incredibly lucrative targets that he doesn't have to siege.

It just feels weird that the Ymaryn, who are something of a military juggernaut at this point, and who have an intelligent and aggressive military commander are going to sit back and let their enemies launch a coordinated assault when those two enemies are on opposite sides of the theater of war.

I get it kinda runs counter to voter sensibilities and general Ymaryn defensive mentality, but this is exactly IC for Ork!King if the evidence was remotely there. Hell, he probably wouldn't even demand that much proof.
 
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@Academia Nut, is it reasonable to say that the current refugees are mainly Xohyssiri and that the ones we don't take will settle down in the Highland Kingdom and Thunder Horse territory?
 
Academia Nut said:
Not as much, no, as there is a really good reason for it, but there may be unpleasant consequences if your vassals get knocked on their asses by the Xoh resurging.
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Why does this sound like a unholy understanding between Xoh, HK, and TS to humble us?

They are bounded by action limits i hope?
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

Bleh. I'd absolutely withdraw all forces if I thought tanking the Legitimacy hit was the only problem, but abandoning our vassals completely to retaliation is rather obviously dancing all over Lord's Loyalty. Leaving the mercs is a messy compromise but hopefully will tank the hit- we may lose Prestige if they lose though.

I am really, really reluctant to push it with the Centralization drop. Two is what we need, two is what we should aim for, especially as we don't know what the hell the Stallions have found.
 
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Raichu1972 said:
If we withdraw our main forces, will Nomad King go with them or we he stay in command of the Red Banner?
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He will command the Red Banner and the vassal forces unless everything is withdrawn, which is why he has to die for everything to be withdrawn. Vassals will fall back to their own territory to defend against the Xoh retaliation.

pblur said:
@Academia Nut What do the WC options do to the nearterm chance of a northern succession? Will making the Stallions happier offset the extra ability to revolt or no?
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Near term it should placate them quite well, but you should definitely move to improve the situation within the next three turns so that the next generation doesn't feel neglected and have more infrastructure. However, note that they will develop this anyway, this just helps them do it faster.
 
Umi-san said:
how is this buying time again
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On the basis of the WoGs from last update that giving the north goodies NOW would actually empower them to break away. I THINK that will be more important than them being 'happy' in terms of their likelihood to revolt.

The fact they aren't running this through the official government channels only reinforces that concern for me.

Edit: Annnnnd :ninja:
 
Playing conservatively here.

[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
We don't want to leave Redhills vulnerable, nor can we afford the risk of dropping Legitimacy.
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
BOATSBOATSBOATS! Not going to bother arguing about this, because the thread is allergic to boats.
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
Going with lesser here, because we can't afford to lose too much Centralization right now.
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
Going with lesser here, because giving them too much infrastructure will cause them to split away, but refusing to help will piss them off more.
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
We need to get this done.
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
We cannot afford a large hit to stability right now.
 
Academia Nut said:
Rulwyna the Younger knew about shadows. She had dwelt in the shadow of her ancestry for the past three decades. Through her father, her great-grandparents, grandparents, and father had all been kings and heroes of the People. Through her mother, she had been related to Dythuwyn, one of the most fearsome intellects of his age, and 'Uncle Dy' when her father had been killed and the world felt like it flipped upside-down. For the better part of fifteen years she had been a ball kicked between various factions to try to gain power and influence in Valleyhome, a potential heir to rally old cliques around. Her aunts and uncles proper had fought like hungry dogs over the pieces of what her father and grandmother had assembled, all while the new king was occupied killing people in the south. At some point she had realized that she could not escape the shadow of her ancestors, could not shine on her own merits, so she let herself fall into darkness completely. Shortly after she became an adult, she disappeared into a crowd and walked away from it all.
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:sad:
 
pblur said:
I'm not sure it's worth the -1 Legitimacy. That's a big deal because it both will require us to support our vassals better AND brings us closer to collapse.

If we take this option and roll bad on climate damage+refugees, we'll be at:
Stability -1
Legitimacy 2

1 point away from cascade collapse. Pretty ouchie.
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It's worth noting you are completely wrong.
Academia Nut said:
Stability
Stability 1 (confident)
Legitimacy 3 (max)
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My vote is for the least stability drop, meaning that we'll hit 0 stability at worst case scenario and be at 2 legitimacy.

Compared to what most people are voting for, at -1 Stability as worst case scenario and 3 legitimacy, it's the same. Hopefully we're all smart enough to take no more than 2 cent drop, because doing more than that would be disastrous. Even then, we're going to gain stability from the megaproject finishing.

Glassware said:
Except that this option lowers our legitimacy to the point where we'll need to do a mained war mission for every vassal under attack next turn or start the Divine Stewards tantrum spiral. It's not continuing the war that is not affordable.
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The difference in our plans is that I'm pulling out of the war. If we do not pull out of the war we will have to commit war actions again next turn. That means we'll either have to commit another [main] war action to war, and we'll have to put aside things like trails and palace, maybe only doing one, while we continue focusing on the war.

I'd like to spend this time putting out fires, not fighting a twice dammed war that we are getting little out of when we're, you know, on fire. Least you all forget, we have stuff to do next turn.
 
Academia Nut said:
Near term it should placate them quite well, but you should definitely move to improve the situation within the next three turns so that the next generation doesn't feel neglected and have more infrastructure. However, note that they will develop this anyway, this just helps them do it faster.
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How much do the Western Wall count as the north, as far as rebellion decisions go, given that they're rapidly creating infrastructure with their actions?

Oh, also:
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)
 
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I think
[] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)

and

[] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)

both have merit, but taking Greater Permission alongside 'they should help more' is too dangerous, and taking each lesser with 'accepted all who came' is less Econ than I think we need.
 
Academia Nut said:
Near term it should placate them quite well, but you should definitely move to improve the situation within the next three turns so that the next generation doesn't feel neglected and have more infrastructure. However, note that they will develop this anyway, this just helps them do it faster.
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Double main trails asap is my plan. -2 Econ, +2 Centralization, so we'll need at least 2 econ starting next turn.
 
pblur said:
On the basis of the WoGs from last update that giving the north goodies NOW would actually empower them to break away. I THINK that will be more important than them being 'happy' in terms of their likelihood to revolt.

The fact they aren't running this through the official government channels only reinforces that concern for me.

Edit: Annnnnd :ninja:
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I'd figured that it was from the high cent slowing our gov, but that makes sense.

@Academia Nut Will displeasing the ST by not providing aid make them more likely to want to depart?

Econ: 2 - 2 (cities) + 2 (minimal refugee) + 2 (Mill lesser) - 2 (megaproject) + 1 (megaproject) = 3. Order will probably be: cities -> refugees -> Megaproject -> Mill -> Megaproject.
 
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