Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

[MadScientist]

If world peace were possible for humans, it would've been achieved, at least temporarily, long ago.

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To me, that looks implausible. There's nothing saying that the universe can't be structured in such a way that humans having world peace is psychologically impossible, but we simply don't know enough about psychology to make that claim with any sense of confidence.

For all we know, there are hundreds of billions of potential "world peace" scenarios that are entirely workable, but they rely on unknown unknowns, known unknowns that we will only be able to recognise as helpful once we know them, or simply random chance events that haven't happened yet and might not.

 

[Raxner]

To me, that looks implausible. There's nothing saying that the universe can't be structured in such a way that humans having world peace is psychologically impossible, but we simply don't know enough about psychology to make that claim with any sense of confidence.

For all we know, there are hundreds of billions of potential "world peace" scenarios that are entirely workable, but they rely on unknown unknowns, known unknowns that we will only be able to recognise as helpful once we know them, or simply random chance events that haven't happened yet and might not.

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I disagree. If a scenario was plausible or likely, it would have actually happened at some point in thousands of years of human history. If across a sample that consists of the entirety of human history a scenario did not occur, that is strong evidence that it is not plausible, and evidence (albeit weaker) that it is not possible.

Nah. Things are getting better all the time. Growth mindset, etc.

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In our world, technologies are getting better all the time because of accumulation of knowledge. Human nature is not getting better--and that includes me. I haven't lost one minute of sleep over the torture, slavery, and murder going on in places like North Korea and Syria, much less actually done anything to help. World peace is not a technological problem, it's a human nature problem.

I just don't want civilians to be murdered by chakra beast. So we either need to give them ways to defend themselves or exterminate all chakra beast in the world. One of these seems doable and the other does not

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Excellent point.

 

[gbear605]

Raxner, what do you mean by world peace? Because I could certainly imagine a world where some country (maybe France with Napoleon?) kept expanding until they controlled the whole world without having any major civil revolts, which by some definitions would be world peace. I would probably agree with you if you mean that there will still be people that kill others, for instance.

 

[MadScientist]

If a scenario was plausible or likely,

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I didn't say that. Only that I warn against so casually dismissing the possibility.

World peace is not a technological problem, it's a human nature problem.

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I can imagine scenarios where technology wins this game. For instance, just off the top of my head: Someone develops a well-meaning ASI, it uploads everyone, and then restricts their ability to change each other's code so that no one can harm each other. World peace is achieved immediately since no soldiers can do any damage to anyone else, and thus war no longer makes any sense as a practical concept.

 

[Raxner]

Raxner, what do you mean by world peace? Because I could certainly imagine a world where some country (maybe France with Napoleon?) kept expanding until they controlled the whole world without having any major civil revolts, which by some definitions would be world peace. I would probably agree with you if you mean that there will still be people that kill others, for instance.

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You could imagine it, but it hasn't actually happened, has it? Lots of people have tried--Alexander the Great, the Romans, Napoleon, etc. All failed. Apparently conquering everyone and making them play nice isn't as easy as it seems. That's probably why Kagome calls the Sage's brother "Dummy."

I didn't say that. Only that I warn against so casually dismissing the possibility.

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Fine, I oversold my point. World peace is not plausible and possibly not possible. Better? Because it is not plausible and is possibly impossible, we shouldn't focus on achieving it when we can achieve things that actually are plausible--like babies not being murdered because "eh, why not?"

I can imagine scenarios where technology wins this game. For instance, just off the top of my head: Someone develops a well-meaning ASI, it uploads everyone, and then restricts their ability to change each others code so that no one can harm each other. World peace is achieved immediately since no soldiers can do any damage to anyone else, and thus war no longer makes any sense as a practical concept.

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That's something that I cannot quite so easily dismiss, although I would again point out that it's unprecedented and therefore very possibly a lot harder than it looks. (For one, building an AI seems to be not trivial.) Also that it involves overriding human nature, not working within it, so doesn't really go against what I said earlier--that human nature is not conducive to world peace.

But it's clearly a lot further off for the Narutoverse than for our world, even assuming it is possible and plausible.

BTW, does anyone understand the mini-update? Who are Sen and Ui? Why does someone with claws (and therefore presumably not a human) have a summons? And why do we care about this fight?

 

[gbear605]

You could imagine it, but it hasn't actually happened, has it? Lots of people have tried--Alexander the Great, the Romans, Napoleon, etc. All failed. Apparently conquering everyone and making them play nice isn't as easy as it seems. That's probably why Kagome calls the Sage's brother "Dummy."

