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I'm not saying we should have suicide bombed Asuma & those ANBU. But we recently lost one of our anchors of mental stability and have done something that no matter how you look at it is directly contrary to the ethos of the world we're trying to build. I think that's gonna have consequences.
You're saying 'we've done something'. What do you think we did?

We had zero options - zero pull, zero nothing. Our reasons did not convince Asuma, we had and have insufficient leverage over him to have forcibly changed his mind, and we lacked the martial abilities to kill him in a way that doesn't immediately result in our deaths and the deaths of our loved ones.

The thing that we did was take the only option which preserved our lives - notably, pretty valuable to the universe as a whole given that no one else is going to figure out the Great Seal and the Dragons.

The point of failure was being insufficiently cautious when testing EM initially. Everything after that has flowed.

No one is happy that a thousand (?) people are dead. But let's not act like this was a failure of moral bravery on our part. This was a failure of caution.

Maybe we won't make that mistake again.
 
You're saying 'we've done something'. What do you think we did?

We had zero options - zero pull, zero nothing. Our reasons did not convince Asuma, we had and have insufficient leverage over him to have forcibly changed his mind, and we lacked the martial abilities to kill him in a way that doesn't immediately result in our deaths and the deaths of our loved ones.

The thing that we did was take the only option which preserved our lives - notably, pretty valuable to the universe as a whole given that no one else is going to figure out the Great Seal and the Dragons.

The point of failure was being insufficiently cautious when testing EM initially. Everything after that has flowed.

No one is happy that a thousand (?) people are dead. But let's not act like this was a failure of moral bravery on our part. This was a failure of caution.

Maybe we won't make that mistake again.

I think choosing to do nothing is still a choice. And yes we can rationalize (heh) our actions to justify what we did and there are a lot of very smart people in this thread so I'm sure we'll come up with some good reasons but I still don't think that negates that we made a choice that led to an entire people being wiped out.
 
I think choosing to do nothing is still a choice. And yes we can rationalize (heh) our actions to justify what we did and there are a lot of very smart people in this thread so I'm sure we'll come up with some good reasons but I still don't think that negates that we made a choice that led to an entire people being wiped out.
I don't think that choices made when there are no viable alternatives are choices. We made a forced move.

The choice that we made was to test EM in the first place without adequate caution. Everything from that point onward was effectively predetermined.
 
And likely prevented the whole world from getting wiped out. (Well, by EM anyways)

And then Hazou can probably easily figure out that EM nuke effect is caused by temperature, and any sufficiently strong temperature jutsu would cause it. And if Hazou can figure it out so can others. And then where does that leave Shikamaru and Asuma? Not gonna lie that would be satisfyingly vindicative scene, and probably also cause Shikamaru to get an aneurysm, and it's probably a terrible idea for many other reasons. But still :(

Pretty oof update, in an emotional way.
 
And then Hazou can probably easily figure out that EM nuke effect is caused by temperature, and any sufficiently strong temperature jutsu would cause it. And if Hazou can figure it out so can others.
These guys still think spirits create ice. I don't think anyone is going to intuit this themselves without also having an EM variant to work with and even then Isan had it for hundreds of years and never noticed.

The worry is that a jonin would've leveled it to 40 for its area denial uses and stumbled upon a nuke. I don't think we've ever seen another Fire jutsu that can lower temperature rather than raise it, and I don't see them figuring this thought process out without it.

I also don't see it making Shikamaru and Asuma feel bad because EM was by far the fastest, easiest, and most uncontrollable way to achieve the effect. I'm not saying it's impossible someone else comes upon a similar technique but it doesn't invalidate their preventative measures to slow down the end of the world.
 
Also as upset as people are about Isan getting wiped out, I kind of agree with Shikamaru. If there were another viable way to suppress EM nuke then I'd support it over nuking Isan but tbh we really didn't have a good answer to preventing the apocalypse. IN MY OPINION, moral victory means nothing when it results in everyone dying.

Nah. Because everyone dying is a hypothesis backed by nothing and opposed by literally all of Isan's history and existence.
 
One Isanese ninja at the Chūnin Exams elected to trade the Elemental Mastery technique to a ninja from the Land of Wind, presumably upon being successfully manipulated with stories of the heat of the desert sun and the parallel cold of winter.

"The Wind Country ninja has been assassinated, but the risk profile is evident.
It just kind of struck me, with this line, how much of an actual shadowy conspiracy the anti-EM crew is. Gathering behind closed doors, we discuss a goal the rest of the world knows nothing about, cannot be allowed to know anything about, and we manipulate the world on scales great and small to achieve it. Arranging for someone's death is not only possible for us but a footnote, a matter of course as the world keeps turning and we discuss what must yet be done for our goals to become reality.

