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Paths of Civilization

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Going for fast analysis to get in early because this is SUPER fragile

Warning: Under current system, cascade failure begins at end of turn Legit + Stability <= 0 (Legit 3, Stab -3; Legit 2, Stab -2; etc.). Low Centralization may change this from end of turn to a more sensitive form

AN: Warning, hitting 0 Centralization will cause the government to reform as a City State Confederacy, likely triggering a civil war and societal collapse due to pre-existing tensions
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Okay, so relevant stats:
Stability 1 (confident)
Legitimacy 3 (max)
Centralization 5

We need to lose 2 points of Centralization for roads next turn, but we can't afford to go below 2 Centralization or things will get too dangerous.

War Preparations
[] [War] Hope the king wins quickly

Even if the King wins, we'd be massively overextended as a consequence of taking Xohy.

[] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner

Lord's Loyalty may kick in, but this SHOULD be enough to rebuff the Highlanders or Thunder SPeakers, but likely not both at once.

[] [War] Withdraw all forces (-1 Legitimacy, Rulwyna becomes queen)

Hits the system by assassinating the King. Very bad precedent, but also the safest.

[] [Boat] New design: Size

Bulk carrier

[] [Boat] New design: Speed

Warship

[] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness

Long distance and rough weather sailing(has benefits in that the current weather disruption favors this type)

A number of miners want to attempt to apply the mills to grind their ores
[] [Mill] Denied
[] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)

Oh good, we're working towards hammer mills.

The Stallions found something very interesting in a quarry and are asking for additional support to develop it
[] [WC] They can do it themselves (Stallions displeased)
[] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[] [WC] Greater assistance (-3 Art, -2 Centralization, Stallions very pleased, ???)

Reminder that this counts as Northern Infrastructure. Greater Assistance makes them much more able to break away.

The Sacred Forest Renewal seems to be on the verge of completion, but can the People afford it?
[] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[] [Main] Main New Settlement - Far Eastern Redhills
[] [Main] Main Expand Economy
[] [Main] Main Build Mill

FINISH IT, we have 1 Stability from this.

How welcoming were the People of strangers in this time of trouble?
[] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)
[] [Refugee] They should take in as many as they could (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, overcrowding)

Conservative probably. We can't risk it.

My vote:
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

End stats:
-Wealth 9-3 = 6
-Art 6-1-2-1 = 2
-Centralization(max 6, min 1): 5-2-1 = 2
-Economy 2+3+2-2 = 5
-Mysticism 14-2 = 12
-Stability 1-1 = 0

Have Rulwyna take over properly next turn with her contacts rather than assassinate. We need the Legitimacy too much, considering we can take a 1-2 Stability hit from weather and another 1-2 from being hit in Redhills.
 
Urk. Withdrawing our main forces seems like a good option for the military deal as it won't trigger Legtimacy problems and we don't really want to conquer the Xohyr- we can't administrate the territory this would likely give us.

The mining thing is straight up cost-benefit. I'm inclined to think it's a good idea as we desperately need to lower Centralization, but I admit the math is going to take some work.

Helping the Stallions will lower Centralization but may give them some kind of trade good they could use to gain economic independence from the South, depending on what it is. Risky, but denying them will piss them off.

On the one hand, our Centralization is all that's holding us together, apparently, and lowering it could have effects in terms of causing a crisis. On the other hand, our Centralization is sky-high right now and we kind of need to do something to make New Trails possible- Distribute land is another option but getting that vote through will painful.

I'm inclined to 'lesser' for both miners and Stallions so we can go New Trails along with finishing the megaproject. I'd be interested in checking the math and hearing other opinions however.
 
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Okay, so as a gut reaction, I'm thinking that we should not let Rulwyna usurp the kingship.

If she does, we will pull out of the front with the Xoh, and the Lowland Minors will almost assuredly pull away, starting the Divine Stewards and Lord's Loyalty stability cascade.

We also can't afford to show any weakness from the top of the government, or else our periphery states might start splitting off, sensing blood in the water.
 
Ignoring boats for now
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
get this piece of shit project done, protect our stability as much as possible, and get enough centralization room to road up a bit
 
Wait, people, please. Every hit to centralization is a huge gamble. Please do not just wildly declare it safe to go to a couple steps bellow max. We need to be very careful about this. Also be very careful about tanking any more stability hits through CA. We can not afford to screw this up. If we get any level of the mill, we should really, really, try to aim for taking in as few people as possible, since we won't be in super danger of econ collapse at that point.

Also, for those who aren't aware, sacred forest would give us a stability boost, so we really need to do that here.
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)
 
First off, this is one of those super hard votes. So:
[X] [War] Hope the king wins quickly
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [War] Withdraw all forces (-1 Legitimacy, Rulwyna becomes queen)

Which designs are being developed by the merchants?
[X] [Boat] New design: Size
[X] [Boat] New design: Speed
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness

A number of miners want to attempt to apply the mills to grind their ores
[X] [Mill] Denied
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)

The Stallions found something very interesting in a quarry and are asking for additional support to develop it
[X] [WC] They can do it themselves (Stallions displeased)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [WC] Greater assistance (-3 Art, -2 Centralization, Stallions very pleased, ???)