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I'm not a military expert, but I've heard that with Napoleon, it was basically just chance and a few bad decisions that he didn't conquer Russia, and from there move on to the rest of Eurasia and then the world. I'm not saying that it was likely, just that it could have happened.

EDIT: I see that you have ceded the possibility of world peace, so you can basically ignore this post.


Also, sorry for getting off-topic in this thread.

 

[hYGP]

Okay, everyone stop.
If someone could explain to me how to actually type invistext, that'd be great.
Raise your hand if, on balance, you want more people to die in the Elemental Nations.
Radvic put your hand down. You too, faflec. Selling your soul doesn't force you to become an immoral monster you know.
I didn't think so. So then the question is "do guns lead to more people alive?" I'm not sure they do, because centuries of ceaseless war is nothing to sneeze at, and I suspect it's going to be about that bad.
For anybody about to suggest that Europe didn't turn out that bad, it's because to my understanding, it was basically locked in a constant state of ceaseless war for ... the entire Dark Age. Japan got off light with only a century of ceaseless war.

 

[Raxner]

I'm not a military expert, but I've heard that with Napoleon, it was basically just chance and a few bad decisions that he didn't conquer Russia, and from there move on to the rest of Eurasia and then the world. I'm not saying that it was likely, just that it could have happened.

EDIT: I see that you have ceded the possibility of world peace, so you can basically ignore this post.

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One way or the other, he was going to have bad decisions, bad luck, or simply see his army's morale and his country's capacity for supporting war give out. The idea that France had the military capacity to conquer EVERYTHING strikes me as not realistic at all.

First conquer and control all of Europe, then all of Russia, then India and China (and a bunch of other countries), then cross the ocean and cross swords with America while he's far from his economic base and they're close to their own... Nah, that was never going to happen. (And all that's without even thinking about Africa, which is really big and hard to rule.)

I've ceded the possibility of world peace, but only as a very remote possibility. Something on the order of winning the lottery. I think that history's providing no example of a given phenomenon is a very strong piece of evidence that the phenomenon is really hard, and only somewhat weaker evidence that it is impossible.

 

[Inferno Vulpix]

I disagree. If a scenario was plausible or likely, it would have actually happened at some point in thousands of years of human history. If across a sample that consists of the entirety of human history a scenario did not occur, that is strong evidence that it is not plausible, and evidence (albeit weaker) that it is not possible.

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Keep in mind that logistics was horrifically difficult for large empires thousands of years ago. Even with Rome building roads for their chariots leading from Rome to everywhere in their empire, it still takes a long time to get that horse with your imperial decree from point A to point B. Without a means of reliable long-range high-speed communication, you de facto need high local autonomy. That means local governors with nigh-absolute power within their sub-borders, which does not breed loyal vassals.

Then add on that in order to stop such a local governor from ignoring your orders, you have to march your army across an entire continent, with your rapid-response being horse speed.

The simple fact is that for most of human history, the world was simply too big to conquer. You'd be utterly unable to actually exert your influence over the entire country, and with the upper brass of your empire being used to their total authority your court is going to be full of people ambitious and corrupt.

As technology advanced and we gained the ability to effectively communicate across these sorts of distances, what's the first thing we saw? Imperialism. Countries like Great Britain and Spain and Portugal went all around the world, growing empires. I'd argue that it's only fortuitous coincidence that European matters led to mass-independence from the colonies during moments of weakness in their mother countries and Imperialism in general going out of style.

The Elemental Nations doesn't have the telephone, sure, but it's also fairly small overall. Leaf can maintain relatively tight control over matters on the local scale, preventing authority bloat in the local governors, and if Hazou doesn't die then telephones are on our list sooner or later.

 

[Raxner]

Okay, everyone stop.


I didn't think so. So then the question is "do guns lead to more people alive?" I'm not sure they do, because centuries of ceaseless war is nothing to sneeze at, and I suspect it's going to be about that bad.

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You seem to be comparing centuries of ceaseless war to a nice peaceful Narutoverse. Is that what they have? Or do they have endless war, including three (or is it four?) world wars SO FAR plus ongoing genocide in the form of scorch squads? Plus casual murder whenever it's convenient for the ninjas because why not? To say nothing of people being killed by wretched chakra monsters because human beings are prey.

 

[faflec]

A question.

Suppose that world peace is, in fact, impossible.

Why wouldn't we still try to, if not bring about true peace, then significantly improve the lives of everyone anyway? More specifically, is there a significant difference between our actions should world peace be possible or impossible?

 

[Raxner]

The Elemental Nations doesn't have the telephone, sure, but it's also fairly small overall. Leaf can maintain relatively tight control over matters on the local scale, preventing authority bloat in the local governors, and if Hazou doesn't die then telephones are on our list sooner or later.