It's chilling, but also really cool in its own right. This is what it's like to be on the other side of that equation, without a shred of irony or comedy.
"This is my attempt at a full projection of the future of civilization, made with all reasonable resources available to me as a Clan Head of Leaf. Additional time and information may improve accuracy dramatically, but this is, to my knowledge, our best analysis at the moment. As you can see, the total annihilation of civilization is almost certain within a hundred years, with the lion's share of the risk coming from Elemental Mastery. Other lines represent other sources of existential risk, such as the Dragons whose median risk is only the vaguest of guesses, Akatsuki who might somehow attempt another world-altering ritual, or some unknown factor which I am currently unaware of, a category whose purpose I had reason to doubt until the Dragons enlightened me. I am now certain there are plenty. Only the small line at the bottom includes civilization's survival in any form."

"It's still going down, even at the end of the chart," Hazō said.

"Yes."
...and the reason why is as clear as it's ever been. We've known that civilization is on a downwards trend since near the beginning of the quest, from trends in agricultural records, but seeing it straight from Nara Shikamaru is another beast. This is the full picture, made with all the informational resources of Leaf and the deductive mind of a genius. You could quibble with the numbers but not, I think, truly disagree with them. Staring us right in the face, undeniable, are the long long odds we need to overcome to win our happy ending. The world has no obligation to be kind, and we cannot afford to hold back if we want to match it trial for trial. That is why our shadowy conspiracy exists, because it must exist if humanity is to have any hope at all. Because no matter how thoroughly the Sage ruined the world when he held it in the palm of his hand, we'll do whatever it takes to save humanity. On this, Asuma and Shikamaru and Hazou all agree without reserve.
"Then let me ask the real question," Hazō said. "What are your goals? How do you want to change the world we live in? There are many dangers. Rock, Cloud, Akatsuki. We need to rise to the challenge of facing them. And there are more abstract threats. Famine, disease, and chakra beasts. I intend to conquer those too. If you can't even look as high as a rank in a well-defined progression, what are you going to achieve in the real world?

"What's the point of power if you can't use it for something great?"
And yet, quite the contrast here. It was our ambition that discovered the true potential of Elemental Mastery in the first place, our hand that set all this into motion. For all our lofty ideals, Isan would still be alive right now if it weren't for our singleminded obsession with surpassing limits, breaking rules, and making the impossible possible. We never have anything but the best of intentions, but now there's a frozen crater where humans once lived.
They would never have been put into this situation without my desire to claim the Pangolin Scroll."

"I understand," Shikamaru said. "However, if you hadn't, we would have had no chance at all to intervene in this potential apocalypse. Would you rather have stayed far enough away to not be morally culpable, and remained ignorant as storms claimed the continent?
But yet our shadowy conspiracy exists. We could have collectively chosen to forget about Elemental Mastery, do nothing and let nature take its course. The reason why we didn't is obvious: given the state of the world, nature would not be merciful. We are no safer for our ignorance, and we cannot shirk moral culpability by feigning ignorance (indeed, the very concept of "moral culpability" sounds so academic when the question is the survival of humanity. Even if one chose to call this an evil of the highest order, unmitigated by any good intentions or mitigation of existential risks, to do nothing could only be counted as suicidal, and a profoundly selfish one that drags everyone down with you at that), so we-who-know gather the resources we have and do the best we can, for everyone's sake. We can only call ourselves fortunate for having the means to act in the first place, for having discovered the threat early enough to make a difference.
Chōji considered that for a moment. The exposed flesh of the log in the fireplace was starting to shrivel and blacken as it slowly caught fire atop the embers. "I think it would be better for it to be too easy. It may be callous, but sacrifices are always necessary. Not everyone can live. If the right choice is that evident, then you should just make it. But I'd be careful, too. I think if I made too many sacrifices because I was doing some math that made hard decisions seem easy, I would worry about whether I was making the right calls at all. If my choices seemed wrong despite the math telling me it was right, I'd doubt the math first."

Shikamaru sighed. "You cannot doubt math, Chōji. Some answers, at least, are objective."

"That's where you and I differ," Chōji said, tapping his head. "When you do addition, you always get the right answer. Me, I'm very bad at math."

"That's not the math's fault."