The Sacred Forest Renewal seems to be on the verge of completion, but can the People afford it?
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Main] Main New Settlement - Far Eastern Redhills
[X] [Main] Main Expand Economy
[X] [Main] Main Build Mill

How welcoming were the People of strangers in this time of trouble?
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[X] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)
[X] [Refugee] They should take in as many as they could (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, overcrowding)
 
drake_azathoth said:
Urk. Withdrawing our main forces seems like a good option for the military deal as it won't trigger Legtimacy problems and we don't really want to conquer the Xohyr- we can't administrate the territory this would likely give us.

The mining thing is straight up cost-benefit. I'm inclined to think it's a good idea as we desperately need to lower Centralization, but I admit the math is going to take some work.

Helping the Stallions will lower Centralization but may give them some kind of trade good they could use to gain economic independence from the South, depending on what it is. Risky, but denying them will piss them off.

On the one hand, our Centralization is all that's holding us together, apparently, and lowering it could have effects in terms of causing a crisis. On the other hand, our Centralization is sky-high right now and we kind of need to do something to make New Trails possible- Distribute land is another option but getting that vote through will painful.

I'm inclined to 'lesser' for both miners and Stallions so we can go New Trails along with finishing the megaproject. I'd be interested in checking the math and hearing other opinions however.

[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
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I'm pretty sure AN said that any extra land that Nomad King conquers would be folded into the Lowland Minors vassal state, so that's not as much of an issue.
 
VoidZero said:
The drop of 3 centralization may shift our government to city states.
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No, we'd have to drop to 0 for that.
Academia Nut said:
AN: Warning, hitting 0 Centralization will cause the government to reform as a City State Confederacy, likely triggering a civil war and societal collapse due to pre-existing tensions
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The possibly triggering greater susceptibility to the cascade failure is the reason to not drop centralization too fast.
 
Academia Nut said:
They feel backed into a corner. If they don't do this now while you are distracted with the Xohyssiri, you will dominate the lowlands and they will be consumed or marginalized shortly after.
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Unfortunate that we couldn't assuage their doubts but with 4 Diplo and a Nomad King I guess it was a long shot. What kind of fortifications (Wall actions) do we have at Redhills right now?
Academia Nut said:
The new charioteers would take some time to be ready, but the only major threats for the moment were in the south anyway, and there were other major garrisons to take care of any major situation that might come up.
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And given that Phygrif was smart enough to leave major garrisons behind what can be mobilized?
 
veekie said:
Okay, so relevant stats:
Stability 1 (confident)
Legitimacy 3 (max)
Centralization 5

We need to lose 2 points of Centralization for roads next turn, but we can't afford to go below 2 Centralization or things will get too dangerous.

End stats:
-Wealth 9-3 = 6
-Art 6-1-2-1 = 2
-Centralization(max 6, min 1): 5-2-1 = 2
-Economy 2+3+2-2 = 5
-Mysticism 14-2 = 12
-Stability 1-1 = 0
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Veekie, are you sure we shouldn't do Lesser assistance with the miners so Centralization stays at 3? Academia Nut has warned us that low centralization during this time could cause problems and we only need 2 Centralization for a new trails rush, not 3.
 
pblur said:
Any chance a salt gift would help alleviate their concerns?
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Probably not, our Lowlands Vassal is likely as big as they are now, as soon as we are able to integrate that land we have basically won that battle.

This is an existential matter for them, since once we get better we will just econ vamp them to death while warding them off with our superior numbers and weapons.
 
Academia Nut said:
As it was though, the timing of the discovery could have been better. Phygrif had punched through the territory of the Xohyssiri to Xohyr itself, and by all accounts had the entire city bottled up, their farms looted and unworked. The People were committed to the far south, which meant that Redhills was exposed. Rulwyna wasn't much of a general, but she knew that the Highlanders knew about the People's access to iron. If she were the Highlanders or Thunder Speakers, she would strike there with the objective of raiding the mine and attempting to capture the workers that the People jealously guarded, as even if ultimately driven off they could still keep the People from dominating them utterly in generations to come.
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Rulwyna doesn't sound like she has high martial skill. Her assessment may be neglecting major factors such as our ability to stand off attacks on the iron mines.
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

We do not want to drop down to Centralisation 2. We've been warned both mechanically and narratively that too much Centralisation loss would be bad. This gets us just enough to double Main Roads next turn. We should stop there.

Rulwyna said that the collapse would happen in part because of mine independence. Going for maximum decentralisation in that area would be a bad thing.
 
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pblur said:
Any chance a salt gift would help alleviate their concerns?
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No, they're looking at the situation and going "If they get dug in, they will be impossible to dislodge. Worse yet, they seem the least affected by this bad weather, so while we grow weaker by the year they'll just get stronger. We need to kick them out of the lowlands now, this is the only chance we get."

At this point the only reason they might not strike is if they felt that doing so would cause them to lose even faster.

Sivantic said:
@Academia Nut is this the only chance for Rulwyna to become Queen?
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No.
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Size
[X] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Greater assistance (-3 Art, -2 Centralization, Stallions very pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They should take in as many as they could (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, overcrowding)

Remember, Sacred Forest is a Land Project, so its completion means bonus Stability and Econ. If we can get our Econ out of the pits, we can spend a couple of turns digesting our new conquests. More, since we're likely to get attacked, extra Econ serves a dual purpose with We Have Reserves.

PUSH THE BUTTONS!
 
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
Adhoc vote count started by gutza1 on Jul 2, 2017 at 10:18 PM, finished with 66418 posts and 12 votes.
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