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So your solution is permanent Leaf Imperium over the EN? Seems neither likely nor desirable to me. Not likely because there are lots of other ninjas that are not stupid and will be trying very hard to find ways to throw off Leaf's yoke. Sooner or later--maybe it takes a couple of generations--they win.

Not desirable because I just can't fail to see the ninjas, including the rulers of Leaf, as essentially a vicious band of murdering psychopaths. I don't want that type having an imperium.

A question.

Suppose that world peace is, in fact, impossible.

Why wouldn't we still try to, if not bring about true peace, then significantly improve the lives of everyone anyway? More specifically, is there a significant difference between our actions should world peace be possible or impossible?

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I absolutely agree. That's why I want to give the civilians guns--in order to improve their lives, I think we must narrow the power gap between them and the ninjas. The chakra monsters are an annoyance; the ninjas are the real enemy.

No matter how much improved infrastructure we give them, so long as the ninjas dominate them as they do now, their lives will always depend on the whims or interests of the nearest ninja.

A question.

Suppose that world peace is, in fact, impossible.

Why wouldn't we still try to, if not bring about true peace, then significantly improve the lives of everyone anyway? More specifically, is there a significant difference between our actions should world peace be possible or impossible?

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I absolutely agree. That's why I want to give the civilians guns--in order to improve their lives, I think we must narrow the power gap between them and the ninjas. The chakra monsters are an annoyance; the ninjas are the real enemy.

Well, personally, I think that guns are likely to make everyone's lives worse

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I understand that you think that. I don't agree with you, for reasons explained above, but I understand that you think that.

 

[Cariyaga]

A question.

Suppose that world peace is, in fact, impossible.

Why wouldn't we still try to, if not bring about true peace, then significantly improve the lives of everyone anyway? More specifically, is there a significant difference between our actions should world peace be possible or impossible?

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Well, personally, I think that guns are likely to make everyone's lives worse

 

[Inferno Vulpix]

So your solution is permanent Leaf Imperium over the EN? Seems neither likely nor desirable to me. Not likely because there are lots of other ninjas that are not stupid and will be trying very hard to find ways to throw off Leaf's yoke. Sooner or later--maybe it takes a couple of generations--they win.

Not desirable because I just can't fail to see the ninjas, including the rulers of Leaf, as essentially a vicious band of murdering psychopaths. I don't want that type having an imperium.



I absolutely agree. That's why I want to give the civilians guns--in order to improve their lives, I think we must narrow the power gap between them and the ninjas. The chakra monsters are an annoyance; the ninjas are the real enemy.

No matter how much improved infrastructure we give them, so long as the ninjas dominate them as they do now, their lives will always depend on the whims or interests of the nearest ninja.

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They're still human, and behave according to human psychology. The EN are a place where morality takes second place to practicality, since villages which are anything but ruthless don't survive. Mercy is a luxury that only the overwhelmingly strong can afford, and since Leaf has not been overwhelmingly strong it only makes sense that they cannot afford mercy. I don't think, however, that this makes the likes of Jiraiya or Shikaku inherently merciless.

And just another bit of perspective: As I said earlier, the EN are small, so it's better to think of it as Japan, except without Korea or China nearby (Hidden Depths anyone?). Japan has a well-known historical situation where it unified and then proceeded to completely ignore everyone else and live prosperously for centuries, until they were forced out of isolation. I think that we can achieve at least a fraction of that success, which is equivalent to world peace until we find out what's beyond the EN.

 

[Oneiros]

Well, personally, I think that guns are likely to make everyone's lives worse

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MfD Is a death world. If you want to travel you need ninja protection. If you want to make new settlements you need ninja protection. This means chakra users have to be warriors. If we give civilians the ability to protect themselves from chakra beast this frees up chakra users to work as doctors and engineers.
I mean sure people might kill each other with guns but this let's us expand the population to grow our chakra punk society.

Honestly I don't really care if we give civilians tools to defend themselves or exterminate chakra beast. It's just that we can make guns now. Chakra beast on the other hand seem to just appear. So I have no idea how to go about killing all of them

 

[Raxner]

They're still human, and behave according to human psychology. The EN are a place where morality takes second place to practicality, since villages which are anything but ruthless don't survive. Mercy is a luxury that only the overwhelmingly strong can afford, and since Leaf has not been overwhelmingly strong it only makes sense that they cannot afford mercy. I don't think, however, that this makes the likes of Jiraiya or Shikaku inherently merciless.