"I'll blame it anyway," Chōji said, as the log caught fire. "After all, if it wanted me to get the right answers, why did it have to make everything so complicated?"
I quite like how this comes across. It's something I've talked about before, where the flaw with "greater good" logic isn't structural - that one shouldn't in fact seek the greatest good they can - but procedural - that one might fail to accurately determine what the greatest good is in the first place. In particular, the stereotypical failure mode is a shortsighted leader who becomes numb to the costs, who forgets how much he sacrifices and becomes willing to drastically overpay for what he gains. A leader who feels no imperative to seek better alternatives, because they fail to see how the price might be made lesser than it already is. A leader who would throw countless to burn, valuing them as nothing, in exchange for infinitesimal gain towards his goal, which he counts as everything.

But the flaws here are all procedural, not structural. If you never forget the costs you pay, if you never overinflate the value to be gained, if you never stop looking for alternate options, if you make no flaws at all at any step of the process, it remains true that one should pursue the best outcome, the course of action with the greatest expected good. Choji knows this, and so he trusts Shikamaru, but he also knows the limits of his own mind, and how he cannot unconditionally trust his own value assessments. So, knowing the cost of this failure mode, he trusts in his intuition, his gut feeling, as failsafe. If he ever forgets the value of a life in his conscious calculations, his intuitions will remind him, and he will avoid making a tragic mistake.

It's a good way to look at it, and I very much like how Choji (and, by extension, Paperclipped) can articulate it from a position of impressions and emotions rather than cerebral logic. It's one thing to list the systems and processes that align the various incentives, it's another thing to hear it as a simple truth that resonates on a deeper level, that demands nothing but a bit of wisdom to understand.
By the time we hear of another instance of the hellstorm, it will likely already be too late, and our next warning will be a cold wind over Leaf.
For a moment, she forgot that it was a cold winter night at all, and her heart was filled with warmth.

The night did not care. The cold wind intensified.
Through the fog, she barely got the impression of a vortex of ice and water forming in the air above and slightly beyond them.

A heartbeat passed. She felt a spray of something over her face and clothes. It was cold beyond cold. She tried to move.

A heartbeat. The cold gave way to numbness. She could not escape.

A heartbeat. Numbness gave way to nothingness.

Her heart beat no more.
And lastly, I just have to remark that Elemental Mastery, in its full capacity as a weapon of mass destruction, has such a fascinating and unique aesthetic. A dreadful cold wind that heralds the end, violent and energetic despite being cold beyond belief. It's not a simple thing of heat or force like mundane WMDs, and even cataclysmic magics across various settings tend towards the graceful, an expanding wave of power inflicting its change upon the world as the threshold of the spell claims more territory (when it's not simply an instantaneous effect, blink-and-you-miss-it). This is a roiling turbulent chaos, more than a blizzard in every possible respect. You feel its presence as it begins to appear, the heat already seeping away from you before you know anything is amiss, and by the time you lay eyes on the source it's already far too late. I don't think I've seen an apocalyptic weapon quite like Elemental Mastery, and I'm loving the sheer style these descriptions of it exude.

All in all, an absolutely fantastic chapter. It's about such a grim topic, and in some ways more of a defeat than a victory, but I'm pretty sure when I look back and tally up my favourite chapters this will be up there near the top. It's definitely fitting that it's our 600th chapter, a defining milestone in the quest. Isan's been part of the quest for so long, and now the world will never look quite the same again.
 
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So, fellas, how about those estate plans?

[x] [Estate] Links
???/300 words
  • Kei/Mari/Gaku check all:
  • Design
    • Blend design elements from other clan compounds to represent the links to Leaf we have so far:
      • Uchiha, representing Hazou's ancestors.
      • Nara, representing Kei's marriage to Shikamaru.
      • Senju, representing Jiraiya's teammate (and Noburi's maybe-apprenticeship, but that's still early days).
      • Orochimaru's compound (he might feel slighted if we ref Tsunade but not him).
      • Sarutobi, representing Jiraiya's sensei.
      • Yamanaka, representing Hazou/Akane's relationship with Ino.
      • Aburame, representing our budding business relationship.
    • Architects are also encouraged to invent creative and modern design elements — we're a research clan, after all.
    • Hire Shikamaru-recommended KEI-architects from NFF.
  • Construction
    • Hazou creates quartz for highlights.
    • ES to add gold filigree to important buildings.
    • Mosaics where appropriate.
  • Details
    • Hide Koi pond for FOOM OPSEC training.
    • Bathhouses.
      • Add waterslides.
    • Great Hall suitable for larger (1000+ person) events.
      • Decorate with huge dragon skeleton carving.
      • Relief carvings of the summon clans we're contracted with.
    • Cafeteria.
    • School/library.
    • Clinic/Mental Health Offices
    • Connect up the aqueduct we built, and the sewers in preparation for when they're ready for deployment.
    • Gardens/Greenhouses for Phytosealing Botanical Gardens to come (phytosealing intentions are kept secret — as far as the architects are concerned, it's a normal botanical gardens).
      • Statue of Hashirama with unique plants flourishing from his ninjutsu.
      • Add fruit trees to supplement food supply.
    • ES relief carvings that resemble 2D/3D sealing on surfaces to hide real seals in the noise.
    • Subterranean complex.
      • Civilian evac shelters.
    • Lampposts.
      • Statues holding daybright seals?
    • Monument to the Lost [Temporarily in Another Path].
    • Statues.
      • Jiraiya colossus.
      • Other Gouketsu VIPs (incl Gaku, hehe)
      • Hazou's Uchiha ancestors pre-Kurosawa split (ask Sasuke for help).
 
