Well, the debate has come and passed, so I figure it is time the 'state of the race' got an update. This won't be a regular feature, and will typically only come out in the days immediately preeceding/after the debates.
Once again, we start off with the front-runners. These haven't changed, but due to the rapid succession of events of the passed week, and Jeb! underperfomring badly at the debates, it is likely to.
SCOTT WALKER
Is effectively finished. A front-runner in name only, his failure to even show up for the first debate is likely fatal. If he'd gone, and put in an extremely good effort, he could have salvaged his campaign, but with only half-hearted defenses on twitter, and otherwise total silence from Team Walker, it is likely he will drop out in the coming weeks.
JEB! BUSH
Is doing even worse now the debates are over. His lackluster, meandering, and generally quite stiff performance on the debate stage let his chief rivals run rings around him. He needed a strong performance and absolutely did not get one. This will likely speed up the collapse of his already faltering campaign. While not out yet, the campaign is likely to start suffering from endorser flight, especially in earlier states.
DONALD J. TRUMP
Did....okay. Which is about what he needed. He made some healdines, got some sound bites, and another round of condemnation. All this will combine to keep his name in the news, and ensure people recognise him. The constant hostility will reinforce his nature as 'the one true anti-establishment candidate' but at the same time, his performance wasn't....energertic. Or dynamic. He won't have lost any support, but it is unlikely he has gained any ground.
After the frontrunners come the second-tier. With four highly polished and strong performances coming from the second tier of candidates, it is likely the front-runners will expand in number soon..
GEORGE E. PATAKI
Finishing in the top three has provided a much needed boost to George's campaign. Expectations were not exceptionally high for the rusty seventy year old, despite his rapidly growing campaign. His strong finish will likely help him leech support from both Walker (who he stole several endorsers from) and Jeb! who is likely to tank any day now. However, there is the looming spectre of the second amendement, and Pataki's record on it, which allowed Rand Paul to actually get in his only hit of the night.
RAND PAUL
Rand Paul picked a fight with one of the most seasoned debaters on stage, assuming his anti-establishment credability would help him. He was wrong. Chris Christie tore him apart and ate him with some chips and gravy. Paul's failling campaign will not be helped by that, though he can, more than most others in the race, claim he is the 'anti-pataki'. If an 'anyone but Pataki' movement gets off the ground before Iowa, he may stand a chance. Otherwise, he may join Jim Gilmore and Carly Fiorina in the bottom bin.
CHRIS CHRISTIE
Despite not making it into the top three, Christie crushed his target of the night, Rand Paul. He's generated a lot of positive coverage, and some pundits have remarked that the race is feeling distinctily Northern this year, given he, Pataki, and Trump all originate from the north of the United States.
MARCO RUBIO
Crowned the winner by most pundits after the August 6th debate, Rubio is riding a wave of positive publicity, and all the donations and media coverage that come with it. If he can carry through, it is likely he will be delivering the coup de grace to his former mentor, Jeb! Bush.
BEN CARSON
Ben had an....interesting....debate. By interesting, I mean boring. He gave some decently solid answers, but his general speaking style was a bit too....relaxed. All in all, he was utterly forgettable.
MIKE HUCKABEE
"The Huckster" is in trouble. His failure to stand out could see his polling start to drop, as Trump continues to eat up his support. He could start to hit fundraising troubles if he isn't careful.
TED CRUZ
Ted "Teddy" Cruz put in the second strongest performance on the night, his oppositional, aggressive, and extremely well-rehearsed style helping him run rings around his 'culture conservative' opponents. His only real misstep of the night was being the one to take the bullet for Scott Walker, which may leave him open for future attacks.
RICK PERRY
Well, Rick "Three Departments" Perry managed to do it again. He failed to make it into the main debate, being narrowly edged out by Ben Carson. Not only did he fail to make the main debate, but he managed to generate the second most shared moment of the undercard debate, when he repeated his 'Oops' gaffe. Twice.
Third tier candidates rarely amount to much, but if anything has been proven this year, people dismissed as 'failed candidates' can shoot up to prominence, as evidenced by George Pataki, and some are touting John Kasich as the new Pataki, who might break out of the bottom tier. Some are even saying he has bumped into the debate.
JOHN KASICH
Kasich is officially moving into the second tier, with a decent, if not outstanding main debate performance. While he'll need to do better if he is to steal Pataki's thunder.
BOBBY JINDAL
The kindest thing that can be said about Jindal's undercard debate performance was that it was an improvement on his state of union address. And that is the nicest thing that can be said about it.
CARLY FIORINA
Well, Fiorina did alright. Not well, but alright. She'll need to do better if she wants to move up the card, though. The only notable headline she generated was her criticisms of Hillary Clinton, which went over well.
LINDSEY GRAHAM
Graham did better than anyone expected, certainly better than anyone in the undercard debate. His relaxed, personable nature and jokes may, if not put him back in the race, put him back in the drivers seat as South Carolina's favourite son.
JIM GILMORE
Gilmore was tolerable, but not stand-out worthy during the undercard debate. If he'd qualified for the top-tier debate, that might've been acceptable, as it stands, he's not likely to amount to anything, baring a miracle.