And just another bit of perspective: As I said earlier, the EN are small, so it's better to think of it as Japan, except without Korea or China nearby (Hidden Depths anyone?). Japan has a well-known historical situation where it unified and then proceeded to completely ignore everyone else and live prosperously for centuries, until they were forced out of isolation. I think that we can achieve at least a fraction of that success, which is equivalent to world peace until we find out what's beyond the EN.

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It's true that Leaf has existed in a situation where ruthlessness is rewarded and possibly mandatory. I agree that it is possible that, given the chance, they'll be more decent.

However, I do not put a high probability on it. It seems to me that usually humans are treated about as well as they're able to demand. Unarmed civilians in a world of hyper-trained battle wizards are at a huge disadvantage and cannot demand anything. Armed non-wizards are still at a disadvantage, but less of one--therefore they're able to demand more.

I think comparing them to real-world Japan is a mistake. Real-world Japan did not have magic concentrated in the hands of the Emperor; yes, he had an army and a good deal of power, but he still had to take into account the possibility of an uprising by human beings that were potentially just as able to kill him as he was to kill them. That would not be true of Emperor Hokage Jiraiya.

Here's a thought that might be less controversial. Is getting rid of chakra possible? If so, would Hazo be able and willing to go down that path under any circumstances? (Yeah, I would love to get rid of chakra, maybe other participants in this discussion would, too, but that doesn't mean anything if it would be out of character for Hazo.)

 

[Cariyaga]

Personally, I think that we're more likely to achieve a lasting peace if there are fewer people with more power (obviously, with us being one of those).

 

[Raxner]

Personally, I think that we're more likely to achieve a lasting peace if there are fewer people with more power (obviously, with us being one of those).

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On what basis in the historical experience of mankind do you suggest that a situation of great power in few hands is conducive to the general happiness?

 

[faflec]

On what basis in the historical experience of mankind do you suggest that a situation of great power in few hands is conducive to the general happiness?

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The part where we haven't killed the world with our various WMDs yet?

 

[Cariyaga]

On what basis in the historical experience of mankind do you suggest that a situation of great power in few hands is conducive to the general happiness?

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Warring clans Japan versus Japan today.

 

[Oneiros]

Also if we give civilians seal based guns they are still dependent on ninjas so they can't use that tech on there own.

Edit: also if we do want to make guns we need to make a seal that can make objects spin

 

[Kalkin]

Okay, everyone stop.
If someone could explain to me how to actually type invistext, that'd be great.
Raise your hand if, on balance, you want more people to die in the Elemental Nations.
Radvic put your hand down. You too, faflec. Selling your soul doesn't force you to become an immoral monster you know.
I didn't think so. So then the question is "do guns lead to more people alive?" I'm not sure they do, because centuries of ceaseless war is nothing to sneeze at, and I suspect it's going to be about that bad.
For anybody about to suggest that Europe didn't turn out that bad, it's because to my understanding, it was basically locked in a constant state of ceaseless war for ... the entire Dark Age. Japan got off light with only a century of ceaseless war.

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color=transparent]Invisible text here[/color add starting and closing bracket

 

[Nejiranu]

So I am a longtime lurker and first time poster. This post is meant primarily to outline the practical problems that need to be worked out for several basic types of firearm to actually be made.

• Blunderbuss/Musket
• Requires propellant. Expanding gas is the most common at present but liquid being forced from an extradimensional location (modified macerator?) could be just as or more potent due to the lack of compressability.
• Needs a trigger that can be activated from outside the containment tube. Maybe some kind of tripwire? This would be something for those that have done seal research to figure out.

Thats essentially it. Ammo is obviously universal to all of these designs and at their core these simple firearms are nothing more than a tube, propellant and trigger. The problem children will be semi-automatic or automatic firearms where ammo feed and propellant ejection can't be done between shots by the user.

An all in one projectile/propellant combo would help immensely here as it allows us to draw on the massive repertoire of modern fire arm design.

That being said most of the gap between modern firearms and the simple ones provided above is actually in metallurgy. The spring steels and highly pressure resistant alloys needed for chambers and barrels simply do not exist in this world and may not for centuries due to the lack of consumer markets for ancilliary items that use these alloys.

We also need to kick off the industrial revolution here. It needs to occur to get precision parts so that maintenance is not prohibitively expensive. In addition if our goal is to arm civilians, mass production needs to be standardized to make these guns in any sort of meaningful number.

To be clear this post is not meant to discourage. To the contrary, it is meant to direct minds off of the relatively simple, though time consuming to research, prototype and towards mass production.

 

[nevereatcars]

One long time lurker to another, I don't think they could be discouraged by anything.

 

[Cariyaga]

Long time lurkers in general should feel welcome to contribute! Just because some of us are obsessive and check this thread every 3 minutes doesn't mean you have to, too!