Wouldn't that just make us more suspicious, given that it's Hazou?
If we confuse them enough with mixed signals, no one will be able to tell what's going on.

Enact plans for a long-term clan compound. Start stockpiling paper, ink, food, and other supplies necessary to make a getaway. Enter into more trade deals with Leaf clans. Recklessly insult some others with no regard to the future.
 
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(For clarification of the first-person pronouns: @Paperclipped wrote these answers and I'm posting them.)

Is this assessment of the difficulty before or after the TN reduction from having the research notes?
Oops, my bad. The difficulty assessment is supposed to be before the TN reduction from research notes, but I gave the difficulty assessment from after having access to the notes.

The actual difficulty assessment is "jōnin-level".

Nowadays, it's a little less clear. Would you mind clarifying the effect of the following? The information will be extremely helpful for determining the research priority of seals from Jiraiya's Hoard and Konoha missions like the one Asuma just assigned, not to mention whether or not we should attempt to collaborate with Leaf's other sealmasters to a greater extent.

Specifically, it would be helpful to know the research discount (and any other effects such as if it reveals the difficulty-level of a seal, for example) we get from:

having the original creator of a seal teach it to us
having the original creator's research notes on the seal
having someone (not the original creator) who knows the seal teach it to us
having someone's (not the original creator) research notes on the seal
having infused copies of the seal
having blanks of the seal
We will not be publishing any exact discounts. Instead, in rough (i.e., not exact) order of how useful it is to Hazō, going from least useful to most useful:

Having a blank of the seal
Having an IN download of the seal
Having research notes for the seal
Having someone that knows the seal actively guiding your research
 
[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
  • Hazou has a horrible thought: what if the hellstorm isn't caused by EM? What if wind spirits just hate being cold?
  • Research a seal capable of producing an effect that mimics that of Akane-level extreme cold in a small area. With Asuma's permission, test it somewhere safe to do so, turning off the seal if any of that weird cold liquid shows up.
  • Uh-oh.
  • "Sir, we may have a problem…"
 
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We will not be publishing any exact discounts. Instead, in rough (i.e., not exact) order of how useful it is to Hazō, going from least useful to most useful:

Having a blank of the seal
Having an IN download of the seal
Having research notes for the seal
Having someone that knows the seal actively guiding your research
Do these bonuses stack or do they replace each other? Also are they flat discounts or do they scale to the TN of the seal? (Feel free not to answer if that's too much information)
 
Obligatory inb4 every other hidden village already knew about the EM nukes and decided against genociding anyone because they did better math, and also they have progressed to using EM to power Stirling engines and industrialize.
That or the secret was already out and the Isan genocide just accelerated its use for more genociding
 
[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
  • Hazou has a horrible thought: what if the hellstorm isn't caused by EM? What if wind spirits just hate being cold?
  • Research a seal capable of producing an effect that mimics that of Akane-level extreme cold. With Asuma's permission, test it somewhere safe to do so, turning off the seal if any of that weird cold liquid shows up.
  • Uh-oh.
  • "Sir, we may have a problem…"
We should add in a small area

[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
 
[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
  • Hazou has a horrible thought: what if the hellstorm isn't caused by EM? What if wind spirits just hate being cold?
  • Research a seal capable of producing an effect that mimics that of Akane-level extreme cold. With Asuma's permission, test it somewhere safe to do so, turning off the seal if any of that weird cold liquid shows up.
  • Uh-oh.
  • "Sir, we may have a problem…"

We should add in a small area

[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
Voting is closed
 
[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch
  • Hazou has a horrible thought: what if the hellstorm isn't caused by EM? What if wind spirits just hate being cold?
  • Research a seal capable of producing an effect that mimics that of Akane-level extreme cold. With Asuma's permission, test it somewhere small and safe to do so, turning off the seal if any of that weird cold liquid shows up.
  • Uh-oh.
  • "Sir, we may have a problem…"
We should add in a small area

[x] Action Plan: Record Scratch

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